Credit platforms shaking off signs of industry maturation | Insights | Bloomberg Professional Services

This analysis is by Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Industry Analyst Paul Gulberg and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Associate Analyst Ethan L. Kaye. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.

Electronic trading momentum for the largest platforms — Tradeweb, Intercontinental Exchange, CME and MarketAxess, along with banks — is being fueled by recent market volatility and though the next leg higher may take time, we still believe that concerns of industry maturity are overblown. Normalizing industry activity could still spur market growth toward the high end of MarketAxess’ 2021-31 5-8% industry view.

Disclaimer: Bloomberg L.P., the parent of Bloomberg Intelligence, also offers one or more of the products or services identified in this research. Any views in this note are those of the author and Bloomberg Intelligence and don’t necessarily reflect those of Bloomberg L.P.

Electronic volume progressing, though more slowly

The long-term trend toward electronic fixed-income trading will continue to play out, though a market catalyst may be needed to push investment grade’s share above a yearlong range. Longer term, electronic trading is increasing as a percentage of the total, even amid elevated volatility, offering better transparency and liquidity vs. traditional methods at platforms such as Tradeweb, MarketAxess and CME. Electronic activity accounted for 38% of investment-grade corporate-bond trading in February vs. 35% a year prior, based on Coalition Greenwich data. High-yield corporates are now 33% electronic, up from 26% in February 2022.

All-to-all trading platforms, including MarketAxess’s Open Trading, during these times, are a particular beneficiary.

Growth trajectory suggests upside potential

Given we see plenty of opportunity for fixed-income platforms to boost revenue, the low end of MarketAxess’ projected compounded annual market growth rate (CAGR) of 5% from 2021-31 could be conservative once credit activity returns, and shouldn’t be viewed as a signal of a maturing market. The company forecasts that its addressable market could expand to $8.5 billion from $5 billion in the 10 years following its 2021 investor day, though given e-trading’s momentum, a normalization in credit activity may support a more aspirational 9% rate, an $11 billion market-revenue opportunity.

Based on the current addressable market for MarketAxess and its 2023 revenue estimates, it holds a 14% share, while Tradeweb’s may be about 24% and Intercontinental Exchange’s (ICE) 9%. ICE may have a 7% share of fixed-income data services.

Rates trading leads fixed-income, credit may gain

Fixed-income trading gains at the largest execution platforms were mixed, reflecting relative exposure to rates and muni-based products that have fared better than credit offerings amid rising interest rates and economic uncertainties. Credit electronification and automation continue to expand, and could drive activity in 2023. Tradeweb’s revenue, dominated by rates, climbed 10% in 2022, while MarketAxess’ rose 3% as high grade activity trailed in 2021-22 after leading the group in 2020. ICE’s fixed-income business rose 12% in 2022, bolstered by its execution and CDS components.

ICE’s fixed-income data and analytics growth trailed on a constant-currency basis in 2022, up 3% vs. 5% at Tradeweb and 9% at MarketAxess. We believe low- to mid-single-digit expansion is sustainable, given increasing institutional demand.

Bond trading less homogeneous than equities

With electronification of fixed-income asset classes likely still at an early stage of replacing phone-based transactions, new products and protocols may expand trading velocity. However, we’re cautious about comparing fixed-income assets to other classes. The bulk of active turnover is happening in on-the-run Treasuries and most liquid corporate bonds, so even though there’s room for growth, equity comparisons may not work.

Applying the midpoint of potential 5-8% addressable market growth to early-stage electronification products identified by MarketAxess may imply 66% penetration for US high-grade debt in nine years, 42% for US high yield and about 20% for emerging markets. However, we expect uneven growth across products and likely liquidity limitations, capping innovation and technological expansion.

Fixed-income trading jumped; data, analytics growing

ICE’s guidance for mid-single-digit 2023 recurring-revenue growth in Fixed Income and Data Services appears achievable after it posted 4% gains in 2022. The business continues to drive long-term growth for the exchange despite recent foreign-exchange headwinds. Momentum in trading execution and clearing could moderate after gaining 96% last year, supported by uptake in the muni platform. Credit-default-swap activity grew 61% last year, driven by volatility. ICE is using electronification to bring efficiencies to fixed-income markets, as it did with energy. Credit makes up 25-30% of revenue, with 80% of it recurring.

The 2015 IDC addition dramatically expanded analytics pricing and market-data services, along with rising data demand. Data and analytics climbed 3% in 2022, totaling over 50% of segment revenue.