Mortgage rates up following inflation report

For the second consecutive week, mortgage rates moved up, this time by 4 basis points, as the awaited consumer price index report found inflation running slightly hotter than some expected, Freddie Mac found.

The government-sponsored enterprise’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey found the 30-year fixed rate loan averaging 6.66% for Jan. 11, This compares with 6.62% for the prior week and 6.33% for the same time last year.

However, the 15-year FRM moved in the opposite direction, falling by 2 basis points to 5.87% from 5.89% on Jan. 4 and 5.52% on Jan. 12, 2023.

“Mortgage rates have not moved materially over the last three weeks and remain in the

mid-6% range, which has marginally increased homebuyer demand,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a press release. “Even this slight uptick in demand, combined with inventory that remains tight, continues to cause prices to rise faster than incomes, meaning affordability remains a major headwind for buyers.”

However, the Mortgage Bankers Association was bullish on home sales activities. 

“With rates expected to remain below 7% for the foreseeable future, MBA anticipates renewed activity in the housing market heading into the spring, especially if housing supply continues to rise,” Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO, said in a statement issued the day after the release of the Weekly Application Survey.

Since Jan. 5, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has closed above 4%. As of late morning on Jan. 11, following the CPI release, it was up nearly two basis points on the day to 4.05%.

Ksenia Potapov, an economist with First American Financial, noted the underlying price pressures driving inflation actually eased in December.

“Zoom out from the month-to-month fluctuations and this report largely suggests that inflation is continuing to moderate and that we are on the right track, so there’s not much for the Federal Reserve to do other than wait patiently,” Potapov said.

Zillow’s rate tracker had the 30-year FRM at 6.39% at noon on Thursday, up 2 basis points from the previous day and 6 basis points higher than the prior week’s 6.33%.

“The latest economic data has been stronger than expected, meaning fewer policy rate cuts than previously thought could be in the cards for 2024,” said Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans in a statement issued Wednesday night.