Tropical storms and hurricanes are known to do damage, even be deadly in North Carolina from the coast to the low-lying areas along our rivers and even as far inland as Raleigh and Durham.
Every North Carolina resident and visitor should be weather aware – tracking the tropics for what is coming and preparing your home and family to weather any storm.
Hurricane season officially started on Saturday, June 1.
Is there anything in the tropics right now?
Things are starting to heat up in the tropics, with WRAL meteorologists watching multiple systems.
The good news is, the tropical system that was concerning us earlier is now far out in the Atlantic and no longer a threat.
“However, there’s a moderate rip current risk for our beaches on Sunday,” WRAL meteorologist Anthony Baglione said.
Looking ahead, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a developing system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
This area has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression by next week, but the current forecast suggests it will stay near or make landfall in Mexico.
This system could potentially affect Mexico but isn’t expected to have any impact on North Carolina.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs each year from June 1 to Nov. 30. The most active time is usually September through November, but it’s possible to see a hurricane make landfall any time of the year.
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Since the 1950s, hurricanes have been given names, to avoid confusion and streamline communications. There are six alphabetical lists of names, each a mix of traditional male and female names, so the same name may be used for different storms that happen years apart.
When a hurricane produces severe or devastating damage, that name is “retired” or removed from the list by the World Meteorological Organization.
The first names on the list for 2024 are Alberto, Beryl, Chris and Debby.
How many hurricanes will North Carolina get?
Over the past 30 years, an average hurricane season would see:
14 named storms – those of tropical storm strength or greater
7 hurricanes – Categories 1 through 5. Category 1 storms, with wind speeds of 74 to 95 mph, can still do damage to trees, toss outdoor furniture and knock out power.
3 major hurricanes – Category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of a minimum 111 mph. These are storms that can blow off roofs and flatten buildings.
NOAA forecasts busy hurricane season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) put out their tropical outlook and estimated we’ll see between 17 and 25 tropical storms this season.
The NOAA is forecasting 8 to 13 hurricanes this season and 4 to 7 major hurricanes, which is a Category 3 or higher.
“What that’s saying is, don’t necessarily pay close attention to the numbers, but we are expecting an active season headed this way,” WRAL meteorologist Anthony Baglione said.
The forecast for the 2024 hurricane season is for more storm activity than that norm, because of La Niña conditions. During a La Niña pattern, WRAL meteorologist Kat Campbell says, “It’s easier for storms to form and easier for them to strengthen.”
A La Niña pattern, means weaker easterly trade winds and below average vertical wind shear. Basically, in La Niña conditions, there is less wind to break up a tropical system as it organizes.
Although the 30-year average is for 14 named storms, we have exceeded that average in seven of the past 10 years.
In 2023, the Atlantic basin saw 20 named storms, which is the fourth-highest total since 1950.
The record was set in 2020, when there were 30 named storms. That same year there were 14 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes. A La Niña pattern dominated in that summer as well.
North Carolina has never had a category 5 hurricane make landfall. The state’s strongest hurricane to make landfall was Hurricane Hazel in 1954, which was a category 4 hurricane.
How to prepare for hurricane season
From late spring through the fall, there is always the chance that a hurricane will form in the Atlantic Ocean and impact North Carolina. While rough surf and overwash is a danger along the coast, hurricanes can bring torrential downpours, inland flooding, downed trees and even tornadoes to the Triangle.
Property owners should consider flood insurance and make sure to keep up home maintenance so that roofs, shingle and outdoor furniture are secure when high winds blow.
Make an emergency plan and communicate with each family member so that you can make a choice – to stay or go.
No matter where you live, you could lose power. It always pays to be prepared for a storm that can knock out power with a survival kit that includes non-perishable food, cash and plenty of clean, bottled water.
Worst hurricanes in North Carolina history
One of North Carolina’s most destructive hurricanes, Hurricane Fran in September 1996, blasted the Triangle with winds at near-hurricane strength. It left a landscape littered without trees in virtually every neighborhood and power outages that lasted for more than a week.
Hurricane Floyd in September 1999 inundated eastern North Carolina, including Rocky Mount, Wilson, Tarboro and Princeville, and put entire communities under water. The storm destroyed more than 8,000 homes and damaged 67,000 more.
In October 2016, Hurricane Matthew skirted the coast but generated devastating flooding across central and eastern North Carolina. The hurricane dumped more than a foot of rain 100 miles inland, swelling streams and rivers to levels above what Hurricane Floyd produced in 1999.
Hurricane Florence, in September 2018, brought a record 8.27-foot storm surge. Over the next three days, it produced up to 30 inches of rainfall over eastern North Carolina. Interstates 95 and 40 were both closed due to flooding, and 42 people died across the state.
Arguably, the most powerful hurricane in NC, Hurricane Hazel in October 1954 caused major flooding and damage as it made landfall. More than 1,000 people were killed, and it caused about $409 million in damage. The massive amount of destruction left by Hurricane Hazel earned it the nickname “the Bulldozer.”
