How weather can influence voters on Election Day

There’s a reason Election Day is on the first Tuesday of November. And it has (just about) everything to do with the weather.

Election Day falls on the first Tuesday of November because it comes after the fall harvest and before winter’s harshest conditions typically move in.

And weather traditionally plays at least a marginal role in determining an election’s winner and loser.

Dating back to America’s first elections in the 1700s, weather has played a big role in election turnout. Day-long journeys to polling places are the reason that Election Day falls on a Tuesday, and you can probably imagine the challenges that befuddled voters trudging through horseback on mud-laden roads.

But even with modern conveniences of electricity and cars, lousy weather still plays an outsized part in determining the winners of an election.

And in the modern political era, lousier weather and lower voter turnout typically translates to sunnier results for Republicans.

A rainy sky is (traditionally) a Republican’s delight

Several studies in the modern political era point to the GOP’s advantage when bad weather goes up and turnout goes down.

Those studies also show that Republicans are typically higher turnout voters, meaning suppressed turnout because of bad weather tends to specifically reduce the number of Democratic or Democratic-leaning voter groups.

Why is that the case? So-called “peripheral voters,” who are less inclined to vote for a variety of reasons, tend to vote Democrat. If rain is a significant inconvenience, such as having to walk in it to a polling place because they don’t have transportation, they’ll skip voting.

The 2007 study “The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections” indicated that rain and snow slightly reduced turnout—and benefitted Republicans.

“We find that, when compared to normal conditions, rain significantly reduces voter participation by a rate of just less than 1% per inch, while an inch of snowfall decreases turnout by almost 0.5%,” said the 2007 study. “Poor weather is also shown to benefit the Republican Party’s vote share.”

That study also argued that different weather could have altered the outcomes of the 1960 and 2000 presidential elections.

Precipitation isn’t everything

Rain and snow get most of the attention, but another study that looked at the 2004 election explored other factors. It found that sunshine and mild temperatures lowered turnout overall. In fact, for every 10-degree rise in temperature, voting probability dropped by 0.6%.

The study’s author speculates some people chose to enjoy the weather while they could, rather than use that time to go vote.

That’s not always the case, though. Election Day 2020 was a beautiful day weather-wise with very little precipitation, with the exception of the Northeast and parts of the Pacific Northwest and Mountain West.

According the to U.S. Census Bureau, the 2020 presidential election had the highest voter turnout of the 21st Century. Although, most of the surge was due to an increase in mail-in voting.

The U.S. Census Bureau states that “in 2020, 43% of voters cast ballots by mail and another 26% voted in person before Election Day. In 2016, 21% mailed in their ballots and 19% voted in person prior to Election Day.”

What’s the outlook for 2024?

This year’s Election Day forecast could be more eventful than that of 2020. A sweeping cold front looks likely to bring rain, wind, and snow to some throughout the day. Let’s have a closer look.

In the Southeast, more mild weather is in the cards for Election Day. Highs will be warm and reach into the 80s for places like Florida, the Carolinas and Tennessee. There could be some rain across the Tennessee Valley.

As we go north, a system could pass through the Northeast Tuesday, bringing with it potential for rain, wind and even higher elevation snow.

Election Day forecast across the country.

In the Midwest and Plains is likely where our front will be located on Election Day. Showers and storms will be possible from Minnesota, Kansas and as far south as Texas. Temperatures will also range wildly depending on which side of the front you’ll be located.

Out in the West, mountain snow is possible in the Rockies. Toward the coast, more favorable weather is expected with cool, but dry conditions.

As we get closer to the date, we will have an even better idea of the forecast so be sure to keep checking in.

Check your local forecast here.

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