Democrats stockpile cash in key Senate and House races amid Biden’s struggles

Democratic congressional candidates stockpiled serious campaign cash over the last three months, new fundraising reports show, as the party contends with an increasingly well-funded GOP and looming questions about President Joe Biden’s strength at the top of the ticket. 

The financial landscape is positive for Democrats broadly — all but one of their leading candidates in the 10 most competitive Senate races outraised their likely Republican opponents, as did virtually every leading Democratic House candidate in seats rated as “toss ups” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. 

Still, Republicans feel good about where they are, as many of their key House candidates have been collecting cash for a tough fall, while some of their top Senate candidates have been tapping into their own personal wealth to keep pace with their opponents. And the overall Senate landscape remains friendly for the GOP.

But it’s all taking place against historic tumult, in the wake of the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump and as Democrats weigh whether Biden should be their presidential nominee — dramatic and difficult developments that could cast a long shadow on the November election. 

Democratic Senate candidates had been working to distance themselves from the top of the ticket even before Biden’s disastrous debate performance last month, and are expected to keep doing so. 

Last week, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana launched a TV ad saying he is “taking on everyone” to address rising costs, adding, “I voted to force the Biden administration to expand drilling, to bring down the price of energy, made drug companies lower the cost of prescription drugs.”

Republicans are expected to keep tying these vulnerable Democrats to Biden. Separating themselves from the top of the ticket is arguably a more pressing challenge for Tester and Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, the two Democratic senators running for re-election in states that Trump handily won in 2020.

Both senators are still dominating their Republican opponents in fundraising, with Brown raising $12.8 million to GOP businessman Bernie Moreno’s $4.4 million in the second quarter. Brown ended the period with more than twice as much money in his account. Meanwhile, Tester raised $10.6 million compared with $5.3 million, including a $1 million personal loan, for Republican Tim Sheehy. And Tester ended the quarter with a campaign account more than three times larger than Sheehy’s.

Sheehy, an entrepreneur, is among the wealthy Republican candidates who have tapped their own wallets to boost their campaigns. GOP Sen. Rick Scott of Florida loaned his campaign $5.6 million; Eric Hovde, a Republican running for the Senate in Wisconsin, loaned his campaign $5 million; and Dave McCormick, the Republican Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, loaned his campaign $3.1 million. 

While some Republicans have touted money brought in through other fundraising arms, the individual campaign reports filed Monday showed them still falling short of their Democratic opponents. In all but one of the 10 competitive races, Democratic Senate candidates had raised more than their GOP opponents, pulling in a combined $90.6 million to Republicans’ $64.4 million.

Democrats also ended June with more money in their accounts in all but two of those competitive races. The top Democrats ended the quarter with a combined $84.4 million on hand, compared with Republicans’ combined $51.1 million. 

“Battle tested Senate Democrats’ strong fundraising is once again a testament to the support they have earned from voters and grassroots supporters,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Tommy Garcia said in a statement. “While each day brings new revelations about Republican Senate candidates’ lies, baggage and disqualifying flaws, Senate Democrats are building winning campaigns and communicating with voters about how they are fighting for the priorities that matter most to hard working Americans.” 

Republicans haven’t been sweating Democrats’ consistent fundraising advantage too much, in part because of Biden’s own struggles in key Senate states. 

“They have to redefine themselves. They have to run away from Biden,” the National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman, Rep. Steve Daines, R-Mont., said last week when asked about Democratic fundraising. 

“I’m happy to pay for the gas for Air Force One to fly Joe Biden into any of these states like Montana and Ohio,” Daines added. “Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown want to keep thousands of miles away from Joe Biden, so their ads will try to provide that distance. But the reality of their voting record is they are tied to the hip.”

Battle for the House

In House races, Democrats have enjoyed a big fundraising boom since Trump took office in 2017, a dynamic that shows no signs of abating this election cycle. But Democrats in key races will also need to balance the fallout from Biden’s debate — after which 18 members of the House called on Biden to step down as the party’s nominee, including five in races rated competitive by the Cook Political Report. Two other swing-seat Democrats have said Trump will win the election, while another stopped just short of calling on Biden to drop out. 

A spokesman for the National Republican House Committee told NBC News that its polling over the past few months, in aggregate, shows House Democratic candidates with little daylight from Biden. 

On the fundraising front, 35 Democratic House candidates in seats rated competitive by the Cook Political Report raised $1 million in the second quarter, compared to 17 Republicans that did so in those races.

But incumbents of both parties appeared to have strong second-quarter showings. An NBC News analysis of these Cook-rated seats shows that incumbents, on average, raised funds at a similar clip in both parties, and have stockpiled similar amounts of cash on hand. The average Democratic incumbent raised $981,000 and had $2.5 million in cash on hand through June, compared to $940,000 raised and $2.4 million for Republicans. 

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Washington Democrat who won her election by less than 1 percentage point in 2022 in a district that Trump won by four points in 2020, according to data from Daily Kos Elections, was the top fundraiser in Cook’s “toss-up” seats. She raised $2.2 million and grew her cash reserves to more than $4 million. 

Rep. Mike Lawler, a New York Republican who also won by less than 1 point in 2022 in a district Biden carried by 10 points in 2020, raised $1.6 million, more than any other Republican incumbent in a “toss-up” seat.

But there’s a significant difference in fundraising by challengers looking to go on offense and flip seats for their party. 

The average House Democratic challenger in these Cook-rated races (among those who have formally clinched the nomination) raised almost $1.3 million last quarter and had $1.8 million banked away, while the average House Republican challenger who clinched the nomination raised less than $500,000 and also had about $500,000 in cash on hand. 

In six of the nine Cook “toss-up” seats with a Democratic incumbent, the Democrat raised more than double what the top Republican challenger collected in the second quarter. And in eight of those nine races, the Democratic incumbent had more than three times cash on hand than the top Republican. 

The Perez and Lawler seats provide a glimpse at that dynamic. Neither Republican running against Perez raised more than $310,000. But former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones, Lawler’s opponent in the fall, edged him out last quarter with a little over $1.6 million raised. 

One Republican strategist involved in House races this cycle compared GOP incumbent fundraising to “building a moat” to insulate themselves from well-funded Democratic challengers.

“We don’t need to have more money than the Democrats do — it’s a really strong environment and we have a really strong recruitment class,” the Republican strategist said, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “We just have to have enough to be competitive on the air, and that means not getting outspent 3-, 4-, 5-to-1 on the air, which was the dynamic in some of these races last cycle. We aren’t losing sleep if certain candidates are getting outraised in Q2 if their cash on hand is strong.” 

But the strategist went on to raise concerns about the GOP challengers who haven’t been able to find ways to raise money, arguing that “if you are completely unable to tell a story about yourself, you become whatever bad things the Democrats say about you on air.” 

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Viet Shelton touted the party’s strong fundraising in a statement to NBC News.

“House races have always been about the strength of our candidates, which is why you’re seeing such fundraising momentum from Democrats across the country,” Shelton said in a statement that included a link rounding up recent internal polling from both parties showing a mix of results across the competitive House seats.

“Voters know that Democrats deliver when in the majority while extreme Republicans simply sow chaos. It’s why recent polling has been showing Democrats outrunning their Republican opponents across the battleground,” Shelton added.