NHC shifts potential tropical development area further west of Carolinas

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RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) – As the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the tropics for potential development over the next seven days, models are trending away from the Carolinas.

As of Thursday morning, there remains a 60% chance of tropical development over the next week anywhere from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the far southwestern Atlantic Ocean, including near Florida. 

Disorganized showers and storms are currently over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands. According to the NHC forecasters, development is unlikely over the next two days, but environmental conditions will become a little more favorable by late weekend and early next week. 

What’s changed?

Since there’s no closed circulation, it’s tough for models to predict where a tropical system will develop. Late Wednesday, the European model shifted its position of a tropical system from off NC’s coast to the Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Panhandle. This is where the American (GFS) model has a potential tropical system developing, and possibly lingering.

The message here is to expect changes until a well-defined tropical system for models to track. 

Potential tracks 

A weaker, slower system would pull further to the west into the Gulf of Mexico. A stronger, faster system would pull further north. 

Even if impacts are to be felt in NC, weekend plans can go as planned because we wouldn’t see anything earlier than Monday or Tuesday. 

Check back for updates as the CBS 17 Storm Team continues to monitor trends in the tropics. 

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Laura Smith

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