Doomed Border-Security Deal Was a Bad Bet for Kyrsten Sinema

Kyrsten Sinema’s claim to fame is that she’s one of those “bipartisan deal-makers” that the Senate periodically produces, particularly in times of divided partisan control of Congress. Some of her Democratic constituents in Arizona tend to believe her wheeling and dealing is a betrayal of the progressive principles she once embraced with wealthy interests the beneficiaries more often than not. It’s no accident that she faced a strong 2024 primary challenge from Congressman Ruben Gallego before changing her partisan self-identification to “independent.”

Sinema is now approaching various legal and practical deadlines for a 2024 reelection run as an independent. But true to her “brand,” she’s been focused less on Arizona politics than on tense and lengthy Senate negotiations on a border-security deal that has become the condition precedent to passage of a foreign-aid package containing emergency assistance for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. It’s unclear whether she hoped the deal would be a valedictory accomplishment before she retires from the Senate or a trophy that would prove her worth on an issue important to her border state and justify her reelection. If the latter is the case, she may be overestimating voter consciousness of murky inside-the-Beltway machinations, as the Washington Post explains:

A Republican consultant familiar with the recent internal deliberations within Sinema’s tight-knit circle said that the team’s debate involves one central question: In today’s hyperpartisan environment, do voters value elected officials who bring both sides together to deliver legislation?

“If she is able to get a border security deal across, do you know she will have accomplished something that hasn’t been done in 30 years as a first-term senator,” the Republican asked. “But do voters even care?”

Maybe not so much, as limited polling of a projected three-way race showing Sinema trailing Gallego and Republican Kari Lake suggests. Perhaps announcement of a border-security deal could burnish her reputation and remind Arizonans of her rather unique standing in the Senate (with Joe Manchin retiring this year, Sinema really does stand alone in a position between the two parties; she’s always eager to use her leverage no matter how many former allies and current constituents she offends). But the really bad news for this deal-maker is that the deal itself is looking stillborn, as Politico reports:

As senators returned for a critical two-week sprint in D.C. before a lengthy recess, Republicans are starting to doubt whether the agreement — which would be tied to billions in foreign aid — can pass their chamber. GOP leaders first set out to find a compromise that could win a majority of Republican senators over, but that’s only grown more challenging as conservatives, Speaker Mike Johnson and former President Donald Trump hammer the deal.

Asked if the agreement appears to be on a path toward passing the Senate, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) replied: “It certainly doesn’t seem like it.”

“There are a number of our members who say, ‘Well, I’ll join a majority of the Republicans but if it doesn’t enjoy that sort of support, then count me out,’” Cornyn said in an interview. “The whole idea of passing something that the House won’t even take up is another challenge.”

So Sinema’s investment of precious time in a border-security deal is not going to produce pay dirt, it appears. Theoretically, she could run for reelection not as a regularly successful deal-maker but as a proponent of the spirit of compromise that ought to prevail in Congress but sometimes doesn’t because there just aren’t enough Kyrsten Sinemas in Washington. She has enough cash stored in her campaign account (nearly $11 million) to promote that message, though her fundraising has fallen into a hole and she has made few visible preparations for a tough campaign. Given her past Democratic affiliation and its own strong preference for incumbents, it’s possible Sinema could still get financial and logistical support from the Senate’s Democratic campaign committee, but if (as appears to be the case right now) Gallego looks like a better bet to keep Kari Lake out of the Senate, her former friends in that chamber will drop her decisively.

No one pretends to know Sinema’s plans for the rest of this year, but Arizona is going to be a red-hot battleground for both parties in the presidential and Senate contests, and her eccentric style of politics could clash with fierce partisan polarization. It’s a bad sign for her that she is dithering about running for reelection and can’t get visible results in the Senate. The odds are good that she will follow Manchin into retirement.