In the five months since April, former president Donald Trump has nearly doubled his lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is currently barely holding on to the second-place spot in the race for the GOP presidential nomination.
Trump, who currently faces four criminal indictments, is the first choice of nearly 6 in 10 GOP primary voters, according to a Wall Street Journal poll released Saturday. That’s up 11 points since April.
The results appear to show the GOP primary electorate consolidating around the former president in the wake of multiple indictments for attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election. 60% said each of the Trump indictments was politically motivated and meritless. Nearly four in five believe that Trump’s actions in the wake of the 2020 election were legitimate attempts to ensure the integrity of the vote; only 16% said his actions were illegal. Nearly half said Trump’s actions made them more likely to vote for him next November.
DeSantis’s precipitous decline is another major finding of the new poll. He’s lost over 11 points of support since April, and is barely squeaking out a lead over the rest of the primary field. “DeSantis collapsed,” said Democratic pollster Michael Bocian, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio. “The one candidate who back in April really seemed to be a potential contender, seemed to have a narrative to tell, has totally collapsed, and those votes went to Trump.”
The rest of the poll provides sobering news for the GOP primary field. Though former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy received positive responses for their August 23 debate performances, they still are languishing in the single digits. Mike Pence, whose criticism of his former running mate has escalated as Trump’s indictments piled up, has seen his favorability among the GOP primary electorate plummet: while 54% viewed him favorably in April, now 63% view him unfavorably. And the two candidates who have criticized Trump most vociferously—former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie—are at a combined 4%, with Christie the most unpopular candidate in the entire field.
With over three months until the Iowa caucuses, there’s still a lot of time for Trump’s overwhelming lead to shrink, especially as his various criminal cases proceed in court. Just last week, Judge Tanya Chutkan scheduled Trump’s federal election overturning case for March 4, 2024—one day before Super Tuesday, when 15 Republican primaries are scheduled. And yet, the poll found that over three-quarters of Trump supporters are fully committed to him and don’t see themselves changing their votes.
The poll also tested a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Biden and found the two in a dead heat, with 8% of overall voters undecided.
Jack McCordick
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