Nearly 1 in 5 U.S. voters could be LGBTQ by 2040, data suggests

LGBTQ voters could soon make up nearly 20% of U.S. voters, according to new data released Thursday by the Human Rights Campaign.

According to a report by the HRC and Ohio’s Bowling Green State University, voters who identify as LGBTQ are poised to become one of the fastest-growing blocs in the country, which could drastically reshape the American electoral landscape.

Currently, about one in 10 voters in the U.S. are LGBTQ. After analyzing publicly available data, researchers projected that by 2030, that number will substantially increase, and about one in seven voters will be members of the LGBTQ community.

For 2040, that rate is expected to get even higher, with nearly one in five voters in the U.S. (17.8%) identifying as LGBTQ, according to the report, which used data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, as well as demographic projections from the University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.

“The LGBTQ+ voting bloc has been steadily growing and is on track to exponentially expand in the coming years, becoming one of the fastest growing voting constituencies in the country, wielding increasing influence in local, state, and federal elections,” Joni Madison, interim president of the HRC told the Daily News in a statement.

The data seem to follow an overall trend of an increasing number of people in the U.S. openly identifying as LGBTQ. Earlier this year, a Gallup poll showed that the number of U.S. adults who identify as LGBTQ had doubled over the past 10 years, with 7.1% of them self-identifying as LGBTQ — up from 5.6% last year, and 3.5% in 2012, when the analytics giant started keeping the data.

Researchers credit the younger generations, especially Generation Z, who were born between 1997 and 2003, for the increase: About one in four (27%) of Gen Z adults identify as LGBTQ.

More than one in 10 millennials, who were born between 1981 and 1996, also identify as LGBTQ. That’s compared to only 4.9% of adults born before 1934 and 1945 who said they were something other than heterosexual, according to the Gallup survey.

A 2020 report by the UCLA School of Law’s Williams Institute found that nearly 9 million LGBTQ adults were registered and eligible to vote in that year’s general election. Half of them were registered Democrats, 15% were Republicans and 22% said they were independent.

As the U.S. population continues to age, Millennials and Gen Z adults will increasingly account for larger shares of the population, including in Georgia, Texas, Arizona and Ohio, where the LGBTQ voting bloc is expected to increase by more than 86% by 2040.

“LGBTQ+ voters are already playing a pivotal role in elections, and in the coming years will fundamentally reshape the American electoral landscape — especially in battleground states and swing districts that are consequential to determining control of the Presidency and Congress,” Madison said.