This analysis is by Bloomberg Intelligence Industry Analyst Nathan Naidu. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.
India’s young demographics, rising disposable income and urbanization makes its e-commerce segment ripe to take off, particularly the fashion sector, which accounts for most non-grocery retail spending. India’s online fashion gross sales could reach 2 trillion rupees ($24 billion) by 2025, we calculate.
Online shoppers could hit 400 million by 2025
India could add 200 million more online shoppers in the next four years, bringing the total closer to 400 million, and helping the country achieve a 25-30% e-commerce penetration rate vs. 2021’s low-teens, based on our calculations using Redseer data. About 60% of Indians will have access to the internet and smartphones by 2025, compared with the current 48% and 36% adoption, respectively. This bodes well for adoption of digital services such as online shopping, particularly those with well-developed mobile apps, given the country’s young demographics. (China had 73% internet and 60% smartphone penetration in 2021.)
Top internet platforms in India include Amazon, Walmart’s Flipkart and Myntra, Nykaa (FSN E-Commerce), EBay, Meesho, Reliance-backed Ajio and Tata Cliq.
India’s young demographics fuel online shoppers
World’s no. 2 population also the youngest
India’s population isn’t only the world’s second-largest, but also the youngest. That points to a large and growing number of citizens of working age, which should go hand-in-hand with the nation’s large population of Generation Z — people born in 1997-2012 — to grow middle-income households and pave the way for further adoption of online food and grocery delivery services. There are more than 700 million Indians aged under 30, the largest globally, vs. China’s 505 million and 128 million in the US, according to the United Nations. India also has the largest Gen Z population, with more people aged under 15 than any other country. Both factors should help fuel the country’s middle class and disposable income, particularly as Gen Zs, who are digital natives, join the nation’s workforce in the coming decades.
Indian population aged under 30 is world’s biggest
Fashion makes up most Indians’ non-grocery budget
Indian consumers might continue to spend the bulk of their non-grocery budget on fashion, powering the category’s rapid e-commerce adoption. This could propel the country’s online fashion retail sales up 34% a year from 2021-25 to 2 trillion rupees, following 25% annual average increases in the previous four years to 450 billion rupees, we calculate based on Redseer data. Apparel and footwear accounted for 55% of the country’s non-grocery retail sales in 2021, but just 16% of transactions were made online, according to Euromonitor. Beauty and personal care was the second-largest e-commerce segment (16%), followed by home-care products (6%) and luxury goods (6%). Fresh food made up almost 70% of India’s retail sales.
Walmart’s Flipkart and Myntra, Reliance-backed Ajio and Amazon are India’s leading fashion e-tailers.
Live commerce raising beauty’s online adoption
Rising disposable income, female workforce participation, and popularity and influence of social media — particularly in areas beyond tier-one cities — could fuel a 25% annual sales expansion of India’s online beauty and personal-care market (BPC) in 2021-25 to top 300 billion rupees, we calculate using Redseer data, after 60% yearly growth in the prior four years. E-tailers’ further push into live commerce via influencers, key opinion leaders (KOL), video live streaming, and more should go hand-in-hand with rising numbers of Gen Z and millennial consumers — the most active buyers of BPC products — to raise online adoption for the BPC market to 20-25% by 2025, up from 2021’s high-single digits.
Nykaa is India’s top BPC e-tailer, with more than one-third of the category’s gross sales in the country.
Bloomberg
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