Category: Sports

Early in the season, it’s typical to hear a lot about the pace of certain stats. “Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua is on pace for 178 catches and 2,100 yards,” that sort of the thing. But most of the time when you see “on pace for” stats, you have no idea of which teams and players were on pace for similar things in the past.

Over time, performances usually regress toward the mean: Teams and players that started hot slow down, and those that initially struggled tend to improve. We don’t want to compare a performance after four games to what others have done in full 16- and 17-game seasons. We should compare it to what was done in the same span.

I do that with DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), explained further here. I’ve gone back and reran every season since 1978 to see what DVOA would have looked like as of a certain week in the past. Teams are rated solely through four games, and opponent adjustments are based only on opponents through four games.

I’ve written similar pieces in the past, but there aren’t many teams playing at a historic level this season. In particular, the best teams are not historically great.

The Seahawks are a surprising No. 1 in DVOA right now, led by the league’s top defense. But they are the No. 32 team since 1978 through four weeks, and they aren’t even one of the 100 top defenses. The Bills — the No. 1 offense this season — rank 71st among offenses since 1978.

What we do have this season are two particularly bad defenses, a weak start for the defending champions and Nacua threatening the receptions record. Let’s see where those performances through four games compare to history, and then look at what happened in the past to learn what might happen the rest of the season.

The Dallas Cowboys have the eighth-worst pass defense

Our first trend won’t surprise you if you’ve watched the Cowboys this season: They are horrendous at stopping opposing quarterbacks.

We didn’t see it in Week 1, as the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts had only 152 passing yards, but there was a hint when he completed 19 of 23 passes. The Giants’ Russell Wilson had 450 yards in a Week 2 overtime game, Bears QB Caleb Williams came alive with 298 yards and four touchdowns in Week 3; then the Packers’ Jordan Love had 337 yards in a Week 4 overtime tie.

The Cowboys have allowed the most passing yards (1,189 yards), passing touchdowns (10, tied with Chicago) and net yards per pass attempt (8.5, with no other team above 8.0) this season. As a result, Dallas ranks eighth among the worst pass defenses. (These numbers are positive because they represent positive success for the opposing offenses.)

It was expected that the Cowboys’ pass defense would be a problem after they traded edge rusher Micah Parsons before the season, but not this bad. Especially since Dallas has players in the secondary who have been very good in the past. Cornerback Trevon Diggs was a first-team All-Pro in 2021, and fellow CB DaRon Bland was a first-team All-Pro in 2023.

However, the pass rush is struggling as expected. The Cowboys currently rank 27th in pass rush win rate (30.4%). As for the back seven, new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus has the Cowboys playing more zone coverage than anyone else (84% of snaps, according to ESPN Research), but it’s not working.

What we can expect: There should be some regression to the mean here. No team has ever finished a full season with a pass defense as bad as what Dallas has shown so far.

The highest net yards per pass average allowed since 1978 was 8.2 by the 1981 Baltimore Colts. Since then, no team has allowed more than 8.0 net yards per pass through a full season. The 1981 Colts also had the worst pass defense DVOA ever, at 50.0%.

Most defenses on our top-10 list finished the season among the league’s worst pass defenses, although the 1984 Eagles improved to be roughly league average for the whole season. All of these teams also finished with losing records, except for the 1979 Jets. To find a team with a terrible pass defense in the first four games that finished the season with a winning record, you have to go all the way down to No. 34, the 2016 Detroit Lions. They finished 9-7 and lost to the Seahawks in the wild-card round.

If there’s any hope, it’s for future seasons. After all, the Cowboys have two picks in the first round of the 2026 draft that they can use to help rebuild their defense. The 2023 Broncos improved enough to have the No. 4 defense overall in 2024. But most of these pass defenses stayed bad all season and were bad the following year as well.

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The New York Giants have the third-worst run defense

This one might be a bit more of a surprise unless you had Omarion Hampton on your fantasy team last week.

The official NFL stats based on total yardage don’t have the Giants as the worst run defense — they currently rank fourth-worst with 612 yards allowed on the ground. But New York is tied with the Bears for last in yards per attempt (6.1). If we leave out quarterback scrambles and end-of-half kneel-downs, the Giants are allowing 6.2 yards per carry this season. Chicago is at 5.9, and no other team is above 5.5.

New York has allowed only one 100-yard rusher all season, Hampton in Week 4, but they’re allowing good efficiency to almost everyone who carries the rock against them.

It’s interesting to consider that the Giants currently rank 12th in run stop win rate (31.1%). But watch out when running backs get to the second level. Currently, the Giants are allowing 1.83 open-field yards — more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Only Chicago’s defense is worse.

What we can expect: The highest average yards per carry allowed since 1978 was 5.4 by the 2022 Chargers. The 1983 Houston Oilers have the worst run defense DVOA for a full season at 20.6%. So both of those numbers should improve for the Giants.

The run stop win rate suggests that the Giants’ run defense is playing better than the results would otherwise indicate. It’s likely that things will improve and New York does a better job of stopping opposing running backs.

And, as you can see from the table, teams with terrible early run defenses don’t necessarily finish the season as bad teams. Our top 10 has two teams with winning records, partly because the run defense is not as important as pass defense. The bigger problem is whether the Giants can be successful with a rookie quarterback in Jaxson Dart and no No. 1 wide receiver in Malik Nabers (torn ACL).

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We went through this last season with the Chiefs, as many stats showed the Chiefs were among the weakest 12-1 teams ever. We’re going to go through the same thing with the current reigning Super Bowl champion.

The Eagles rank only 17th in offensive DVOA and 14th in defensive DVOA, even after adjusting for the fact that they’ve played a difficult schedule. As a result, Philadelphia ranks 12th overall, which is below three different 2-2 teams (Washington, Kansas City and Denver).

Part of the issue here, as far as DVOA, is that the Eagles have benefited from three blocked kicks (two field goals and one punt), including two returned for touchdowns. These blocked kicks do not actually count in the DVOA formula because they are what we call “non-predictive plays.” I know that sounds strange when Philadelphia has talked about how it changed its formation to get those blocked field goals against the Rams. Blocked kicks take planning and skill. But they aren’t really indicative of future blocked kicks, even if you are fortunate enough to get three over two weeks.

But DVOA isn’t necessarily needed to show that the Eagles are abnormal for a 4-0 team. One of the remarkable things is this season is that Philadelphia has been outgained in yardage in all four wins. The only other undefeated team to be outgained in all four games was the 2012 Cardinals, and that team only won one more game all season.

What we can expect: Notice anything about our table of the weakest 4-0 teams? Four of the nine previous teams made it to the Super Bowl! And only those 2012 Cardinals finished with a losing record. That’s the thing about a 4-0 start: It sets you up for a successful season, even if your underlying stats aren’t great yet.

Like the 2024 Chiefs, the Eagles have won the benefit of the doubt with seasons of success and last year’s Lombardi Trophy. Yes, something has been off about their offense and defense so far, but it’s expected that the Eagles will play better. Philadelphia has already banked four wins against a difficult early schedule, and its upcoming opponents in October are a lot easier than its September opponents, including two games against rookie Jaxson Dart and the Malik Nabers-free Giants.

ESPN’s Football Power Index still ranks the Eagles fourth in the NFL. The ESPN playoff simulation gives them a 12.9% chance to win the Super Bowl, the best odds in the NFC. The Eagles should be fine despite their “slow start.”

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Two seasons ago, quarterback Jake Browning had to take over for an injured Joe Burrow with seven games left in the Bengals’ year. He went 4-3 and had a surprisingly strong QBR of 60.1. Many thought that when Burrow got injured this season, the Bengals might not be in much trouble with Browning filling the gap again.

That turned out to be very wrong. Browning has struggled, with a 42.4 QBR, and the Bengals have been destroyed in two straight losses. It also doesn’t help that their first two wins were close, and their defense has not been good (27th in DVOA). Only the Titans have a worse point differential than Cincinnati’s minus-58 this season.

What we can expect: Maybe the Bengals aren’t going to be quite this bad all season. They still have receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and Browning isn’t the worst quarterback in the league. (He’s 26th out of 33 qualifiers in QBR.) The Bengals have an average remaining strength of schedule based on the current DVOA of their future opponents.

However, only the 1992 Colts of the other 10 teams rebounded to a winning record — and they were without starting quarterback Jeff George for their first three games. The other teams all ended with double-digit losses. Without Burrow at quarterback for most (if not all) of the 2025 season, it’s hard to see the Bengals avoiding 10 or more losses.

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Puka Nacua is tied for the most receptions ever

Nacua started the season with 10 receptions for 130 yards against Houston. He had eight for 91 yards the next week against Tennessee, and 11 receptions for 112 yards in Week 3 against Philadelphia. And then in Week 4, Nacua grabbed 13 receptions for 170 yards against Indianapolis. (Note: This section does not include stats from the Rams’ Week 5 “Thursday Night Football” game.)

It’s worth noting that none of the other players who had the most receptions through four games set the record for total receptions in a season. Michael Thomas holds that record, but he did it in 2019 with 149 catches, not in 2018 when he started the season with 42 catches in four games. In 2019, Thomas had 34 catches through the first four games.

What we can expect: Nacua set the record for receptions by a rookie two seasons ago with 105 (since surpassed by Malik Nabers and Brock Bowers). Cooper Kupp had 145 receptions, the second-highest total ever, in this same offense in 2021. It is absolutely within reach for Nacua to set the record in a season if he plays all 17 games.

However, the schedule will get harder for the Rams’ offense. So far, Los Angeles has played an average schedule of opposing defenses. But in the final 13 games, only the Colts play a harder schedule of opposing defenses, according to current DVOA ratings.

The Week 5 NFL schedule for the 2025 season brings some exciting matchups.

Browns rookie QB Dillon Gabriel is making his NFL debut in London against the Vikings. Old teammates in Carolina, QBs Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, will face off again in the Bucs-Seahawks matchup. And Commanders QB Jayden Daniels makes his return from injury against the Chargers.

We have you covered with everything you need to know. Our NFL Nation reporters take you inside the locker room with the best thing they heard this week, and ESPN Research provides a key stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest. Plus, analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody shares fantasy football intel. We also have Football Power Index (FPI) matchup quality ratings (out of 100) and game projections, and three analysts — Pamela Maldonado, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game.

Let’s get into the full Week 5 slate, which culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Chiefs and Jaguars on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:
CLE-MIN | DEN-PHI | HOU-BAL
LV-IND | DAL-NYJ | MIA-CAR
NYG-NO | TB-SEA | TEN-ARI
WSH-LAC | DET-CIN | NE-BUF
KC-JAX

Thursday: SF 26, LAR 23 (OT)
Bye: ATL, CHI, GB, PIT

9:30 a.m. ET | NFL Network | Matchup rating: 35.2/100
ESPN BET: MIN -3.5 (35.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Browns: The Browns are turning to rookie QB Dillon Gabriel in hopes of jump-starting the league’s second-lowest-scoring offense (14 points per game). Gabriel’s first start comes in a bit of an unusual spot — he will become the first quarterback to make his first start in an international game — but Cleveland believes the third-round pick has prepared well for the moment. Expect the Browns to increase their use of rollouts and RPOs to take advantage of Gabriel’s mobility and accuracy. “[Gabriel] knows where to go with the ball. He knows what the coaching staff wants within the offense,” wide receiver Jerry Jeudy said. — Daniel Oyefusi

What we’re hearing on the Vikings: The Vikings spent their week in London sorting through options for an injury-ravaged offensive line, a particularly concerning development given the strength of the Browns’ defensive front. At the very least, the Vikings will be without RT Brian O’Neill (right knee), C Ryan Kelly (concussion) and LG Donovan Jackson (left wrist). Backup C Michael Jurgens (hamstring) sat out practice Wednesday and Thursday, making him very questionable for Sunday’s game. In a worst-case scenario, the Vikings could be left with their No. 3 center, their No. 3 left guard and their No. 2 right tackle against a defense that leads the NFL in pass rush win rate (56%) and run stop win rate (37.7%). — Kevin Seifert

Stat to know: The Browns have scored 17 or fewer points in nine straight games dating to last season, which is tied for the longest streak in franchise history. — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Browns DT Mason Graham will record his first full sack as a pro. It’s hard to get a better opportunity than this, as QB Carson Wentz has taken sacks at a massive 11.5% clip so far this season. — Walder

Injuries: Browns | Vikings

Fantasy nugget: Vikings RB Jordan Mason has had 16 or more touches in consecutive games with Aaron Jones Sr. (hamstring) out. The good news: He’s seeing heavy usage. The bad news: The Vikings’ offensive line has been devastated by injuries and faces a Browns defensive front that previously shut down the Ravens’ Derrick Henry and the Packers’ Josh Jacobs. Cleveland’s defense has allowed just 2.9 yards per carry and the second-fewest rushing yards to backs. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Vikings are 14-7 ATS (against the spread) in their past 21 road/neutral games. Read more. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s pick: Browns 24, Vikings 19
Moody’s pick: Vikings 20, Browns 14
Walder’s pick: Browns 18, Vikings 15
FPI prediction: MIN, 62.9% (by an average of 4.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Browns bench Flacco, turn to Gabriel as starting QB … Vikings’ plan for week between Dublin and London … Vikings’ O’Neill, Kelly injured against Steelers

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | Matchup rating: 77.8/100
ESPN BET: PHI -3.5 (43.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Broncos: QB Bo Nix has had many weekly exams in his time as the starter. And this week Nix’s patience will be tested as much as it ever has against an Eagles defense directed by coordinator Vic Fangio. Fangio, who again has two rookie starters on defense (LB Jihaad Campbell and S Andrew Mukuba), will force Nix to live with the underneath throws. Before last week’s win, Nix had not found much success pushing the ball downfield to kick-start the offense. Nix was more settled Monday night, with better footwork and more patience. That will be a necessity in this one as well, given Fangio figures to give Nix a steady diet of simulated pressures and coverage looks that morph after the snap. Fangio has been a particular challenge to quarterbacks in the red zone. — Jeff Legwold

What we’re hearing on the Eagles: The Eagles need to get WR A.J. Brown going. He was held to two catches for 7 yards on nine targets last week and created a stir with a cryptic tweet postgame. Brown has been held to 27 or fewer yards in three of four games. Unsurprisingly, the passing game ranks 31st in the NFL. “I see that we’re struggling and I’m a guy that wants the ball in those times when we can’t find a way. Give it to me,” Brown said Wednesday. — Tim McManus

Stat to know: The Broncos’ defense ranks first in QBR (40.5) and sacks (15), as well as second in pressures (62). — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Broncos edge Jonathon Cooper will record a sack against Eagles RT Lane Johnson. That’s a tall task considering the opposition, but Cooper has the fastest pass rush get-off in the NFL (among those with at least 50 pass rushes), crossing the line of scrimmage in 0.69 seconds, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

Injuries: Broncos | Eagles

Fantasy nugget: Eagles TE Dallas Goedert posted a season-high 19.7 fantasy points in Week 4, despite seeing just four targets. He had only two targets in Week 1, missed Week 2 and saw just two in Week 3, yet he has totaled 41.4 fantasy points. Even though the Broncos’ defense is tough, Denver has allowed at least 10 fantasy points to tight ends in two of its past three games. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 games as favorites. Read more. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s pick: Eagles 13, Broncos 10
Moody’s pick: Eagles 27, Broncos 23
Walder’s pick: Broncos 23, Eagles 21
FPI prediction: PHI, 61.2% (by an average of 4.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jones’ endless energy catalyst for Broncos’ defense … Inside the champagne problems of the Eagles offense

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | Matchup rating: 64.9/100
ESPN BET: HOU -2.5 (40.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Texans: The Texans know they’re going against a foe that they’ve struggled with. The Ravens have a 13-2 record against Houston, but coach DeMeco Ryans said, “The past is the past.” Wideout Nico Collins acknowledged the 31-2 blowout loss they suffered on Christmas to Baltimore but said it’s time to “turn the page.” — DJ Bien-Aime

What we’re hearing on the Ravens: The Ravens are 3-0 against Texans QB C.J. Stroud, holding him to an average of seven points per game. But this is expected to be a much different Baltimore defense Sunday. The Ravens have six defensive starters dealing with injuries, including Pro Bowlers in S Kyle Hamilton (groin), MLB Roquan Smith (hamstring) and CB Marlon Humphrey (calf). With all the new players filling in on defense, OLB Tavius Robinson said, “It’s just about doing a little extra in communication.” — Jamison Hensley

Stat to know: The Ravens have allowed 35 points in three of four games this season, tied for the most such games in a season in franchise history (1996 and 2021). — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Ravens RB Derrick Henry will record a season-high 22-plus rush attempts. The Texans have a ferocious pass rush but struggle to stop the run. QB Lamar Jackson (hamstring) could be out, so the Ravens are going to want to lean on the ground game. — Walder

Injuries: Texans | Ravens

Fantasy nugget: Texans RB Woody Marks capitalized on a favorable matchup against Tennessee last week, finishing with 21 touches and 27.9 fantasy points. It was the first game in which he out-touched Nick Chubb. He made it count, putting up an outstanding performance despite a Texans offensive line that ranks 24th in run block win rate (68.8%). The good news? Marks has another favorable matchup this week against a Ravens defense that has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game to backs (141.3). See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Texans are the only team to go under the total in all four games this season, and the Ravens are the only team to go over the total in every game. Read more. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s pick: Ravens 23, Texans 14
Moody’s pick: Ravens 23, Texans 20
Walder’s pick: Ravens 20, Texans 17
FPI prediction: BAL, 56.0% (by an average of 2.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Emergence of rookie RB Marks gives spark to Texans … How the Ravens got to 1-3 and where they go from here … Texans look to beat Ravens for first time since 2014 … What’s wrong with the 1-3 Ravens? Injuries, consistency, more

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1 p.m. ET | Fox | Matchup rating: 48.6/100
ESPN BET: IND -6.5 (47.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Raiders: The offensive line is coming off its best performance of the season, but it took a big hit in the process. After the unit allowed just three pressures while paving the way for rookie RB Ashton Jeanty to record 138 yards, it lost starting LT Kolton Miller to a high ankle sprain. Miller’s absence is untimely since the Colts are ranked eight in rushing yards allowed per game (96). Coach Pete Carroll is confident that backup OT Stone Forsythe can step up. “He started 14 games … and started on the left side four or five times. So, we’re confident that he can do the job,” Carroll said. “That’s why we went after him.” — Ryan McFadden

What we’re hearing on the Colts: Indianapolis has had one of the most efficient offenses this season, ranking fourth in scoring at 30.8 points per game. But that comes in spite of its concerning performance in the red zone, where the Colts have managed to score touchdowns only 47.4% of the time (25th in the NFL). They’ve had a rash of ill-timed penalties when in scoring position, and that has led to difficult down-and-distance situations. “We’ve got to get that cleaned up, and it’s just fundamentals and technique,” coach Shane Steichen said. “We’ll address it through practice this week.” — Stephen Holder

Stat to know: Colts rookie Tyler Warren leads all tight ends in receiving yards this season (263), which is the most for the position through four career games in the Super Bowl era. — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Raiders TE Brock Bowers will record under 30 receiving yards. Bowers hasn’t put up big numbers since injuring his knee in Week 1, and the Colts look like a particularly tough opponent. Only 14% of targets against Indianapolis have gone to tight ends, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. — Walder

Injuries: Raiders | Colts

Fantasy nugget: Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. has scored 15 or more fantasy points in three of four games this season while averaging 7.2 targets. He’s set up for a huge performance against a defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Raiders are 0-3 ATS in their past three games. Read more. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s pick: Colts 34, Raiders 28
Moody’s pick: Colts 34, Raiders 24
Walder’s pick: Colts 26, Raiders 21
FPI prediction: IND, 63.9% (by an average of 5.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Why Booker IV and the Raiders’ D-line will be critical to a win in Indianapolis … Howard abruptly retires, citing ‘family first’

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1 p.m. ET | Fox | Matchup rating: 39.7/100
ESPN BET: DAL -2.5 (47.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Cowboys: Didn’t the Cowboys come off a 40-point performance at home, playing at a winless team just two weeks ago? They did. And lost to the Bears in a listless performance. Now coming off a 40-point performance against the Packers, they face the winless Jets. In 2019, the Jets were also 0-4 when facing the Cowboys, and Dallas lost 24-22. The Cowboys can’t repeat what happened to the Bears or what happened in 2019. “We’re judged on wins. I’d say the consistency’s not been there,” coach Brian Schottenheimer said. “The thing we’ve got to do, we’ve got to learn how to finish and how to win.” — Todd Archer

What we’re hearing on the Jets: The gloves are going on — literally. On Thursday, coach Aaron Glenn wore a boxing glove during a ball-security drill, trying to punch out the ball. The Jets have lost a league-high six fumbles, which explains the emphasis in practice. The Jets are a mistake-prone team — minus-seven turnover differential and 40 penalties (tied-seventh most). They’re seeking to avoid their third 0-5 start in the past 30 years. — Rich Cimini

Stat to know: The Jets have allowed 25-plus points in every game this season (the only team in the NFL to do so). Another such game will be tied for the longest streak of allowing 25-plus points in a season in franchise history. — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Cowboys LB Jack Sanborn will lead the league in tackles this week. The Jets are running at an outrageous clip and are currently sporting a league-low minus-12% pass rate over expectation. As only light underdogs to Dallas, they very well could stick with the ground game for 60 minutes, inducing tons of tackling opportunities for Cowboys linebackers. — Walder

Injuries: Cowboys | Jets

Fantasy nugget: Jets QB Justin Fields finished with 27.1 fantasy points last week and now faces a defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Dallas has also given up the most rushing attempts and the fifth-highest rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is 21-14-1 ATS in his career as a road favorite (49-36-2 ATS overall as the favorite). Read more. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s pick: Jets 24, Cowboys 21
Moody’s pick: Jets 24, Cowboys 23
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 30, Jets 23
FPI prediction: DAL, 63.9% (by an average of 3.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Pickens keeps impressing Cowboys on, off the field … Jets RB Allen out indefinitely with knee injury … Prescott set Cowboys records but is unsatisfied with tie … Glenn hoping to avoid being first 0-5 Jets coach in Year 1

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1 p.m. ET | Fox | Matchup rating: 24.6/100
ESPN BET: MIA -1.5 (44.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Dolphins: Tyreek Hill (knee) will not return this season, but the Dolphins believe they still have a No. 1 receiver in Jaylen Waddle — who returns to that unquestioned role in Hill’s absence. Waddle was Miami’s leading receiver as a rookie in 2021, when he caught 104 passes for 1,015 yards and six touchdowns. Coach Mike McDaniel said the view of Waddle doesn’t change despite Hill’s injury. “I think we’ve looked at him as a wide receiver one,” McDaniel said. “I think that it’s not necessarily a change from the way we approach it the way we see it.” — Marcel Louis-Jacques

What we’re hearing on the Panthers: Coach Dave Canales likes to look at the rash of injuries that have contributed to a 1-3 record as an opportunity for someone else to step up. Unfortunately for him, nobody has. Perhaps it will be rookie WR Jimmy Horn Jr., who will play for the first time after being a healthy scratch the first four games. He brings speed. Or maybe it will be starting WR Xavier Legette, returning after missing two games with a hamstring injury, even though he struggled before the injury. There are plenty of opportunities around. — David Newton

Stat to know: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has a Total QBR of 19 (33rd) and averages 6.3 yards per attempt (25th) when facing zone coverage this season. The Panthers use zone coverage 68.8% of the time, the seventh-highest rate in the league this season. — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan will catch multiple passes of 15 air yards or more after having caught exactly one such pass in each of his first four games. The Dolphins’ defense is allowing 9.6 air yards per attempt, second most in the league. — Walder

Injuries: Dolphins | Panthers

Fantasy nugget: Since the Dolphins acquired Hill in 2022, 76% of QB Tagovailoa’s completions and 82% of his wide receiver yards have gone to Hill or Waddle. In the only game Miami has played without Hill during that span, Waddle caught eight passes for 142 yards and a touchdown. He should once again see plenty of targets against the Panthers. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Panthers have covered four straight games following a loss (2-0 ATS this season). They are 7-1 ATS in their past eight games following a loss. Read more. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s pick: Panthers 33, Dolphins 27
Moody’s pick: Panthers 31, Dolphins 28 
Walder’s pick: Panthers 23, Dolphins 20
FPI prediction: CAR, 51.3% (by an average of 0.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: WR Hill dislocates knee in win against Jets … Panthers seek answers after embarrassing loss to Patriots … Hill injury FAQ: Recovery timetable, his NFL future, how Miami will adapt

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | Matchup rating: 19.6/100
ESPN BET: NO -1.5 (41.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Giants: The Giants are pumping in crowd noise and working on communication at practice throughout the week, especially with this being rookie QB Jaxson Dart‘s first career road game. But Dart noted he played in the SEC and has played in a dome before. He’s not looking at the Superdome as any kind of special challenge. He’s more concerned with getting the ball out quicker, getting through his progressions better and avoiding sacks against a Saints defense that has gotten home on a respectable 10% of dropbacks. — Jordan Raanan

What we’re hearing on the Saints: Saints TEs Foster Moreau and Taysom Hill returned to practice this week for the first time since last season, when both sustained serious knee injuries. Though it’s unlikely either will play this weekend, coach Kellen Moore didn’t rule it out completely. Getting both players back will be a big boost to the offense. “With 108 seconds left in the 2024 season, I got a helmet to the outside of the knee on a five-step out route, and my offseason is canceled,” Moreau said. “It’s brutal, and that part of sports is one of the hardest parts. But what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. And I’ve had a hell of an offseason.” — Katherine Terrell

Stat to know: Giants RB Cam Skattebo has 181 rushing yards and 98 receiving yards through four career games. If he has a productive day Sunday, Skattebo would be the fourth Giants rookie since the 1970 merger with 200 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards through five career games. — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: The Giants will deliver double-digit quarterback hits in a win Sunday. After a bit of a slow start, edge rusher Abdul Carter looked dominant last week, and now the Giants face a Saints team that ranks 29th in pass block win rate (51.9%). — Walder

Injuries: Giants | Saints

Fantasy nugget: Dart finished with 19.8 fantasy points last week, with 11.4 of those points coming from rushing. This is a great matchup for Dart, Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton against a defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Saints QB Spencer Rattler is 0-10 outright and 2-8 ATS in his career as a starter. Read more. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s pick: Saints 23, Giants 20
Moody’s pick: Saints 20, Giants 18
Walder’s pick: Giants 23, Saints 16
FPI prediction: NO, 53.5% (by an average of 1.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Dart on Saints draft snub: ‘Always a chip on your shoulder’ … Saints ‘got to find a way to get a win’ with Giants looming

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4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Matchup rating: 57.7/100
ESPN BET: SEA -3.5 (45.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Buccaneers: The Bucs have surrendered touchdowns on the first defensive possession in three of their four games, but have only scored on the first offensive possession once. That is a big reason why they’ve had to come from behind in the final two minutes of their games, which have all been decided by one score or less. QB Baker Mayfield said of this week’s game: “[We’ve] got to start faster, [we’ve] got to be the aggressor, not wait [for] whether it’s chippy or we get hit in the mouth once. We’ve got to come out swinging.” — Jenna Laine

What we’re hearing on the Seahawks: Coach Mike Macdonald said that by the Seahawks’ in-house metrics, Mayfield is probably the best quarterback in the NFL right now in terms of extended-play situations. “That’s something you have to deal with, but he also plays on time,” Macdonald said. “He’s extremely accurate, he’s got a great arm, and then when he extends plays, obviously he’s a great competitor.” Mayfield has the eighth-fastest average time before throw at 2.68 seconds. — Brady Henderson

Stat to know: The Bucs have scored and allowed an identical 97 points so far this season. — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Seahawks edge Boye Mafe will record a 25% pass rush win rate — or better. When DeMarcus Lawrence (quadriceps) got hurt in last week’s game, Mafe moved to play more opposite the right tackle. That’s where you want to be against the Bucs right now, with Charlie Heck (80% pass block win rate) currently stationed there. Assuming Lawrence either misses the game or plays less, that should set up Mafe to make a pass-rushing impact. — Walder

Injuries: Buccaneers | Seahawks

Fantasy nugget: Seahawks QB Sam Darnold has averaged 16.2 fantasy points over his past three games in an offense that ranks fourth in rushing attempts per game. Seattle may need to lean on the passing game against a defensive front that allows the fewest rushing yards to running backs, but Tampa Bay also gives up the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bucs are 6-1 ATS after a loss since the start of last season, and 11-4 ATS after a loss with Mayfield (since 2023). Read more. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s pick: Seahawks 35, Buccaneers 25
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 26, Buccaneers 24
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 27, Buccaneers 17
FPI prediction: SEA, 53.9% (by an average of 1.5 points)

Matchup must-read: Seahawks sign Darnold’s praises after game-winning drive

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4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Matchup rating: 25.2/100
ESPN BET: ARI -7.5 (42.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Titans: The Titans’ defense will do its best to keep Cardinals QB Kyler Murray from breaking off long runs by design or circumstance. Defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson said the pass rush has to be coordinated and disciplined to make sure the defense doesn’t leave an escape lane for Murray to leak through. “He tries to get outside the pocket, they have some options with him,” Wilson said. “Things like that with the run pass option and all those things, so we got to keep ’em in a well, we got to contain ’em.” — Turron Davenport

What we’re hearing on the Cardinals: Murray is trying to keep his head down and focus on the present with the state of the Cardinals’ offense, which struggled mightily in seven of its past eight quarters. Aside from the fourth quarter in a loss to the Seahawks last Thursday night, Arizona’s offense struggled to move the ball and score in Weeks 3 and 4. But Murray said it’s hard and the “human in me” wants to look at the totality of Arizona’s issues, but focusing on today takes discipline, he said. “I try not to look at the big picture, because s— gets you get frustrated looking at the big picture,” Murray said. — Josh Weinfuss

Stat to know: Titans QB Cam Ward has been sacked an NFL-high 17 times this season, while the Cardinals rank fifth in pass rush win rate this season (47%). — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Cardinals RB Michael Carter will record 80 or more rushing yards. It’s hard to know exactly how the Cardinals’ backfield work will shake out in light of Trey Benson‘s move to IR, but whoever gets the rush attempts should be put in a great position for success: The Titans rank fourth worst in terms of EPA allowed per opponent rush (.09). — Walder

Injuries: Titans | Cardinals

Fantasy nugget: The Cardinals’ backfield is thin with Benson (knee) and James Conner out. Emari Demercado is now positioned to lead the Cardinals’ running back committee. He’s firmly on the flex radar in Week 5 against a Titans defense that allows the fourth-most fantasy points to backs. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Titans are 3-18 ATS under Brian Callahan, the worst record for any coach in the Super Bowl era (min. five games). Read more. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s pick: Cardinals 28, Titans 23
Moody’s pick: Cardinals 27, Titans 16
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 28, Titans 14
FPI prediction: ARI, 73.4% (by an average of 9.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Despite 0-4 start, Titans still believe they can right ship … Cardinals need to fill void in injury-depleted running back room … Ward vents frustration after Titans blanked, fall to 0-4 … Harrison keeping trust in self amid inconsistencies

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4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | Matchup rating: 71.3/100
ESPN BET: LAC -2.5 (48.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Commanders: Washington’s defense continues to be plagued by explosive plays, having allowed an NFL-worst 28 pass plays of 15 yards or more. It has been a combination of mistakes: communication and players abandoning assignments trying to make a big play. They’ll have to guard Chargers QB Justin Herbert, who ranks 11th with 20 pass plays of at least 15 yards. Of those plays, he has completed seven with three touchdowns to WR Quentin Johnston. “If we clean up the explosive passes, we’re playing solid,” said defensive coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. “Right now we’re playing sloppy. We will clean it up.” — John Keim

What we’re hearing on the Chargers: After a game where Herbert was hit 13 times and sacked twice, the Chargers could be without two starting offensive linemen again Sunday. LT Joe Alt (ankle) is doubtful for Sunday, and RG Mekhi Becton (concussion) didn’t play last week. “Just go out there and execute and do what you’ve been trained to do,” Herbert said of his message to backups. “They’re playmakers, too.” — Kris Rhim

Stat to know: This will be a staunch matchup in the red zone. The Commanders have scored touchdowns on seven of nine such drives (78%). The Chargers have allowed touchdowns on four of 13 such drives (31%). — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels will complete fewer than 10 passes to wide receivers. Chargers CBs Donte Jackson and Tarheeb Still both rank in the top five in lowest yards per coverage snap allowed among outside corners with at least 100 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That will make throwing outside difficult in any circumstance, and even more with Washington missing WR Terry McLaurin (quadriceps) because of injury. — Walder

Injuries: Commanders | Chargers

Fantasy nugget: Herbert struggled to capitalize in a favorable matchup against the Giants, finishing with a season-low 12.5 fantasy points. However, his fortunes (and those of fantasy managers) could change against the Commanders, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Herbert also has an elite trio of receivers in Johnston, Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen, who should help him bounce back. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Three straight Chargers games have gone under the total. Read more. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s pick: Chargers 20, Commanders 10
Moody’s pick: Chargers 27, Commanders 21
Walder’s pick: Chargers 30, Commanders 17
FPI prediction: LAC, 58.2% (by an average of 3.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: QB Daniels (knee) plans to play vs. Chargers … Alt doubtful to play Sunday, Harbaugh says … Commanders’ D focused on execution after flop vs. Falcons … Chargers’ Harbaugh: Hits Herbert taking ‘very concerning’

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4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | Matchup rating: 66.0/100
ESPN BET: DET -10.5 (49.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Lions: It’ll be an emotional homecoming for Lions RB David Montgomery as he plays in his hometown for the first time in his NFL career. He played the Bengals once in 2021 with the Bears in Chicago (20 rushes, 61 yards), but he has never had a road game against the Bengals. Montgomery attended Mount Healthy (Ohio) High School, where he earned All-State honors as a dual-threat QB. He is coming off a season-low 12 rushing yards with nine carries against Cleveland, but is looking to get back on track in a familiar setting in front of family and friends. “He’s going to kill it,” Arvie Crouch, Montgomery’s high school coach, told ESPN. — Eric Woodyard

What we’re hearing on the Bengals: This game will be a gut check for the Bengals in every way possible. The Lions are expected to steamroller Cincinnati, which is in some of the worst form in franchise history. Detroit is second in the NFL in rate of designed rush plays, per ESPN Research. The Bengals’ rush defense will have to limit big plays, and stopping those will come down to deploying basic techniques. Said defensive coordinator Al Golden: “Just defend your gap, keep the ball on your inside pad. Play with leverage.” — Ben Baby

Stat to know: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase is seeking to avoid going three straight games with 50 or fewer receiving yards for the second time in his career. — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Bengals QB Jake Browning will record a 60-plus QBR. Don’t get me wrong: Confidence in Browning has dropped off dramatically from where it was a few weeks ago. But then again, the two defenses he has played have been the Vikings and Broncos, and it doesn’t get much tougher than that. Considering his past success, I think there’s still hope for him and the Bengals. — Walder

Injuries: Lions | Bengals

Fantasy nugget: Lions QB Jared Goff has averaged just 14.1 fantasy points per game on the road since 2021. Detroit would be wise to lean heavily on Jahmyr Gibbs, Montgomery and the running game. This matchup also has one of the higher totals on the slate, and the Bengals’ defense has given up the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Lions are 11-2 ATS as road favorites since 2023. Read more. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s pick: Lions 37, Bengals 34
Moody’s pick: Lions 33 Bengals 17
Walder’s pick: Lions 31, Bengals 26
FPI prediction: DET, 76.9% (by an average of 11.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: Lions put CB Reed on IR due to hamstring … QB Browning has Taylor’s ‘unwavering’ confidence … St. Brown-Goff connection shines again in 2 TD day vs. Browns

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8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Matchup rating: 64.4/100
ESPN BET: BUF -7.5 (49.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Patriots: An unexpected injury issue popped up with one of the Patriots’ best players, as starting DT Milton Williams was added to the injury report Wednesday as a limited participant because of his ankle. Then Williams didn’t practice Thursday. He has played 72% of the defensive snaps through four games, has two sacks and has consistently created interior pressure. If he doesn’t play, that could thrust Khyiris Tonga into a starting role next to Christian Barmore. — Mike Reiss

What we’re hearing on the Bills: How will the rushing offense, which has been key to start the season, respond to the challenge the Patriots’ defense presents? RB James Cook has led Buffalo on the ground and has 100-plus yards in three straight games. New England, however, is tied for second in opponent rushing yards per game (77.5) and yards per rush (3.3). “[Cook] has such a really good understanding of what we’re trying to do, and how the guys are blocking and reading it. And he’s really special right now,” offensive coordinator Joe Brady said. — Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: Bills QB Josh Allen has 45 career games with both a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown, tied with Cam Newton for the most by any player in NFL history. — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Patriots rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson will record 64 or more rushing yards, doubling his current career high. Bills opponents have recorded a minus-14% pass rate over expectation this season, by far the lowest in the league. The Bills’ defense induces opponents’ runs. — Walder

Injuries: Patriots | Bills

Fantasy nugget: Bills TE Dalton Kincaid continues to split snaps and routes with others in the position group. You want to prioritize him in favorable matchups, like this week’s, which features one of the highest point totals on the slate. Kincaid catches passes from Allen in a Bills offense that ranks second in total yards per game. He faces a defense that gives up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Patriots have covered four straight meetings with two outright wins as underdogs. Read more. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s pick: Bills 38, Patriots 24
Moody’s pick: Bills 34, Patriots 24
Walder’s pick: Bills 31, Patriots 27
FPI prediction: BUF, 67.5% (by an average of 7.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Diggs’ comeback is underway with the Patriots … Will Bosa’s final(?) chapter end with a happy ending in Buffalo?

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Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Matchup rating: 68.5/100
ESPN BET: KC -3.5 (46.5 O/U)

What we’re hearing on the Chiefs: The Chiefs know that Jaguars star Travis Etienne Jr. will be the best RB they’ve faced so far this season — and that list already includes Baltimore’s Derrick Henry and Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley. Etienne has powered the Jaguars’ offense with 394 rushing yards, the third most in the league. “What’s stuck out to me watching film the past few days is how well he is on the edge,” LB Leo Chenal said of Etienne. “His stiff-arm is good, but it’s not just setting an edge. You have to have great eyes and continue to press the edge because he’ll bounce it out even if you’ve got a [defensive end] setting the edge two yards up the field. You better be ready to knock down a stiff-arm.” — Nate Taylor

What we’re hearing on the Jaguars: One of the things being stressed to the defensive players this week: Don’t get discouraged. QB Patrick Mahomes is an escape artist who can turn a bad play into a huge gain with an off-schedule throw from a weird arm angle. It’s going to happen at least once, but the key is to forget about it immediately when it does. “We’ve just got to go and huddle up, call the next play, refocus and understand that they’ve got good players, too, and they’re going to make some [big plays],” coach Liam Coen said. — Michael DiRocco

Stat to know: The Jaguars enter Week 5 leading the NFL in drops this season (10) and are the only team with a double-digit drop total. — ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Jaguars slot CB Jourdan Lewis will not allow a single reception to Chiefs WRs Hollywood Brown or JuJu Smith-Schuster while covering them. Lewis has allowed 0.7 yards per coverage snap this season (fifth best among slot corners with at least 80 coverage snaps) along with a minus-17% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

Injuries: Chiefs | Jaguars

Fantasy nugget: The Chiefs’ defensive front ranks 31st in run stop win rate (25.5%), while the Jaguars’ offensive line ranks second in run block win rate (76.5%). This is an advantage Jacksonville must exploit, and with Etienne, it should be able to do so. He has had 16-plus touches in every game this season, and 17-plus fantasy points in three of them. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their past five games as favorites. Read more. — ESPN Research

Maldonado’s pick: Chiefs 24, Jaguars 21
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 23, Jaguars 22
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 24, Jaguars 21
FPI prediction: KC, 62.8% (by an average of 5.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: WR Worthy unlocks Chiefs’ offense in return from shoulder injury … Coen has revived the Jaguars’ run game … Jaguars’ Walker has wrist surgery, could play vs. Chiefs

Hull KR will be the firm favourites when they welcome St Helens in the Betfred Super League semi-finals on Saturday night and coach Willie Peters wants his team to replicate the “mentality” Saints displayed last week.

It has been a remarkable season for the Robins, claiming two historic trophy wins so far and targeting a third if they can make it into the Grand Final at Old Trafford.

It would be only their second taste of the ‘Theatre of Dreams’, after losing to Wigan last time out in 2024 on the way to the Warriors picking up their history-making quadruple.

While Hull KR have now made it to the ‘big dance’ before, they are coming up against a side who have plenty of experience in that arena too, Saints boasting 28 Grand Final winners’ medals from 11 of their squad.

Add to that their last-gasp incredible ‘Left to Wright’ try to beat Leeds that has already sent reverberations around the rugby league world and St Helens now look a confident side.

With that in mind, Peters knows his side will have to put in a big performance to make it to Old Trafford once again and he is happy for it to take to the last second if necessary as that is what play-off rugby is all about.

“We’ve got to plan and prepare and it was a game that will be shown for many years to come,” Peters said.

“It shows the fight Saints have got. Leeds feel hard done by with certain things that happened but at the end of the day we fully respect what Saints bring and what they’re about so we’re looking forward to this challenge.

“It is the semi-finals, so we need to be happy to win the game in the last second. That’s the important part when you play in the big games, it’s not about winning it in the first 10 or 20 minutes.

“Semi-finals are built, and you’ve got to be happy to be prepared to win, similarly to how we did in the Challenge Cup. That’s how we prepare for big games, so there’s a mentality side you need to approach the game in and we’re certainly doing that.

“We played them a couple of weeks ago and won 12-8 so that shows how close the teams are and how much improvement they’ve had. I’m not looking so much at what we’ve done in terms of scoreboard but areas we think we can expose. We’ve looked at that and that’s how we’ve approached it.”

One thing levelled at Hull KR at the end of the regular season was a drop in their performances, losing to Wakefield and being taken all the way by Warrington in the final round.

However, Hull KR have just had a week off thanks to finishing first and Peters says he is more than happy with the energy levels of his side and reckons they are in “a decent spot” with a place booked for the semi-finals and the Challenge Cup and League Leaders’ Shield in the trophy cabinet.

“Whoever wins the middle third will have a big say in the game. You’ve two big, strong packs going at it. Both will have energy, I’m sure of that, it’s a semi-final. Whoever is willing to stay in the fight longest will come out on top,” Peters added.

“Let’s watch at the weekend and we’ll see where they’re at. It’s something that’s been spoken about, I’ve answered questions around it but I’m certainly not going to answer more questions because it’s about what we deliver this weekend. Then you can say if the energy levels were up or not, that’s up to you what you write.

“I’m looking at the energy levels in training all week and I’m happy where they’re at. But it’s about where they’re at on Saturday then you guys can decide on that.

“We’re in a semi-final so we’re in a decent spot.”

Super League fixtures

Knockout stage

Elimination play-offs

• Fri September 26: Leigh Leopards 26-10 Wakefield Trinity
• Sat September 27 Leeds Rhinos 14-16 St Helens

Semi-finals

• Fri October 3: Wigan Warriors vs Leigh Leopards – 8pm
• Sat October 4: Hull KR vs St Helens – 5.30pm

Grand Final (Old Trafford)

• Sat October 11: TBC vs TBC – 6pm

Watch every Super League game live on Sky Sports. Watch both Super League semi-finals live on Sky Sports on October 3 and 4.

NEW ORLEANS — The Saints announced a new 10-year lease with the state of Louisiana that will keep the team in New Orleans through at least 2035.

The announcement ends a lengthy negotiation for a new deal with the state, as the previous lease was not finalized beyond 2030.

“Discussions about this agreement have spanned two administrations, a global pandemic and Hurricane Ida,” Saints owner Gayle Benson said. “Now today, I am totally happy that we will be sending a signed copy of this agreement to the NFL for their approval.”

The Superdome has hosted the Saints since the building opened on Aug. 3, 1975. It recently went through a $450 million renovation and hosted Super Bowl LIX on Feb. 9.

The Saints missed the initial deadline to bid on the 2031 Super Bowl, but Benson said she is confident the organization will be able to discuss the possibility of hosting the game with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell once the league approves the new lease.

Benson said she explained to Goodell recently that they would talk again soon to make a case for the bid when the agreement was finalized.

“Once the NFL approves this lease extension, we will then be allowed to petition the NFL to bid on future Super Bowls,” Benson said.

Preseason All-American Cade Klubnik’s team is 1-3, and he is 94th in Total QBR. Preseason Heisman favorite Arch Manning is 71st. Sam Leavitt, Nico Iamaleava and Drew Allar, all playoff quarterbacks in 2024, are 61st, 76th and 88th, respectively. On the flip side, Notre Dame redshirt freshman C.J. Carr and Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss, a Division II transfer, are in the top five in Total QBR.

We knew this could be an odd college football season for quarterback play, with so many top teams fielding new starters and only a few known entities — including Klubnik and Allar, who have not earned that label — starting out near the top of the polls. But this has all been even stranger than we could have imagined.

With a month gone in the 2025 season, let’s take stock. We’ve seen plenty of stellar quarterback play, but a lot of it has come from unexpected sources. So let’s rank every power conference team’s quarterback (or quarterback situation) as we head into October.

(Note: References to rushing yards in stat lines below do not include sack yardage.)

Total QBR: 93.4 | Pass Yds: 1,587 | Rush Yds: 80 | Total TDs: 15

He was let down by his defense against Illinois on Saturday, but Maiava is comfortably No. 1 in Total QBR through September, and among QBR-qualified quarterbacks, he is one of only two to rank in the top 20 in both completion rate (70.5%) and yards per completion (16.2). Illinois was comfortably his worst game of the season, and he still threw for 364 yards with a Total QBR of 85.5.

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Total QBR: 88.4 | Pass Yds: 1,211 | Rush Yds: 306 | Total TDs: 15

We still don’t know if Vandy has the raw explosiveness (or defense) to survive a brutal upcoming run of opponents — next four games: at Alabama, LSU, Missouri, at Texas — but we do know that Pavia’s efficiency has gone from good to ruthless in 2025. Fewer negative plays, fewer (but more effective) scrambles and a 75% completion rate. Ridiculously good.

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Total QBR: 87.6 | Pass Yds: 1,033 | Rush Yds: 269 | Total TDs: 7

Austin Simmons started the season pretty well as Ole Miss’ starter, but when he injured his ankle, Chambliss stepped in and Wally Pipp’d him. He is creating more explosive plays with far fewer negative plays and more of a run threat. Last December, he torched Valdosta State to lead Ferris State to the Division II national title. This December, he might lead Ole Miss onto the field for its first SEC championship game.

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Total QBR: 82.1 | Pass Yds: 1,208 | Rush Yds: 132 | Total TDs: 18

Indiana ranks first nationally in success rate*, and Mendoza ranks first among QBs. He survived an always tricky trip to Iowa City this past weekend, too, throwing for 233 yards and two touchdowns (albeit with an interception and two sacks). Kurtis Rourke was a huge part of Indiana’s surprise success last season, and thanks to Mendoza the Hoosiers are doing as well or even better this year.

(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)

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Total QBR: 83.0 | Pass Yds: 1,210 | Rush Yds: 131 | Total TDs: 14

After an easy start to his first season as Oregon’s starter, Moore faced the biggest test of his career on a White Out evening at Penn State last Saturday. He threw for a wonderfully controlled 248 yards and three touchdowns with no sacks or interceptions and three rushing first downs. There are more tests to come, but that’s how you become the Heisman betting favorite virtually overnight.

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Total QBR: 87.6 | Pass Yds: 1,043 | Rush Yds: 238 | Total TDs: 14

Cincinnati is basically one poor pass away from being one of the biggest stories of the early season. Sorsby’s underthrown interception cost the Bearcats a potential win over Nebraska in Week 1. He has otherwise piloted what might be the most well-rounded offense this side of USC and Indiana.

Saturday’s track meet win at Kansas inserted Sorsby and Cincy into the Big 12 race.

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7. CJ Carr, Notre Dame

Total QBR: 88.4 | Pass Yds: 1,091 | Rush Yds: 60 | Total TDs: 10

Trinidad Chambliss against Arkansas two weeks ago: 21-of-29 passing for 353 yards with a touchdown. Carr against Arkansas on Saturday: 22-of-30 for 354 yards with four touchdowns. Arkansas’ defense may have completely quit Saturday, but the Fighting Irish made it happen. Carr doesn’t offer much of a run threat, but his Total QBR rating has improved each game this season.

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Total QBR: 84.2 | Pass Yds: 1,138 | Rush Yds: 86 | Total TDs: 13

In his first road start of 2025, against Florida State, Simpson was stressed and inaccurate. In his second road start, he beat Georgia, throwing for 276 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for another score (and two other first downs). Projected over 13 games, he is on pace for 3,700 passing yards, 42 combined touchdowns and, at the moment, zero interceptions. First impressions are rarely accurate.

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Total QBR: 87.0 | Pass Yds: 951 | Rush Yds: 283 | Total TDs: 8

The less fair way to look at Williams’ performance this season: He has faced one good defense (Ohio State) and bombed the test, averaging 4.2 yards per dropback with as many sacks (six) as points scored. The fairer way: Ohio State’s defense is going to do that to just about anyone, and he has torched everyone else. He is still top 10 in Total QBR, after all, and that’s opponent-adjusted.

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Total QBR: 77.6 | Pass Yds: 1,262 | Rush Yds: 250 | Total TDs: 17

Kansas hasn’t solved its close-game woes this season, but considering the Jayhawks topped 30 points in both losses, it’s hard to blame Daniels and the offense for that. Daniels threw for 668 yards with 109 non-sack rushing yards and seven combined touchdowns in those losses, and he and the KU offense will continue to give the Jayhawks a chance in the close games still to come.

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Total QBR: 82.2 | Pass Yds: 987 | Rush Yds: 17 | Total TDs: 10

It’s almost impossible to grade Sayin on the same scale as everyone else. He leads the nation with a 79% completion rate, he has taken only two sacks and he is third in success rate. He is keeping the offense humming along beautifully. But he is also throwing mostly short passes to extremely talented receivers, and his defense has yet to allow double-digit points in a game.

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Total QBR: 75.5 | Pass Yds: 1,215 | Rush Yds: 211 | Total TDs: 11

Obviously this one’s a bit tricky, as Mateer is out for an undetermined amount of time after hand surgery. But since he is expected back at some point this season, we’ll put him on this list.

Mateer is also tricky to evaluate because Oklahoma’s offense has been mediocre this season (61st in points per drive, 56th in yards per play), but anything good has probably been because of him. He is carrying a heavy load for an otherwise poor run game, and he is distributing the ball nicely among four pass catchers. I didn’t think he should be the Heisman favorite for his play, but he is playing well with a high degree of difficulty.

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Total QBR: 85.7 | Pass Yds: 1,279 | Rush Yds: 183 | Total TDs: 14

Over the past three seasons, Virginia’s leading passers have averaged 2,098 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions per season. Projected over 13 games, Morris is on pace for 3,325 yards, 26 touchdowns and 10 picks. Throw in quality red zone rushing, and this is easily the best QB play the Cavaliers have seen since Brennan Armstrong’s peak in 2021.

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Total QBR: 87.6 | Pass Yds: 1,398 | Rush Yds: 483 | Total TDs: 14

Like Jalon Daniels, you can’t really blame Green for his awful defense. All he has done is put himself on a pace for a season with 3,300 passing yards and 1,100 rushing yards (projected over 12 games). He still plays with fire — he has thrown five interceptions, and he has tempted fate with a few more INT-worthy throws — but he is sixth in Total QBR because he makes more big plays than almost anyone.

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Total QBR: 84.8 | Pass Yds: 1,183 | Rush Yds: 106 | Total TDs: 13

Sacks have become a problem for the veteran (he has taken 17 of them in five games), but he has hinted at a new level of upside in 2025 as well. In Saturday’s big rebound win over USC, Altmyer completed 20 of 26 passes for 328 yards and two scores and had a rushing TD as well. He is completing a career-high 71% of his passes for a career-best 13.1 yards per completion.

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Total QBR: 78.3 | Pass Yds: 848 | Rush Yds: 223 | Total TDs: 8

He is never going to be the most consistent passer in the world, but almost no other QB combines Castellanos’ big-play passing threat with dangerous scrambling.

Virginia showed what can happen if you manage to hem Castellanos in and force him to pass instead of scrambling, but FSU still scored 35 points in regulation, and he still combined 254 passing yards with 78 rushing yards.

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Total QBR: 72.2 | Pass Yds: 1,459 | Rush Yds: 76 | Total TDs: 15

After a nearly flawless start, Aguilar’s game has sprung some leaks of late — he has thrown five interceptions in his past three games and took a pair of sacks against Mississippi State. Still, he has brought the explosiveness back to the Tennessee offense, averaging 14.3 yards per completion while taking only three sacks all season. Not bad for a guy on his third school (and third offense) in 12 months.

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Total QBR: 81.9 | Pass Yds: 972 | Rush Yds: 38 | Total TDs: 8

It’s hard to figure out Beck and Miami’s offense at the moment. The Hurricanes are up to third in the AP poll, and he is the No. 4 Heisman betting favorite with a 73% completion rate (ninth among qualified QBs). But he is 68th nationally in yards per completion (11.9) and 95th in interception rate (2.7%), and he provides no run threat whatsoever. The defense has been more responsible than the offense for Miami’s 4-0 start.

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Total QBR: 77.6 | Pass Yds: 1,203 | Rush Yds: 184 | Total TDs: 12

Opponents have begun to figure Pribula out a bit, and he has seen his interception rate rise while his sack rate remains high. But the good still drastically outweighs the bad: He is third nationally in completion rate (76%), and among power conference QBs, his third-down success rate (59%) ranks behind only Maiava’s 61%. He left Penn State because he was stuck behind Drew Allar, but he has drastically outplayed Allar thus far in 2025.

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Total QBR: 88.2 | Pass Yds: 851 | Rush Yds: 158 | Total TDs: 8

At this point, Stockton is the personification of the Georgia program as a whole: clearly talented, pretty good at everything and not necessarily elite at anything. He has thrown 39% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage (sixth most), and he is averaging just 5.9 air yards per attempt (seventh lowest). That’s keeping the Dawgs on schedule, but explosiveness is proving to be an issue.

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Total QBR: 77.9 | Pass Yds: 1,713 | Rush Yds: 58 | Total TDs: 18

Keep the pass rushers off Robertson, and you’ll win games. Baylor is 0-2 when his pressure rate is above 27% (and his sack rate is above 3%), and the Bears are 3-0 and averaging 45 points per game otherwise. And no matter what, he is a hell of a volume passer: Projected over 13 games, he is on pace for nearly 4,500 yards and 44 TDs, and he leads the nation in both categories.

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Total QBR: 77.0 | Pass Yds: 1,573 | Rush Yds: 23 | Total TDs: 13

The high-profile Tulane transfer has rebounded from error-prone losses to Illinois and Tulane. In his first two ACC games, Mensah threw for 537 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions and an 88.9 Total QBR, and Duke scored 83 points. If that’s a sign of things to come, the Blue Devils’ investment could end up paying off, and they could become sleeper ACC title game contenders.

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Total QBR: 78.5 | Pass Yds: 1,242 | Rush Yds: 53 | Total TDs: 12

The negative plays were too much for Hoover and TCU to overcome at Arizona State last Friday — his 242 passing yards (and rushing touchdown) put the Horned Frogs in position for an upset, but two interceptions and a back-breaking late sack-and-strip (the last of six sacks) were too much to overcome. Still, Hoover’s high-volume explosiveness could keep the Frogs in the Big 12 race.

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Total QBR: 77.6 | Pass Yds: 1,103 | Rush Yds: 97 | Total TDs: 12

ISU’s run game isn’t nearly as effective as it was supposed to be, but the Cyclones are 5-0 all the same, both because the defense is again solid and because Becht is nicely efficient. He ranks 24th in success rate — 11th on third or fourth down — and 26th in yards per dropback. The big plays are picking up too: He is averaging 18.1 yards per completion over the past two games.

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Total QBR: 77.2 | Pass Yds: 1,137 | Rush Yds: 29 | Total TDs: 11

Raiola’s 76% completion rate ranks fourth nationally, and his 11-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio is pretty sexy, but he somehow takes forever to throw (2.89 seconds on average, 108th) extremely short passes (6.2 air yards per attempt, 123rd) and takes a lot of sacks in the process (28.6% sacks to pressures, 119th). Still, the Cornhuskers rank 16th in points per drive and ninth in success rate so he is doing something right.

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Total QBR: 66.6 | Pass Yds: 1,076 | Rush Yds: 162 | Total TDs: 10

Reed is an explosive playmaker (14.7 yards per completion, 6.0 yards per non-sack carry) who, unlike lots of other playmakers, avoids sacks. He is excellent against zone coverage too (14th in QBR vs. zone). But his overall efficiency is hit-or-miss (52nd in success rate), and he hasn’t solved man coverage (123rd in QBR vs. man). He is good, but his profile is a mixed bag right now.

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Total QBR: 66.0 | Pass Yds: 886 | Rush Yds: 210 | Total TDs: 5

He is getting no help from a dreadful run game, and sacks remain a devastating issue — South Carolina ranks 126th in pressure rate allowed (which is potentially on the O-line) and 119th in sacks per pressure (which is on Sellers). But he is still a playmaker: He averages 15.3 yards per completion (ninth) — with only one interception — and 9.2 yards per scramble. Both flaws and upside remain obvious.

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Total QBR: 64.5 | Pass Yds: 1,065 | Rush Yds: 37 | Total TDs: 11

Injuries have piled up for Morton through the years, and he has already had to leave a couple of games this season with minor injuries as well. But when he is out there, he is super explosive: He is seventh nationally in yards per completion (15.4) and sixth in yards per dropback (sixth). And backup Will Hammond has proved pretty stellar when he has had to enter the game.

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Total QBR: 75.5 | Pass Yds: 758 | Rush Yds: 398 | Total TDs: 10

King attempts more designed runs than anyone on this list, and every time he takes a hit, he gets up looking like he has taken more career hits than Adrian Peterson. His toughness is unquestionable, but his actual passing rankings — 71st in yards per dropback, 48th in success rate — are awfully mediocre this year. He has a good backup in Aaron Philo, but the Tech offense has one note when King is in the game.

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Total QBR: 72.5 | Pass Yds: 1,399 | Rush Yds: 86 | Total TDs: 11

Rutgers is averaging over 30 points and 400 yards per game for the first time since 2007 — the Scarlet Knights just hit 28 points in back-to-back games against top-25 defenses — and despite some pretty big sack issues, Kaliakmanis’ passing has been the primary reason for that. Unfortunately, the defense hasn’t held up its end of the bargain.

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Total QBR: 64.1 | Pass Yds: 1,039 | Rush Yds: 352 | Total TDs: 13

After an offseason of pretty big hype, Leavitt stumbled out of the gate in 2025. But he has picked up steam since.

First two games: 42.0 Total QBR, 57% completion rate, 5.7 yards per dropback, 3 INT

Last three games: 73.6 Total QBR, 67% completion rate, 7.0 yards per dropback, 0 INT

He hasn’t been a top-30 quarterback over five games, but the guy we’ve seen in recent weeks sure is.

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Total QBR: 78.4 | Pass Yds: 1,323 | Rush Yds: 125 | Total TDs: 12

Bailey has pulled an anti-Leavitt. Things started well, but the mistakes are adding up in a hurry.

First three games: 85.2 Total QBR, 7.7 yards per dropback, 1.1% INT rate, 2.2% sack rate

Last two games: 66.7 Total QBR, 7.0 yards per dropback, 4.1% INT rate, 8.8% sack rate

Perhaps not surprisingly, Bailey’s Wolfpack started 3-0 but have now lost two straight.

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Total QBR: 78.8 | Pass Yds: 868 | Rush Yds: 225 | Total TDs: 11

We’re definitely seeing a lot of examples of a specific prototype in this section — lots of time to throw, lots of sacks, high completion rate on mostly short passes, a healthy number of (non-sack) rushing yards — and Chiles is a particular example. he is hinted at huge explosiveness (17.7 yards per completion vs. USC), but the State defense is poor enough that he has to be great for the Spartans to do well.

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Total QBR: 72.1 | Pass Yds: 1,027 | Rush Yds: 273 | Total TDs: 13

Dampier is mobile and heavy on designed runs, but he bucks the stereotype by taking almost no sacks. You can stay on schedule well with Dampier as your QB — as Utah is learning — but you won’t see many big pass plays, and if an opponent like, say, Texas Tech is knocking you off schedule frequently, disaster could follow. (Especially since nagging injuries are often a thing for a guy who gets hit that much.)

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Total QBR: 55.7 | Pass Yds: 1,126 | Rush Yds: 111 | Total TDs: 10

Kevin Jennings charged into the starting lineup in place of a slow-starting Preston Stone last year and thrived, winning nine straight starts and eventually leading SMU to the CFP. Then, something broke.

First nine starts (2024): 9-0 record, 77.9 Total QBR, 9.2 yards per dropback, 2.5% INT rate, 3.6% sack rate

Last five starts (2024-25): 1-4 record, 59.0 Total QBR, 6.5 yards per dropback, 4.4% INT rate, 5.7% sack rate

He made some solid plays in losses to Baylor and TCU this September, but he is still making too many mistakes to account for a sketchy defense.

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Total QBR: 72.7 | Pass Yds: 1,029 | Rush Yds: 23 | Total TDs: 7

Moss pretty much had to be in the middle of this list because he couldn’t have a more average statistical profile if you created it in a lab: He is 59th in completion rate (65.6%), 67th in yards per completion (12.0), 70th in yards per dropback (7.0), 76th in sack rate (5.8%) and 79th in INT rate (2.3%). You could do better, and you could do worse.

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Total QBR: 76.4 | Pass Yds: 1,159 | Rush Yds: 50 | Total TDs: 8

The preseason Heisman contender dealt with a torso injury before the season and sure looks like he is still dealing with it, but he has to throw all the time because LSU’s run game stinks. So he is throwing quick passes (115th in air yards per attempt) but not completing a huge percentage (43rd in completion rate), and the ones he is completing aren’t going anywhere (112th in yards per completion). LSU’s defense is finally excellent, but Nussmeier and the offense aren’t living up to their end of the bargain.

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Total QBR: 77.3 | Pass Yds: 733 | Rush Yds: 185 | Total TDs: 5

Underwood is mature, and he has a huge arm and strong fight-or-flight instincts — he is 38th in sack rate (3.8%) and seventh in yards per scramble (12.4). He is also still learning the whole quarterbacking thing. He fires 99 mph fastballs when they aren’t necessary, and he has experienced bouts of inaccuracy (120th in completion rate). Improvement over Michigan’s 2024 QBs? Absolutely. Altogether good? Not quite yet.

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Total QBR: 67.6 | Pass Yds: 697 | Rush Yds: 183 | Total TDs: 10

BYU has an excellent running back (LJ Martin) and an effective defense. The Cougars have the key components to survive starting a true freshman and trying not to ask too much of him. He is completing 68% of his (mostly short) passes, using his legs a decent amount and avoiding negative plays. As long as he is not being asked to make huge plays on third-and-long, he can keep managing the game.

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Total QBR: 76.6 | Pass Yds: 684 | Rush Yds: 260 | Total TDs: 9

After briefly losing his job early in the season, Salter, the Liberty transfer, is back in the lineup, and he is 21st in success rate with only one interception. But he is facing constant pressure, scrambling and throwing outside the pocket a lot. It worked against Wyoming, not so much against BYU, and with games against TCU, Iowa State and Utah on deck, any hopes of a decent season will require some immediate stability.

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Total QBR: 57.2 | Pass Yds: 888 | Rush Yds: 132 | Total TDs: 14

It almost looks like paralysis by analysis for Manning. He has been raised as a perfect quarterback specimen and knows every passing angle, and he seems to freeze up while considering what to do sometimes. He averages 3.1 seconds to throw (seventh most in the country), and he is 100th in interception rate (2.8%) and 96th in completion rate (61.3%). Texas’ defense will buy him development time, and things could click at any moment, but they haven’t yet.

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Total QBR: 66.8 | Pass Yds: 958 | Rush Yds: 5 | Total TDs: 8

Lindsey enjoyed a nice performance against Rutgers, throwing for 324 yards and three touchdowns in a win. He’s 15th nationally in success rate (52.8%) despite rarely throwing at or behind the line, though he’s averaging only 10.6 yards per completion against power-conference opponents. There’s absolutely no run threat here, but safe passing combined with strong defense should produce at least seven or eight wins.

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Total QBR: 70.0 | Pass Yds: 846 | Rush Yds: 311 | Total TDs: 10

The returns, they are diminishing quickly.

Arnold has completed at least 65% of his passes in three of five games (with zero interceptions on the year). But he has taken at least four sacks three times, and he has taken 14 in the past two games. His protection is poor, and holding on to the ball too long is getting him hit constantly without any threat of big plays (9.7 yards per completion). This is an increasing disaster.

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Total QBR: 55.6 | Pass Yds: 1,036 | Rush Yds: 131 | Total TDs: 8

After transferring to North Carolina and then returning, Browne has had three pretty good games (with a Total QBR of 71 or higher) and one dreadful one (three picks and five sacks against USC). He is getting little help from his run game and almost none from his defense, but he’s averaging 13.5 yards per completion, and he’s on pace for 3,100 yards and 18 touchdowns. Massive improvement for Purdue.

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Total QBR: 54.3 | Pass Yds: 1,064 | Rush Yds: 117 | Total TDs: 9

Shapen scrambles a lot and takes too many sacks, but he does have occasional success as a big-play hunter. That has resulted in an upset of Arizona State — and a pick-six and a scoop-and-score in a narrow loss to Tennessee. We can probably expect similar volatility the rest of the year. (We can also probably expect MSU’s first bowl in three seasons.)

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Total QBR: 58.3 | Pass Yds: 839 | Rush Yds: 175 | Total TDs: 10

Regarded as the top pocket passer in the 2022 recruiting class, Weigman has come to rely on his mobility. He has run for 13 first downs and four touchdowns, but he also has taken hits on 44% of his dropbacks (120th nationally). Regardless, it has added an extra dimension to pretty average passing (106th in success rate, 63rd in yards per dropback), and has helped keep Houston unbeaten into October.

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Total QBR: 59.7 | Pass Yds: 1,019 | Rush Yds: 168 | Total TDs: 10

Where’s the sense of adventure? Johnson’s instincts seem to be tangled up as he attempts to convert great athletic skills into NFL-caliber QB play. He has spent most of 2025 taking few chances with his arm (one interception but only 10.7 yards per completion) and trying to avoid making plays with his legs (seven scrambles, albeit for 106 yards). He finally used his legs last week against UCF, however, and produced his best game of the year. Maybe that’s a sign of improvement to come?

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Total QBR: 53.2 | Pass Yds: 1,038 | Rush Yds: 26 | Total TDs: 10

Maryland has given Washington training wheels. The true freshman has started from day one, and he dropped back to pass at least 35 times against his first three FBS opponents. Granted, a lot of those were quick sideline passes, and he’s completing only 51% of his passes at least 5 yards downfield. But he has thrown just one pick and taken one sack, and avoiding disaster has helped to keep the Terps unbeaten.

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Total QBR: 48.5 | Pass Yds: 1,242 | Rush Yds: 62 | Total TDs: 9

Like Washington, Sagapolutele has gone straight to the deep end. The true freshman has thrown 178 passes, eighth most in FBS, and has alternated between flashes of excellence and, against San Diego State, absolute disaster (17-for-38 with two picks). If you grade on a curve, however, this is going about as well as the blue-chipper could have expected, and he should top 3,000 yards with about 20 touchdowns.

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Total QBR: 50.0 | Pass Yds: 1,050 | Rush Yds: 133 | Total TDs: 12

Last season, Holstein was pretty good for about five games, then faded rapidly. This season, it took only two games. After torching overwhelmed Duquesne and Central Michigan defenses, he took six sacks with an interception against West Virginia, then threw two costly picks and got benched in the fourth quarter last week against Louisville. At his best, he’s a bold playmaker. But there are too many picks and sacks.

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Total QBR: 63.0 | Pass Yds: 965 | Rush Yds: 133 | Total TDs: 11

Arizona has shown some life after a 2024 collapse, but it mostly has come from the defense and run game. In three games against FBS opponents, Fifita averaged a ghastly 4.9 yards per dropback with six sacks, and in the Wildcats’ loss to Iowa State last week he threw two interceptions and averaged just 7.9 yards per completion. When Arizona has to throw, the ball doesn’t really go anywhere.

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Total QBR: 54.8 | Pass Yds: 1,188 | Rush Yds: 24 | Total TDs: 10

The Alabama transfer averaged 8.7 yards per dropback in his first start against an FBS opponent, then averaged 6.8 in his second and 4.9 in his third. Teams blitz him a little more each week, and his interception rate is going up at the same time that his average yards per completion is going down. He beat out incumbent Grayson James upon his arrival from Tuscaloosa, but the shine has worn off quickly.

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53. Three injured QBs, UCF

Total QBR: 58.4 | Pass Yds: 938 | Rush Yds: 288 | Total TDs: 9

Cam Fancher injured his back just nine passes into the season. Tayven Jackson led UCF to three wins but hurt his shoulder and struggled against Kansas State. When Jacurri Brown also hurt his shoulder, Jackson came back in but accomplished little. Fancher should be ready this week if Jackson is too limited, and Jackson was pretty good in the blowout of North Carolina. But this is a fluid situation.

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Total QBR: 45.1 | Pass Yds: 996 | Rush Yds: 94 | Total TDs: 7

It’s just shocking how poor Clemson’s passing game has been this year. Klubnik ranks 93rd in yards per dropback, 102nd in success rate and 96th in interception rate. He’s facing blitzes constantly behind a banged-up offensive line (the run game has been wholly mediocre), and he’s firing short and mostly ineffective passes. He posted a 78.7 Total QBR in 2024, but he hasn’t topped 60.0 in a 2025 game yet. This has been an utterly disastrous September.

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Total QBR: 48.4 | Pass Yds: 763 | Rush Yds: 86 | Total TDs: 6

In one drive against Oregon, with Penn State down 14, Allar completed three passes for 56 yards and a beautiful touchdown lob. The rest of the game, he went 11-of-22 for 81 yards and a game-clinching pick. His big-game production is a known issue, but he hasn’t really produced against anyone, throwing few deep balls and averaging 10.8 yards per completion. This has not yet become the breakthrough year Allar hoped for.

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Total QBR: 53.7 | Pass Yds: 1,105 | Rush Yds: 257 | Total TDs: 12

One of the more proven QBs in the ACC heading into 2025, Drones has averaged just 4.8 yards per dropback in four games against FBS opponents, with three interceptions and two fumbles. He remains a solid scrambler, but he’s facing constant pressure and has only once completed more than 59% of his passes. Tech has won two straight after an 0-3 start, but Drones hasn’t been particularly responsible for that.

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Total QBR: 46.9 | Pass Yds: 636 | Rush Yds: 200 | Total TDs: 10

I had high hopes for the South Dakota State transfer, and he certainly has improved since a dismal start.

First two games: 25.7 Total QBR, 53.8% completion rate, 2.8 yards per dropback

Last three games: 64.5 Total QBR, 70.1% completion rate, 6.5 yards per dropback

Still, Iowa scored just 15 points against Indiana on Saturday and missed a shot at an upset. He’s getting up to speed, but the remaining schedule has lots of good defenses on it.

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Total QBR: 54.6 | Pass Yds: 788 | Rush Yds: 252 | Total TDs: 5

Iamaleava was an unfinished product at Tennessee in 2024 — took too long to throw, too many sacks, too few big plays — but he has seen everything fall apart with a bad supporting cast at UCLA. He ranks 119th in yards per completion (9.7), 83rd in INT rate (2.4%) and 91st in sack rate (6.8%), and UCLA seems to start every game down 21-0. Per SP+, the Bruins now have a 61% chance of finishing 0-12. Ouch.

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Total QBR: 35.7 | Pass Yds: 1,167 | Rush Yds: 20 | Total TDs: 5

Credit where it’s due: Like Gronowski, Gulbranson has recovered from an abysmal start.

First two games: 11.7 Total QBR, 51.6% completion rate, 4.8% INT rate, 3.2 yards per dropback

Last three games: 56.6 Total QBR, 66.0% completion rate, 0.0% INT rate, 8.0 yards per dropback

He led three late scoring drives to save Stanford against San José State last weekend, and honestly, 2-3 is better than I thought the Cardinal would be right now. But unless Gulbranson has another gear, a fifth straight 3-9 finish is likely.

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Total QBR: 39.8 | Pass Yds: 916 | Rush Yds: 226 | Total TDs: 5

The well-traveled Ashford is what he is at this point: a low-efficiency (111th in completion rate, 120th in success rate), high-explosiveness (25th in yards per completion) passer with solid legs (29th in non-sack rushing yards). Ashford and Wake Forest started strong against both NC State and Georgia Tech, but he went a combined 13-of-31 in the second half, and the Demon Deacons lost both games.

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Total QBR: 46.9 | Pass Yds: 690 | Rush Yds: 68 | Total TDs: 5

Lagway battled back from offseason injuries, but he has been a shadow of his freshman self. He’s making no big plays (8.3 yards per completion), his already-high interception and sack rates have gone up — he’s 127th in the former and 92nd in the latter — and his 1-3 Gators are projected favorites in just one more game. Barring an immediate course correction, this looks like a massive lost season.

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Total QBR: 36.2 | Pass Yds: 753 | Rush Yds: 138 | Total TDs: 6

Edwards won the starting job and got hurt almost immediately. O’Neil has thrown mostly short passes ineffectively, combining 10.7 yards per completion (100th) with a dreadful 5.9% interception rate (131st). Edwards should return soon, but is he good enough to totally save an offense without a run game or deep threats (and zero remaining games as a projected favorite)? Probably not.

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Total QBR: 21.6 | Pass Yds: 328 | Rush Yds: 20 | Total TDs: 2

Steve Angeli suffered a season-ending injury in Syracuse’s upset of Clemson, and against a disappointing Duke defense on Saturday, Collins struggled. Granted, his receivers lost two fumbles, but he also fumbled and threw an interception while averaging 5.6 yards per dropback in a 38-3 loss. He avoids pressure nicely, and there are a few more iffy defenses on the schedule, but this could be a learning process.

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64. Two or three square pegs for round holes, West Virginia

Total QBR: 35.7 | Pass Yds: 770 | Rush Yds: 270 | Total TDs: 4

Nicco Marchiol can throw a little. Jaylen Henderson can run. Neither seems to be able to fulfill all the requirements in a Rich Rodriguez offense, however. After Marchiol oversaw a blowout loss to Kansas, Henderson oversaw a blowout loss to Utah. It’s possible a third option, Khalil Wilkins, starts against BYU this week after decent work during garbage time last week. Regardless, no answers have emerged thus far.

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Total QBR: 37.6 | Pass Yds: 649 | Rush Yds: 122 | Total TDs: 1

Thrust into the lineup when Hauss Hejny suffered a foot injury early in Week 1, Flores threw two pick-sixes against Oregon and engineered a total of 15 points in his first two starts. He improved against Baylor, but he still averaged only 5.8 yards per dropback with a 45.3 Total QBR. Hejny should return soon, but per SP+, OSU (1-3) is a projected underdog of at least 12 points in every remaining game.

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66. Gio Lopez, North Carolina

Total QBR: 16.3 | Pass Yds: 430 | Rush Yds: 105 | Total TDs: 4

After an exciting season at South Alabama (Total QBR: 72.3), Lopez has bombed in his first year in Freddie Kitchens’ offense. He has yet to produce a Total QBR higher than 35.0 in any game, and he averaged just 4.4 yards per dropback in two blowout losses, both of which he left injured. It might be best for both UNC and Lopez if Max Johnson were named the starter moving forward.

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Total QBR: 22.1 | Pass Yds: 656 | Rush Yds: 15 | Total TDs: 4

Stone lost his job to Kevin Jennings at SMU last season and transferred, hoping to save both his college career and Northwestern’s offense. Four games in, he ranks 130th nationally in Total QBR, 100th in completion rate (60.6%), 103rd in yards per completion (10.4), 130th in interception rate (5.8%) and 98th in sack rate. That might actually represent improvement for the Wildcats, but yuck.

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Total QBR: 25.4 | Pass Yds: 636 | Rush Yds: 89 | Total TDs: 3

Boley threw for 240 yards against Eastern Michigan, with seven completions over 20 yards. Against three defenses ranked higher than 135th in SP+, however, he and Calzada have gone a combined 36-of-75 for 396 yards with two interceptions and nine sacks. And 53 of those yards came on a single dump-off pass. The QB position offered almost nothing for UK last season, and it’s offering even less in 2025.

Who will score a touchdown this week? Whether you intend to make an anytime TD bet, are setting a DFS lineup or simply enjoy peering into a crystal ball, I have a prediction for you.

Every week, we generate fantasy football projections for every game on the slate, and that includes the probability that a player will take the ball into the end zone. Here are my top 25 predicted scorers for Week 5, along with the implied odds*, as well as the Anytime Touchdown money line offered by ESPN BET at time of publication. For the latest odds on these and all other player props, go to ESPN BET.

*Implied odds converts the probability of an outcome projected by Mike Clay into a money line. Look for implied odds that are higher than the money line offered. For example if the implied odds are -150 and the money line is -110, then Clay’s projection system indicates an advantage for the bettor. If the implied odds are +110 but the line offered is -110, the projection system sees a disadvantage to be avoided.

INGLEWOOD, Calif. — The Los Angeles Rams face the San Francisco 49ers in a NFL Week 5 matchup on Thursday.

Our two team reporters — Sarah Barshop for the Rams and Nick Wagoner for the 49ers — are at SoFi Stadium, and they’re keeping you updated on all the biggest plays and highlights.

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Rams-49ers highlights

Ange Postecoglou said Nottingham Forest fans who chanted he would be ‘sacked in the morning’ were “entitled to their opinion”, but insisted his side are on the right track despite their Europa League defeat to FC Midtjylland.

Forest fans directed their chants towards the Australian after they were beaten 3-2 at the City Ground, with Midtjylland scoring twice from set-pieces before a late third on the break.

The defeat means Postecoglou is still without a win with four defeats from his six matches in charge since replacing Nuno Espirito Santo, making him the first permanent Forest boss to be winless in his first six games in 100 years.

Speaking after the match, Postecoglou said: “The fans are disappointed, they’re entitled to have an opinion on it and I heard their opinion.

“Nothing surprises me anymore in football. I guess it’s just the climate we’re in and it seems that’s the way we’re going.

“But look, that’s something I can control. My responsibility lies to make sure that we try and get some wins for this football club and progress it.

“I get the mood around the place isn’t going to be great, I understand people’s kind of attitude at the moment, particularly towards me, but I never worry about that. It’s not unfamiliar territory for me.

“I really believe that we’re on the right track and when we get through this period of uncertainty we’ll be on a good path.

“I still think apart from their attitude towards me that they were behind the team and I think that’s the important thing. Of course, I would prefer people are optimistic.

“If we start winning games of football, the atmosphere will change.”

Ange bemoans costly recurring issues

While Forest dominated the ball, they were unable to prevent Midtjylland from asserting their dominance from set-pieces, something they have become renowned for in Danish football.

“It was a pretty similar target to be honest, it was just us letting ourselves down in the key moments and then having a mountain to climb.

“I guess it’s the accumulation of things, just the manner. It’s not like the goalkeeper is having to make multiple saves.

“It’s something we need to try to unlock in terms of just appreciating the key moments in a game and making sure that we’re fully focused on those.

“If you allow the opposition to score, just a matter of time they get the goal, it’s going to be very hard to win games of football.”

Conceding goals has been a clear problem for Forest since Postecoglou’s arrival, with 13 being shipped in his six games in charge. The club’s last clean sheet came in a 1-0 victory over Manchester United in April.

“In the second half we dominated the game and put them under pressure. We couldn’t get the goal to unlock it.

“But again, we shouldn’t be in that position.”

Fans give verdict on Postecoglou

Sky Sports’ Adam Bate at the City Ground:

The atmosphere at the end was unpleasant, hardly how Nottingham Forest had wanted their big night to reach its denouement. It had begun with nostalgia and pyrotechnics. Forest are back. It concluded in acrimony with calls for Ange Postecoglou to depart.

He is six games into this job so on one level it is absurd. And yet, given the popularity of his predecessor and the underwhelming reaction to his appointment, he needed an encouraging start to convince the doubters. Instead, he has not won a single game.

Arsenal away was a daunting start but a cup tie against Swansea, two matches against promoted teams, and an inviting fixture at home to Danish opposition in a Europa League they kicked off among the favourites to win, provided a real opportunity for him.

Instead, despite dominating possession in those games, he has been unable to offer a vision of how he can improve Forest. Indeed, some might argue it is because of dominating possession in those games. This was not what their success was built on.

Perhaps Forest have to evolve away from their counter-attacking approach, add more to their repertoire if they are to progress. But for now, it seems they have lost what made them so good without adding anything of note. Too passive. Uncertain in both boxes.

Postecoglou insists they are on the right track, but the sense at the City Ground on Thursday evening was that few would agree with that sentiment right now. Regardless of the coach, there would be concerns. But for many fans, the verdict on Postecoglou is in.

It only gets tougher – Nottingham Forest’s next eight fixtures

• Newcastle vs Forest – Sunday October 5 – live on Sky Sports
• Forest vs Chelsea – Saturday October 18
• Forest vs Porto – Thursday October 23
• Bournemouth vs Forest – Sunday October 26 – live on Sky Sports
• Forest vs Manchester United – Saturday November 1
• Sturm Graz vs Forest – Thursday November 6
• Forest vs Leeds – Sunday November 9 – live on Sky Sports
• Liverpool vs Forest – Saturday November 22

The top stories and transfer rumours from Friday’s newspapers…

THE SUN

Sir Gareth Southgate fears he would not be given the time to transform Manchester United into a force again if he became their next manager.

Rory McIlroy has been sent a formal apology after his wife Erica Stoll was hit by beer at the Ryder Cup.

Premier League boss Richard Masters has given the biggest hint that the Saturday 3pm blackout is here to stay.

DAILY MIRROR

Manchester United chiefs reportedly gave thought to turning to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer before landing Ruben Amorim last year.

Gabriel Martinelli claims Viktor Gyokeres is capable of scoring up to 40 goals for Arsenal this season – because of the wizardry of captain Martin Odegaard.

Oliver Glasner’s future at Crystal Palace is uncertain after the Austrian declined the chance to sign a new contract with the club.

THE TIMES

Bars are expected to extend trading hours next summer as England matches could begin as late as 2am under FIFA’s plans to combat extreme heat in North America.

DAILY MAIL

Crystal Palace are showing interest in highly rated AZ Alkmaar prospect Kees Smit.

Tottenham are among the clubs following Vasco da Gama’s young forward Rayan Vitor.

Christian Horner has approached a Formula One team about a return to the sport – but with little success, according to reports.

The Welsh Rugby Union has admitted it won’t have resolved whether or not to cut the number of Wales’ professional club sides from four to two before the start of the national side’s November Tests, raising the likelihood of a significant distraction for new head coach Steve Tandy.

THE ATHLETIC

Liverpool goalkeeper Alisson will likely be out until the November international break after sustaining a hamstring injury.

Premier League chief Richard Masters believes domestic leagues are in a “struggle” with FIFA for fans’ attention and players’ time, with the global governing body still not listening to concerns about fixture congestion and player welfare.

Tottenham Hotspur are confident in reaching an agreement with midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur over a new contract.

SCOTTISH SUN

Celtic could face disciplinary action from UEFA after fans unfurled a banner accusing the governing body of being “complicit in genocide”.

DAILY RECORD

Legendary manager Rafa Benitez has been endorsed as a perfect option for Rangers or Celtic – six months on from being linked with the Ibrox hotseat.

Borussia Monchengladbach have opened talks with Lutz Pfannenstiel to appoint him as their new sporting director. Pfannenstiel had previously held talks with Aberdeen and declared his interest in their vacant director of football position.

Sunday Supplement on Sky Sports News

Sunday Supplement is back on Sky Sports News, bringing you the latest and best analysis from the latest football stories.

Dharmesh Sheth is joined by the best journalists from the Sunday papers to offer their expert insight.

Join them from 9am to 11am every Sunday for the new-look Sunday Supplement.

PHILADELPHIA — Eagles receiver A.J. Brown took responsibility Wednesday for letting his “frustrations boil over” Sunday and stated that his post on social media wasn’t directed at anyone inside the building, including quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Brown declined to speak with the media after a 31-25 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in which he finished with two catches for 7 yards on nine targets.

A short time later, he posted a quote from the Bible on X: “If you’re not welcomed, not listened to, quietly withdraw. Don’t make a scene. Shrug your shoulders and be on your way.”

It has been a relatively quiet start to the season for Brown, who has 14 catches for 151 yards and a touchdown on 28 targets. His 10.8 yards per reception is well below his career average of 15.6.

The 4-0 Eagles rank 31st in passing with 138 yards per game.

“I don’t think it’s a bad thing for wanting the ball,” he said. “It’s not just for targets or anything, to put numbers up, no. I see that we’re struggling and I’m a guy that wants the ball in those times when we can’t find a way. Give it to me. When the game’s on the line, give the ball to me. I want that, I want that pressure, I put it on myself, and I work hard for it.

“You can misconstrue whatever perspective about me, but it is what it is, and I don’t care to be honest because my teammates know that when the game’s on the line, look at me. And I want everybody in the stadium to know that. It’s not a secret. I’m not shying away from that.”

Asked about his communication with Hurts, Brown said they’ll talk through things in meetings during the week in the name of trying to get better. In-game, he said there is not much conversation between the two because Brown is not the type of player who would go up to the QB saying, “Give me the ball, give me the ball.”

“People said he was forcing me the ball because I’m complaining, but if you ask any of my teammates, I’m probably the quietest one on the sideline. I don’t even go to the huddle during the timeouts,” he said. “I try to let the game come to me.”

Hurts said his relationship with Brown is “good.” When asked to expand on that, Hurts said, “We share a great passion for this game, and we’re focused on this week.”

Hurts and Brown have a friendship that predates their time together in Philadelphia, going back to when Hurts tried to recruit Brown to come to Alabama.

Brown indicated that he is happy being in Philadelphia despite his most recent frustrations.

“Absolutely, this is home,” he said. “Unfortunately, I did it to myself. But this is my home. I love it here. But you just see frustration because we want to be great and most definitely, I want to be great as well.”

Between Archie, Peyton, Eli, and now, Arch, the Mannings have been a part of America’s football consciousness for nearly 60 years. Only one of the family’s college football rivalries, however, has included a spelling test, years of shade, and has spanned generations.

Within that lore, holding a spot that goes beyond merely an opponent, are the Florida Gators. First as haters-in-chief, then as part of the redemptive end to the family’s first college football run, Florida was there.

While Archie Manning never played Florida in three seasons with Ole Miss from 1968 to ’70, the Mannings are 2-3 as starters against the Gators. On Saturday, Texas QB Arch Manning, with a lot of family history behind him, takes his turn in The Swamp (3:30 ET, ESPN).

It will be the next entry in what was once a salty family vs. school rivalry that featured an all-time hater.

A brief history lesson

The current Cheez-It Citrus Bowl was previously the Capital One Bowl and, before that, just the Florida Citrus Bowl. While the Orlando-based game annually hosted top-10 teams and was where Georgia Tech beat Nebraska to earn a share of the 1990 national title, it is a tier under the major bowl games. Secondly, this Manning-Florida rivalry began in the era before the BCS, let alone the College Football Playoff and the nascent days of conference championship games. So, one loss could doom a season, or at the least, keep a team from a conference title and a major bowl.

Arch Manning might already know this, but it’s important to the lore of this rivalry and will make sense later.

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The visor’s world

Peyton Manning’s recruitment was a big deal. His father’s legacy in the SEC combined with Peyton’s ability made his college decision one of the biggest recruiting decisions ever in the sport. By the time Peyton landed with Tennessee in 1994, Steve Spurrier was going into his fifth season at his alma mater.

The Gators would win five of the first six SEC championships. That’s what Peyton Manning was stepping into. The Tennessee-Florida rivalry would become the SEC’s biggest game for much of the 1990s. Between 1990 and 2000, eight of the 11 meetings would be top-10 matchups.

Manning wasn’t a part of the Vols’ 31-0 loss to No. 1 Florida in 1994. In the 1995 game, Manning and the Vols bolted out to a 30-21 halftime lead only to see Florida outscore Tennessee 41-7 in the second half and lose 62-37.

“It’s a 60-minute game. They don’t stop the game after 30 minutes,” Florida tackle Mo Collins said after the game.

The refrain would be played more than “Rocky Top.”

Manning was solid in the game, going 23-of-36 for 326 yards and two scores. The problem: Florida’s Danny Wuerffel was better. He threw for 381 yards and six touchdowns.

It would be the only game Tennessee would lose that season, but it would keep the Volunteers out of the SEC title game and relegate them to the Citrus Bowl. An amazing Manning performance in an excruciating loss to Florida and a less-than-satisfying bowl trip.

Before the 1996 game, the trash talk went wild.

Florida defensive lineman Tim Beauchamp all but guaranteed victory.

“They look vulnerable, very vulnerable,” Beauchamp said before the game. “… It should get pretty ugly.”

Beauchamp also took a shot at Manning. “He gets rattled,” Beauchamp said.

Archie Manning offered advice to his son ahead of the game, saying “spend the week with a smirk on your face, have some fun,” Sports Illustrated reported at the time.

When the game between the No. 4 Gators and No. 2 Volunteers began, that smirk might have turned into a grimace. Florida went for it on fourth down on its first series and scored on a 35-yard touchdown pass. Manning was intercepted on Tennessee’s first series. He was intercepted once more in the half and the Gators built a 35-6 lead at the break.

Manning, who attempted 65 passes in the game, would lead a second-half rally. He threw for a school-record 492 yards and four touchdowns but also had two more interceptions, which came at the goal line when Tennessee was threatening to score.

“We would’ve liked to have been accused of running up the score, but it didn’t work out that way,” Spurrier said after UF held on for a 35-29 win.

The Gators would go on to win the SEC, go to the Sugar Bowl and win their first national title. Tennessee was off to the Citrus Bowl. Wuerffel, the first of many QB foils for Manning, threw for just 155 yards in the game against Tennessee, but had four touchdown passes and, crucially, no interceptions. He would go on to win the Heisman Trophy that season as well.

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How do you spell Citrus?

Just a reminder — the “Head Ball Coach” loved hating on his team’s rivals. Spurrier surely meant what he said about running up the score on Tennessee in 1996. In 1994, he called Florida State “Free Shoes U” for allegedly failing to monitor agent activity. He called Ray Goff, who coached the Georgia Bulldogs from 1989-1995 and never beat Spurrier, “Ray Goof.”

In 2015, after a fire at Auburn’s library destroyed 20 books, Spurrier said “the real tragedy is that 15 hadn’t been colored yet.”

“He’s the needler champion of the world,” former FSU coach Bobby Bowden told Mark Schlabach in 2014.

Give him a national title (that came in a rout of rival FSU) and a summer booster tour and he could be in his hating bag like he was when he uttered his most famous barb.

“You can’t spell citrus without U-T.”

The brevity. The sass. The deeper, historic context. It was Spurrier’s masterpiece of hating on Tennessee.

He also had something for Manning, who had announced he was returning for his senior season, as well.

“I know why Peyton came back for his senior year,” Spurrier said. “He wanted to be a three-time star of the Citrus Bowl.”

Despite being a No. 3 vs. No. 4 matchup, it wasn’t the wild shootout the previous two games had been. Manning was 29-of-51 for 353 yards and three touchdowns, but he also threw two picks. The Gators again shredded the Vols’ defense. Fred Taylor ran for 134 yards and Florida QB Doug Johnson threw three touchdowns in the Gators’ 33-20 win.

That was it. Manning would never beat Florida. He lost five games as a college starter. Three came to the Gators. Tennessee would go on to win the SEC in 1997 only to be crushed in the Orange Bowl by Nebraska. Ironically, due to losses to Georgia and LSU, Florida would land in the Citrus Bowl.

“It bothers me that we never did beat Florida, but hey, I can’t control the way other people view Tennessee or view my career,” Manning said after the game. “I’m sure Coach Spurrier will go make a few more jokes. That’s fine. He’s got a good ballclub.”

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Eli’s coming

In the moments after Peyton Manning’s last game against Florida, Archie Manning was feeling the weight of watching his son’s very public athletic struggles.

”Everybody talks about how great and wonderful it is to be at all the games and see your son playing. But I’ll tell you something: It ain’t all it’s cracked up to be,” Archie Manning told The New York Times afterward.

”Sometimes I wish someone would just knock me out and tell me what happened when it was over. This wasn’t fun.”

Five years later, in 2002, Peyton Manning was going into his fifth season with the Indianapolis Colts, and Spurrier was about to start his ill-fated tenure as an NFL head coach. After being turned down by then-Denver Broncos coach Mike Shanahan and then-Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops, Florida hired Ron Zook, a longtime assistant in college and the NFL, to replace Spurrier.

After choosing Ole Miss, his father’s school, and becoming the starter as a sophomore in 2001, this is what Eli Manning was stepping into for his first crack at the Gators in 2002.

While the game featured two eventual Heisman Trophy finalists and Super Bowl QBs in Manning and Florida’s Rex Grossman, it was not an aerial bonanza like those in which Peyton played.

Manning was 18-of-33 for 154 yards and no touchdowns, and Grossman was 19-of-44 with two touchdowns and four interceptions. One of those picks was returned for the winning touchdown.

The 2003 game allowed Manning to exact a bit of vengeance on his family’s nemesis. It would also mean a return to The Swamp for the Mannings. Following Peyton’s last game there, Archie Manning claimed he’d never go back. But he was there nonetheless.

“[Archie] had one last trip and he got to end it on a good one,” Eli Manning said after the game.

In the 20-17 Ole Miss win, Manning threw for 262 yards and led a 50-yard scoring drive to win the game. The lore of the family history and status of the Gators was, perhaps, not lost on Eli Manning who got a shot on Florida afterward.

“That team is beatable,” he said after the game. “They’re really not the team they were a couple of years ago when they had [Danny] Wuerffel and all of those other guys.”

That Manning ended 2-0 against Florida.

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Next Manning up

Prior to the 2025 season, when Arch Manning was the preseason favorite for the Heisman, Spurrier found a little more hating in his heart.

“They’ve got Arch Manning already winning the Heisman,” Spurrier said on the “Another Dooley Noted” podcast. “My question is, if he was this good, how come they let Quinn Ewers play all the time last year? And [Ewers] was a seventh-round pick.”

Spurrier might have been right. Prior to putting up huge numbers against Sam Houston State, Manning was 124th out of 136 QBs with a 55.3% completion rate and struggled in his only other road start at Ohio State. On the other side, Florida is 1-3 after starting the season ranked No. 15 in the AP, and coach Billy Napier is on the hot seat.

Saturday will mark 22 years to the day since a Manning played the Gators. While Arch Manning has not yet met the preseason hype, he will have his chance to continue the family winning streak and another rancorous chapter to the rivalry.

Boxing legend Steve Collins has backed his son to resume the family rivalry with Chris Eubank Jr.

Steve Collins Jr will be looking to make a statement when he returns to action in Glasgow on Saturday.

He hopes to eventually reprise the rivalry of their fathers, Steve Collins and Chris Eubank, in just the same way that Conor Benn has done with Eubank Jr.

Collins senior beat Eubank in their two world title fights in 1995, as well as defeating Nigel Benn twice, too.

His son, Collins Jr, is putting defeats to good fighters like Nathan Quarless and Padraig McCrory behind him.

“He’s been out there in the wilderness, taking a lot of fights he shouldn’t have fought,” Collins Sr told Sky Sports. “He wants to get the breaks and he wants to get out there on the big stage and get the opportunity to fight the big names.

“He has to showcase himself,” Collins continued. “When people see him out there, see what he’s like, see what he can do, let the public look for the fight. Let them say Steve Collins Jr-Chris Eubank Jr, can this happen?”

While he boxed McCrory at super-middleweight and Quarless at cruiser, Collins Jr is a light-heavyweight. Eubank Jr is boxing Conor Benn down at middleweight but Collins Sr believes moving up through divisions will benefit him.

“Chris Eubank Jr will probably be more comfortable at light-heavyweight because he’s tall, he’s got a big physique and he really struggles to boil down to make the lighter weight. He’s doing it and it’s hard for him. At light-heavyweight he’s stronger, I think he’ll be a better fighter,” Collins said.

“It’s up to Chris Eubank Jr. Steve Collins Jr wants it. He’s adamant and confident that he can beat him. Let’s find out.”

Eubank and Benn’s fight at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in April showed that a family legacy like theirs can lead to a thrilling, compelling 12-round battle.

“They’ve got a family pride. They don’t want to let the family down,” Collins said. “When I sat and watched that fight, they showed so much determination and heart. I just thought wow, these kids don’t have to do this, they choose to do this. That’s amazing. My son doesn’t have to do it, but he wants to do it.

“At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter who their parents are, who their dads are, when that bell rings you’ve got to be able to fight,” he continued.

“So far the three sons have all shown that they can fight and they’ve all got heart and to me that is a very rare thing. They’re three sons of three world champions, come to fight and can fight.

“I just think that’s amazing.”

SANTA CLARA, Calif. — The San Francisco 49ers began laying the path to quarterback Brock Purdy becoming the highest-paid player in franchise history roughly four years before it happened.

In the 2021 offseason, the Niners decided quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was not in their long-term plans — just three years after they made him the league’s highest paid player ($27.5 million per year).

General manager John Lynch told ESPN last week that he and coach Kyle Shanahan combed through three-year projections from executive vice president of football operations Paraag Marathe, assistant general manager Brian Hampton and their staffs, showing them that the quarterback market was about to explode.

The 49ers also had multiple star players heading toward position-defining contracts, which, combined with Garoppolo’s injury history and limitations made the choice academic, according to Lynch.

It was time to move on to someone younger and cheaper.

“We felt like if we got a quarterback on a rookie deal, we could put together a team that would be really hard to deal with,” Lynch said. “When you have that, it’s a lot easier to have a lot more stars across the rest of your roster. Not just stars, but high-end depth, which we’ve had for a long time.”

In today’s NFL, top-end quarterback contracts have become onerous enough that teams, like the 49ers, must begin planning years in advance for those cap-eating deals. It often requires a roster reset that includes sacrificing good players, a willingness to eat dead money to remove players who might not be producing equal to their deal and focusing on earning compensatory draft picks to have more shots at drafting talented, cost-controlled players to replace those who move on.

After Shanahan and Lynch decided to move on from Garoppolo, they drafted Trey Lance. The hope was Lance would develop into one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league.

While it didn’t quite pan out that way, the 49ers’ financial reckoning at quarterback still arrived this offseason in the form of Purdy, who signed a five-year, $265 million deal in April that includes $181 million in guarantees.

What resulted was one of the most dramatic roster resets in NFL history. The Niners said goodbye to nearly 20 players, 15 of whom landed deals elsewhere worth up to a maximum of $341.5 million.

To replace those departed contributors, the 49ers focused on the 2025 NFL draft and rebuilding their defense. It was a roster reimagining following a similar blueprint of the 2023 Los Angeles Rams and 2024 Buffalo Bills, both teams that Lynch says his staff spent time studying before the offseason began.

Those Rams traded cornerback Jalen Ramsey and receiver Allen Robinson, let linebacker Bobby Wagner, defensive end Leonard Floyd, nose tackle Greg Gaines and other starters go and then used 14 draft picks to replenish the defense. After a 3-6 start, those young Rams emerged in the second half, going 7-1 on the way to making the playoffs.

The 2025 Niners (3-1) expect to endure similar bumps after resetting on the fly but remain competitive enough to contend for playoff spots while their young players develop. They’ll put that to the test Thursday (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video) against the Rams (3-1) at SoFi Stadium.

“When you find somebody that is a top-10 quarterback who can help you continually win football games, then you have to make that decision,” 49ers owner Jed York said earlier this year. “And if you do that, it just comes with consequences, and you have to figure it out.”

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Avoiding the “QB abyss”

As one of the longest-tenured general managers in the NFL, Les Snead has worked through nearly every kind of quarterback scenario for the Rams since 2012. He traded two quarterbacks taken No. 1 (Sam Bradford and Jared Goff), traded up to No. 1 to select one (Goff) and dealt for a proven veteran star in Matthew Stafford.

Snead knows what it’s like to have the franchise quarterback, what it’s like to be without one and how either scenario shapes the roster.

And though Snead has also overseen a roster reset that has yielded mostly good results, he wants it to be known that having a long-term plan at quarterback is better than the alternative.

“It is so awesome to be able to go to sleep, wake up and know that your QB, whether rookie contract or veteran, has proven he can help you win,” Snead said. “Anytime you go into the QB abyss, you jump in the deep end of the pool, and you can’t see the shore. You’re just swimming and hoping.”

For the Niners, the signs that Purdy would be the guy who helps Lynch and Shanahan sleep better revealed themselves early. Shanahan pointed to Purdy’s second NFL start, a December 2022 game in Seattle in which Purdy played through a rib injury on short rest to help clinch the NFC West, as the night he knew Purdy had what it takes to succeed.

Purdy further proved that in 2023 when he overcame a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right (throwing) elbow to lead the Niners to the Super Bowl, earn his first Pro Bowl nod and finish fourth in league MVP voting as he threw for a franchise-record 4,280 yards.

According to York, the decision to sign Purdy long-term was solidified about halfway through this past season with Lynch circling back to Shanahan once the 6-11 season concluded to ensure that was still the plan.

“You don’t burden your head coach until the season’s over and you say, ‘Hey, now comes the real big decision. Are we going for this? Is Brock our guy?’” Lynch said. “And understanding that with that, we’re not going to be able to keep the rest of our guys. That’s just the reality in our league.”

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The three-year window

The Niners began financially preparing to pay their franchise quarterback as far back as 2022, according to Lynch. Since Shanahan and Lynch arrived in 2017, they’ve worked closely with Marathe and Hampton to plan for the future in three-year windows.

Marathe, Hampton and their staffs regularly work on future projections, including the anticipated rise of the salary cap and what the cost of top players at each position might be. It helps the 49ers budget for forthcoming contracts and determine how that player might fit.

Built into those conversations is the idea that there’s a difference between what Shanahan calls the “A” players and those who might not quite reach that level. Performance, injury, other players already on the roster or some combination of the three factor into those discussions.

Some choices are easy and it played out in real time this offseason when the Niners re-signed tight end George Kittle and linebacker Fred Warner, perhaps the two defining players of this era of 49ers football.

“We go to lengths to define who we are as a team, who we want to be, and those guys check every box in terms of our mission statement on who we want to be as the Niners” Lynch said. “Where do you draw the line? That’s where it gets a little tougher.”

The result of those projections came during March’s mass exodus when the Niners said goodbye to players such as receiver Deebo Samuel, guard Aaron Banks, running back Jordan Mason, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, cornerback Charvarius Ward and safety Talanoa Hufanga, all of whom had played at or near a Pro Bowl level at some point with the Niners. They also released established veteran defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Maliek Collins and end Leonard Floyd.

All of them signed the type of middle or upper middle class deals that no longer fit the Niners modus operandi, a tacit admission that they still have good football left in them.

“We broke the NFL record for the most money in the NFL leaving our building and signing with other teams,” Shanahan said. “It shows you how good the players who left our building [were]. They weren’t just old guys that it was time to move on from. They were dudes who could really help other teams win. When you do that, that’s not the most fun thing for a coach.”

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Cleaning up the cap

After the 49ers’ loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII, Lynch, Shanahan and the team’s other top executives sat down to plan for 2024, but the conversations that happened after that defeat took on a decidedly different tone than after previous deep postseason runs.

According to Lynch and Shanahan, the Niners considered getting ahead of the forthcoming roster shake-up immediately after the Super Bowl defeat. “There were a lot of internal conversations,” Lynch said. “But we felt like our team was so primed and ready and you have to take a hard look at things.”

The Niners opted for one last stand with their core group but with an eye toward the future. It didn’t work. Their season fell apart quickly and, even as 2024 unfolded, Lynch and Shanahan knew exactly how painful the 2025 offseason was going to be.

“But even then, you can’t prep for it until you’ve been through it,” Lynch said. “There were times that you’d go home in a foul mood because of it, but you knew that it was something we had to do.”

That pain would come not just from losing key players but in eating the dead salary cap space that many of them still carried. Releasing or trading players with remaining guarantees or a prorated signing bonus on their deals results in all that money accelerating to the cap immediately.

Much like the 2023 Rams, the Niners had to be willing to absorb that dead money and once they got started, they decided to eat as much of it as possible in one fell swoop to clean up the cap for 2026 and beyond.

As of this week, the 49ers have a league-leading $99.2 million in dead money and still rank third in cash spending ($328.1 million) because of the deals for Purdy, Kittle and Warner. The dead cap is even more than the Rams ate in 2023 when they dropped to last in the NFL in cash spending ($185.9 million) while eating nearly $80 million in dead money.

That offseason, Rams president Kevin Demoff sent a letter to season-ticket holders asking for patience as they cleaned up their books for what Snead referred to as a “remodel” rather than a rebuild.

One method for offsetting all of their losses in personnel and cap space? Compensatory draft picks. That isn’t complicated but it does require patience and makes for plenty of handwringing when free agency starts and players leave without replacements coming in.

It’s no coincidence that the Rams and Niners both rank among the top six all time in compensatory selections and nobody has garnered more than the Niners’ 14 comp picks over the past three years. Over the Cap projects San Francisco to get the maximum four more comp picks through the formula in 2026, too.

As Snead is quick to point out, even when the Rams were making big trades for star players such as Ramsey and Von Miller, they were still making plenty of selections to restock the roster.

“Even in that whole ‘F them picks era,’ we probably had the third most draft picks of anyone,” Snead said. “People said we were top heavy but when you’re top heavy, you’ve really got to rely on those right players on their rookie contract to play key roles.”

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“Is it worth doing all this?”

Like Snead and the Rams, Shanahan and Lynch avoid using the word rebuild. There are too many star players on the roster with what Lynch calls “pelts on the wall” to blow it up and concede.

It’s why Shanahan gathered veterans such as Kittle, running back Christian McCaffrey, left tackle Trent Williams, Warner, defensive end Nick Bosa and fullback Kyle Juszczyk at his house for an offseason dinner. He wanted not only to share the plan, but for them to take ownership in helping that wave of youth learn.

“The cool thing about this is we still have a bunch of those other players that we didn’t have when we started this,” Shanahan said. “But we do have to develop these guys and make them turn into the types of guys who just went other places.”

In one more way, the Niners followed the Rams blueprint: most of their offseason was centered on rebuilding the defense, especially upfront, while maintaining continuity on offense.

In 2023, the Rams spent two of their first three picks on pass rushers Byron Young and Kobie Turner. They followed in 2024 by using their first two picks on linemen Jared Verse and Braden Fiske. Snead says that was by design because the Rams value the defensive line.

Like the Rams, the Niners also put a premium on the defensive line with Lynch often citing advice that former Colts, Browns and Giants general manager Ernie Accorsi once gave to John Elway about focusing on getting a quarterback and guys who knock the quarterback down.

That, combined with the rising costs of defensive linemen, left the Niners to spend three of their first five picks on end Mykel Williams and tackles Alfred Collins and CJ West. All of their first five selections were defenders.

When the 49ers opened the season on Sept. 7, they had eight new starters from 2024’s opening night. Coordinator Robert Saleh, whom Kittle calls the team’s biggest offseason addition, wasn’t sure what to expect in the opening weeks from his revamped defense.

Through four weeks, the 49ers’ offseason roster reset has yielded a 3-1 record, albeit with plenty of visible warts. In many ways, that, too, was something the Niners saw coming.

For this season to be a success, much will depend on whether the remaining stars can be healthy and produce until/if those young players ascend. Much of that also falls into the lap of the quarterback the Niners planned to pay long before they even had him on the roster: Purdy.

“You’ve got to ask yourself, is this quarterback worth doing all this?” Lynch said. “And in our case, it’s not a burden because you have your franchise quarterback and we all know how important that is to your team.”

Gervonta “Tank” Davis is one of the best fighters in boxing and only 30 years old, but he recently hinted at the possibility of retiring from the sport. “It’s close,” he said during an interview with Stephen A. Smith on “First Take” in February. Davis will face Jake Paul in an exhibition match on Nov. 14, but what about after that? Will he really retire?

With that in mind, Lamont Roach Jr., who fought Davis to a controversial majority draw on March 1, is moving on from waiting for a rematch and is looking to fight a former Davis opponent, Isaac “Pitbull” Cruz. But how close is that fight from happening?

WBO junior welterweight champion Teofimo Lopez Jr. and WBC lightweight champ Shakur Stevenson have been calling each other out for a fight this year. While they have a verbal agreement, will the fight happen?

Newly crowned undisputed super middleweight champion Terence Crawford has a decision to make after outpointing Canelo Alvarez on Sept. 13 to win the titles. Will he stay at 168 pounds, move down to 154, where he fought before Canelo, or explore the 160-pound division in a quest to win a title in a sixth division?

On Nov. 22, on one of the best boxing cards to include four title matches, Brian Norman Jr. defends his WBO welterweight title against Devin Haney. With both fighters looking to make a statement in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, will the fight end in a KO?

Andreas Hale answers these questions and more, separating what’s real and what’s not.

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Real or not: Gervonta Davis will fight again after the Jake Paul fight

Not real. I hope I’m wrong about this, but Tank just hasn’t seemed all that interested in boxing lately and has long discussed an early retirement from the sport. He has made it clear that he fights for financial gain and competing for legacy is simply not what motivates him.

“After next year, I’m out of this … out of the sport,” Davis said in an interview with Fight Hub TV before his majority draw with Roach. And rather than face Roach in an immediate rematch, Davis opted to fight in an exhibition with the much larger Paul. The Paul fight has been on his radar for quite some time, and the massive payday that will accompany it could see Davis comfortably retire. Or, at the very least, he could sit on the sideline until an even bigger fight materializes. Unfortunately, that means fights against top boxers such as Stevenson, Haney and Lopez won’t happen any time soon. Maybe a 2026 fight with Manny Pacquiao would provide enough financial upside to entice Davis back into the ring. As of now, it’s difficult to see a fight motivating Davis to continue fighting after Paul.

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Real or not: Teofimo Lopez Jr. will fight Shakur Stevenson next

Real. Even though an August fight between Lopez and Haney fell apart, the idea that Lopez avoids opponents is greatly exaggerated. People thought he was over his head for calling for a fight with Vasiliy Lomachenko. He rose to the occasion in 2020 and dethroned a pound-for-pound great. He did the same thing in 2023 when he stepped up to fight Josh Taylor. As for Stevenson, he’s been salivating for a big name to call him out.

This fight has been teased a few times in recent weeks, and the two fighters seemingly agreed to it during the Canelo-Crawford postfight news conference. ESPN spoke with Lopez at the news conference, and he said he intends to fight Stevenson in early 2026.

Lopez and Stevenson know what’s at stake, as the winner will not only move up the pound-for-pound ladder but also could get a chance to become a true box office draw. Both have a lot to prove to the world and appear ready to settle their differences in the ring in one of the first big fights of 2026.

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Real or not: Terence Crawford’s next fight will be at 160 pounds

Real … if he fights again. After he beat Canelo last month to become the first men’s fighter in the four-belt era to be undisputed champion in three weight classes, it’s difficult to see what Crawford can do for an encore. People have been clamoring for Crawford to move up to light heavyweight to fight WBC champion David Benavidez or WBO, IBF and WBA champ Dmitry Bivol, but even “Bud” knows his limits and summarily dismissed the idea of moving up in weight again. Crawford moved up to super middleweight only because he realized that Canelo was a “small” 168-pound fighter. Now that he’s accomplished what many said he couldn’t, his business at super middleweight appears to be complete. It would probably be a tough task to get back down to 154 pounds, but there’s one weight class that he skipped. If he wants to chase a world title in a sixth division, he could fight at middleweight.

The first thought is that there isn’t a 160-pound world champion with a big name, as Carlos Adames (WBC), Erislandy Lara (WBA) and Janibek Alimkhanuly (WBO & IBF) are the current titleholders. But keep in mind that in Crawford’s fight right before Canelo, he faced Israil Madrimov — a champion but not a big name and a very high-risk, low-reward opponent. If there’s a world title up for grabs and a chance to add to his legacy, Crawford is interested. Also, given the time that Crawford takes between fights, it’s possible that a more enticing option emerges or one of the middleweight champions becomes undisputed. That being said, Crawford just celebrated his 38th birthday and won’t hang around much longer. But if he does continue his boxing career, it will only be to make more history.

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Real or not: Lamont Roach Jr.’s next opponent will be Isaac Cruz

Real. Once it was clear that the proposed August rematch with Gervonta Davis was off the table, Roach and his team went to work to secure a fight to capitalize on the momentum he gained in the draw against Davis back in March. ESPN learned that Roach had been linked to a fight with Gabriel Flores, but it was never finalized. Sources have told ESPN that it’s increasingly likely Roach will face former Davis opponent Pitbull Cruz. Sources told ESPN there are still many details to iron out before the fight becomes official, including the date, location and if the fight is strong enough to headline a PBC on Prime Video pay-per-view.

Sources also said both sides want the fight to take place before the end of the year, but dates and venues are limited. The fight is being targeted for December, but other variables are unknown. If the fight is finalized, it will be the perfect matchup for Roach. Facing a former Davis opponent will bring name recognition, and the matchup could deliver an exciting fight for the fans.

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Real or not: Brian Norman Jr. vs. Devin Haney will end by KO

Not real. It’s no secret that Norman has fight-altering power with 22 of his 28 wins coming by knockout and his three most recent fights ending inside the distance. However, Haney is far better than anyone that Norman has faced in his career. While Haney’s performance against Ryan Garcia last year was hard to watch, he did pick himself up off the canvas three times against Garcia — who was later fined and suspended for PED use after the fight — and he made it to the final bell in a loss that was rightfully overturned to a no contest.

Haney’s unwillingness to engage during his May fight against Jose Ramirez may have people questioning if the Garcia fight damaged him beyond repair. But Haney is a very, very good and technically sound boxer with a sharp jab, solid defense and great footwork. Norman will need to be fundamentally sound in order to earn the win, and chasing a knockout could see him get outclassed by Haney. This will likely be a chess match where both fighters are cautious. It’s possible that one of them can hit the deck, but I don’t see a scenario where the judges won’t be needed to determine the outcome.