This analysis is by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts across a variety of industries and risk assets and compiled by Will Hares, Senior Industry Analyst. It appeared first on the Bloomberg terminal.
Out of the 19 reports written by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts and strategists on the war in Ukraine, following a year of hostilities, here is a handful of the research that piqued the interest of readers:
Russian Oil Output Falling Regardless of Cuts as Sanctions Bite
Russia’s plan to cut crude output by 500,000 barrels a day — a year after the invasion of Ukraine — is retaliation against sanctions, yet our analysis shows flows are set to fall irrespective of any voluntary cuts. Though Russia’s 2022 output was more resilient than our core scenario, with exports mostly redirected to Asia, significant discounts limited revenue.
Ukraine war shows need for mastering new tech and old armaments
Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion has illustrated the capabilities and limitations of the latest battlefield technology, as new tech such as drones improve intelligence and conduct attacks, but also the need for conventional weapons like anti-ship missiles, artillery and tanks. Militaries that use both creatively can improve the odds of success and extend the viability of traditional arms.
EU banks’ €50 billion Russia trap remains unsolved one year on
The US review of Raiffeisen’s Russian unit puts EU banks’ near-€50 billion of exposure in the country into focus, with mounting legal and reputational risks suggesting a walk-away scenario (including equity write-offs) is increasingly likely. The capital hit looks manageable, but shareholder returns may face supervisor scrutiny amid sanction threats.
Russia departures see profit heat turned up at Inditex, H&M, LPP
Inditex, H&M and LPP’s withdrawals from Russia — one of their biggest growth markets by sales, and even bigger for profit — sees them struggling to close the gap, with the former having left the door ajar for a possible return. Yet those retailers still in the country are facing boycotts from western neighbors, balancing profit and market-share losses.
Still believe in de-dollarization? FX regionalization plays out
The geopolitical upheaval associated with the nearly year-old war in Ukraine is keeping currency regionalization a topical theme, while another debt-ceiling blow-up in the US raises fresh questions about the dollar’s global dominance. An incomplete monetary union still hinders the euro, while the yuan’s role is on the rise, if from a very low base.
Bloomberg
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