President Joe Biden is a bit occupied with life-and-death issues at the moment. He flew into a war zone for eight hours to comfort Israelis and to negotiate relief for Palestinians and to try to avert even larger tragedies, then returned to Washington to deliver a rare, powerful Oval Office speech explaining the stakes to Americans–an address also aimed at growing domestic divisions about the U.S. role in the Middle East.
That war, plus the one between Ukraine and Russia, will occupy a great deal of the president’s attention for the near future. But those conflicts are also likely to take up an increasing amount of space next year, as Biden runs for reelection–when he may well have more rivals criticizing him about foreign policy than just Donald Trump.
Third-party candidates are the first worry a Biden adviser mentions when asked to list general election uncertainties: “This is set up for a higher percentage than the 6% in 2016, in the Hillary-Trump election.” In 2020, seven states were decided by less than 3% of the vote, and the margins in battleground states this time around are likely to be nearly as thin. The number of ballots cast for a third-party candidate doesn’t need to be large to do outsize damage. In Pennsylvania in 2016, for instance, Trump edged Hillary Clinton by 44,292 votes—while Green Party candidate Jill Stein attracted 49,941 votes. “It certainly concerns me because I worked for Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania in 2016 and saw what Jill Stein was responsible for firsthand,” says Brendan McPhillips, who went on to run the state for Biden’s 2020 campaign and then managed John Fetterman’s winning 2022 Senate bid. “I hope anyone who is continuing with some quixotic vanity project of a third-party presidential run will pull their head out of their ass in the next few months.”
What’s been missing in the chatter is that the most prominent, most likely candidates would pose significantly different threats. Cornel West, the professor and activist, is coming at the president from the left, with a platform that includes universal basic income, nationalizing the fossil fuel industry, and reparations for Black Americans. The conventional wisdom has been that West would appeal to two constituencies where Biden is vulnerable: progressives and voters of color.
The dynamics are unlikely to be that simple. Democratic strategist Rebecca Pearcey thinks third parties ultimately won’t have much impact—particularly if the Biden campaign hammers home the election’s stakes. “I think voters realize if they are going to go vote for a third-party candidate, it’s essentially throwing their vote away,” says Pearcey, who was the political director for Elizabeth Warren’s 2020 run for the Democratic presidential nomination. “None of these independents are going to get to 270. I think what Biden will need to do, in particular with the challenges from the left, is ensure that people understand the gravity of their one vote: ‘We may not check all your boxes, but it is certainly better than having Donald Trump back in the White House.’”
West is a charismatic presence, and he’s sold a lot of books over the years, though is new to facing the kind of press scrutiny that comes with a presidential campaign. This week, he had to answer to taking money from Harlan Crow, the GOP megadonor linked to right-wing Supreme Court justice Clarence Thomas. West defended the donation, saying he is “unbought and unbossed.” Then he said he was giving Crow his money back. Meanwhile, West’s recent decision to ditch the Green Party, which has a strong record of getting its presidential candidates on ballots, could present a major challenge to winning votes. It’s the second time in four months West has left a political party and it contributes to the perception that he isn’t really a serious candidate. “The Biden White House was probably very glad to see that happen,” a Democratic strategist says.
Indeed, Biden’s camp, and most everyone else, is less sure what to make of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s prospects. Earlier this month, Kennedy dropped his Democratic bid to run as an independent, breaking from his famous family’s deep ties with the party. The environmental lawyer turned conspiracy theorist has demonstrated skill at raising (and spending) money, as has the super PAC supporting Kennedy, though running a national campaign as a true outsider will become exponentially more expensive. The larger question is about his appeal. “Kennedy is more puzzling,” says Mark Longabaugh, a Democratic strategist who played a key role in the surprisingly strong presidential run by Bernie Sanders. “He’s moved beyond any kind of ideological association with his family’s political history. In some ways he’s more threatening as an independent than he would have been in a Democratic primary. His market would seem to be disgruntled voters, voters who are fed up with the system.” In the most optimistic Bidenworld view, this means Kennedy helps them by pulling fringe voters away from Trump. (Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips is still flirting with running in the Democratic primary, but has yet to officially challenge Biden.)
Chris Smith
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