This analysis is by Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Macro Strategist Mike McGlone. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.
Commodities dropping at a pace akin to the great financial crisis reflects global weakness and deflationary forces, and our scenario for a once-in-a-generation economic reset is drawing fuel from a Federal Reserve still tightening despite collapsing producer prices and bank deposits. It may be illogical to expect a sustained recovery in global demand with the largest economy leaning into recession. Supply elasticity and economic stress from last year’s commodity spikes — and most central banks still shrinking liquidity — may be in the early days
WTI crude oil and corn down about 30% on a 12-month basis to April 28 appear to be following the reverting rabbits — natural gas and lumber. We see gold and US Treasury bonds as potential top performers in 2023, notably if the stock market declines.
Deflation with plenty of fuel from commodities, producer prices
Plunging commodities and producer prices may portend deflation akin to July 2008. That was the lowest-ever reading for the Producer Price Index and the high-beta inflation gauge is well on the way toward similar this summer, about when the US economy may begin contracting.
Yes, commodities show plenty of economic risk
The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index (BCOM) down about 25% on a 12-month basis to April 28 is approaching the depths of the financial crisis with a key caveat: The Fed is still tightening. Our graphic shows the distortions of the pandemic and war, which pumped up liquidity and commodity prices, and the key question is what stops a reciprocal retreat? Looking at a commodities bottom, history suggests a lower plateau and long and variable lag to a period of central-bank easing. The Fed since 1960 has never hiked rates with the BCOM dropping so fast.
The graphic depicts the bust part of one of the biggest liquidity-fueled booms in history — which typically reverse with money and credit contraction. Commodities appear as a downward body in motion getting a big shove from rising rates.
PPI deflation, economic contraction set for July
Bloomberg Economics’ recession projections moving to July may coincide with a negative Producer Price Index. Pressured by commodities, the PPI is dropping at its fastest pace since 1948 and is on track for year-over-year (YoY) deflation when the June metric is released on July 13. It’s the lagging measures that the Fed is focused on, notably Personal Consumption Expenditures, that buoy our base case for a severe economic reset. The graphic shows the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index (BCOM) at almost minus 25% YoY at the end of April and approaching the roughly 40% drop — along with negative 6.9% PPI — from July 2008, the lowest ever.
We see parallels this summer, with the BCOM peaking in June 2022. Our graphic shows the propensity for the BCOM to bottom in recessions, in which we may see reciprocity to the boom.
Demand optimism vs. US recession; Crude, energy bear-market tilt
The US shift to net exporter and the propensity for crude oil price autocorrelation may portend early bear-market days for energy. We see little to stop crude from following the plunge in natural gas, particularly as the US tips toward recession and the Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy.
Bullish demand consensus could be the price risk
It may be illogical to expect a sharp recovery in global crude oil demand with the largest economy leaning into recession and central banks undertaking their most aggressive tightening campaign ever. Our graphic shows the bear-market inception when Brent crude peaked in 2008 and the potential for resumption, with a key outlier — consensus is for demand to come back strong. The one-year Brent future (CO13) highlights the tendency for lower highs and lows since the financial crisis. We see risks slanted toward more of the same downward price moves, notably if optimistic demand expectations don’t pan out.
“Priced in” is the risk for bulls given the propensity of most commodities to gravitate toward costs of production, as shown in US natural gas, particularly when spiking prices akin to 2022 stress consumers and economies.
What stops crude from following natural gas?
A key question at the end of April is what stops the mean-reversion process in energy prices that were too hot last year. Typically, markets drop sufficiently to curtail supply and buoy demand, and US natural gas falling 80% from the 2022 peak to about $2 a million British thermal units appears to have been enough to stabilize prices. It’s crude oil that’s still the main commodity and energy outlier, and we see gravity-pull risks toward about $40 a barrel in WTI. This level has been a pivot since Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. The US transition to net exporter has shifted the burden of demand and price buoyancy toward China and emerging markets.
But most of the world depends on the US for economic fuel, and the country heading toward recession with its central bank still tightening isn’t bullish for crude oil.
Bloomberg
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