By Martin Westerman and regional transit colleagues, May 10, 2024
Is it true that Metro Transit buses carry as many WS riders today as light rail will in 20 years?
Yes. Metro’s 2020 WS-downtown rider count = about 27,000 riders per day. Sound Transit’s Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) estimates light rail will carry about 27,000 daily riders.
Will my riding experience get worse with West Seattle light rail (WSLE)?
Yes. Buses carry you on a one seat, no-transfer ride between WS and downtown. Light rail will require 2-3 transfers, plus walks, escalator-elevator rides, and platform wait times.
How long does it take on Metro now to get to the middle of downtown from the Alaska Junction?
About 20 minutes, though traffic can cause it to take longer at times.
How long will it take on WSLE + bus to reach the middle downtown from Alaska Junction in 2042?
About 30 minutes, with transfers in West Seattle and SODO. Traffic may still be a factor in making bus transfers in 2035, so it is possible the ride could take longer.
So, whether WSLE gets built or not, the same number of people will ride West Seattle transit?
Yes. Whether it gets built (Build Option) or not (No Build Option), there’s virtually no difference. See Appendix 2 of Sound Transit’s Jan. 2022 Transportation Technical Report
-
ST has steadily reduced its original 2015 WS ridership estimate of near 40,000 /day, due to:
-
reduced transit ridership resulting from work from home (WFH), COVID, and employment center movement away from downtown,
-
ST’s plan to pull most of its future WS light rail ridership from current bus ridership, plus some extra from apartment and multi-family developments (transit-oriented development or TOD) along its WSLE route. Current, bus route TOD will be torn down, and replaced with new light rail TOD in 10-20 years.
-
-
Future transit technologies and changing work patterns will likely also impact ridership.
-
WS transit ridership may return if downtown job numbers increase. Between hybrid in-office + WFH arrangements, employees not returning to downtown in quantity, and office building owners considering converting many buildings to apartments, the ridership future is unclear.
Will I be able to take light rail directly to:
-
Football, baseball & soccer games? No. You’ll have to bus, drive, bike or walk to a West Seattle rail station, then get off and walk to stadiums from the SODO station, or transfer there to the CID, and walk to the games from King St. station
-
Ballard? No. West Seattle-Ballard will not be a single train line. You’ll have to transfer downtown.
Is the WSLE an equitable plan?
No. Sound Transit claims it’s serious about equity, but WSLE will serve the more affluent parts of West Seattle, while travel from less affluent, more diverse areas will require more transfers & take longer.
Plus, thousands of West Seattle people live in transit deserts with little or no convenient access (within a ¼ mile walk) to bus lines. Light rail will not address that.
Is it true that ridership on light rail has been much lower after the pandemic or is it increasing?
Yes. Lower during and after the pandemic, and not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels (see https://www.axios.com/2023/12/14/public-trasnportation-transit-america-recovery-pandemic-covid).
Also, a survey of 38 transit agencies worldwide (reported by the International Association of Public Transit) reported a 10% loss in the transit customer base because people formed new mobility habits during the pandemic, and most are not returning to regular use of urban buses and trains.
Will there be any parking lots near the three stations?
No. City of Seattle policy doesn’t allow Park & Ride lots near train stations, except Northgate. Anyone who drives will have to park on-street, or pay to park in existing lots and buildings.
Given West Seattle’s transit deserts, removal of businesses along convenient bus routes, and the remoteness of non-downtown employment and shopping centers, it’s unlikely light rail will decrease car usage and peak time traffic congestion.
Is West Seattle Link Extension (WSLE) the world’s most expensive urban rail project?
Almost. At nearly $1 billion per mile for 4 miles (Seattle Transit Blog), we’re #2 behind NYC’s subway upgrade ($2.8 billion /mile), but a bit ahead of San Francisco’s subway ($920 million / mile).
Who is paying for that?
You are. Through Sales Tax, MVET and Property Taxes, every household is paying about $1,765 a year, not adjusting for inflation, to subsidize Sound Transit (2023 ST budget, p. 28 – https://www.soundtransit.org/sites/default/files/documents/2023-financial-plan-proposed-budget-book.pdf)
You’re spending $4 billion on WSLE to serve just three light rail stations. It would make more sense to improve West Seattle roadways, transit bus, van and other services that would cover all ten square miles of the WS peninsula. The ST board has the authority to do that (see their names below).
Didn’t voters approve the WSBLE in the 2016 ST3 vote?
Not really. Voters approved a $1.7 billion ST3 transit improvement package, with Rapid Ride corridor improvements, a Ballard to West Seattle light rail proposal (WSBLE), a 2030 delivery date, and a WSBLE planning process. The original WS cost estimate has nearly doubled, the 2030 delivery date is now 2032, WSBLE has been separated into WS & B lines, and no Ballard or WS route has been chosen.
Did former ST CEO Peter Rogoff really say buses are a better transit option than light rail?
Yes. May 18, 2010, Boston: He said that financial difficulties facing mass transit networks are partially due to an “unnecessary focus” on rail expansion over bus improvements.
“Riders often want rail – but you can entice diehard rail riders onto a “special” bus, sometimes by just painting the bus a different color than the rest of the fleet. Busways are cheap. You can get a designated lane just by painting it. And with signal preemption, you can move a lot of people at very little cost compared to rail.”
So, is Sound Transit being totally honest with the public?
Good question. Sound Transit is not building what voters approved as ST3 in 2016:
-
-
It is altering proposed routes, plans, and station configurations, without filing any DEIS amendments, giving public notice, or collecting input for an updated public record.
-
Ticket prices cover less than 3% of ST’s actual costs for building and running the system
-
ST never intended to deliver a WS to Ballard line, but misled the public into expecting it
-
Sound Transit does not need a second downtown tunnel
-
Though ST has not settled on a West Seattle route, it is scaring property owners and businesses with notices of potential buyouts and teardowns along a supposed route.
-
Though ST gets federal funding, it doesn’t reference National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) guidelines or Federal Transportation Administration (FTA) rules that govern how they must structure their light rail developments.
-
At a November 2017 WS Transportation Coalition public meeting, ST representatives were asked what was Sound Transit’s Plan B if financial, disruptive technology or other factors arose between then and their expected 2030 delivery date. ST representative Cahill Ridge replied, “We have no Plan B.”
When leaders say ST is delivering “what the voters approved,” they’re not being totally honest.
But we can’t stop this process now, can we?
Yes, we can (see “If I am opposed” below). Contrary to what King County Executive Dow Constantine, Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell and other leaders say, the Sound Transit Board can choose the No Build option for WSBLE. Under federal law, a No Build option must be included in all project proposals. While it is rarely considered or studied seriously, it can be done now for WSBLE.
Under Section 2 of the ST3 package that voters approved, the board must reconsider projects that are infeasible, unaffordable and/or unbuildable. WSBLE is all three.
How many businesses and services will be forced to move or close?
At least 70, and probably more — from SODO to West Seattle. It depends on what alignment Sound Transit choses, and ST hasn’t chosen one. Here’s an estimate from blogger Marie McKinsey.
Which businesses will be gone?
All 37 in Jefferson Square (which will be torn down, replaced by the Junction station)– including Safeway & Bartell Drugs, plus more from the Junction down Avalon Way to the West Seattle Athletic Club, Uptown Espresso, Skylark Cafe and more in Delridge, and others along West Marginal Way. The list will be posted soon at Rethink The Link West Seattle.
The removal of Jefferson Square will also mean the loss of more than 92 apartments and 200 Junction parking spaces. So WSLE lose valuable businesses and services, jobs, parking and housing.
Property owners will get reimbursed 100% for lost property. Business owners may get between 30% and 60% of costs to close, move and re-open – depending on business type – from Sound Transit and possible Tenant Improvement Fund payouts. Those with “deep pockets” may survive. Those without will go out of business. (See comments to Sound Transit from business owners: https://www.soundtransit.org/sites/default/files/documents/wsble-deis-comment-letters-west-seattle-link-businesses-20220609.pdf).
How many business and service jobs will be lost if light rail is built into West Seattle?
At least 500 – all employees of businesses and services that must move or close.
How many houses will be torn down to make way for light rail in West Seattle?
Nobody knows. Sound Transit only estimates numbers of residents to be displaced, because it will bulldoze everything from houses in Delridge to apartments in Jefferson Square. Based on numbers of residential units to be bulldozed, the minimum count of displaced people is about 500.
Despite all the new housing units and apartments built in West Seattle this past decade, rent and purchase costs have increased, not decreased. That has pushed out less wealthy residents (see Seattle Times May 12 2024), and increased their needs to travel longer distances for work, shopping and entertainment – likely by car. Many have moved to other cities.
Will light rail create economic benefits for West Seattle?
Not really. While light rail does benefit some areas, West Seattle commerce and real estate markets have been bustling even during the pandemic. They suffered for 2.5 years while the West Seattle high bridge was closed, but they’ve come back.
Transit-oriented development (TOD) has been built along the Rapid Ride H and C, the 21 and 128 lines. Transit oriented development is dense housing — from apartments to houses + mothers-in-law + ADUs, built along transit routes. Sound Transit will tear it all down for the rail line, and not replace it for up to 10 years — which further deprives WS of affordable housing, and wastes public money.
If I am opposed to the construction of the West Seattle light rail extension, what can I do?
Take action three ways:
-
Email the Sound Transit board now, so all members get your message: 17 out of its 19 members are elected officials; four represent Seattle, two live in West Seattle **, and ALL are accountable to you. Our District 1 Seattle City Council Member Rob Saka is chair of the City Council’s transportation committee.
-
Then add specific messages to our local board members: City Council Member Daniel Strauss, Mayor Bruce Harrell, Council Member Rob Saka **, ST Board Chair Dow Constantine **, and King County representative Girmay Zahilay **. (** indicates lives in West Seattle).
-
You can also contact them by letter, phone and email, and urge (or demand) that they:
-
stand up for businesses, jobs, housing, communities, and the environment in Seattle.
-
Call for adopting “the pause” – the No Build Option listed in the DEIS, to “rethink the WS-Ballard Link.” The DEIS states explicitly that all other ST3 projects will proceed if No Build is chosen for WSBLE
-
Require ST to come up with cheaper, less destructive, lower carbon transit for West Seattle and Ballard than rail-only.
-
Support building out the regional rail network, and using other modes, including buses, bus rapid transit, and more for local connections
-
-
-
-
Where the light rail bridge crosses the Duwamish River and bulldozes Pigeon Point forest, it will obstruct the West Waterway and maritime traffic, impair maritime businesses, damage Duwamish River and Longfellow Creek ecosystems, and create a huge carbon footprint. The Port of Seattle opposes such impacts.
-
-
Email local business organizations that will be affected:
Once the final EIS is released, likely this summer, people will have 30 days to comment. At present, concerned people can visit rethinkthelink.org to join an email list.
Other FAQs:
Which roads will be blocked during construction?
West Seattle’s main roads north and south of the WS high bridge: Delridge Way SW, SW Avalon, 35th Ave. SW, and Fauntleroy Way SW will all be closed for long periods during the 5–8-year construction period. Seismic strengthening for the bridge over the Seattle Fault may extend road closures and make construction more expensive.
How long might those roads be closed?
Months at a minimum. Sound Transit hasn’t committed to construction dates and time frames, so it won’t specify road closure & detour periods. It has estimated that construction will take 5-8 years, so road closures will require anywhere from several months to more than a year each – which will impact freight deliveries, transit, emergency responders and commuters.
Is it true that rail stations are subject to increased crime levels or is that a myth?
Generally, a myth. Incidents are infrequent, and depend on the station and time of day.
Is WSBLE going to remove acres of West Seattle tree canopy?
Yes: three acres of north Pigeon Point Forest, plus 1-3 more acres of West Seattle green space, including a heron rookery, beaver, salmon and other species habitats on the Duwamish, Longfellow Creek and in Pigeon Point.
It will cut several more acres of forest and green space for the Ballard-downtown segment (see this map of Seattle Street trees. and learn more in the book Street Trees of Seattle by Taha Ebrahimi).
How much CO2 contributing to climate change will WSBLE construction produce?
About three million tons of carbon – plus additional CO2 and pollution Sound Transit has not calculated, from congested road traffic during 5-8 years of construction. The West Seattle link (WSLE) will generate an estimated 614,000 tons (DEIS table 4.2.6-3) – mostly from concrete mixing and use (about 0.9 pound of CO2 per pound of cement, or 400 lbs of CO2 per yard of concrete (3900 lbs)
The WSLE mitigation plan (in the DEIS) calls for light rail to reduce daily car trips over the WS bridge by about 400. But those drivers won’t all switch to riding light rail. An average 25 mpg gasoline car exhausts about 4 pounds of carbon on a 10-mile trip (e.g., West Seattle Junction to downtown), so it will take about 200 years for 400 fewer cars on the WS bridge to mitigate 614,000 tons of carbon.
It is true that Sound Transit has already cut about 15,000 trees for its north-south line?
Yes (count from TreePAC.org). Those trees would have absorbed an estimated 4 million tons of carbon a year (see Ebrahim above) – about the amount WSBLE construction and 5-8 years of traffic congestion would generate. Instead, Sound Transit will take up to 200 years to mitigate its carbon footprint with trains (see “average 25 mpg gasoline car” reference above).
Learn more about CO2 mitigation in this story from Yale Climate Connection also learn more about Seattle’s Tree Protection ordinance in an article from the Seattle Times here.
Will the light rail bridge over the Duwamish be 160 feet high and built over the Seattle Fault?
Yes. The bridge will run about two miles out from SODO, over the Seattle Fault earthquake zone, the concrete plant and marina, rise near the southern tip of Harbor Island to 160 feet (Coast Guard requirement) to cross the Duwamish River, then cut around Pigeon Point into Delridge.
Doesn’t the City of Seattle, King County Metro or Sound Transit’s WSBLE DEIS mention buses and BRT (bus rapid transit) as viable alternatives to light rail for West Seattle?
No. They decided rail is the future of urban transportation, though roadway buses carry more riders, often faster and more cheaply, on more flexible routes. The Puget Sound Regional Council 2050 forecast expects light rail to carry less than 3% of all regional trips, and public transit less than 8%.
Maybe local planners haven’t read that data. Or they think it’s more important to displace transit riders now so in 10 years they can increase residential and commercial density near rail stations (& hopefully increase ridership, though the data indicates otherwise).
Given the predicted growth of the Seattle area, are there alternatives to light rail that make sense?
Yes. King County Metro has committed to serving all West Seattle neighborhoods, and is planning to electrify its bus fleet. For neighborhoods not served with buses, Metro is deploying on-demand Metro Flex van service, and transitioning buses to electric power.
Private buses from large employers, and car and van pooling arrangements will continue. Bike lanes & work from home & remote workspaces will increase. Automated electric vehicles and artificial intelligence-driven traffic management technology are being deployed, and autonomous vehicle and other transportation technology advances are on the horizon.
if West Seattle Link Light Rail is not built, will Sound Transit still be able to get Federal Grants for non-light rail transit?
Yes. Federal Capital Investment Grants are available for expansion of high-capacity fixed-route bus transit.
Will No Build stop all of the ST3 projects?
No, it will only affect WSBLE. All other ST3 projects will proceed.
patr
Source link
