Image via National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Idalia, Category 4, caused extensive damage across the state, especially in North Florida, in August 2023.
It’s only May, and there are currently near record-setting water temperatures in the Atlantic, which is bad news for you if you’re reading this in Florida.
And, because warmer water equates to more intense storms, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are now predicting an “extraordinary” 2024 storm season.
Thursday morning, NOAA released a dire prediction for the upcoming storm season, calling for 17 to 25 named storms, and of those, eight to 13 are expected to become hurricanes.
NOAA says there’s an 85% probability of an above average hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to Nov. 30.
This “above average” prediction, which is also the “highest ever” for a May forecast, is based on a number of factors, including increasingly warming temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean as well as La Niña conditions forming in the Pacific, which can help storm formation by reducing wind shear.
According to the report, NOAA is calling for “17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).”
Besides La Niña and warmer than average water temps, the report also highlighted climate change as a major contributing factor.
“Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge,” said the report. “Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane.”
Notably, last week Gov. Ron DeSantis signed a bill scrubbing any mention of “climate change” from state law, resulting in state agencies rolling back renewable energy goals.
In its forecast, NOAA also released the list of potential storm names for the 2024 season. So, if you’re doing the math, there’s a pretty strong chance we’ll see the return of Hurricane Isaac.
This story first appeared in our sister publication Creative Loafing Tampa Bay.
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Colin Wolf
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