Joe Biden’s 2024 Prospects May Be Dicey. But There’s a Plan B: Non-Trump, GOP-Led Tickets in Swing States

Maybe it’s time to grab that hammer and break the glass.

If you’re a supporter of democracy—and Joe Biden—here’s why you should be concerned. No matter how rosy your rose-colored glasses are, it is unlikely that the president’s electoral prospects are going to get a whole lot better. Arguably, in the past two weeks he has had his most impressive stretch as commander in chief: flying into the heart of a war zone; showing unstinting strength, poise, and solidarity with Israel, one of America’s most important allies, at a crucial, tragic, and historic moment, while also highlighting the humanitarian crisis affecting Palestinian civilians in Gaza; and prompting typically teeth-gnashing Republicans to follow his lead.

And yet, a Suffolk University–USA Today poll last week showed Biden trailing Trump by as much as six points (49% to 43%) when would-be voters were asked which candidate they favored on foreign policy; by 11 points on the economy (52% to 41%), and by nine points on immigration (50% to 41%). Even more troubling for Democrats: Trump leads Biden in five key swing states according to a Bloomberg–Morning Consult poll: Arizona (by a 47-43 margin), Georgia (48 to 43), North Carolina (47 to 43), Pennsylvania (46 to 45), and Wisconsin (46 to 44).

What’s more, Biden’s prospects in these must-win states has only gotten worse, despite millions in ad spending. Hell, Biden’s approval rating among Democrats, according to Gallup, has dropped 11 points in the last month. Contributing to this big dip, as Axios noted, may well be Biden’s staunch stand on Israel, which does not necessarily sit well with many progressives, millennials, and Gen Z voters, not to mention Muslim and Arab American voters, whose ranks hold significant sway, particularly in Michigan, another state that is very much in play.

Granted, there is a lot of time between now and next November. And as former Biden chief of staff Ron Klain recently observed on The Circus—the weekly Showtime broadcast that I cohost—current polls may be lagging indicators, not having fully absorbed very recent developments.

But if the plan is to just assume things are going to improve for Biden—and worse for Trump (yeah, those indictments, and his “flip”-prone former cronies, have already blown a hole in his hull), then I think there’s a lot of reason for worry. Hope, as filmmaker James Cameron once advised, is not a strategy.