Orlando, Florida Local News
Formation chances rise as NHC monitors disturbance that could develop, impact Florida soon
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The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of interest in the Caribbean that some models say could have a path toward Florida.Area of interest in the Caribbean SeaAccording to the NHC, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week over the western/northwestern Caribbean Sea. As the system slowly starts to move north or northwest after that, officials say gradual development is possible. The NHC says a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week.While most major models agree on the low developing this weekend, there is some disagreement on where the system will go after that.Some model runs show the system staying weaker and moving west toward Texas and Mexico, while other model runs show the system getting stronger and moving north toward Florida.Because the low hasn’t even formed yet, it’s too early to know exactly where the system will head or how strong it will become. If the system forms, more data will become available and models will become stronger. For now, WESH 2’s First Warning Weather team is closely monitoring the area of interest and will bring you the latest updates. The NHC has raised formation chances for this system, saying there’s a medium (40%) chance of formation in the next week. In the next 48 hours, formation chances are nearly 0%.In addition to the Caribbean disturbance, the NHC is watching two other areas of interest, including the remnants of Gordon.GordonEven though Gordon is not expected to affect land, the NHC says it is still monitoring the system for potential development again.Showers and thunderstorms associated with Gordon, which was a tropical storm at one point, remain unorganized. However, officials say environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for development later this week, making it possible for a tropical depression or tropical storm to re-form.Formation chances are somewhat significant, holding at 20% for the next 48 hours and 40% for the next seven days.Models do not show Gordon impacting Florida.Central and Western Subtropical AtlanticThe NHC tagged a new area of interest on Thursday morning in the Atlantic Ocean. According to the NHC, the well-defined area of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the northwest of Gordon’s remnants has increasing shower and thunderstorm activity.Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, the NHC says, but some additional development is possible as the system meanders over the open waters. Formation chances remain low for now, sitting at 10% for the next 48 hours and 20% in the next seven days.>> RELATED: WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide 2024>> WATCH: Surviving the Season | 2024 Hurricane Special from WESH 2First Warning WeatherStay with WESH 2 online and on-air for the most accurate Central Florida weather forecast.RadarSevere Weather AlertsDownload the WESH 2 News app to get the most up-to-date weather alerts.The First Warning Weather team includes First Warning Chief Meteorologist Tony Mainolfi, Eric Burris, Kellianne Klass, Marquise Meda and Cam Tran.
The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of interest in the Caribbean that some models say could have a path toward Florida.
Area of interest in the Caribbean Sea
According to the NHC, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week over the western/northwestern Caribbean Sea. As the system slowly starts to move north or northwest after that, officials say gradual development is possible.
The NHC says a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week.
While most major models agree on the low developing this weekend, there is some disagreement on where the system will go after that.
Some model runs show the system staying weaker and moving west toward Texas and Mexico, while other model runs show the system getting stronger and moving north toward Florida.
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Because the low hasn’t even formed yet, it’s too early to know exactly where the system will head or how strong it will become. If the system forms, more data will become available and models will become stronger.
For now, WESH 2’s First Warning Weather team is closely monitoring the area of interest and will bring you the latest updates.
The NHC has raised formation chances for this system, saying there’s a medium (40%) chance of formation in the next week. In the next 48 hours, formation chances are nearly 0%.
In addition to the Caribbean disturbance, the NHC is watching two other areas of interest, including the remnants of Gordon.
Gordon
Even though Gordon is not expected to affect land, the NHC says it is still monitoring the system for potential development again.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with Gordon, which was a tropical storm at one point, remain unorganized. However, officials say environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for development later this week, making it possible for a tropical depression or tropical storm to re-form.
Formation chances are somewhat significant, holding at 20% for the next 48 hours and 40% for the next seven days.
Models do not show Gordon impacting Florida.
Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic
The NHC tagged a new area of interest on Thursday morning in the Atlantic Ocean.
According to the NHC, the well-defined area of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the northwest of Gordon’s remnants has increasing shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, the NHC says, but some additional development is possible as the system meanders over the open waters.
Formation chances remain low for now, sitting at 10% for the next 48 hours and 20% in the next seven days.
>> RELATED: WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide 2024
>> WATCH: Surviving the Season | 2024 Hurricane Special from WESH 2
First Warning Weather
Stay with WESH 2 online and on-air for the most accurate Central Florida weather forecast.
Download the WESH 2 News app to get the most up-to-date weather alerts.
The First Warning Weather team includes First Warning Chief Meteorologist Tony Mainolfi, Eric Burris, Kellianne Klass, Marquise Meda and Cam Tran.
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