ECU poll shows Trump leading Harris by 1 point in NC; Stein leading Robinson by 6 points

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RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump remain locked in a tight race for North Carolina, while Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein has taken a noticeable lead against Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robison in the gubernatorial election, according to the latest poll from East Carolina University.

The new ECU poll, conducted Aug. 26-28, shows Trump leading Harris 48% to 47%, with 3% undecided and 2% planning to support another candidate. It also shows Stein leading Robinson 47% to 41%, with 11% undecided and 2% supporting another candidate. Stein previously only led Robinson by one point, 44% to 43%, in ECU’s June poll.

Both Democrats have leads among independents, women, and Black voters, while both Republicans have a lead among white voters in the new ECU poll. Harris leads Trump among independents 47% to 37%, among women 50% to 45%, and among Black voters 86% to 6%; Stein’s lead over Robinson is stronger among independents at 50% to 32% and among women at 50% to 36%, while less dominant, but still significant among Black voters at 81% to 9%. Trump leads Harris among white voters 64% to 33%, a stronger margin than Robinson’s 52% to 36% lead over Stein.

Inflation and/or the overall cost of living remains the most important issues for voters at 30%, although this marks a decrease from the 42% who said it was the most important issue in the last ECU poll. 22% identified the economy in general as the most important issue, 14% identified abortion, 13% identified border security, 4% identified affordability of health care, 3% identified climate change and/or the environment, and 3% identified violent crime and/or public safety.

North Carolina is among the states expected to decide the 2024 presidential election. Both the Harris-Walz and Trump-Vance campaigns have made frequent stops in the Tar Heel State, with Trump scheduled to address the Fraternal Order of Police in Charlotte on Friday, a week after Harris’ running mate, Minnesota governor Tim Walz, met with campaign staffers in Raleigh.

A Democratic presidential candidate has not won North Carolina since Barack Obama in 2008. Trump won North Carolina by 1.35% in 2020, the smallest margin among the states he carried.

A Republican has not won the North Carolina governor’s office since Pat McCrory in 2012. The race between Stein and Robinson is expected to set fundraising records.

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Matthew Sockol

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