Here’s something to think about: Bryce Harper hasn’t had a fully healthy season since 2021. That was the year he led all of the National League in doubles, slugging percentage, OPS and OPS+ en route to being named the National League’s Most Valuable Player for the second time in his career. Now, just three years later, Harper’s got a new position and a new lease on life. He enters 2024 as the Phillies’ full-time first baseman and the leader of a legitimate contender for the World Series. So, as Harper moves permanently to first base for the first time in his life after 10 seasons as an outfielder, what should we expect? Is another MVP award in the superstar’s near future?
Before we delve into MVP aspirations, there are a couple important things to note. One, Harper has been quietly excellent over the past two seasons–both of which have been riddled with strange injuries. In 2022, he made the All-Star team and hit .286/.364/.514 with 18 homers and 65 RBIs across 99 games, the middle of which were separated by a broken thumb after a wild fastball from Blake Snell. In 2023, after returning from Tommy John surgery in a record-setting time, he drove in 72 runs with 21 home runs and won the Silver Slugger at DH. Oh, and he’s been nothing short of excellent in the postseason.
To be clear, Harper doesn’t need to win an MVP to be labeled a success at first base. If he continues to perform offensively at the plate–both in the regular season and in October–and shows increased comfortability at his new position, all will be happy. The odds, as with nearly any player wishing to be crowned MVP, are against him. However, because this is Bryce Harper we’re talking about, we can’t rule it out. So, what would Harper have to do to win his third award?
At The Plate:
The last first baseman to be crowned MVP of any league, was the Cardinals’ Paul Goldschmidt in 2022. A seven-time All-Star with four Gold Glove and five silver slugger awards to his name, Goldschmidt is literally the Gold Standard for what a first baseman should be. In 2022, Goldschmidt put up a 7.8 WAR with 35 home runs and 115 RBIs with a .317 batting average. Like Harper in ‘21, Goldschmidt led the National League in slugging percentage, OPS and OPS+.
Moving to first base doesn’t necessarily make Harper’s quest for another MVP any easier. In 2021, Harper put up a WAR of 5.9. Last year, Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman put up a WAR of 6.5 across 161 games, swiping 23 bags and driving in 102 runs with an absurd slash line of .331/.410/.567. He finished third in MVP voting. Braves first baseman Matt Olson played in all 162 games and led the N.L. in home runs and RBI. He put up a WAR of 7.4 and finished 4th.
As gaudy as those numbers are, however, they are not completely out of the realm of what Harper can do. In 2015, Harper had his best statistical season, posting a 9.7 WAR with 44 home runs and 99 RBI en route to winning his first N.L. MVP. At just 31 years old, Harper is not past his physical prime. If he can stay healthy, there isn’t necessarily a ceiling on what he can do.
On The Field:
Defensively is where Harper has the most room for growth. Although no one expects him to win a Gold Glove, there is an expectation for him to be at least competent. Last year, he was just that–to a degree. In just 36 games at first, Harper ranked 8th in Outs Above Average, a range-based metric, tied with Freeman and Goldschmidt. In 303 innings he had just one error and totaled 1 Defensive Run Saved.
However, it wasn’t all peaches and cream. While Harper displayed his athleticism with some splashy plays, he also didn’t look completely comfortable at his position. There were instances where he would range too far for a ground ball, leaving the pitcher in a foot race with the batter to cover the bag. There were times when he wouldn’t cover the bunt correctly or place the wrong foot on the bag when receiving a throw from an infielder. Perhaps most significant were his struggles with fielding errant throws–an extremely difficult yet essential aspect of the position. A routine one-hop throw in the dirt from Trea Turner or Alec Bohm was not a guaranteed out, Harper often struggled with picking the ball cleanly whilst stretching out to receive the throw. It’s the hardest part of the position but also the most critical to getting your team off the field–players like Freeman or Goldschmidt do it with ease.
All in all, Harper’s success at first base won’t be judged by whether or not he wins another MVP. It will be defined by his ability to adapt to new circumstances and excel offensively amidst a positional change. Oh and winning a World Series wouldn’t hurt either.
Dylan Campbell
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