FCM Projects Growing Demand, Stabilizing Prices for 2024

Global travel costs have stabilized, and business travel volumes and budgets are poised to increase in 2024, according to FCM Consulting’s Global Quarterly Trend Report published on Wednesday.

The report, based on FCM’s corporate booking data from July through September, indicates “that North America is leading the globe in many key areas including airline seat growth, passenger load factors and general travel heading into 2024,” according to FCM Consulting director for the Americas Ashley Gutermuth. U.S. travel demand particularly stands out in load factors as reported by the International Air Transport Association, with the U.S. domestic load factor at 84.5 percent in the third quarter, above the global domestic average of 83.5 percent, and North America’s international load factor at 87.7 percent, above the global average of 85.4 percent.

North America also is trending higher for airline seat capacity next year, according to FCM. Available seats in the first quarter of 2024 are expected to be 8 percent higher than 2019 levels, compared to a 5.3 percent increase globally, the report indicated.

FCM projects global airfares will increase between 3 percent and 7 percent next year compared with this year, driven in part by inflation.

In lodging, FCM reports that corporate average room rates have “plateaued” over the past six months. In North America, corporate rates declined 4 percent in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, with some of the largest declines in New York (down 6 percent) and Chicago (down 3 percent).

Car rental rates this year are up 4 percent globally compared with 2022, though rates in the U.S. are down 1 percent, according to FCM’s report. Next year, those increases should moderate to a 2 percent to 3 percent increase year over year, FCM said.

With overall travel demand growing, albeit at a more moderate pace than the earlier stages of the post-pandemic recovery, and prices stabilizing, “the data suggests that travel budgets and business travel will again increase in 2024, pending economic conditions and geopolitical issues,” according to FCM.