Category: Sports

It’s time to be very wrong. After six long months without the NFL, Week 1 is finally upon us. And like everyone else, I’ve had all summer to digest free agency and the draft, read all the preseason hype and form strong opinions about what will and won’t happen in 2025. I have my 14 playoff teams and my Super Bowl pick ready.

I’m just getting there a little differently. As fellow analysts and fans make their playoff predictions over the summer, they’re usually way more conservative than what plays out in reality, leaning heavily on the teams that made the playoffs the previous season. While there certainly are teams that are perennial visitors to the postseason, a lot of weird things can happen in a 17-game season. If you head to ESPN BET right now, though, 13 of the 14 teams that made the playoffs last season are favorites to make it back again, with the Steelers as the lone exception.

Instead, this column is going to try to use what history tells us to structure my predictions differently, even if it steers me to picks that feel less pleasant than the favorites from 2024. We’re entering Year 24 of the 32-team era, and while the NFL has added an extra regular-season game and a third wild-card entry, teams have spent that time in the same divisions and roughly the same playoff format. We have a reasonable idea of how much variance we’re likely to see from year to year and how the playoff bracket is likely to shift. What if I lean into that as the basis for making my predictions?

That all starts with one fact: From 2002 to 2023, an average of 7.9 of the 14 teams that qualified for the playoffs — or that would have gone to the playoffs as the 7-seed if the league had moved to a 14-team playoff format in 2002 — made it back the following season. I’ll round that up to eight. My first constraint for picking playoff teams starts there: I’m allowed to pick only eight teams from the 2024 playoffs to make it back.

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There will be a few more constraints and rules based on history, and I’ll get to them in a minute. But first, let’s talk about last season, which was a disaster in the best sort of way. I used that eight-team rule when I put together the 2024 playoff bracket, and it wasn’t a great time to do so. Ten teams made it back to the postseason, which was just the fourth time since 2002 that 10 of the top seven seeds in each conference did so. All four AFC division winners repeated, just the third time each division winner had run it back in either conference across 44 tries.

Meanwhile, the top two seeds in the NFC from 2023 missed the postseason: The 49ers and Cowboys went from the top of the conference to out of the playoffs entirely. Just two of the six teams I had leaving the postseason (the Dolphins and Browns) actually failed to make it back to the playoffs. Crucially, I had the Eagles missing the postseason, which turned out to be extremely wrong. I’ve already covered what I missed in my likely-to-decline column from mid-August, so I won’t hit that again.

And yet, while I was unquestionably wrong, the misses from last year still reinforce why it’s interesting to think about things this way. It seems absurd in hindsight to pick the Eagles to miss the playoffs. But it would have been even more ridiculous to pick the 49ers — another perennial NFC playoff contender coming off a trip to the Super Bowl — to not make the postseason. However, that’s exactly what happened, in part because the Niners were hit with the most injuries of any team.

Picking the Bears to make the postseason wasn’t smart, as proved by their disastrous 1-9 run after the Hail Mary loss to the Commanders on Oct. 27. But teams that add the right young quarterback can catch fire and accelerate faster than anyone expects, as evidenced by the team that fatefully beat Chicago that day: Washington jumped from 4-13 to 12-5 and a spot in the NFC Championship Game. Like the Bears, the Commanders were on my list of teams likely to improve in 2024, but I didn’t think Washington had the defensive firepower to make that sort of leap. And as it turned out, Jayden Daniels was much better as a rookie than consensus top pick Caleb Williams.

OK, so 2024 was bad. I’ll try to be better. If eight of the 14 playoff teams from last season are making it back to the postseason, which eight should keep their calendars open in January? And what does history tell us about which unlikely teams have the best shot of rising up and joining the playoff field? Let’s take a shot in the dark at projecting how the 2025 playoff field could look.

Jump to a section:
Eight 2024 division winners
Six 2024 wild cards
Three long shots to watch
Three other new playoff arrivals
Barnwell’s Super Bowl pick

2024 division winners: Will they make it back?

As I mentioned earlier, I’m adding some extra constraints here to further emulate history. While it’s always unlikely that any given playoff bracket will look exactly like the historical averages from the past 20-plus years, this best guess is going to work off them as a baseline for making my 2025 playoff predictions.

Quick: In the eight-division era, how often have division winners made it back to the postseason? When thinking about teams such as the Tom Brady-era Patriots and the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs winning division titles every year, it might feel like the vast majority of champs make it back to the postseason.

Well, the teams with the best quarterbacks of their generation do make it back, but they’re the exceptions, not the rule. Since 2002, just over 44% of division winners won their division again the following season, a figure that has risen slightly to 47.5% over the past 10 years. In other words, it’s generous to suggest that half of the teams that won their divisions in 2024 will do so again. Six of the eight division winners achieved that feat from 2023 to 2024, the first time that has happened since 2013 to 2014.

What about getting into the playoffs whatsoever? Since 2002, just over 60% of teams that won their divisions made it back to the postseason the following season, either by winning their division again or finishing as the 5-, 6- or 7-seed in their conference. While I understand teams didn’t really treat the 7-seed as particularly meaningful before the league moved to the 14-team playoff format, those teams were generally competitive and were in the playoff race until late in the season, so I’m willing to include them for this analysis.

Conveniently, those numbers divide into eight quite comfortably, which makes it easy to add two more constraints from history to our list as we put together our predictions. If the division winners rise and fall the way recent history suggests, I need to pick four division winners to retain their crowns and stay atop their divisions and one more division winner from 2024 to claim a wild-card spot. Yes, if history’s correct, that leaves three 2024 division winners that will miss the 2025 postseason entirely.

Well, no better time than now to start making picks. I’ll run through those eight division winners and sort them into those three pots.

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My pick for 2025: In the playoffs (AFC West champions)

You probably could have guessed where I’d start. While I understand concerns that the Chiefs are vulnerable to a push by the Broncos or the Chargers — and I have Mahomes & Co. as the most likely team to decline — I’m not about to pick any other team to win the AFC West.

Even if the Chiefs aren’t quite as dominant in one-score games, the arrival of two real-life left tackles in Josh Simmons and Jaylon Moore means major upgrades on what was a turnstile situation on Mahomes’ blindside last season. I’m a little concerned about the secondary with the departure of Justin Reid, but the Chiefs will be just fine. They won’t go 15-2 again, but anything short of 11 wins would be a major surprise.

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My pick for 2025: In the playoffs (AFC East champions)

Another team in the middle of a lengthy streak as divisional champs, the Bills will aim to claim their sixth straight AFC East title. There’s a much larger gap between Sean McDermott’s squad and the rest of the division on paper, which should give the Bills more of a cushion for things to go wrong. Teams with outlier turnover margins usually decline, which should be concerning given that Buffalo posted a league-best plus-24 turnover ratio last season, but the combination of playing from ahead and McDermott’s coaching has turned this defense into one that breaks rules.

Defenses built on creating a lot of takeaways often struggle to keep that up year after year, but the Bills have been an exception. They led the league in turnover rate on defense in 2023 and 2024, and they haven’t been out of the top seven since 2019, despite changing the vast majority of their defensive personnel over that span. It might be unrealistic to expect Josh Allen and the offense to turn the ball over just eight times all season again, but even with that turnover margin regression, Buffalo should be all good atop its division.

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My pick for 2025: In the playoffs (NFC East champions)

There’s no better example of how blindly picking division champs to retain their titles can go wrong than the NFC East, where no team has won back-to-back division championships since the Eagles did it in 2003 and 2004. If you think fate is conspiring to contort this into reality on an annual basis, I wouldn’t blame you; remember that the Eagles made the Super Bowl in 2022, started 10-1 in 2023 and still managed to miss out on a division title when they went 1-5 down the stretch and opened the door for the Cowboys.

I’m a little more skeptical of the Eagles repeating than the public. There should be real concerns about their defensive depth. Linebacker Nakobe Dean isn’t going to be available to start the season because of a torn patella. Plus, 44% of the defensive snaps played by members of the Eagles last season went to players who aren’t on the 2025 roster, including key contributors such as end Josh Sweat, cornerback Darius Slay, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and tackle Milton Williams. With the most expensive offense in football history on the other side of the ball, the Eagles weren’t realistically able to replace those veterans with talents of a similar caliber this offseason.

Of course, general manager Howie Roseman can still call on one of the league’s most exciting young cores of defensive talent. The sort of mind-melting collapse Philadelphia showed on defense in the second half of 2023 shouldn’t occur again with Vic Fangio in charge. Outside of a dramatic rash of injuries, there’s nothing to be nervous about with the offense, which returns 10 of 11 starters. And I think the gap between the Eagles and the rest of the division might be bigger than it seems, which should help them ease into another NFC East crown.

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My pick for 2025: In the playoffs (AFC North champions)

If Lamar Jackson stays healthy, the Ravens are winning a lot of games. He has gone a whopping 70-24 as a starter in his pro career, good for 12.6 wins per 17 games. In his seven seasons with the Ravens, he has won four division titles in the five in which he wasn’t sidelined by a late-season injury, coming up one game short of a fifth in 2020. Baltimore went 3-8 with Jackson sidelined down the stretch in 2021 and 2022, costing itself what might have been two more divisional titles in the process.

Jackson wasn’t the only one staying healthy last season. The Ravens were the league’s healthiest team by adjusted games lost on both offense and defense, per the FTN Football Almanac. In fact, the 2024 Ravens were the least-injured team since 2017. That’s going to get lost in the shuffle — no fan has ever crowed after the season about how healthy their favorite team was — but it’s going to be almost impossible for the Ravens to sustain.

This team’s ceiling and floor are still high enough to be favorites to win the AFC North again, but expect more injuries to be the cause if they do fall short.

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My pick for 2025: In the playoffs (NFC wild card)

With my four division retainers already claimed, I was left with one of the four remaining winners to push into the playoffs as a wild-card team. Of those four, it seemed clear to pick the Lions, who could fall off from their 15-win season and still have plenty left in the tank to make it to the postseason. Despite losing just about every pass rusher and cornerback they had on the roster by the time the defense finally fell apart in the playoffs, an inspired effort from D-coordinator Aaron Glenn and an inspired offense fueled by coordinator Ben Johnson was enough to consistently get the Lions over the hump on a weekly basis. They dominated bad teams and reliably beat good ones.

The Lions should still be among the league’s best teams, although they probably won’t ride their luck to another 7-2 mark in one-score contests. The defense can’t possibly be as injured as it was a year ago, but the offense was one of the league’s healthiest, and there are real questions about the new-look interior of their O-line. It’s tough to envision a scenario in which the Lions don’t take some sort of hit after losing both Glenn and Johnson to head-coaching gigs. That could be just enough to open the door for one of the teams below them in the NFC North, although I won’t spoil which one just yet.

That leaves me to project three 2024 division winners to miss the postseason entirely. Two of them defied that fate last season. Can they keep it up again?

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My pick for 2025: Out of the playoffs

I was skeptical of the Texans last season. And while they managed to hold onto their division title and win a playoff game for the second consecutive year, I don’t regret holding that opinion. The hype about the additions of wideout Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon overshadowed an underwhelming offensive line. General manager Nick Caserio nailed a couple of his young additions to the secondary, and edge rusher Danielle Hunter was excellent in his debut season with Houston, but a team that was among the league’s oldest in 2023 didn’t have as many breakout candidates as it seemed.

The Texans posted a zero point differential, fell from 12th to 16th in DVOA and went 5-6 outside their division. But while they weren’t great, nobody in the AFC South was able to give them any competition. The Texans went 5-1 inside the division, with four of those five wins coming by four or fewer points. A couple of those might not have been quite as close as they seemed, but they weren’t able to consistently separate from the Colts and Jaguars.

It’s entirely possible the AFC South doesn’t offer any real competition this season, either, but I’m (perhaps foolishly) more optimistic that the Jaguars and Titans can look like competent teams. Caserio has completely turned over the offensive line, but the Texans are relying on young players who haven’t been good during their time in the league, unproven rookies and veterans who were cap casualties or castoffs elsewhere.

In a vacuum, without needing to pick three division winners to miss the postseason, I’d probably still peg the Texans as the favorites to win the AFC South, if only because C.J. Stroud offers such a high floor at quarterback. If I’m operating under the idea I need to pick three division winners to miss the postseason entirely, though? Houston seems more vulnerable than any of the five teams I picked above.

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My pick for 2025: Out of the playoffs

The factor making the Rams so difficult to project is uncertainty. If you could guarantee that we were about to get a healthy season from 37-year-old quarterback Matthew Stafford, there would be a much easier conversation to have about the Rams making it back to the postseason. Sean McVay’s track record is virtually unimpeachable: The Rams have made six playoff appearances in eight years with the superstar coach at the helm, including four division titles over that span.

While the Rams are saying the right things about Stafford’s back heading into Week 1, the organization played the injury down throughout the offseason, only for Stafford to repeatedly miss practices with the issue. On top of that, left tackle Alaric Jackson missed virtually all of training camp with blood clots in his legs before returning to practice last week.

The Rams are a top-heavy team, and when those stars struggle to stay healthy, there’s the potential for a season like 2022, when the offensive line went to shambles and many of the Rams’ highest-paid players were done for the year by November. I’m not sure that sort of injury reckoning is coming for the Rams or any other team in the league, but I’m concerned enough about Stafford to leave the Rams out of the playoffs if I have to pick three division winners to spend January at home.

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My pick for 2025: Out of the playoffs

Here’s where I’m tormented by my own format and forced to choose something that doesn’t feel comfortable. The Buccaneers were objectively the best team in the NFC South last season. In addition to finishing two games ahead of the Falcons for first place, Tampa Bay posted an 11.1-win Pythagorean expectation, suggesting they were actually better on a snap-by-snap basis than their 10-7 record. They were 11th in DVOA amid a division where the three other teams finished 20th (Falcons), 22nd (Saints) and 30th (Panthers). Ask me who I think will win the NFC South outside of this exercise and I’d pick the Bucs.

Within this process, though, I’ve got to pick the three division winners I have the least confidence in as the ones who will miss the postseason. And it’s tough for me to have more confidence in the Bucs than I do in the Lions, Ravens or any other team in the top five, even if I’m optimistic about what Tampa Bay is capable of doing in 2025. Maybe history is telling me I’m too locked in on a 10-win Bucs team holding onto their division title in an NFC South where everybody gets to play an easy schedule.

Of course, if I put my mind to it, it’s not impossible to imagine a scenario where the Bucs miss out on what would be their sixth consecutive playoff appearance. They’re already battling injuries to Tristan Wirfs, Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan, and new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard doesn’t live up to the departed duo of Dave Canales and Liam Coen (both of whom were hits as coordinator). A defense that was league-average last season doesn’t make up the difference. And while the Bucs are competitive, the eventual NFC South champions land on major upgrades at key positions — but we’ll get to that team later.

So, we’ve got five of our 14 playoff teams in the books. But after breaking down the divisional winners from 2024 and what trends say about their chances of making it back to the postseason, it’s time to move on to last season’s wild cards.

What about the 2024 wild-card teams?

Going back to 2002, if we include that seventh-ranked team in each conference as a would-be playoff team, 53% of the teams that made it to the postseason as a wild card returned to the postseason the following year. That figure includes teams that rise a step further and win their division as well as teams that again finish in the fifth, sixth or seventh spots. Four of the six wild cards from 2023 made it back to the playoffs in 2024, with the Browns and Dolphins as the exceptions.

With that 53% figure in mind, we’re close to a nice round number for our next constraint in picking the playoff bracket: We can pick only three of the six wild-card teams in 2024 to make it back in 2025. Three in, three out. I’ll alternate between teams that are in and out.

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My pick for 2025: In the playoffs (NFC North champions)

Just as I was beginning to finalize this column late last week, the Micah Parsons trade knocked the Cowboys out of my provisional playoff bracket and pushed the Packers ahead of their competition in the NFC North. As I mentioned in my reaction on the Parsons trade, the Packers weren’t far off from the Lions a year ago, finishing one spot behind Dan Campbell’s team in DVOA. The Packers are the youngest team in the league on a snap-weighted age basis, so there are plenty of potential breakout candidates on the roster.

If they were missing a bit of star power, they got all they needed with the addition of Parsons, who is one of the best defensive players in football. Assuming that Parsons doesn’t miss significant time with his back issue, the Packers added the same player who made the Cowboys the best defense in the NFL when he was on the field and its worst when he wasn’t. The Packers did so while subtracting just one player from the current roster in defensive tackle Kenny Clark.

The Packers aren’t perfect, of course. Their run defense is suddenly a question mark after the departures of Clark and T.J. Slaton Jr. Jordan Love has been inconsistent, and while there are reasons to talk yourself into the guy we saw in the second half of 2023 and 2024 as the real Love, it’s entirely possible we get another year with high highs and low lows from the 26-year-old signal-caller. If we get the post-Toyotathon version of Love for 17 games, though, the Packers could be the best team in the league. With some reservations about the Lions and Vikings, I’m pushing the Packers into first place in the NFC North.

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My pick for 2025: Out of the playoffs

Vikings fans are sick of hearing about their record in one-score games, but when you go from 9-0 to 4-8 then to 8-1 across Kevin O’Connell’s first three seasons in charge, it’s going to be a significant part of the conversation. We know that’s a meaningful predictor of what happens next, so it’s tough to imagine the Vikings playing at the same level and getting the same results.

Can they keep up what we saw last season? A thrilling defense led the league in turnovers, as the Vikings jumped from 19th in turnover rate to second. That’s difficult to sustain, especially with the Vikings turning over a chunk of their secondary. This was the oldest team in football on a snap-weighted age basis, and after adding several new starters in free agency and making only three top-100 picks over the past two years, it’s tough to count on O’Connell’s team getting dramatically younger this season.

One of the places where they will get younger, of course, is at quarterback, with J.J. McCarthy taking over as the starter after missing all of his rookie year with a knee injury. The Vikings invested heavily along the line of scrimmage this offseason, and they probably won’t need to lean on their quarterback as much as they did on early downs with Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins. But we just don’t know whether McCarthy will be an upgrade on the passers who preceded him. My instinct is that he’s something close, but instead, a defensive decline and a less fortunate year in one-score contests push the Vikings back toward the middle of the NFC pack.

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My pick for 2025: In the playoffs (AFC wild card)

One of last season’s success stories from my prediction columns, the Chargers were a classic case of a team whose underlying performance and offseason changes hinted at significant improvement. While it wasn’t always pretty for Jim Harbaugh’s team, the Chargers rode Justin Herbert and the league’s top scoring defense to an 11-win season before falling to the Texans in a frustrating playoff defeat.

To be honest, the line between the Chargers and the team they’re keeping out has become razor-thin thanks to injuries. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is already out for the season (ruptured patellar tendon), as is linebacker Junior Colson (shoulder). Guard Mekhi Becton, who missed training camp with a mysterious injury, was sidelined for most of the 2021 and 2022 seasons with knee issues. Offseason addition Najee Harris‘ status to start the season is unknown after he suffered an eye injury as part of a fireworks mishap. If this feels like a worryingly Chargers start to the season, well, you’re right.

I wouldn’t be shocked if the defense took a step backward this season, even if Jesse Minter looks like one of the finer D-coordinators in the league and might be on track for a head-coaching gig. Even if that happens, though, I have more faith in Herbert and Harbaugh shouldering the load and winning games with the offense than I do with the next team on this list.

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My pick for 2025: Out of the playoffs

In 2024, the Broncos had the league’s best defense on a per-play basis, leading all teams in expected points added (EPA) per snap. Just about every meaningful player returns from that unit, and the Broncos added Dre Greenlaw and first-round pick Jahdae Barron to the mix. But we know defense is more variable than offense from year to year. Even in their dominant 2024 campaign, the Broncos had the highest variance of any defense on a week-to-week basis, per the FTN Football Almanac. The defense should still be good, of course, but Vance Joseph’s group probably doesn’t project to top the league in 2025.

Can the offense make up for any decline? Maybe. There were positives for Bo Nix last season, but the Broncos faced one of the league’s easier schedules of opposing defenses, and Nix’s successes often aligned with the friendlier matchups on the docket. Coach Sean Payton was careful to shield Nix from dropback passing situations against tough competition, and with the great defense, Nix wasn’t often asked to throw a ton from behind. When he was — including against the Bills and Ravens — the results weren’t great.

The Broncos went 1-7 versus teams with a winning record before their blowout victory at home against the Chiefs’ JV squad in Week 18; and after making it to the postseason, the Broncos will face a tougher schedule in 2025. They also went 1-6 in games decided by seven points or less — including a loss that should have been a statement win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium — although most of those narrow games looked closer than they were because of late scores by Denver that didn’t materially impact the outcome. If you think Nix takes the next step, the Broncos should be ahead of the Chargers. I’m not as confident, which is why the Broncos narrowly miss out in my bracket.

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My pick for 2025: In the playoffs (AFC wild card)

Yes, after years of skepticism, I’m finally giving in and projecting the Steelers in the playoff bracket for 2025. No, I don’t feel confident about that decision. I went back and forth between all three of the AFC wild cards and had each of them out at one point or another.

By recent Steelers standards, though, last season’s performance was more sustainable than usual. There was no stretch where they won every game despite being outgained in total yardage, and Pittsburgh went 4-4 in one-score contests. They got a remarkable season from Chris Boswell, who went a whopping 13-of-15 on field goal attempts of 50 yards or longer. And they continued to play teams close while deciding games by making fewer mistakes. Mike Tomlin’s squad won the turnover battle 12 times, a figure topped only by the Bills. With what might be charitably described as inconsistent quarterback play, they’ve won the turnover battle a league-high 39 times over the past four years — five more times than anybody else. Pittsburgh is 30-9 in those games but just 8-20-1 when they lose or draw the turnover battle.

Aaron Rodgers isn’t the quarterback he once was, and the optimism surrounding his arrival with the Jets was clearly misplaced. But he also has the best interception rate of any quarterback in NFL history. Over his final 10 games in 2024, Rodgers threw 18 touchdowns against four picks; I wouldn’t count on him to win many shootouts this season, but the Steelers just need the veteran to protect the football. That’s one of the few strengths left in his game. If Pittsburgh’s young offensive line can stay healthy, the Steelers might also be able to run the ball, which would be a welcome surprise and their path to a more well-rounded game model. I’m not sure that leads to a playoff victory, but they’re the seventh seed in my AFC bracket.

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My pick for 2025: Out of the playoffs

The Commanders are probably my controversial pick among teams to miss the postseason. I already covered the unsustainable elements of what we saw from them in 2024 in my likely-to-decline list, including a historically great performance on fourth down, an old roster without many breakout candidates, an injury rate that’s likely to rise and a much tougher schedule after a trip to the playoffs.

I would be surprised if the Commanders fell entirely to the bottom of the NFC East, of course. This isn’t like the team in 2013, when Robert Griffin III came off of a serious injury and wasn’t the same player and the offense wasn’t quite as sustainable. Outside of being spectacularly efficient and successful on fourth down, nothing about Jayden Daniels‘ success as a rookie hints toward mirage or flukiness. After adding Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel, it’s entirely possible the Commanders improve on offense in 2025 and don’t need to rely as often on those fourth-down conversions.

Simultaneously, there’s real 2024 Texans vibes here, where some splashy veteran offseason additions distract from concerns about how sustainable their performance was away from the quarterback position. There was nobody in the AFC South who could challenge the Texans as they struggled to take that next step forward, but things are going to be tougher in the NFC East with the Eagles in tow.

As promised, we’ve gone through the 14 playoff teams of last season and predicted eight to return to the playoffs in 2025: the Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Chargers and Steelers in the AFC, and the Eagles, Lions and Packers in the NFC. We’ve still got six spots left to go, so which of last year’s disappointing or underwhelming teams could make playoff runs?

Which long shots will make unexpected trips to the postseason?

Let’s look at the five worst teams in each conference. Since 2002, would you believe that 30% of those teams have made it to the playoffs (or been a seventh seed) the year after their dismal campaigns? Three teams that ranked toward the bottom of their respective conferences in 2023 managed to make it all the way to the playoffs in 2024. The AFC’s 12th-ranked Broncos and 15th-ranked Chargers pushed their way into the postseason, while the only team from the bottom five to make it out of the regular season in the NFC was the 14th-ranked Commanders.

So, time for another rule. With 10 teams to pick from and a 30% success rate, I’ll need to pick three teams that ranked in the bottom five of the AFC or NFC a year ago to make it into the postseason in 2025. In other words, three teams that won six games or less. Easy!

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My pick for 2025: In the playoffs (NFC West champions)

If last year’s Chargers were the obvious case for a fallen team likely to improve and make it to the postseason, this year’s 49ers are their natural successor. In addition to being a perennial playoff team before last year’s 6-11 season, the 49ers have a strong quantitative case for improvement. They went 2-6 in one-score games, faced the most injuries of any team by adjusted games lost and played the NFL’s toughest schedule in 2024.

This season, they’ll instead face the easiest schedule in the league. I’m not sold they have the same ceiling as the 2022 and 20223 teams because of how their core superstars have aged and some element of missing talent as a result of the Brock Purdy extension. But a healthier version of the 49ers with Robert Saleh coaching up the defense should be a significant upgrade. If the Rams do take a step backward because of their own injuries, the 49ers would be the team best positioned to pounce.

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My pick for 2025: In the playoffs (AFC South champions)

I’m running my 2024 prediction back in the AFC South, with the Jags taking over first place from Houston. They were off by only six games last season, so it’s hard to figure that could go too much worse in 2025.

In the likely-to-improve column, I wrote about how the 2024 Jaguars were one of the more unlucky teams in the league. They went 3-10 in one-score games, becoming the first team in NFL history to lose 10 games by seven points or less in a single season. They also were the second team in NFL history to produce only one multiple-turnover game all season and the first to do that with the benefit of a 17-game campaign. They’ll win more one-score games and create more takeaways in 2025, especially with Travis Hunter joining the secondary.

It feels like the Jaguars run into the Our new coach is obviously a major upgrade on our old coach cycle more than any other team, but after Trevor Lawrence endured a static and frustrating offense when healthy in 2024, the hope has to be that he gets back to his old form with Liam Coen at the helm and a more modern offensive attack. We’re not that far removed from the midway point of 2023, when the Jags were in position to claim the top seed in the AFC in November before a Lawrence injury sent them into a tailspin. Then again, we were even closer to that moment 12 months ago, and the Jags certainly didn’t look like a 1-seed at any point in 2024.

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My pick for 2025: In the playoffs (NFC wild card)

The Cowboys were going to be a wild-card team in the initial draft of these rankings, but after the Micah Parsons trade, they dropped out. And that opened a spot for the Bears. Like the 49ers and the Jaguars, Chicago is on this year’s likely-to-improve list. Unlike the 49ers and the Jaguars, though, Chicago’s quantitative case isn’t quite as strong. The Bears were 3-7 in one-score games, which isn’t ideal, but they weren’t the most injured team, didn’t play the toughest schedule in the league and weren’t subject to many once-in-an-NFL-lifetime statistics.

What I think the Bears did do, though, is make a major coaching upgrade by going from Matt Eberflus and Thomas Brown to Ben Johnson. If that turns out to be the case and Johnson unlocks the best from Caleb Williams in the process, the Bears might have significantly improved performance from the two most important positions in football. I’m not sure there’s enough in the tank to get them past the Lions and Packers, but with the Cowboys nobly sacrificing their best defensive player two weeks before the start of the season, I’m willing to believe the Bears sneak in as a wild card in 2025.

And the final three new arrivals …

With those three teams coming from toward the bottom of their respective conferences to make unexpected and unlikely postseason runs, we’re left with three open spots. They go to teams that didn’t make last year’s spectacle. Two of them will be wild cards, but we still need somebody to win the NFC South. So, let’s start there.

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My pick for 2025: In the playoffs (NFC South champions)

As I’ve mentioned, I don’t feel great about picking against the Buccaneers, but the constraints of trying to emulate a typical postseason bracket lead me to some choices that don’t feel comfortable as we sit here before the start of the season. It’s difficult to make a serious case for the Saints, who appear to be the only ones who don’t realize they’re tanking, so that leaves the Falcons and the Panthers as the two options left for the NFC South.

And if I can’t pick the Bucs, it seems easier to imagine a scenario where the Falcons exceed expectations. In part, that’s because they were better than the Panthers last season. But it’s also because we know less about their most important player in new quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who made three starts at the end of his rookie season and led the NFL in air yards per attempt (10.1). What if Penix is a top-10 QB in his first full season as a starter? That might not be the most likely outcome, especially after the Falcons just lost their top two options on Penix’s blindside at right tackle before the season. But having a signal-caller with a good skill set whom we don’t know very much about is a high-variance scenario. Penix might be a major disappointment. He also might be a star.

I wasn’t a fan of the decision to trade a second-round pick and a 2026 first-rounder to move back into the first round and grab James Pearce Jr. as a roster-building philosophy. But solely thinking about what it will mean in 2025, it’s not hard to believe the Falcons will be better at rushing the quarterback with Pearce and fellow first-rounder Jalon Walker on the edge. The Falcons were 29th in pressure rate when they rushed four or less last season.

And when Atlanta blitzed, well, the 96.7 QBR it allowed was the worst mark any team has posted in a single season on blitzes since 2007. There were only seven instances of a quarterback posting a better QBR in a single game last season. It’s almost impossible to be that bad; teams with a QBR of 85 or higher when blitzing over that time frame saw their QBR with the blitz improve by an average of more than 21 points the following season. If the Falcons actually have fixed their pass rush and landed on the right quarterback, they will have a real shot at topping Tampa Bay — even if I’m reticent to fully believe in them right now.

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My pick for 2025: In the playoffs (AFC wild card)

This one shouldn’t be quite as hard to believe. Adjusting for era, Joe Burrow just finished the third-best season in league history by passer rating for an NFL quarterback who missed the playoffs. We can’t just pencil in Burrow for a healthy, identically productive season in 2025, but there’s little reason to think his level of play is suddenly about to dramatically decline. And quarterbacks who play at that level almost never miss the playoffs.

It takes a truly horrific defense and some bad luck (or timing) to get there. Guess what? The Bengals had both last season. They went 4-7 in one-score games, blowing leads they held over the Chiefs and the Ravens in the final two minutes. Cincinnati failed on a 2-point conversion attempt to win the game with 38 seconds left against the Ravens in the rematch. And the Bengals missed two field goals that would have given them a fourth-quarter lead against the Chargers before Los Angeles’ J.K. Dobbins broke a tie on a 29-yard touchdown run with 26 seconds to go.

Heck, the Bengals were even awful on defense and special teams in their wins: They got Mossed on a fourth-down prayer from Bo Nix to Marvin Mims Jr. with 14 seconds left to send a game with the Broncos to overtime then missed a 33-yard field goal that would have won it before Burrow finally took over and prevailed in the final minute of the extra frame.

Could the Bengals take a step backward on offense, likely because of a Burrow injury? Of course. Could the defense, whose only notable veteran addition this offseason was tackle T.J. Slaton Jr., fail to flourish under new coordinator Al Golden? Sure. Cincinnati’s defense was truly awful last season despite a mammoth season from Trey Hendrickson, who created 26 sacks for himself and his teammates — nearly twice the number posted by any other edge rusher. What if Hendrickson battles nagging injuries all season after sitting out the offseason program? The Bengals could be even worse on defense in 2025.

At the same time, how many teams have the sort of ceiling the Bengals have with Burrow at quarterback? Between the 2021 and 2022 campaigns, the Bengals went 22-11 and made two deep playoff runs with him under center. Even a middling defense would probably be enough to get them back into the postseason.

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My pick for 2025: In the playoffs (NFC wild card)

Our last playoff spot goes to the Cardinals, who made massive upgrades on the defensive side of the ball this offseason. Coach Jonathan Gannon will get to work with Josh Sweat, Calais Campbell, Dalvin Tomlinson and second-round pick Will Johnson, who has looked like a potential steal at cornerback in camp. First-rounder Walter Nolen III will start the year on the physically unable to perform list with a calf injury. But the Cards will get 2024 first-rounder Darius Robinson back from his own injury-abbreviated rookie year, while BJ Ojulari returns from a torn ACL and Baron Browning settles in for his first full season with the organization. There’s suddenly a ton to work with up front for Gannon, who had to dial up all kinds of exotic looks last season to generate pressure while dealing with the league’s fourth-most injured defense.

If the defense can improve to league-average, the offense should be able to do enough to push Arizona into the postseason for just the second time since 2016. Drew Petzing’s group ranks 10th in EPA per play since Kyler Murray returned from a torn ACL in 2023. Murray posted career highs in success rate and Total QBR last season, and there’s still room for improvement from highly touted wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who had a muted rookie year. If Harrison makes the leap in Year 2, so does Arizona.

There we go! We have a 14-team playoff bracket. The Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars and Ravens are our division champs in the AFC, with the Bengals, Chargers and Steelers as the wild cards. In the NFC, the 49ers, Eagles, Falcons and Packers win their respective divisions, while the Bears, Cardinals and Lions make it as wild-card teams. But who makes it to the Super Bowl?

If you’ve been paying attention for a few years now, you might have noticed something consistent about my Super Bowl selections. I’ve picked the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl each of the past five seasons, both before the regular season begins and before the playoffs begin as well as in my Super Bowl previews after they’ve actually advanced to the title game. They haven’t won every year, of course, but I don’t regret picking the team that has won two titles and advanced to two more Super Bowls over that span.

I’m going back to that well again in 2025, even after suggesting Kansas City will decline during the regular season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs actually improve their underlying level of play, especially on the offensive side of the ball, only for that to be (more than) offset by worse luck in one-score matchups. I’m projecting a world where the Chiefs win 12 or 13 games, compete for the top seed in the AFC then run through the postseason to their fifth title.

Who will they beat in the big game? I wasn’t set on an NFC pick for most of the offseason. I try to avoid picking rematches, and while I still think the Eagles are among the best teams in the conference, I’m a little concerned about their defense taking a step backward in 2025. The Lions are a totally reasonable pick, but I’m worried about the impact losing both coordinators will have on the roster, especially with regard to Jared Goff. I’m projecting the Commanders and Vikings to miss the playoffs entirely, so they’re out too.

Then the Packers traded for Micah Parsons. Adding one of the best players in football to a team I already was excited about this year? That works for me. I projected a Chiefs-Packers Super Bowl last season, only for injuries (and the Eagles) to waylay the Packers in the wild-card round. This version of the Packers should be better. Just not good enough to beat the Chiefs, whose offensive line additions will pay off on the biggest stage.

My pick: Chiefs 24, Packers 17

Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you’re torn between two similar players and simply don’t know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.

Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?

Let’s get the bad-news response out of the way first: Week 1 is the toughest week as far as evaluating matchups. It’s commonplace for fantasy analysis to rely heavily upon the previous season’s statistics, even though that completely ignores how quickly and dramatically this game changes, especially over a seven-month offseason.

The matchup rankings below provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.

For the first three weeks, these rankings are entirely my opinion of how favorable or unfavorable I consider that matchup, though 2024 full-season data is provided to give you another snapshot into the strength of that particular matchup.

“Adj. FPA,”or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below players’ weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable, a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team’s personnel at that position.

Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my — and ESPN fantasy staff’s — most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.

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Quarterbacks

Matchups highlight: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Carolina Panthers). Though he has yet to realize the lofty potential forecasted for him at the time he was selected first overall in the 2021 NFL draft, Lawrence has proven excellent at beating up on bad opponents. In the past three seasons, he has averaged 19.8 fantasy points per game against the position’s eight most favorable matchups (using schedule-adjusted, seasonal data), compared to 15.2 against everyone else. Lawrence begins 2025 against a Panthers defense that finished a schedule-adjusted 31st against quarterbacks last season and saw only minimal improvements to its secondary during the offseason.

Others to like: Drake Maye, New England Patriots (vs. Las Vegas Raiders); C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (at Los Angeles Rams).

Matchup to avoid: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (vs. Minnesota Vikings). A relatively strong finish to his rookie season (three games of 22-plus fantasy points in his final seven), coupled with the arrival of new playcaller Ben Johnson, has many managers optimistic about Williams’ outlook entering his sophomore season. His opening-week matchup, against a Vikings defense that ranked seventh best against the position in 2024 presents quite the matchups test. Additionally, it takes place on Monday Night Football, and Williams was held beneath 10 fantasy points in all three prime-time games as a rookie. It’s best to leave him on the sidelines this week if you can.

Running backs

Matchups highlight: Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (at Cleveland Browns). He returns as the Bengals’ unquestioned starting running back, a role from which he scored the sixth-most fantasy points from Week 9 forward last season (165.0). Brown begins 2025 with a favorable matchup against the Browns, who allowed the fifth-most rushing yards in last season’s final eight weeks, an important distinction as it coincided with the absence of linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, whose neck injury will cost him all of this season as well.

Others to like: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers (at Jaguars); James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (at New Orleans Saints).

Matchup to avoid: Breece Hall, New York Jets (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers). Backup Braelon Allen‘s strong preseason has cast some doubt upon Hall’s ability to make a high-level fantasy impact, particularly how Allen’s increased third-down work signals a prospective decline in Hall’s receiving usage. The last thing fantasy managers want in their Week 1 lineups is a timeshare running back, facing one of the league’s toughest overall defenses, in a game with the week’s lowest over/under (38.5).

Wide receivers

Matchups highlight: Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Atlanta Falcons). He’s likely to play a pretty significant role in his NFL debut, especially with Chris Godwin Jr. still recovering from the dislocated ankle that prematurely ended his 2024 and Jalen McMillan sidelined with a neck injury. Egbuka received high marks for his preseason work while filling in for the two, and he’s less likely than fellow Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans to match up against Falcons No. 1 cornerback A.J. Terrell — though Evans did manage 23.2 fantasy points against Terrell and the Falcons in Week 5 last season, and therefore also gets a matchups bump.

Others to like: Jerry Jeudy, Browns (vs. Bengals); Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (vs. Miami Dolphins).

Matchup to avoid: DK Metcalf, Steelers (at Jets). The Jets might have lost cornerback D.J. Reed to the Detroit Lions via free agency, but with Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter II still on the roster and Brandon Stephens brought in to replace Reed, this secondary still rates as one of the game’s toughest. Metcalf is sure to see a large number of targets as Aaron Rodgers‘ clear No. 1 receiving target this season, but it’s unclear exactly how much Rodgers has left in the tank, not to mention that Metcalf averaged only 9.3 fantasy points against bottom-eight matchups in 2024, compared to 14.5 against everyone else.

Tight ends

Matchups highlight: Hunter Henry, Patriots (vs. Raiders). He was surprisingly heavily used last season, ranking sixth among tight ends in targets (96) and fifth in target share (19.2%), usage patterns that make him worth a look anytime he faces a matchup as favorable as this one. The Raiders surrendered the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends last season (1,107) and were 30th in Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed. Henry’s primary obstacle to a higher finish on the fantasy leaderboard was a lack of touchdowns (2), but bear in mind that the Raiders were one of four teams to surrender as many as nine touchdowns to the position in 2024.

Matchup to avoid: Colston Loveland, Bears (vs. Vikings). He’s in for a promising career, but in his NFL debut there’s too much uncertainty regarding his usage alongside Cole Kmet, and his matchup couldn’t be more challenging. The Vikings were one of five teams to hold the position to three or fewer touchdowns, and only three tight ends managed as many as 14 fantasy points in a game against them. Wait to see how heavily Loveland is used in Week 1 before slotting him into your lineups.

Few strikers in world football possess the pedigree to miss half a season through injury and still lay claim to a Golden Boot. In many ways Khadija Shaw’s scoring prowess is baffling. Hard to quantify as anything other than freakish.

The Jamaica international is a one-off with generational talent.

Despite only managing 892 minutes of league football last season, she scored 12 times, which was enough to share the coveted top scorer prize with Arsenal’s Alessia Russo, who reached the same tally but played double the minutes.

Shaw’s extraordinary run rate, a goal every 74 minutes, was the best return of any forward across the top domestic leagues in Spain, France and Germany last year.

Had she stayed fit she was projected to finish with a total of 26 strikes – the WSL record for a single campaign is 22.

And yet, Manchester City’s campaign was generally marred by impasse and indifference. “We left games last season knowing results slipped through our fingers,” Shaw exclusively tells Sky Sports from a discreet corner of Man City’s media day.

“We suffered from injuries but I’m not one to make excuses. We weren’t good enough,” she adds.

City’s 2024-25 story was told through a lens of inconsistency. Good individual results – beating eventual finalists Barcelona in the Champions League group phase – were undermined by prolonged runs of bad form. Good individual performances challenged by the depleted state of the squad more broadly.

Shaw was joined in the treatment room by Vivianne Miedema, Lauren Hemp and Alex Greenwood, among others, for large chunks of the season. City could barely field a fit senior XI by March.

Perhaps the next bit was inevitable. Or maybe the cycle under Gareth Taylor had just reached its natural end. Either way, the manager copped the brunt of the dissatisfaction and was dismissed five days before a League Cup final meeting with Chelsea, which City lost.

For a club the size of Manchester City silverware is a prerequisite. And not just feigning to compete – reaching finals is nice but not nearly enough if trophies don’t follow. Things had got stale and the time for change was clear.

“This season we’re not about that, it’s strictly business,” Shaw continues. Her tone is compelling. “Last year was humbling, we are 100 per cent serious about what we want. Ain’t no playing now.”

City have replaced departed Taylor with Andree Jeglertz this summer, a progressive coach who favours attack-minded football. And that will mean a tweak of style too.

While Taylor liked patient build-up, using ball possession to wear teams down, Jeglertz prefers a more direct route to goal.

“With Andre it’s about how we can put ourselves in the best position going forward. If that means it takes two passes to goal, we have to do that.” An interesting evolution from the ball-obsessed model.

“Andre wants us to win and will give freedom, whatever that looks like, and I think attacking players flourish that way.”

Shaw herself has been thriving in the WSL for years now, no matter City’s style or approach play. Her instinct in the box is a danger to any calibre of opposition, including Chelsea, who City face on opening weekend live on Sky Sports.

“If we can get it right on the pitch, we can be deadly, we can be unstoppable if we focus on the fine details the manager wants. For sure, you are going to see goals.”

A warning, then. And Opta’s supercomputer agrees City pose significant threat, predicting them to bounce back from the disappointment of 2024-25 to finish ahead of reigning European champions Arsenal – but still behind Chelsea.

“We’re going to attack the league, that’s only right,” Shaw insists. “It’s all about consistency, that’s what has been missing. If we need to have uncomfortable conversations we’ll have them.”

City used a total of 27 players last season – close to a league high – with an average age of 25y 313d – a league low. A lack of experience was indeed telling as they finished 17 points off WSL winners Chelsea, with their worst points-per-game ratio since their first campaign in the competition a decade ago.

Such a gap will not be tolerated this time around.

“We had been doing the same for years, now the change has actually happened, it’s a shocker to begin with. But the energy has been higher, and naturally when you don’t know what to expect you have to give everything to learn.

“Our mentality should be about crossing the line wanting and knowing we can win. We have time to prepare games without Europe so that should be our only focus.”

As for the football, the City way always has had a textbook feel. It’s no surprise to see City play the fewest percentage of passes long (6.4) of any side in the league, and the highest proportion of passes short (93.6).

City also netted a league-high 15 cross-assisted goals last season, thanks to the potency of their wide players and smartness of Shaw, while scoring more frequently from open play than even Chelsea managed.

“I can close my eyes and know where Hempo [Lauren Hemp] is going to cross the ball. That is something we have built. I call her my assister.

“It’s the little stuff most don’t see that matters. More than goals, it’s the timing of runs, the pressing, forcing defenders into mistakes. It’s all important. As soon as I’ve mastered one thing, I try another. I always want to be better.”

Much has changed at City this summer following a season of unrest. Jeglertz might be championing a new style and driving higher standards, but he will want more of the same from his star striker – arguably the best the WSL has to offer.

Jeglertz must maximise that special privilege to its absolute fullest. And if he can, we really will have a title race to remember.

DETROIT — Rookie Nolan McLean continued his brilliant start to his MLB career, retiring his final 14 batters Tuesday night to lead the Mets to a 12-5 victory over the Detroit Tigers.

McLean became the first Mets pitcher to go 4-0 in his first four starts, and just the first pitcher in the majors to do so since Chase Anderson, who started 5-0 with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2014.

After a rocky first inning, McLean finished with seven strikeouts while giving up two runs on three hits and three walks. He is the first pitcher to win his first four career starts while allowing two or fewer runs in each start since Jered Weaver, who did it in his first seven starts for the Los Angeles Angels in 2006.

“Another impressive outing for him,” manager Carlos Mendoza said. “We all saw how in that first inning, especially the sweeper and the curveball … he didn’t have command of those pitches. A couple of walks, and they got him with a couple of singles there. That’s what you call pitching. Understanding that you have to make adjustments and find a way to get through five or six innings, and he was able to do that.”

Mendoza added: “Another really good sign for a kid that is just making his fourth start at the big league level.”

McLean’s 28 strikeouts through his first four starts ranks second in Mets history behind only Nolan Ryan (29).

Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, who homered twice Tuesday night, said McLean’s work ethic has a lot to do with the incredible start to his career.

“I know everyone’s going to be talking about all the great stuff he’s doing on the field, which is for sure warranted, but how he’s going about his business, the day to day, it’s super impressive,” Alonso said.

“And that’s the reason why he’s able to do what he’s been able to do on the field. … He’s been a pro since he’s come up, and there’s no shock and awe for why he’s found his success.”

Juan Soto and Luis Torrens also homered for the Mets, who won the series opener 10-8 on Monday. New York moved five games ahead of Cincinnati for the final National League wild card.

The American League Central-leading Tigers have lost seven of nine.

Alonso’s first homer was a 435-foot drive in the first inning that landed between the first and second row of shrubs behind the center-field wall. Soto and Alonso hit back-to-back solo shots in a six-run seventh that gave the Mets a 12-2 cushion.

Soto has 37 home runs in his first season with New York, including five homers in the past five games. Alonso’s second homer was his 33rd of the year.

Jeff McNeil drove in three runs and finished with three of New York’s 17 hits. Brandon Nimmo and Brett Baty also had three hits for the Mets.

Information from The Associated Press and ESPN Research was used in this report.

Novak Djokovic crushed the hopes of American Taylor Fritz to stay on course for a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam at the US Open on Tuesday night.

Djokovic reasserted his dominance over fourth seed Fritz with a 6-3 7-5 3-6 6-4 victory to set up a blockbuster semi-final showdown against Carlos Alcaraz.

The 38-year-old arrived at Arthur Ashe Stadium having beaten Fritz in all 10 of their previous meetings but was breathing heavily at times to move past last year’s runner-up on Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Djokovic will now play in his fourth Grand Slam semi-final of the season – marking the seventh time in his career that he has achieved that feat – against in-form Spaniard Alcaraz, who hasn’t dropped a set all tournament and was a comfortable winner against Czech Jiri Lehecka earlier in the day.

Djokovic was bothered on numerous occasions by noise from the crowd while he was serving, putting his finger to his lips and blowing ironic kisses after winning the second set.

In the third he remonstrated with umpire Damien Dumusois and Fritz threatened to take the contest to a fifth set, but ultimately Djokovic had the answers.

“It was an incredibly close match, really anybody’s match,” he said. “I thought I was lucky to save some crucial break points in the second and third sets. In these matches a few points decide the win.

“Tough for Taylor to finish on a double fault, he didn’t deserve that. In many of my service games I was just trying to stay alive. I’m really proud of the fight that I put in. I wear my heart on my sleeve always.”

With victory over Fritz, the 38-year-old tied Jimmy Connors’s record by reaching a 14th semi-final here, also becoming the oldest man through to this stage since the American in 1991.

Djokovic, who had wanted a win as an eighth birthday present for his daughter Tara back home, saved five break points serving for the first set before eventually converting his second chance, raising his fist in celebration.

Serving for the second set Djokovic was again unconvincing and on his 11th break point Fritz finally converted only to play a dreadful service game at 5-5 and give the advantage straight back.

Djokovic seemed to have one foot in the semi-finals but, spurred on by the crowd, Fritz won the third set.

Strong serving from both men kept the fourth level until the 10th game, when Djokovic applied intense pressure on the Fritz serve. The fourth seed, who reached his first grand slam final here last year, saved two match points in epic rallies but double-faulted on the third.

Sabalenka to face Pegula after walkover

Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka was given a free passage through to the US Open semi-finals after Marketa Vondrousova withdrew through injury.

Less than two hours before they were supposed to meet in the night session on Arthur Ashe Stadium, the tournament announced Vondrousova was not able to take to the court.

The Czech’s withdrawal means there will be a rematch of last year’s final in the last four, with Sabalenka taking on fourth seed Jessica Pegula.

It is a bitter blow for former Wimbledon champion Vondrousova, who has struggled with injury throughout her career but had been on a great run in New York after beating Jasmine Paolini and Elena Rybakina.

In a statement via the organisers, the 26-year-old Czech said: “I am sorry to announce that I have to withdraw from my quarterfinal match this evening due to a knee injury.

“I tried my best to take the court today but during the warm-up I felt again my knee and after consultation with the tournament doctor decided not to risk aggravating the injury.

“I appreciate all the support this tournament and apologize to the fans who were looking forward to the match. I had an amazing time here in NY and can’t wait to be back next year.”

Writing on Instagram, Sabalenka said: “So sorry for Marketa after all she’s been through. She has been playing amazing tennis and I know how badly this must hurt for her. Take care of yourself and I hope you can recover quickly. Love Aryna.”

Earlier, Pegula made it back to the semi-finals in convincing fashion by beating another Czech former Wimbledon champion, Barbora Krejcikova, 6-3 6-3.

Venus’ dream US Open run comes to an end

The dream doubles run of 45-year-old Venus Williams came to an end as she and partner Leylah Fernandez were dispatched 6-1 6-2 by top seeds Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend in the quarter-finals.

Williams was aiming to win her first Grand Slam title since 2017 and her third women’s US doubles title.

The 14-time women’s doubles Grand Slam champion, playing in her 25th US Open, won the first of her two titles in New York with sister Serena in 1999, three years before Fernandez was born.

Siniakova and Townsend, bidding to claim their third Grand Slam title as a pair, will face No 4 seeds Elise Mertens and Veronika Kudermetova in the semi-finals.

“What I’m proudest of is it’s not easy to come off the bench. It really isn’t, and I have never had a layoff that long. It brought new challenges that I wasn’t ready for in so many ways. So I’m very proud that I stayed myself. I didn’t try to play another game. I didn’t try to play it safe. I went for it, and that’s who I am. I go for it. When you go for it, good things happen,” Williams said. “Perhaps I didn’t get there this time, but I know who I am, and I know that I can work once I have a little chance.”

On her future plans, Williams said: “I haven’t given that any thought. I do have commitments, places I said I’d be, people expecting me to be there the next few weeks. So I have to go and show up.

“If there is opportunity for me to play, then hopefully I can get back somewhere this year. I just don’t know. I really don’t.”

Watch the US Open in New York, live on Sky Sports or stream with NOW and the Sky Sports app, giving Sky Sports customers access to over 50 per cent more live sport this year at no extra cost. Find out more here.

BUFFALO, N.Y. — Khalil Shakir had his signature big, bright smile on his face as he opened the van door. Inside the vehicle, 19 dogs were waiting as Shakir arrived to save them from being euthanized.

On Sunday, the Buffalo Bills wide receiver helped local rescue, Nickel City Canine Rescue, with a transfer of dogs from Clarke County Animal Shelter — who has to euthanize dogs when space is needed.

The fosters who work with Nickel City Canine Rescue selected 19 dogs that they were able to save. It is the same shelter that the Shakirs’ dog, Missy, was rescued from by Nickel City, and then adopted by the family last year.

This was not the first time that Shakir and his wife, Sayler, assisted with a transport, including helping save 26 dogs in May. They have also been active in helping with dog rescues and animal welfare, especially in the western New York community.

The video of the transport that went viral came just a day after the Shakir Family Foundation held a large pet adoption event Saturday. Eight local rescues took part in the event, with a variety of Bills players attending in support, along with many members from the community. Eighteen dogs from Nickel City were adopted at the event.

It was mentioned to Shakir at the event that the transport of dogs was coming in the next day.

“[Shakir’s] eyes lit up! He said he would love to come help again,” a representative for Nickel City Canine Rescue said in an email.

The fourth-year wide receiver was also accompanied to help with the transport by his mother, Mona, and two best friends.

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Hunter Renfrow‘s phone was blowing up late last week while the soon-to-be-again Carolina Panthers wide receiver was picking up a trailer at a recycling business he helps run with his uncle in Woodruff, South Carolina.

Only he didn’t know it.

Blame “Bluey.”

Yes, the animated children’s television series played a role in Renfrow’s return to the Panthers, less than a week after he was released.

The 2021 Pro Bowler made the mistake of leaving his phone in his vehicle with his two young daughters during the trailer stop. During the 30 minutes he talked to others at the business, there were 10 missed calls from Carolina head coach Dave Canales, general manager Dan Morgan and his agent.

His daughters were too busy watching “Bluey” to answer.

“[The calls] were all just ignored,” Renfrow said.

Panthers WR Hunter Renfrow explains his path jack to the team. pic.twitter.com/owMhFc9ood

— David Newton (@DNewtonespn) September 1, 2025

Just as the adventures of the Blue Heeler puppy in the series have become popular among preschool children, Renfrow’s adventures in the NFL have become popular among sports fans.

The 2019 fifth-round pick by the Las Vegas Raiders out of Clemson went from a Pro Bowler to out of the league in 2024 while recovering from ulcerative colitis, an autoimmune disease that impacted his health to the point that the Raiders released him.

He began his comeback this past offseason with the Panthers, the only team he wanted to play for because he grew up watching them as a native of neighboring state South Carolina.

The comeback took a twist last Tuesday when Carolina released the 29-year-old receiver. Canales said at the time he didn’t believe Renfrow was ready for the 53-man roster, but made it clear he and the organization wanted the veteran back on the practice squad.

Then Carolina traded 35-year-old receiver Adam Thielen, whose traits closely resemble Renfrow’s, to the Minnesota Vikings. Thielen’s replacement, Jalen Coker, suffered a quad injury on Thursday that landed him on injured reserve, meaning he’ll miss at least the first four games.

Bringing Renfrow back made sense because he knew the system.

“It’s been a whirlwind,” said Renfrow, who agreed to return on a one-year deal on Saturday.

Renfrow likened the situation to the first opportunity he got to prove himself at Clemson in 2015 as a walk-on before going on to help the Tigers win two national championships.

“The only reason I got to play at Clemson was because Mike Williams broke his neck,” he recalled of Williams fracturing his neck when he ran into the base of the goal post against Wofford. “Which worked out fine for him because he went in the first round the next year.”

Renfrow went on to collect 186 catches, the fifth most in school history.

He hopes his story with Carolina ends just as well. He already has a pretty good spot in the locker room next to starting quarterback Bryce Young, who reached out to help convince Renfrow to return.

“He told me about his deal last year and some things that happened,” said Renfrow, reminding Young was benched after an 0-2 start. “He had a lot of perseverance stories to share.”

None involved “Bluey.”

If you don’t want spoilers for the 2025 NFL season, look away.

I typically write about the NFL in terms of probabilities — the chance the Eagles repeat as Super Bowl champions, the probability the Bengals get back to the playoffs, the odds the Browns are actually the best team in football (OK, maybe not that one).

But every so often, we need to inject certainty into a forecast. After all, the upcoming NFL season will play out only one way. So why not simulate the season one time and see what happens?

That’s what we’re doing here. We’re detailing the story of a single simulation from ESPN’s Football Power Index, which normally uses 10,000 simulations to build its projections. To be clear, this is not my prediction or ESPN Analytics’ prediction of how this season will unfold. (Vikings fans still in my mentions about Minnesota’s 4-13 record in last year’s simulation — please read that sentence.) This is simply simulation No. 4,091 — what definitely, absolutely, certainly could happen in 2025. Let’s play it out.

See FPI’s full projections for the 2025 season

Both Super Bowl LIX teams miss playoffs

Eleven months after the Chiefs and Eagles squared off in Super Bowl LIX, both teams cleaned out their lockers following Week 18. Neither managed to make it back to the playoffs, easily the shocker of the 2025 campaign in this simulation.

The Eagles were actually done before the final week. Thought to be infallible heading into the season, the Eagles were 5-4 after Week 10 — a game behind the Cowboys but still seemingly in control of their postseason destiny. But that turned into a 6-8 record, leaving Philadelphia in pure panic mode. In the end, the Eagles couldn’t make up the gap, falling short in the NFC East and wild-card battle.

The Chiefs’ collapse was much more startling. Kansas City controlled its destiny in the AFC West after beating the Broncos on Christmas Day to improve to 9-7. It needed to only to beat the Raiders to secure its 11th straight playoff spot. But Patrick Mahomes‘ clutch gene was nowhere to be found as the Chiefs fell 28-19, allowing the Broncos — who won their Week 18 game — to win the division on a tiebreaker. No wild-card bid for the Chiefs either.

The two defending conference champions weren’t the only surprising teams to miss the playoffs in 2025. The Commanders, 49ers and Packers all missed the postseason, too.

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Aaron Rodgers experiment fails, Mike Tomlin has first losing record

The Steelers’ bid for the aging superstar quarterback was always a long shot upside play. Ultimately, the poor play that started in Green Bay in 2022 and continued in New York in 2024 couldn’t be reversed.

Things started OK. Rodgers got his revenge on the Jets in Week 1, and a 3-2 start prompted optimism. But a five-game losing streak hit, with losses to the Bengals, Packers, Colts, Chargers and Bengals again. At that point, it was clear that the Steelers’ season — and Rodgers’ career — was over.

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Broncos steal AFC West crown

The AFC West wasn’t so tough after all. Despite optimism from all four teams entering the season, no one separated from the pack or put up a gaudy record. But someone had to prevail.

Denver became the first team in a decade to dethrone the Chiefs from their AFC West crown. Tied with the Chargers at 8-8 entering Week 18, the Broncos secured the division title with an 18-15 win over Justin Herbert, Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers.

The win was indicative of the Broncos’ strengths, as the offense provided just enough help for a smothering defense. Denver finished the season ranked first in defensive EPA per play.

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Cowboys win surprise NFC East title

Like in the AFC West, it wasn’t that another team took the division crown from the Eagles as much as Philadelphia being sucked into the division’s overall mediocrity. And when the Eagles stumbled, Dallas took advantage.

Maybe we shouldn’t be that surprised that the Cowboys made the playoffs (even if winning the division seemed unlikely). Though the preseason chatter was all about Micah Parsons and his eventual trade, the remaining foundation of this team still included Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Considering Prescott finished second in QBR in 2023, Dallas was always capable of having a quality offense, and it was good enough in this case to make up for missing Parsons. Young pass rushers Donovan Ezeiruaku and Sam Williams stepping up helped, too.

In the end, the Cowboys won the division with a 9-8 record, though they fizzled again in the postseason with a wild-card loss.

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Colts win AFC South; Titans earn wild card

Even in a season when the Chiefs and Eagles missed the playoffs, what happened in the AFC South turned heads. Somehow, Colts coach Shane Steichen unlocked the 2022 version of Daniel Jones, leaning on the legs of the former Giants quarterback while Lou Anarumo and the new-look secondary turned around the defense. The result was a 10-7 record and playoff berth.

But the real AFC South story was the red-hot start of Cam Ward and the Titans. Tennessee began the season 9-3 as Ward took the league by storm. He was the talk of the NFL through 13 weeks and had a lock on the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. But the Titans proceeded to rattle off a five-game losing streak as the league caught up to the rookie QB, and Tennessee limped into the playoffs with a 9-8 record.

While the Colts stole the division from the Titans, Tennessee was able to turn the tables in the wild-card round. The result? A 34-13 blowout in Tennessee’s favor at Lucas Oil Stadium.

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Ravens edge Bengals for AFC North title

With the Browns and Steelers nonfactors, it was clear by midseason that the AFC North would come down to Baltimore and Cincinnati. The race peaked in Week 15, when the two teams — then tied at 7-6 — squared off for their second meeting.

It was a classic in Baltimore. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson traded big throws against seemingly helpless defenses — the quarterbacks combined for an outrageous eight touchdown passes. But the Ravens finally got the stop they needed, and rookie Tyler Loop finished off the Bengals with a 43-yard field goal as time expired to give the Ravens a 41-38 victory. The win put Baltimore up a game in the standings and also gave it a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Bengals. It was needed, as the Ravens and Bengals both finished 10-7.

The lack of home-field advantage proved costly for the Bengals, who lost a wild-card heartbreaker in Denver 35-32. The Ravens took advantage of playing at home, dispatching the Dolphins 34-17 in the wild-card round and the Broncos 24-22 in the divisional round to go to the AFC Championship Game.

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Cardinals win a playoff game

With all the surprise NFC playoff misses, spots were available. And the Cardinals were one of the upstarts that took advantage. Arizona had a good, but not great, 9-8 season in which quarterback Kyler Murray played quite well, wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. took a small step forward and the defense was mediocre. That was enough for a wild-card berth, and the Cardinals made some postseason noise.

Arizona routed the NFC South champion Falcons 35-14. Playoff Josh Sweat sacked Michael Penix Jr. multiple times, while Murray threw two touchdown passes to Zay Jones. But the Cardinals didn’t carry that momentum into their divisional round matchup with the Vikings, losing 28-22 when their attempted game-winning drive stalled out in the final minute.

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Saints get first overall pick, prompting Arch watch

Sometimes preseason expectations hold. FPI predicted the Saints to be the worst team in football, and they were just that. The easy schedule worked in their favor, too. New Orleans was tied with the Jets and Browns for the worst record at 5-12, but it earned the No. 1 pick on the schedule-strength tiebreaker.

Before the season, Archie Manning predicted that his grandson Arch Manning would remain with Texas for the 2026 season. But when the Saints — Archie’s former team — earned the first overall pick, speculation about the youngest Manning speeding up his NFL timetable began to grow.

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No. 7 seed Buccaneers go on unlikely Super Bowl run

For much of the season, the Buccaneers looked like a mild disappointment, as quarterback Baker Mayfield couldn’t quite match his 2024 success with new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard. Entering Week 18, Tampa Bay sat at 8-8 on the outside looking in at the playoffs — a game out of the NFC South and wild-card berths. The Bucs needed that final week to break their way, and it did.

The division was out of reach once the Falcons beat the Saints, but the Buccaneers kept their playoff hopes alive with a 20-15 victory over the Panthers. They got the help they needed, with the 49ers losing to the Seahawks 24-17 and the Bears falling to the Lions 38-9. That allowed Tampa Bay to grab the last wild-card spot with a 9-8 record.

The Bucs entered the playoffs with low expectations but shocked No. 2-seeded Detroit 27-24 in the wild-card round, keyed by a Yaya Diaby sack and a deflection of a Jared Goff pass that was intercepted. Tampa Bay then surprised the top-seeded Rams 27-22 in the divisional round thanks to a clinical Mayfield performance. Todd Bowles’ defense got the job done in the NFC Championship Game, confusing J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings and winning 28-13. Emeka Egbuka and Bucky Irving had big days, and the Bucs were Super Bowl bound — where they met the Bills.

In a wild NFC playoffs, five of six road teams won their matchups. Here’s how the overall postseason played out leading into the Super Bowl:

Wild-card round

(AFC) No. 2 Ravens def. No. 7 Dolphins 34-17

(AFC) No. 6 Titans def. No. 3 Colts 34-13

(AFC) No. 4 Broncos def. No. 5 Bengals 35-32

(NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 2 Lions 27-24

(NFC) No. 6 Cardinals def. No. 3 Falcons 35-14

(NFC) No. 5 Vikings def. No. 4 Cowboys 10-9

Divisional round

(AFC) No. 1 Bills def. No. 6 Titans 28-14

(AFC) No. 2 Ravens def. No. 4 Broncos 24-22

(NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 1 Rams 27-22

(NFC) No. 5 Vikings def. No. 6 Cardinals 28-22

Conference championships

(AFC) No. 1 Bills def. No. 2 Ravens 24-20

(NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 5 Vikings 28-13

---

Bills win Super Bowl LX

Bills Mafia, rejoice. Buffalo really did it. After coming up short four times in a row in the early 1990s and then knocking on the door in recent years with Josh Allen, the Bills finally burst through with a statement win.

Buffalo was the best team in the regular season, winning 13 games to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Allen won his second straight MVP award — no controversy this time — and the Lombardi Trophy was considered Buffalo’s to lose.

The Bills’ No. 1 seed earned them a divisional round matchup against a plucky Titans team that wasn’t ready for the moment. The Bills won 28-14. The real test came in the AFC Championship Game — the last game ever in Highmark Stadium.

With snow flurries falling in true Buffalo fashion, the Bills hosted their fiercest challenger, the Ravens. Allen put on a top-tier performance, recording a 91 QBR and throwing a go-ahead fourth-quarter touchdown pass to tight end Dalton Kincaid. Allen and the Bills outdueled Jackson and the Ravens 24-20 to advance to Super Bowl LX.

The betting market pegged the Bills as 7.5-point favorites over the Buccaneers, which was more than enough. The Bills opened with a two-score lead in the first eight minutes on a 56-yard touchdown run by James Cook. It didn’t get closer, so Allen hardly needed to make big plays. Cook took home Super Bowl LX MVP with his three touchdowns, and the Bills were finally victorious, trouncing Tampa Bay 55-23.

ESPN senior sports analytics engineer Hank Gargiulo contributed to this article.

Celtic finally have their new striker with the arrival of former Sevilla forward Kelechi Iheanacho, more than 24 hours after the Scottish transfer deadline.

Iheanacho had been in talks to join Brendan Rodgers’ side on Monday evening following his release by Sevilla earlier that day, but they were not completed in time to beat the clock and the 28-year-old had to wait until 11.06pm on Tuesday night for his transfer to be announced.

Celtic had already looked to add Anderlecht striker Kasper Dolberg to their ranks, only to be gazumped by Ajax at the last moment, before Chelsea striker David Datro Fofana rejected a loan move.

It left the Scottish Premiership champions short of numbers in attack after letting Adam Idah join Swansea for £7m before a replacement had been found.

The Hoops did manage one Deadline Day arrival, completing the £5.2m signing of Hammarby IF winger Sebastian Tounekti, before getting Iheanacho’s move over the line a day later.

The move reunites the Nigeria forward with Brendan Rodgers, who as Leicester manager oversaw the best scoring season of his career when he netted 12 Premier League goals in 2020/21.

Rodgers said: “I know Kelechi so well and what he can bring to the team. He is such a talented player, with great ability, athleticism and work-rate.

“I am sure he will love being at Celtic and I believe our fans will love what he brings. He has great experience and he is right in his peak years so he can be a great signing for us. I am sure he will make a big contribution to the team.”

LAKE FOREST, Ill. — Braxton Jones will start at left tackle for the Chicago Bears during their season opener against the Minnesota Vikings.

Jones, Chicago’s incumbent left tackle with 40 starts over the last three seasons, was in competition throughout training camp with three other hopefuls: rookie second-rounder Ozzy Trapilo, practice squad member Theo Benedet and 2024 third-round pick Kiran Amegadjie.

Jones won the job upon playing every rep with quarterback Caleb Williams and the offensive starters in preseason games against Buffalo and Kansas City. He also spent the last two weeks of camp with the first team in practice.

“He knows what he’s doing,” coach Ben Johnson said. “Is it perfect every play? No, it’s not. But we did see the execution go up over the course of the last few weeks, so there is a trust level in him knowing what to do. We think that’s he’s going to continue to ascend [with] the more reps that he gets.”

Benedet is expected to serve as the backup left tackle, while Trapilo has spent several weeks back at right tackle with the second-team offensive line. Amegadjie, who started two games at left tackle as a rookie, is now practicing at guard.

Johnson waited until Tuesday to announce the starter after the position battle played out over six weeks of camp. He said last week, however, that they’re “not afraid to make a change if the performance isn’t where it needs to be.”

Before he was revealed as the starter, Jones said Tuesday that he believed he had done enough to prove he was worthy of retaining his role entering his fourth season in Chicago.

“I do feel that way,” Jones said. “Obviously if there’s still something to be shown, there’s still something to be shown. But regardless of the case, I’ve shown up each week and, coming back from this injury, done everything I can, and I’m still getting there, too. Obviously as the season goes, you get better each and every week, so I’m excited for that as well.”

On defense, Pro Bowl cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who missed all of camp with what he called a “pretty bad” groin injury that he suffered while training away from the team’s facility, is nearing a return.

Speaking for the first time since he landed on the non-football injury list in July, Johnson said he’s expected to be cleared to return to practice Tuesday but was noncommittal about his availability for Week 1.

“I like to say I can go out there and play, but, I mean, it’s definitely hard to,” Johnson said. “I feel like if we had a game today, it wouldn’t be a thing. But I think really this week will be important for me to get the pads back on, get practices under my belt, game speed, moving around, covering guys, communicating. I think that all will help me. … [It] just depends on where my body is at.”

College football came back in a big way in Week 1.

The two high-profile matchups lived up to their billing. The No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes defense completely shut down the No. 1 Texas Longhorns and ruined the start of the Arch Manning era. Texas turned the ball over on downs four times and Manning had an interception. The Longhorns are the sixth AP preseason No. 1 to lose the season opener and the first since 1990.

The biggest upset of the day came when the unranked Florida State Seminoles knocked off the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide. The Noles, coming off a 2-10 season, dominated the Tide, rushing for 230 yards while holding Bama to 87 yards on the ground, their fewest since 1975.

Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.

All times Eastern

Previous ranking: 3

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Texas 14-7

Stat to know: Ohio State’s Julian Sayin is the first QB to win his first college start against an AP No. 1 team since Jim Harbaugh did so for Michigan against Miami in 1984.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Grambling, 3:30 p.m., BTN

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Previous ranking: 2

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Nevada 46-11

Stat to know: Nicholas Singleton has rushed for a touchdown in eight straight games, which is tied for the second-longest streak over the past 20 years.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Florida International, noon, BTN

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Previous ranking: 9

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Clemson 17-10

Stat to know: LSU won a season opener against a team ranked in the AP top five for just the second time in history. The first one came over No. 3 Oregon in 2011.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Louisiana Tech, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+

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Previous ranking: 5

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Marshall 45-7

Stat to know: Gunner Stockton was 14-of-24 for 190 yards and two scores. He ran for 73 yards for two more touchdowns. He’s the first Georgia player to have two passing and two rushing scores in a season opener in the past 80 years.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Austin Peay, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+

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Previous ranking: 10

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Notre Dame 27-24

Stat to know: Sunday’s win was Miami’s seventh-straight home win against Notre Dame, tied for the longest streak in the poll era.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Bethune-Cookman, 7 p.m., ESPN+

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Previous ranking: 7

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Montana State 59-13

Stat to know: Oregon had 12 different players with a rush and 10 players with a reception.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Oklahoma State, 3:30 p.m., CBS

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Previous ranking: 1

2025 record: 0-1

Week 1 result: Lost to Ohio State 14-7

Stat to know: Texas is the sixth preseason AP No. 1 team to lose its season opener, and the first since 1990. Though the other five teams all rebounded to have good seasons (each won at least nine games), none ended up winning the national title.

What’s next: Saturday vs. San Jose State, noon, ABC

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Previous ranking: 4

2025 record: 0-1

Week 1 result: Lost to LSU 17-10

Stat to know: Clemson has scored 10 or fewer points in four of its past five season openers.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Troy, 3:30 p.m., ACC Network

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Previous ranking: 6

2025 record: 0-1

Week 1 result: Lost to Miami 27-24

Stat to know: Notre Dame has lost seven consecutive games on the road against Miami.

What’s next: Sept. 13 vs. Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m., NBC

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Previous ranking: 13

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Virginia Tech 24-11

Stat to know: Shane Beamer is 4-1 in season openers with South Carolina.

What’s next: Saturday vs. South Carolina State, 7 p.m., ESPN+

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Previous ranking: 12

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Western Illinois 52-3

Stat to know: Illinois’ 49-point win is its second-largest winning margin in a season opener in the AP poll era behind a 73-point win in 1944.

What’s next: Saturday at Duke, noon, ESPN

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Previous ranking: 11

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Northern Arizona 38-19

Stat to know: In the season opener, Sam Leavitt became the second Arizona State player with two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns in a game in the past 30 seasons.

What’s next: Saturday at Mississippi State, 7:30 p.m., ESPN2

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Previous ranking: 15

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Long Island University 55-0

Stat to know: Florida held LIU to 86 total yards. It’s the fewest the Gators have allowed since giving up just 53 to North Texas in 2016.

What’s next: Saturday vs. South Florida, 4:15 p.m., SEC Network

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Previous ranking: NR

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Alabama 31-17

Stat to know: Florida State became the first team since the AP preseason poll began to win a season opener vs. an AP top-10 opponent following a 10-loss season.

What’s next: Saturday vs. East Texas A&M, noon, ACCN

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Previous ranking: 14

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated New Mexico 34-17

Stat to know: Freshman QB Bryce Underwood is the third Michigan player with 250 or more passing yards in a team debut since 2000, joining Jake Rudock (2015) and John Navarre (2000).

What’s next: Saturday at Oklahoma, 7:30 p.m., ABC

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Previous ranking: 22

2025 record: 2-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Kansas State 24-21 (Week 0); beat South Dakota 55-7 (Week 1)

Stat to know: Iowa State has now won Farmageddon three straight times. It’s the Cyclones’ longest streak in the series since winning five in a row from 1985 to 1989.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Iowa, noon, Fox

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Previous ranking: 16

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated East Texas A&M 42-13

Stat to know: SMU became the first FBS team with multiple pick-sixes in a season opener since USC had three vs. Rice in 2022.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Baylor, noon, CW Network

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Previous ranking: 18

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Illinois State 35-3

Stat to know: John Mateer‘s 392 passing yards were the most by a player making his debut in OU history.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Michigan, 7:30 p.m., ABC

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Previous ranking: 19

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated UTSA 42-24

Stat to know: KC Concepcion is the first Aggies player with a punt return and receiving score since 2017.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Utah State, 12:45 p.m., SEC Network

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Previous ranking: 21

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Georgia State 63-7

Stat to know: Ole Miss is first team in SEC history to score 60 or more points in three consecutive season openers.

What’s next: Saturday at Kentucky, 3:30 p.m., ABC

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Previous ranking: 8

2025 record: 0-1

Week 1 result: Lost to Florida State 31-17

Stat to know: This was Alabama’s first season-opening loss since 2001. The Tide’s 23-game winning streak in openers was the second longest in the FBS behind Ohio State’s 26. The loss also snapped Alabama’s 54-game winning streak against unranked nonconference opponents. The last such loss was against UL Monroe in 2007.

What’s next: Saturday vs. UL Monroe, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network

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Previous ranking: 24

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Syracuse 45-26

Stat to know: New Vols QB Joey Aguilar had 247 passing yards and three scores. Tennessee has now had a starting QB throw three touchdowns in the season opener in consecutive seasons.

What’s next: Saturday vs. East Tennessee State, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+

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Previous ranking: 20

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Old Dominion 27-14

Stat to know: Indiana is now 12-0 against unranked opponents since Curt Cignetti took over the program.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Kennesaw State, noon, FS1

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Previous ranking: 23

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67-7

Stat to know: Texas Tech’s 60-point win was its largest margin in a season opener since 1927.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Kent State, noon, TNT

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Previous ranking: NR

2025 record: 1-0

Week 1 result: Defeated UCLA 43-10

Stat to know: Utah has won three consecutive season openers.

What’s next: Saturday vs. Cal Poly, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN+

Warrington Wolves chairman Stuart Middleton has confirmed Sam Burgess will remain as head coach next season but admitted “things must change” after a dismal finish to the campaign.

Warrington’s hopes of reaching the Betfred Super League play-offs were left in doubt after a shock 25-12 defeat at home to financially-stricken Salford Red Devils on Friday, their fifth loss in six matches.

The latest setback leaves Warrington in eighth place and six points behind sixth-placed Wakefield Trinity with just three matches remaining in the regular season, leading to speculation over whether Burgess would remain as head coach.

Burgess – who has one year left on his contract – said he was “committed” to the club after Friday’s loss, with Middleton issuing a statement to supporters to confirm the 36-year-old will stay at the Halliwell Jones Stadium beyond this campaign.

“Sam Burgess has the full backing of the playing group,” Middleton said. “He will lead Warrington Wolves into 2026 as head coach. He is ambitious, driven and determined to put things right.

“We remain committed to our vision of building a team founded on homegrown talent and, with our Academy finishing the regular season unbeaten, the future looks bright.

“Recruitment is key and must be better, but let me be clear, there will be no passengers. Two new players have already been announced, with further updates to follow as change is implemented.

“We cannot overlook the impact injuries to key players have had on our season and the disruption this causes to our combinations. However, while it is a factor, it is no excuse. You, the fans, deserve better.

“This club does not exist without you. Now it is down to us to earn your support back, not with words, but with performances that reflect what this town and community stand for.”

Warrington host Leigh Leopards on Saturday (3pm) before travelling to Hull FC the following week (5.30pm), then rounding off the regular season with an away trip to Hull KR on September 19 (8pm).

Middleton added: “This season has not met the standards we expect. Over the past few days I’ve sat down with players, coaches and staff across the club. The message was clear and united: this is not good enough, and things must change.

“Our supporters work hard all week and spend their hard-earned money to follow this club. We understand the sacrifices you make, and it is our responsibility to repay that faith with committed, honest performances.”

Burgess ‘confused’ but insists ‘plenty still to play for’

Warrington have won just 10 of their 24 matches during the Super League campaign, leaving them in danger of missing the play-offs for just the second time in eight seasons.

Burgess said: “I am on contract for next year. I believe in this club and the structure of the place, but no doubt I have got some hard work to do over the off-season.

“I am sure there will be some questions to answer and I will handle that as they come. It is a tough night [Salford loss], really tough and not the first time it has happened.

“The players look in a tough place. It is just not working for us at the moment. We have lost a bit of our spirit and I’m as confused as everyone else.”

He added: “There’s plenty still to play for; we’ve just lost a bit of our spirit. I’m as confused as everyone else. I don’t have any answers right now, if I’m totally honest. I’ve tried everything that’s worked with me and in teams that I’ve been a part of, but at the moment it’s just not working.”

Watch every Super League game live on Sky Sports. Two matches in each round are exclusively live, with the remaining four fixtures shown on Sky Sports+ via the red button.

The 2025 NFL season kicks off Thursday night, when the reigning Super Bowl champion Eagles host the Cowboys (8:20 ET, NBC).

Week 1 continues Friday night in Brazil, when the Chiefs face the Chargers in São Paulo (8 ET, YouTube), before Sunday’s slate of 13 games, including the Bills hosting the Ravens on “Sunday Night Football” (8:20 ET, NBC). Opening week wraps up with “Monday Night Football,” as the Vikings visit the Bears (8:20 ET, ESPN and ABC).

To welcome back football, NFL Nation reporters identified strengths and concerns for all 32 teams. Analyst Matt Bowen has a tip for winning your fantasy league; analytics writer Seth Walder makes 32 bold predictions; and ESPN Research provides a QB stat to know for every team heading into the season. In addition, you’ll find the chances for every team to win its division and make the playoffs, projected win totals and strength of schedule. Plus, depth charts, schedules and rosters for every team.

This is everything you need to know for the start of the season, which will conclude Feb. 8 at Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) ranked every team from 1 to 32 based on how it projects the season to play out. The Baltimore Ravens start us off at No. 1:

Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SEA
SF | TB | TEN | WSH

Chances to make the playoffs: 78.6%
Chances to win division: 52.6%
Projected wins: 10.4
Strength of schedule: Ninth hardest
2024 record: 12-5

Biggest strength: Lamar Jackson. The two-time NFL Most Valuable Player is the most explosive playmaker in the league. Last season, he was as dangerous with his arm as his legs, leading the NFL in yards per pass attempt (8.8) and yards per carry (6.6). With Jackson as its starting quarterback, Baltimore has a 70-24 record (.745) and has its sights set on a Super Bowl title. When Jackson has been sidelined over the past six seasons, the Ravens have gone 4-9 (.308). — Jamison Hensley

Biggest concern: Tyler Loop. This has the makings of the most complete team in Jackson’s eight-year run. The biggest change is going from Justin Tucker, the most accurate kicker in NFL history, to Loop, a rookie sixth-round pick. According to Pro Football Reference’s database, of the 128 place-kickers in NFL history who have attempted 20 or more kicks as a rookie, 19 have hit or exceeded an 85% conversion rate. — Hensley

QB stat to know: Jackson enters 2025 looking to build on a career season, setting career-best marks in passing TDs (41) and passing yards (4,172). He can become the first quarterback since Peyton Manning (2003-05) to be named first-team All-Pro in three straight seasons. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: WR Zay Flowers. A high-floor target due to his deployment in the Ravens’ offense, Flowers can win as a route runner or produce as a horizonal stretch option on schemed touches. Flowers averaged 12.2 points per game in 2024, and he had 11 games with double-digit production. With Flowers expected to see another 100 targets this season, he provides solid value at his current ADP. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Running back Keaton Mitchell will have at least four games with 20-plus fantasy points. This is more or less me running back (pun intended) my bold prediction from a year ago, when I was also bullish on Mitchell. Perhaps I was a year too early then. Even with the extra time passed, I have a hard time forgetting Mitchell’s 201 rush yards over expectation on 47 carries in 2023, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 76.1%
Chances to win division: 56.0%
Projected wins: 10.3
Strength of schedule: Fourth hardest
2024 record: 14-3

Biggest strength: Exceptional run game. Offensive Player of the Year Saquon Barkley became the all-time leading rusher for a single season (including playoffs) in 2024 while powering the Eagles to their second Super Bowl title. He operates behind one of the best offensive lines in football, which is returning four of five starters (right guard Mekhi Becton signed with the Chargers this offseason and has been replaced by Tyler Steen). Couple that ground attack with receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts, and you have an offense with a very high ceiling. — Tim McManus

Biggest concern: Replacements in the secondary. The Eagles parted with safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and cornerback Darius Slay this offseason and were unable to clearly identify their replacements this summer. Veteran Adoree’ Jackson seems to have gained an edge on Kelee Ringo but certainly didn’t run away with the job. Perhaps Jakorian Bennett, recently acquired from the Raiders, or rookie Mac McWilliams will claim the spot opposite Quinyon Mitchell at some point. Rookie safety Andrew Mukuba flashed brightly in his preseason debut against the Browns but has also been hampered by injuries, opening the door for third-year player Sydney Brown to try to secure the job, at least temporarily. — McManus

QB stat to know: To fill the role of offensive coordinator after Kellen Moore became the Saints head coach, the Eagles promoted Kevin Patullo, who served as the team’s pass game coordinator each of the past four seasons. Over that span, Hurts ranked fourth in QBR when using motion, behind only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Brock Purdy. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: Smith. The wide receiver has finished each of the past three seasons as a top-20 WR in PPR scoring. Yes, the offense in Philly is run-heavy with Barkley, and Smith will remain the No. 2 receiver opposite Brown. However, Smith averaged 7.1 targets per game in 2024 while averaging 14.4 PPG, including four games with 22 or more points. He is a fantasy WR3 in an offense that will move the ball and produce touchdowns. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Defensive tackle Moro Ojomo — who has zero career sacks — will record at least 5.0 sacks and finish in the top 10 in pass rush win rate. We saw the success Milton Williams had playing next to Jalen Carter, and there are already positive signs for Ojomo: He posted a 13% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle last season, which would have ranked seventh at the position had he played enough to qualify. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 74.8%
Chances to win division: 46.8%
Projected wins: 10.3
Strength of schedule: 11th hardest (tie)
2024 record: 15-2

Biggest strength: The Chiefs have Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, which is still the best coach-quarterback combination in the league. Mahomes was excellent in camp and has worked to improve his deep-ball passing. Reid and Mahomes are capable of adjusting during a game or the middle of the season to always give the Chiefs a chance to win. — Nate Taylor

Biggest concern: The Chiefs plan to protect the blind side of Mahomes with a rookie and a second-year player switching to a new position. Josh Simmons, the first-round pick, hasn’t played a game since October, when he sustained a season-ending torn patella in his last year at Ohio State. Kingsley Suamataia is the new left guard and has played one NFL game at the position. How Simmons and Suamataia perform this season will determine much of the Chiefs’ success on offense. — Taylor

QB stat to know: If Mahomes reaches the AFC Championship Game for an eighth consecutive season, he would match Tom Brady (2011-18) for the longest streak of conference championship starts since the 1970 merger. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: RB Isiah Pacheco. A Week 2 fibula fracture derailed Pacheco’s 2024 season, and the injury impacted his numbers when he returned in Weeks 13-18 (5.0 PPG). But if we go back to 2023, Pacheco averaged 15.3 fantasy PPG, scoring nine touchdowns and catching 44 passes. So, bet on a healthy Pacheco — and his urgent running style — to fill that RB2/flex slot in the lineup. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: The Chiefs will have at least 12 plays that go for 40-plus yards in the regular season. Doesn’t sound so bold, does it? But last season, Kansas City recorded four such plays. I’m betting the Chiefs will make a concerted effort to bring the explosive plays back in 2025, particularly via vertical shots to WR Xavier Worthy. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 65.6%
Chances to win division: 38.4%
Projected wins: 9.7
Strength of schedule: Second hardest (tie)
2024 record: 15-2

Biggest strength: Ground attack. Running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery — aka “Sonic & Knuckles” — could be featured backs for nearly any team in the NFL but have no problems splitting carries in Detroit. New running backs coach Tashard Choice, who coached Gibbs at Georgia Tech, is looking to bring the best out of them. Gibbs and Montgomery have each recorded at least 1,000 scrimmage yards and 10 scrimmage touchdowns in each of the past two seasons, becoming the first running back tandem in NFL history to have two such seasons (at all, not just consecutively), according to ESPN Research. — Eric Woodyard

Biggest concern: Offensive line. After a 15-win season in 2024, Detroit continues to navigate through two key losses on the O-line. The Lions lost four-time Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow to retirement and veteran guard Kevin Zeitler, who signed with the Tennessee Titans this offseason. One of the biggest concerns is whether the offensive production will continue to be among the league’s elite as veteran Graham Glasgow is switching from guard to center and rookie guard Tate Ratledge probably will assume a starting role. — Woodyard

QB stat to know: Though Jared Goff ranks second in the NFL in QBR when he has a clean pocket, he ranks 23rd when he’s under pressure. Goff had the second-largest QBR decline in the league in 2024 when he was pressured compared with when he had a clean pocket, ahead of only Daniel Jones. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: WR Jameson Williams. A dynamic threat with home run skills, Williams had a vertical route rate of 41.1%, while running crossers (or overs) at a rate of 13.3%. And that’s how he can create big plays for this Lions offense. Williams had 16 receptions of 20 or more yards last season, and he averaged 14.4 PPG, buoyed by four games of 22 or more points. With a bump in volume, Williams could jump into the WR2 ranks this season. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Aidan Hutchinson will record at least 100 pass rush wins, something that has happened only twice since the metric was created in 2017 (Micah Parsons in 2023 and Aaron Donald in 2018). I’m getting sucked into a small sample size and ignoring that he’s coming off a season-ending broken leg, but Hutchinson’s 35% pass rush win rate in the five games he played last season put him on pace for the second-highest PRWR in the metric’s history (he also had 7.5 sacks). I think he could be excellent again in 2025. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 81.1%
Chances to win division: 66.5%
Projected wins: 10.6
Strength of schedule: Ninth easiest (tie)
2024 record: 13-4

Biggest strength: Josh Allen. The reigning MVP reinforced last year just how much he is capable of, even without a clear No. 1 receiver, as he broke a variety of franchise and league records. Allen has not missed a game since his rookie season and has accounted for at least 40 touchdowns (passing or rushing) in five straight seasons, the longest streak in NFL history. No other player has done so in four straight seasons. — Alaina Getzenberg

Biggest concern: Will the changes to the defense be enough? The Bills heavily invested in the defensive line, through the draft and free agency, and the health of DE Joey Bosa and some of the young players’ ability to develop will be key. There are also some real unknowns when it comes to the secondary, including the health of CBs Tre’Davious White and Maxwell Hairston. — Getzenberg

QB stat to know: Allen became the franchise’s first NFL MVP since RB Thurman Thomas in 1991 and was rewarded with a six-year extension in March. The deal includes $250 million guaranteed, the largest guaranteed total in a single contract. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: WR Khalil Shakir. He caught 73 passes in 2024 and averaged 12.7 PPG. While he is not a high-volume target in the low red zone (three end zone targets in 2024), the Bills’ route tree maximizes his skill set after the catch. Savvy and tough in space, Shakir averaged 7.9 YAC last season, and he posted 11 games with double-digit production. You can win with that at the WR3 spot in your lineup. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: TE Dalton Kincaid will record at least 900 receiving yards. This is more of a feeling than anything else, but sometimes it takes tight ends a few seasons to really settle in and make an impact. Kincaid was a highly touted prospect who flashed his potential in a 73-reception, 673-yard rookie season in 2023. Plus, there are still questions about other playmakers in Buffalo, so he ought to get his fair share of targets. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 56.4%
Chances to win division: 29.0%
Projected wins: 9.2
Strength of schedule: Fifth hardest (tie)
2024 record: 11-6

Biggest strength: Experience on offense — finally. That might sound counterintuitive given that this has been the youngest team in the NFL the past two seasons — and likely will have one of the youngest rosters again this year — but the core of this group, including Jordan Love and most of his pass catchers — have grown together. GM Brian Gutekunst’s idea was for the quarterback and his young skill-position players to have time to build chemistry together. Along the way, they picked up some valuable postseason scars that could benefit them in the playoffs the next time around. — Rob Demovsky

Biggest concern: A few days ago, this would’ve been pass rusher, but then Micah Parsons entered the picture. There are still potential issues on defense, especially on the back end. They signed cornerback Nate Hobbs in free agency, and it will be him and Keisean Nixon as the base corners. Neither has ever been a true CB1, and the Packers moved on from theirs when they cut Jaire Alexander in June. Hobbs is recovering from early-August knee surgery. Next up on the depth chart are a former seventh-round pick (Carrington Valentine), a player who spent his first two seasons with the Packers as a receiver and moved to cornerback in June (Bo Melton) and a former practice squad member whose only NFL game experience is seven special teams plays last season (Kamal Hadden). — Demovsky

QB stat to know: Since taking over as the starter in 2023, Love ranks in the top seven among 33 qualified quarterbacks in passing touchdowns, yards per dropback and QBR. However, Love ranks 26th among that group in both completion percentage and interceptions. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: WR Matthew Golden. With his 4.29 speed and ball-tracking ability, the rookie first-rounder brings a playmaking skill set to coach Matt LaFleur’s offense. Last season at Texas, Golden led the country with 23 receptions of 20 or more yards, plus he can work the underneath levels of the route tree from multiple alignments. With Christian Watson still recovering from a knee injury, Golden can emerge quickly as a target for Love. Golden projects as an upside WR3. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper will be a first- or second-team All-Pro. Cooper’s numbers were fantastic in a semi-small sample as a rookie last season. His 46% run stop win rate would have led all linebackers, his 0.6 yards per coverage snap allowed was better than average, and he recorded 3.5 sacks. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 56.8%
Chances to win division: 26.5%
Projected wins: 9.2
Strength of schedule: 14th hardest
2024 record: 9-8

Biggest strength: The receiving corps. When a team shells out $276 million on two wide receivers, it had better be a strength. But it’s not just Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins spearheading that group. Andrei Iosivas is a strong No. 3. And the others among that group — Charlie Jones, Jermaine Burton, Mitchell Tinsley — have flashed consistently during training camp and the preseason. — Ben Baby

Biggest concern: Right guard. It’s never a great sign when a starting job isn’t secured by the end of training camp, and Cincinnati still doesn’t have a confirmed starter at right guard. Whether it’s Lucas Patrick or Cody Ford, the starter will need to do his part to keep Joe Burrow upright. Cincinnati ranked last in pass block win rate last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Baby

QB stat to know: Despite Burrow ranking third in the league in QBR (74.7) and having an MVP-caliber season, the Bengals missed the postseason. That is the highest QBR by a quarterback (minimum 10 starts) who didn’t make the playoffs since the metric was introduced in 2006. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: Higgins. In 12 games played last season, Higgins had 10 touchdown receptions and averaged 18.2 PPG. Working opposite Chase in one of the league’s most pass-heavy systems and with Burrow at quarterback, Higgins brings alignments versatility and three-level production in the route tree. He is a high-end WR2 who can post WR1 weeks. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: The Bengals will miss the playoffs — again. I worry about how much Cincinnati relies on four players — Burrow, Chase, Higgins and edge rusher Trey Hendrickson — and fell short with all of them last season. Maybe the Bengals will get some positive defensive regression, but are we sure they’ll match their offensive output from 2024, when Burrow played the best ball of his career? The offensive line is still shaky, too. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 54.3%
Chances to win division: 28.7%
Projected wins: 9.1
Strength of schedule: Eighth hardest
2024 record: 12-5

Biggest strength: Jayden Daniels. One opposing coach said in the offseason that Daniels “makes a lot of wrongs right” because of his explosive ability with his arm (3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns) and legs (891 yards, six touchdowns). He infuses confidence, making teammates believe they can win any game. Multiple receivers had their best seasons playing with him last season, including Terry McLaurin, who had a career-high 13 touchdown receptions. Tight end Zach Ertz called Daniels the leader of the team and said, “It’s crazy to think he’s only in his second year.” — John Keim

Biggest concern: Offensive chemistry — especially early in the season. The defense, which faces its own questions about how improved it is, looked strong this summer, and though Daniels is the strength, the first-team offense hasn’t worked much together. Two of the top three receivers — McLaurin (recently ended his hold-in) and Noah Brown (knee) — missed all or most of camp. Starting left guard Brandon Coleman missed three weeks, while starting right guard Sam Cosmi is recovering from a torn ACL and his return date remains uncertain. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury called the group “a work in progress.” — Keim

QB stat to know: Daniels excelled under pressure last season — specifically when blitzed — finishing with a 92 QBR versus the blitz in 2024 (including playoffs). That ranked first out of 93 QBs who have had 200-plus dropbacks against a blitz since 2006. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt. With the team trading away Brian Robinson Jr., there is an opportunity here for Croskey-Merritt to establish a role in a backfield share with Austin Ekeler. Croskey-Merritt has flashed during the preseason with his short-area acceleration and decisive running style. With the potential for flex upside in the lineup, I’d take a chance on the rookie in the later rounds. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: The Commanders will finish below .500. Sure, they could continue their ascent. But there are a lot of ways this season could go sideways for the Commanders. The aging defense with a lack of pass rush could fail them, injury or decline could strike McLaurin (their receiving group is weak behind him), or Daniels’ early-down numbers from a season ago (merely average!) could be a better indication of who he is going forward. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 55.9%
Chances to win division: 24.3%
Projected wins: 9.2
Strength of schedule: 11th hardest (tie)
2024 record: 11-6

Biggest strength: Safety. The Chargers have three starting-caliber safeties in Derwin James Jr., Alohi Gilman and Elijah Molden. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter likes to keep the three on the field as much as possible. Last season, James played his most snaps at the nickel cornerback position, sparking his return to All-Pro status after a down year in 2023. — Kris Rhim

Biggest concern: Offensive line. The Chargers’ interior line was somewhat of this team’s Achilles heel last season, largely responsible for L.A. not having a dominant rushing offense. Now the Chargers will be without Pro Bowl left tackle Rashawn Slater and are starting the same center (Bradley Bozeman) and left guard (Zion Johnson) pairing from last season. The one positive for L.A. was signing right guard Mekhi Becton, who should be a significant upgrade on the interior at that spot. — Rhim

QB stat to know: Justin Herbert‘s 21,093 passing yards are the most through five seasons in NFL history — but of the 14 active quarterbacks with 20,000-plus passing yards, he is one of three who does not have a playoff win as a starter (Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston). — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: RB Omarion Hampton. He delivers body punches at 6-foot, 221 pounds, and he can get rolling on a downhill track. The lower-body power is there to run through contact and push the pile, and he can cut to daylight when the walls start to close. A capable receiver who produced big plays on screens and swings at North Carolina, Hampton can post RB2 numbers this season as the lead runner in the Chargers offense. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Joe Alt will win Protector of the Year. He is moving into a more high-profile role at left tackle in the wake of Slater’s injury, and he’s coming off a rookie season in which he put up pretty incredible numbers. Alt ranked fourth in pass block win rate (94%) and 15th in run block win rate (78%) among tackles. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 65.2%
Chances to win division: 39.2%
Projected wins: 9.8
Strength of schedule: Easiest
2024 record: 6-11

Biggest strength: Offensive continuity. Though the Niners have had plenty of changes on the roster, their projected top 11 started at least two games each in 2024 and averaged a total of 11.5 starts last season when San Francisco was fourth in the league in yards per game. Injuries, especially at receiver, bring questions, but the 49ers have a group with experience in coach Kyle Shanahan’s system to again be an offense that, if it can take a step forward in the red zone (57.1%, 14th in 2024), should improve upon its 22.1 points per game from 2024, which also ranked 14th. — Nick Wagoner

Biggest concern: A lack of experience and depth on defense. Coordinator Robert Saleh has building blocks in DE Nick Bosa, LB Fred Warner and CB Deommodore Lenoir, but the rest of the defense is essentially one big question mark. The Niners could end up starting as many as six rookies relatively early in the season on a defense that finished 2024 ranked 29th in points allowed per game (25.6). And if injuries strike again? Well, the Niners have little proven depth behind an already thin group, especially in the secondary. — Wagoner

QB stat to know: Since Brock Purdy took over as the full-time starter in Week 14 of the 2022 season, he ranks in the top five in passing yards and QBR, and he leads all quarterbacks in yards per attempt. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: WR Ricky Pearsall. He scored 17 points or more in three of his seven games played as a rookie. In Weeks 17 and 18, he had 14 receptions and averaged 23.8 fantasy points. A detailed route runner who can provide a vertical push in one-on-one matchups, Pearsall will also get opportunities on in-breaking concepts in Shanahan’s offense off play-action, which leads to big plays. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Edge rusher Bryce Huff will record at least nine sacks. Maybe this is just stubbornness, but there has to be a real chance that last year’s disappointment in Philadelphia was a one-year blip for Huff that can be overcome by returning to a Robert Saleh-schemed defense. As bad as last season was, it’s not enough to make me forget about the 10.0 sacks or the top-10 pass rush win rate at edge (22%) Huff recorded in 2023. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 53.5%
Chances to win division: 22.1%
Projected wins: 9.1
Strength of schedule: 15th hardest
2024 record: 10-7

Biggest strength: Yeah, it’s preseason and they haven’t played many opposing starters, but the Broncos’ defense has dominated at every turn. After two preseason games, the Broncos were No. 1 in scoring defense, total defense, pass defense and third-down defense while allowing the fewest first downs. It is a deep group up front with a secondary that has a legitimate claim as the league’s best. If the defense carries the preseason momentum to the regular season, the only thing that could stand in the Broncos’ way is injuries. — Jeff Legwold

Biggest concern: The Broncos were among the league leaders in total yards during the preseason, but that has been mostly a product of the second- and third-team offenses. The first-team offense has mostly looked meh in limited snaps. Quarterback Bo Nix is closer to finding a rhythm, and focused game-planning will help, but the Broncos’ offense has had issues manufacturing drives and finding explosive plays against its first-team defense. If that continues against opponents, it might be difficult for coach Sean Payton’s team to have the fast start he desires. — Legwold

QB stat to know: Nix threw for 3,775 yards last season, which was the most among rookies. Nix’s air yards per attempt was 12.9, and his QBR was 81 when targeting Courtland Sutton, but when targeting all others, his air yards per attempt dropped to 5.3 and QBR to 51. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: TE Evan Engram. The Broncos’ system is an upgrade for Engram and so is the quarterback play with Nix. Engram averaged 9.9 PPG with the Jaguars last season (in nine games played), a year removed from his 111 receptions in 2023. Catch-and-run targets will be in play here for Engram and so will the seam-stretching concepts that allow the tight end to attack schemed voids in coverage via Payton’s offense. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Cornerback Riley Moss will record at least five interceptions in a breakout third-year campaign. Playing opposite Pat Surtain II means plenty of balls will be thrown Moss’ direction — which should give him opportunities to make those picks. Plus, I think the Broncos are going to be good this season, so opponents will be trailing (and throwing) more often than not. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 58.0%
Chances to win division: 30.3%
Projected wins: 9.3
Strength of schedule: 16th easiest
2024 record: 10-7

Biggest strength: Their pass rush. The same group that sacked Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold nine times in their playoff game in January has mostly returned in 2025. Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse led all rookies in pressures during the season but said he came into training camp realizing how much better he could get after rewatching every play from last season. “People are like, ‘Oh, you’re good, you’re good,’” Verse said. “No, I’ve got so much farther to go.” — Sarah Barshop

Biggest concern: Matthew Stafford‘s back. The Rams quarterback, entering his 17th season, is dealing with an aggravated disk in his back and missed nearly the first month of training camp. Though Stafford could still play in the Rams’ season opener against the Texans, there’s a chance this back injury is something the quarterback and the Rams will have to manage all season. — Barshop

QB stat to know: Stafford was productive when he had to leave the pocket last season, throwing eight touchdowns on passes from outside the pocket, tied for second most in the NFL. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: Davante Adams. The wide receiver, who averaged 17.2 fantasy PPG across his time with the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets last season, is still one of the best at getting loose versus press-man defense. And Adams can use his coverage awareness to find open grass. That’s key when playing as the X receiver (opposite Puka Nacua), where Adams can win those backside one-on-ones for Stafford. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Nacua will lead the NFL in receiving yards. It’s hard to stress just how efficient Nacua was last season: His 3.7 yards per route run last year are the second most by any receiver in the past decade (behind Tyreek Hill in 2023) — even ahead of Cooper Kupp‘s monstrous 2021 season (3.2). The biggest question in this case might simply be whether Stafford can stay healthy long enough to get his receiver there. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 43.9%
Chances to win division: 19.0%
Projected wins: 8.6
Strength of schedule: Fifth hardest (tie)
2024 record: 14-3

Biggest strength: The Vikings used the value of quarterback J.J. McCarthy‘s rookie contract to assemble a talented — and expensive — roster around him. Ten of their projected 22 starters have been named to at least one Pro Bowl, three of whom they signed in March: center Ryan Kelly, along with defensive linemen Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. All told, the Vikings have committed roughly $350 million in cash to their 2025 roster. — Kevin Seifert

Biggest concern: McCarthy is more of an unknown than a concern, but his lack of experience — he became the first quarterback in the modern era to miss his entire rookie season because of injury after being drafted in the first round — is the biggest question on the team. He displayed moxie and precocious leadership skills during training camp but also revealed a level of inaccuracy that the Vikings hope will resolve itself as he settles into the role. — Seifert

QB stat to know: At 22 years old, McCarthy is expected to be the youngest quarterback to start in Week 1 this season. Assuming he starts, McCarthy will be the fourth quarterback over the past 20 seasons to make his first career start on “Monday Night Football” in Week 1 (Darnold with the Jets in 2018, Aaron Rodgers with the Packers in 2008, Philip Rivers with the Chargers in 2006). — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: McCarthy. The quarterback returns after missing his entire rookie season due to a torn meniscus. Playing in coach Kevin O’Connell’s QB-friendly offense, McCarthy has a premier No.1 target in Justin Jefferson, while tight end T.J. Hockenson can open up the middle of the field. Plus, McCarthy can create with his legs as a runner. He’s a late-round sleeper in deeper leagues. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Running back Jordan Mason will record at least 1,100 rushing yards. He’ll split work with Aaron Jones Sr., but I expect Mason to lead the team in rush attempts. He recorded 207 rush yards over expectation last season in San Francisco, and I could see the pass-happy Vikings running a little more to support their rookie quarterback. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 54.3%
Chances to win division: 42.5%
Projected wins: 8.8
Strength of schedule: 14th easiest (tie)
2024 record: 10-7

Biggest strength: The Texans’ strong suit is their edge rushers, led by Pro Bowlers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. Last season, the duo combined for 23 sacks, and there is no reason to believe they can’t reach 30. That might seem ambitious, but the secondary Houston has will force quarterbacks to hold the ball a tick longer, which should give them time to rack up more sacks. — DJ Bien-Aime

Biggest concern: Most of the starters on the offensive line have struggled throughout their career, or at least recently. Tackle Aireontae Ersery looked promising in camp, though he is a rookie, and T Tytus Howard is proven. But outside of them, the starters could be a few guys who have been castoffs. So how will that come together in a pivotal Year 3 for coach DeMeco Ryans? — Bien-Aime

QB stat to know: C.J. Stroud was sacked 52 times last season, second most in the league and fourth most in franchise history. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: WR Jayden Higgins. At 6-4 and 212 pounds, Higgins is a natural catcher with his hands and displays the body control to finish plays. Higgins, who had eight red zone touchdown grabs last season at Iowa State, should play a defined role in the Texans’ three-wide receiver sets and could emerge as the No. 2 opposite Nico Collins this season. You can grab Higgins in the later rounds, too. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Cornerback Kamari Lassiter will make the Pro Bowl. Derek Stingley Jr. rightfully earns most of the headlines, but Lassiter had a really nice rookie season during which he allowed 0.9 yards per coverage snap — better than average for an outside corner — per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 58.9%
Chances to win division: 48.7%
Projected wins: 9.0
Strength of schedule: 14th easiest (tie)
2024 record: 10-7

Biggest strength: The offense. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is coming off back-to-back career-best seasons. He threw 41 touchdowns in 2024, a season in which he didn’t have all of his playmakers. The Bucs’ receiving corps has taken two huge injury hits with Chris Godwin likely not playing until October and Jalen McMillan out until November, so the team will need to lean on Mayfield once again to run the show. — Jenna Laine

Biggest concern: Pressure off the edge. The Bucs defense couldn’t get off the field on third down in their wild-card playoff loss to the Commanders, and they got a lot deeper in their secondary to help address this. But on the edge, though they signed Haason Reddick in free agency, draft pick David Walker suffered a torn ACL, Yaya Diaby is still learning how to finish, and Chris Braswell has yet to really flash going into Year 2. — Laine

QB stat to know: Mayfield was at the forefront of Tampa Bay’s success last season, tying for second in passing touchdowns (41) and ranking third in passing yards (4,500) and completion percentage (71%). He was the only quarterback to rank in the top three in all three of those categories last season. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: WR Emeka Egbuka. With Godwin (ankle) out for the start of the season and McMillian on IR (neck) for at least the first four games, the door is open for the rookie Egbuka to emerge quickly as a target for Mayfield. A receiver with inside/outside flexibility, Egbuka is a smooth route runner who can get open and be available to the quarterback. Plus, he is competitive after the catch. Put him on your draft board. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Diaby will record double-digit sacks in a breakout season. Diaby put up a solid 15% pass rush win rate as a sophomore (close to average for an edge rusher) along with 4.5 sacks. In Todd Bowles’ blitz-heavy scheme, his numbers could jump. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 44.6%
Chances to win division: 18.5%
Projected wins: 8.6
Strength of schedule: 10th hardest
2024 record: 10-7

Biggest strength: Defensive physicality. The Steelers’ strength entering this season was their undoing in their 2024 season-ending five-game losing streak. To rectify the issue, they drafted defensive linemen Derrick Harmon and Yahya Black, traded for CB Jalen Ramsey and signed CB Darius Slay. Adding those players to a defense that already includes a newly extended LB T.J. Watt and DT Cameron Heyward, who is coming off an All-Pro season, figures to return this group to the unit that held teams to 16.9 points per game through the first 11 weeks — not the one that gave up 27 PPG in the last seven of 2024. — Brooke Pryor

Biggest concern: Offensive cohesion. The Steelers were OK with QB Aaron Rodgers taking his time to sign in the offseason, but now he, his offensive options and line must expedite their chemistry. Not only does Rodgers have to develop a strong connection with wide receivers, including DK Metcalf and Roman Wilson, in a condensed timeframe, but he also has to work with young offensive linemen to understand his cadence — all without playing snaps together in preseason games. Adding to the challenge is Broderick Jones moving from right tackle to left tackle and a new-look backfield after the departure of Najee Harris. — Pryor

QB stat to know: Though Rodgers ranked toward the bottom of the league in QBR, yards per attempt and turnovers during his latest two healthy seasons (2022 and 2024), an area he excelled at last year with the Jets was throwing deep. He had a 99.5 QBR on passes at least 25 yards downfield, second in the league. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: RB Kaleb Johnson. At 6-foot-1 and 224 pounds with straight-line acceleration and vision, the rookie fits the outside zone scheme in Pittsburgh. He had 21 rushes of 20 or more yards last season at Iowa, the second most in the country behind Ashton Jeanty, and Johnson can post receiving numbers on swings, screens and unders. He will share the backfield with Jaylen Warren, but earning the early-down volume can push him into the flex ranks. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Harmon will lead all rookie defensive tackles in sacks. He was the fifth DT selected, but my prospect sack model liked him the best, and he’s in a fantastic situation, playing alongside Watt, Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig and Heyward. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 35.1%
Chances to win division: 13.5%
Projected wins: 8.2
Strength of schedule: Second hardest (tie)
2024 record: 5-12

Biggest strength: Offensive weapons. The Bears added rookie tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden III to an already stacked group of returning pass catchers that features Rome Odunze, DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. Quarterback Caleb Williams has connected with all five of these players, but arguably his strongest chemistry in camp was built with wideout Olamide Zaccheaus, who arrived on a one-year deal in March. Ben Johnson has plenty of players looking for touches on offense, and that’s a good problem to have for the first-year coach. — Courtney Cronin

Biggest concern: Left tackle. It’s a position battle that spanned nearly all of camp and seems to have landed where it started, with incumbent left tackle Braxton Jones in line to start Week 1 versus Minnesota. The Bears poured a ton of resources into revamping the O-line this offseason, but how well the linemen will protect Williams’ blind side after he was sacked 68 times as a rookie remains a question. — Cronin

QB stat to know: Williams ranked 28th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks in QBR in 2024 and averaged 5.1 yards per dropback (fewest in the NFL). Williams was sacked 68 times, 16 more than any other QB last season (Stroud, 52). — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: Burden. A rookie with upper-tier catch-and-run traits, Burden can be schemed up in Johnson’s offense. In addition to running multilevel routes from the slot and perimeter, Burden can produce on manufactured touches. He will have to compete for targets with Moore, Odunze and Loveland, but Burden has the playmaking talent to post breakout weeks. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: The Bears will rank in the top six in pass block win rate. This is, in part, because I’m buying their offensive line retooling and they have two tackles in Darnell Wright and Jones (assuming he wins the job) who were above average in PBWR in 2023 before falling off in 2024. It doesn’t mean there won’t be sacks — a lot of that is on Williams — but strong blocking will help all facets of the passing game. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 38.1%
Chances to win division: 16.1%
Projected wins: 8.3
Strength of schedule: Fifth easiest (tie)
2024 record: 8-9

Biggest strength: The defensive front. The Cardinals invested heavily in rebuilding their defensive line and edge rushers, signing pass rusher Josh Sweat and linemen Dalvin Tomlinson and Calais Campbell, and drafting edge rusher Jordan Burch. It has led to the Cardinals having their best and deepest defensive front in some time. But if that front can’t get to the quarterback and regularly stop the run, all the work general manager Monti Ossenfort put in and all the money he spent will have gone for naught. — Josh Weinfuss

Biggest concern: Will Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. be on the same page in 2025? Last season, Murray completed 54.4% of his throws to Harrison, but there were noticeable miscommunications. All offseason, coach Jonathan Gannon and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing have talked about how reps together will improve their continuity on the field and help that quarterback-receiver relationship. How goes the Murray-Harrison connection, so goes the offense. — Weinfuss

QB stat to know: Murray continues to have success on the ground. Since 2023, 73 NFL players have 100-plus rush attempts; Murray leads them all with 7.5 yards per rush. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: Harrison. Bet on the talent with the wide receiver in his second pro season. In 2024, Harrison caught eight touchdowns, and his 17 end zone targets ranked third in the league. With a more versatile route tree, one that leans away from the heavy vertical aspect, Harrison can post steady WR2 numbers. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Nickel corner Garrett Williams will lead all slot defenders in yards per coverage snap allowed. He wasn’t that far off last year. His 0.7 yards per coverage snap in 2024, per NFL Next Gen Stats, ranked second behind only Derwin James Jr. at 0.5. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 28.2%
Chances to win division: 11.5%
Projected wins: 7.7
Strength of schedule: Fifth hardest (tie)
2024 record: 7-10

Biggest strength: First-year coach Brian Schottenheimer can say he wants to run the ball, but his biggest strength will be the passing game that revolves around Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Lamb can beat defenses at any level, and Pickens can get down the field with some of the best. And the last time Prescott played a full season (2023), he was the MVP runner-up. When it comes to crunch time, Schottenheimer will put his trust in this trio. — Todd Archer

Biggest concern: The defense. The trade of Micah Parsons gives the Cowboys questions everywhere. Can their pass rushers produce without as much attention being paid to Parsons? Do they have enough corners, even with Trevon Diggs on the roster to start the season? Is DT Kenny Clark, acquired it the Parsons trade, enough to fix a run defense that has been leaky for years? New coordinator Matt Eberflus has his work cut out for him. — Archer

QB stat to know: In the 25 games started by Prescott over the past two seasons when Schottenheimer was the offensive coordinator, the Cowboys averaged 27.2 PPG, which would’ve been the fourth highest by any team during that span, behind the Lions (30.1), Ravens (29.4) and Bills (28.7). — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: RB Jaydon Blue. The Cowboys signed veterans Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders this offseason. However, Blue’s 4.38 speed and matchup ability as a receiver could allow him to get reps in the Dallas backfield. At 5-9 and 196 pounds, Blue is best suited to press the ball to the edges as a runner, while he wins on backfield releases. Blue missed time in camp because of an injury, but he is worth a late-round add in PPR leagues. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Kavontae Turpin will record multiple kick returns for touchdowns this season. Turpin led the NFL by a mile in kick return yards over expectation (+292) last year, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and with touchbacks now out to the 35-yard line, there should be plenty more returns this season. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 33.5%
Chances to win division: 14.3%
Projected wins: 8.1
Strength of schedule: 11th easiest (tie)
2024 record: 10-7

Biggest strength: Continuity on defense. The Seahawks finished ninth in points allowed during coach Mike Macdonald’s debut season and have almost every key player back. In fact, 13 of the 16 defenders who played at least 300 snaps last season are still with the team. The same scheme taught by the same coaches to mostly the same group of players — with veteran edge DeMarcus Lawrence and rookie safety Nick Emmanwori as key additions — is good reason to think Macdonald’s group can take a step forward. — Brady Henderson

Biggest concern: Lack of continuity on offense. They’ve got a new coordinator, Klint Kubiak, who’s installing a new scheme with a mostly new coaching staff. They also have at least six new starters on that side of the ball, including quarterback Sam Darnold and two of his top three receivers. Kubiak’s unit has looked good enough of late not to be a major concern, but how quickly will all of those new players come together?

QB stat to know: Darnold, who signed as a free agent this offseason, is on his fourth team in as many years. During his breakout season with the Vikings in 2024, he set an NFL record for most touchdown passes (35) by a player who changed teams during the offseason. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: Elijah Arroyo. The tight end is a fluid mover in the open field with the buildup speed to tack on numbers after the catch, and he has the profile to be used as a “move” tight end under Kubiak. In his final college season at Miami, Arroyo caught 35 passes for 590 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s a deeper-league target. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Linebacker Ernest Jones IV will lead off-ball linebackers in pressures. Jones blitzed 15% of the time last season between Tennessee and Seattle, but in 2023 with the Rams, he blitzed 23% of the time (29% of the time in clear passing situations) and recorded a massive 35% pass rush win rate. In his first full season with the Seahawks, Macdonald could use Jones in creative pressure plays that result in him putting the quarterback under duress. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 34.9%
Chances to win division: 14.7%
Projected wins: 8.1
Strength of schedule: 11th easiest (tie)
2024 record: 8-9

Biggest strength: The front seven. They’re tired of hearing about their durability, but if Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb and Chop Robinson can remain healthy, the Dolphins will have one of the better pass rushes in the NFL this season. Factor in defensive linemen Zach Sieler and Kenneth Grant, and versatile linebackers Jordyn Brooks, Tyrel Dodson and Willie Gay Jr., and the core of Miami’s defense shouldn’t have an issue pressuring quarterbacks and defending the run. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Biggest concern: The players behind that front seven — the secondary. Miami knows what it’s getting in Minkah Fitzpatrick but has a completely revamped secondary from a season ago. Second-year UDFA Storm Duck figures to start opposite Jack Jones at cornerback, and the group is unproven together. The Dolphins haven’t shown much concern for the group this offseason and believe the success of their defense starts up front. — Louis-Jacques

QB stat to know: Miami’s success hinges on Tua Tagovailoa‘s health, as the Dolphins were markedly better with their franchise quarterback on the field last season. Over the past three seasons (including the playoffs), Miami is 25-17 with Tagovailoa starting and 3-8 with all other quarterbacks. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: RB Ollie Gordon II. With De’Von Achane sidelined because of a calf injury, Gordon has value in the later rounds if he can lock down the No. 2 role in Miami. The rookie from Oklahoma State is a physical runner who can get north-south, and he can push the pile between the tackles. Plus, Gordon is a capable receiver on screens and could play a defined role early this season. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: WR Tyreek Hill will be traded. It’s hardly the boldest call on this list, considering how last year ended, but if Miami’s season goes south quickly — and it certainly could — it will make sense to deal Hill midway through the campaign to maximize the return as soon as possible rather than holding on to an aging player as a non-contender in the second half. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 39.3%
Chances to win division: 27.1%
Projected wins: 8.1
Strength of schedule: Ninth easiest (tie)
2024 record: 4-13

Biggest strength: The Jaguars have arguably the best specialists in the league. Punter Logan Cooke made his first Pro Bowl last season and has the best net punt average (43.5 yards) and the most punts downed inside the 10-yard line (83) since entering the NFL in 2018. Long-snapper Ross Matiscik made the past two Pro Bowls and was a first-team All-Pro in 2023. Kicker Cam Little made 27 of 29 field goal attempts (including a 59-yarder) and all 27 PATs as a rookie last season. He hit a 70-yarder in the first preseason game earlier this month. — Mike DiRocco

Biggest concern: The run defense is a concern, but the defense’s lack of takeaways was a major issue last season. The Jaguars forced only nine turnovers, the fewest by a team in the 17-game era (tying the record Jacksonville set in 2021). That includes just six interceptions, which was a big reason the Jaguars were last in the NFL in pass defense (257.4 yards per game). They added three new starters in the secondary — corners Jourdan Lewis and Travis Hunter and safety Eric Murray — and pass rushers Emmanuel Ogbah (47.5 career sacks) and Dawuane Smoot (25), as well as new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile. — DiRocco

QB stat to know: Injuries derailed the end of his season, but quarterback Trevor Lawrence struggled in the 10 games he played. His 61% completion rate ranked above only Anthony Richardson Sr.‘s 48% in 2024 among 36 qualified quarterbacks. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: Hunter. The CB/WR brings a true playmaking element to coach Liam Coen’s system. A sudden mover after the catch with electric ability in the open field, Hunter also has elite ball skills and body control at the catch point. Though his total snap count on offense has yet to be determined, Hunter fits as a WR3 who could produce WR2 numbers some weeks with his ability to flip the field. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: The percentage of snaps Hunter plays will total at least 145% if we add offense and defense. There have been plenty of signs that the Jaguars intend to give Hunter a major role on both sides of the ball, but it’s one thing to intend to do that in August and another to have him execute that plan during the regular season. I’m a believer, though. People don’t play both ways in college either, and Hunter did it at altitude. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 32.0%
Chances to win division: 21.1%
Projected wins: 7.7
Strength of schedule: Eighth easiest
2024 record: 8-9

Biggest strength: Defensive line. The Colts rank in the top 10 in spending on interior defensive linemen and edge rushers, and that has created perhaps the team’s strongest position group. The unit is anchored by DT DeForest Buckner and has several solid veterans throughout, such as DEs Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam and NT Grover Stewart. The additions of 2024 first-round choice Laiatu Latu and this year’s second-round pick JT Tuimoloau give the group a chance to reach the next level. — Stephen Holder

Biggest concern: Quarterback. The Colts have selected Daniel Jones as their Week 1 starter over third-year player and incumbent starter Anthony Richardson Sr., the latest domino to fall in the team’s woeful quarterback story. Jones will be the Colts’ 11th different starting quarterback in a regular-season game since Andrew Luck abruptly retired before the 2019 season. Indianapolis’ lack of stability at the position continues to undermine what is otherwise a mostly solid roster. — Holder

QB stat to know: Jones is 4-0 against the AFC South in his career, and his QBR of 81 in those games is the highest by any quarterback with at least three starts against his new division over the past five seasons. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: TE Tyler Warren. A physical and rugged mover who can work the middle of the field and produce after the catch, Warren can impact the Colts’ passing game from a variety of pre-snap alignments. He had 104 receptions in his final season at Penn State, and he should be a reliable target for Jones. Warren is an upside play who can be drafted as a fringe TE1 in 12-team leagues. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Adonai Mitchell will record at least 700 receiving yards. I’m a believer in the receiver after a somewhat disappointing rookie campaign, which was plagued by missed connections downfield, because he also showed signs of real potential. Mitchell recorded an 82 open score (top 10 among wide receivers). I’m betting that skill will pay dividends. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 24.1%
Chances to win division: 6.9%
Projected wins: 7.5
Strength of schedule: 16th hardest
2024 record: 4-13

Biggest strength: Coaching. Pete Carroll has only four losing seasons in his 18-year NFL coaching career. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who helped Ohio State win a national title last season, has plenty of players to get creative with his scheme. Even though Las Vegas has a strong foundation for the future, Carroll wants to win right away, and his team will be competitive enough to give opponents problems weekly. — Ryan McFadden

Biggest concern: Depth. The Raiders have a significant talent drop-off at multiple positions. Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker are the only wide receivers to surpass 500 yards in a season. Eric Stokes has started 32 career games, and the rest of the group has a combined 22 starts. If the Raiders are to overcome their depth issues, they will need rookies such as wide receiver Dont’e Thornton Jr., cornerback Darien Porter, and defensive tackles Tonka Hemingway and JJ Pegues to be solid contributors. — McFadden

QB stat to know: Over the past three seasons, Geno Smith has been one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league, ranking fourth in completion percentage and first in off-target rate. Over that span, Raiders quarterbacks ranked 25th in completion percentage and 23rd in off-target rate. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: Meyers, assuming his trade request isn’t granted. The receiver averaged 14.4 PPG last season with 10 games of double-digit fantasy production and six games with at least 10 targets. A physical route runner with the frame to uncover and work the interior of the field, Meyers will remain a primary target opposite tight end Brock Bowers in an upgraded Raiders pass game with Smith at QB and Kelly calling plays. Meyers is a solid — and consistent — WR3. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Kelly will be an NFL head coach in 2026. OK, technically that isn’t a bold prediction for 2025, but there’s no way Kelly will land another head coaching job unless his Raiders offense in 2025 does well. Once it does, owners will zoom out and look at that, his success at Ohio State, his time as UCLA’s head coach and parts of his previous NFL tenure and think: That’s a pretty good résumé! — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 37.4%
Chances to win division: 26.5%
Projected wins: 8.1
Strength of schedule: 13th easiest
2024 record: 8-9

Biggest strength: The running game. Bijan Robinson was third in the league in rushing yards (1,456) and tied for the third-most rushing touchdowns (14). Tyler Allgeier is one of the best No. 2 backs in the NFL (he has a 1,000-yard rushing season), and the offensive line is among the league’s best units, with a rare amount of continuity. The Falcons were fourth last season in percentage of rush yards over expected (38.8%). — Marc Raimondi

Biggest concern: Will second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. be as good as the Falcons think? Penix performed relatively well in his three 2024 starts. In that limited time, he was tied for ninth among quarterbacks in EPA per dropback (0.11, minimum 100 dropbacks). He is aggressive and will make big plays. Penix was tied for first last season in air yards per completion (8.0). But his accuracy must improve. In 2024, he was fifth worst in completion percentage over expected (-5.3%). — Raimondi

QB stat to know: In his limited work late last season, Penix attempted 26 passes of 15 or more air yards downfield, by far the most of any player over the final two weeks of the regular season. However, he completed only 10 of those attempts (38%). — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: WR Darnell Mooney. He is still out because of a shoulder injury sustained early in camp. When he returns, however, Mooney has the skill set and route deployment to join the WR3 discussion. Last season, Mooney averaged 12.2 PPG and 15.5 yards per reception. Plus, with Penix taking over the offense this season, look for the Falcons’ pass game to get a boost. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Center Ryan Neuzil will rank in the top five in run block win rate. In 547 snaps last season, he posted a 71% RBWR (ninth best at center), and some unpublished work I did this offseason measuring the vertical push of offensive linemen on run plays reflected very favorably on Neuzil. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 30.5%
Chances to win division: 13.1%
Projected wins: 7.9
Strength of schedule: Third easiest
2024 record: 4-13

Biggest strength: Rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson. It is perhaps bold to highlight a rookie second-round pick, but he is unlike any RB the Patriots have had speed-wise in recent years, and he has also shown a knack for running between the tackles, as evidenced by his 100-yard return for a TD on the opening kickoff of the preseason and his 8-yard TD run in Week 2. The Patriots finally have a player who is a threat to score any time he touches the football. — Mike Reiss

Biggest concern: Depth across the roster. The drop-off from starter to backup at the majority of positions is significant, which highlights the organization’s struggle at drafting and developing in recent years. However, the 2025 draft class appears to be a solid foundation, with three projected opening-day starters (not including specialists). — Reiss

QB stat to know: Drake Maye recorded 2,276 passing yards, 15 passing TDs and 409 rushing yards in 13 games (12 starts) as a rookie. Maye recorded those numbers without a 700-yard receiver; tight end Hunter Henry was the team leader with 674 receiving yards. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: Henderson. A slasher with big-play ability and the pass-catching skills to produce on third downs, Henderson will share the backfield with Rhamondre Stevenson. Henderson caught 46 passes over his final two seasons at Ohio State (a number that will elevate in a pro offense), and he can operate as a matchup target for Maye. With the expected volume here, Henderson has upside as an RB2. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Free agent addition DT Milton Williams will finish outside the top 10 in pass rush win rate and have fewer than 5.0 sacks. At $26 million per year, the Patriots are expecting him to hit at least one of those marks. But I have some questions about how well Williams will fare when he has to play more — and without the Eagles’ defensive front around him. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 11.3%
Chances to win division: 3.9%
Projected wins: 6.4
Strength of schedule: Hardest
2024 record: 7-10

Biggest strength: The defensive front. Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence II were in the top 20 in pressure percentage at their respective positions last season. Kayvon Thibodeaux already has a double-digit sack season (11.5 in 2023). Add No. 3 draft pick Abdul Carter to that mix, and the Giants’ pass rush has the potential to be lethal. Now, the Giants have to get the lead and stop the run to maximize that talent. — Jordan Raanan

Biggest concern: Can the offense score enough? The Giants have raved about veteran quarterback Russell Wilson‘s leadership and the effect it will have on the group. But is it enough to turn the 31st-ranked scoring offense into a more effective unit? New York returns 10 of 11 starters on offense, and perhaps its most indispensable player, left tackle Andrew Thomas, was recently activated off the PUP list and didn’t play a preseason snap. — Raanan

QB stat to know: In free agency, the Giants added Wilson, who won Super Bowl XLVIII at MetLife Stadium and is the only one of the 34 different quarterbacks to start at least four games there (including playoffs) without losing since it opened in 2010. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: Wan’Dale Robinson. He is an easy separator underneath with the catch-and-run traits to tack on numbers (52.1% of his receiving yardage came after the catch). Plus, Robinson averaged 10.7 PPG on a subpar Giants team last season, with nine games of double-digit production and 12 weeks with at least five targets. He’s a late-round option in 12-team leagues who will see volume out of the slot in coach Brian Daboll’s offense. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: QB Jaxson Dart will make his first start no later than Week 5. There has been buzz around Dart’s preseason, and I can’t imagine the Giants are too excited to cling to the Wilson era longer than they have to with a first-round QB waiting in the wings. Facing the Saints in Week 5 could be a nice soft landing for Dart to begin his NFL career. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 21.0%
Chances to win division: 14.0%
Projected wins: 7.0
Strength of schedule: Fifth easiest (tie)
2024 record: 5-12

Biggest strength: The starting offensive line. Everyone is back, plus key backups, from a unit that allowed 36 sacks last season, which was way down from the 65 it gave up in 2023. This group also paved the way for the 18th-best rushing attack in 2024. Not great but a key to the offense’s improvement, nonetheless. This bodes well for QB Bryce Young, whose late-season performance was bolstered by better protection and a strong run game. — David Newton

Biggest concern: The defense. There could be as many as six new starters on a unit that finished last in the NFL in several major categories last season, most notably run defense, quarterback pressure, total yards allowed and total points allowed. Getting Pro Bowl DL Derrick Brown back will help. So will the free agent additions. But overall, the depth is thin, and it might take a while for this group to jell. — Newton

QB stat to know: Though Young had a rough start to the 2024 season and was benched after Week 2, he returned for Week 8 and had a strong finish. He was sensational over the final three weeks of the regular season with 10 pass/rush touchdowns, zero turnovers and the third-best QBR of any quarterback from Weeks 16 to 18. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: WR Tetairoa McMillan. More smooth than fast, McMillan can play as a boundary X or create inside matchups from the slot. With his 6-4 frame, he can get up high on contested throws, and he has a good feel for finding open voids versus zone concepts. McMillan will play a volume role as a rookie, which creates a WR3 floor. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: The Panthers will record the fewest sacks in the league. For starters, I don’t see where the pass rush is coming from (especially if rookie Nic Scourton misses time after suffering a collapsed lung). But also, I doubt the Panthers will be leading in many games. If they’re behind, their opponents will run on them, limiting the sack opportunities. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 15.6%
Chances to win division: 5.7%
Projected wins: 6.9
Strength of schedule: Seventh easiest
2024 record: 5-12

Biggest strength: Defense. They still have six of their top nine snap leaders from the 2023 defense, which finished No. 3 in EPA. Edge rusher Will McDonald IV, a seldom-used rookie in 2023, is now one of their top players. This unit has talent at all three levels. Look for more blitzing and more man coverage than in recent years. The defense will have to carry the flag until the offense finds its way. — Rich Cimini

Biggest concern: Justin Fields and the passing attack. Fields is only a 61% career passer who has yet to throw more than 17 touchdowns in a season, and now he has a receiving corps that includes just one legitimate playmaker (Garrett Wilson). The Jets will rely on scheme (RPOs and play-action) to create open looks for Fields. This will be a run-first offense, with Breece Hall, Braelon Allen and Fields leading the way. — Cimini

QB stat to know: Fields recorded a 51 QBR last season. The last Jets quarterback to post at least a 50 QBR (considered average on a 0-100 scale) in a season was Josh McCown in 2017. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: Fields. The quarterback averaged 18.9 PPG in his six starts with the Steelers last season. He passed for 1,106 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 289 yards and five more scores. Fields will have a true No.1 wide receiver in Wilson, while Hall can operate as an underneath target at running back. With Fields’ high-level dual-threat traits, he should be targeted as a fringe QB1 in 12-team leagues. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: The Jets will lead the league in run rate over expectation. And that number won’t even include Fields’ scrambles, which I expect to be plentiful! With Fields at quarterback and no great receiving playmakers after Wilson, I expect this team will run the ball a lot. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 8.5%
Chances to win division: 2.3%
Projected wins: 6.1
Strength of schedule: 13th hardest
2024 record: 3-14

Biggest strength: Defensive line. Myles Garrett is a year removed from being named Defensive Player of the Year, and the Browns have multiple players equipped to take advantage of one-on-one opportunities as he commands extra attention. Free agent signing Maliek Collins had the seventh-highest pass rush win rate as an interior defender last season, and Mason Graham, the No. 5 pick, had nine sacks in three seasons with Michigan. — Daniel Oyefusi

Biggest concern: Quarterback. Joe Flacco will begin the year as the starter, but he hasn’t played an entire season since 2017. Kenny Pickett is on his third team in four years, and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders might not be ready to play for a while. The Browns have started a league-high 40 passers since 1999, and the likelihood is they add more players to that tally. — Oyefusi

QB stat to know: The Browns desperately need an upgrade at quarterback this season. In 2024, their quarterbacks had a 35 QBR, the worst in the league. In addition, Cleveland has not had a Pro Bowl QB since Derek Anderson in 2007, the longest active drought in the NFL. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: WR Cedric Tillman. With Flacco entering the season as the No.1 quarterback, Tillman has potential as a late-round target. A 6-3 receiver who can play through contact and win on in-breaking concepts, Tillman averaged 18.8 points from Weeks 7 to 11 last season before suffering a concussion that ended his season. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: The Browns will trade Joel Bitonio or Wyatt Teller in-season. It makes too much sense. They are veteran guards, each in the last year of their contracts, on a team likely going nowhere in 2025. Plus, the Browns have Teven Jenkins waiting in the wings. — Walder

Full schedule | Roster | Depth chart | Read more on CLE

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Chances to make the playoffs: 15.6%
Chances to win division: 9.3%
Projected wins: 6.7
Strength of schedule: Fourth easiest
2024 record: 3-14

Biggest strength: Offensive line. General manager Mike Borgonzi wanted to invest in the trenches, so Tennessee strengthened both tackle spots by signing Dan Moore Jr. and flipping JC Latham to the right side. Kevin Zeitler helps shore up the interior next to Latham. The Titans now have two Day 1 picks in Latham and Peter Skoronski on the line and two free agents on lucrative deals in Moore and Lloyd Cushenberry III (center) to go along with Zeitler, who’s a proven veteran. — Turron Davenport

Biggest concern: Coach Brian Callahan. The once highly sought-after coach struggled last season, but he is clawing to find his way. Callahan has to show that he can effectively call plays and outfox opposing coaches. That will be difficult with a roster that doesn’t have a lot of premier players. The front office is willing to show patience with Callahan because it believes he can get it right. Developing No. 1 draft pick Cam Ward will be the key. — Davenport

QB stat to know: In his final season at Miami, Ward threw for 4,313 yards. Only twice in franchise history has the team had a QB throw for at least 4,000 yards in a season, both times coming before the team moved to Tennessee (Warren Moon in 1990 and 1991). — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: Ward. A big-arm thrower with movement skills and the creativity to work outside of structure, Ward is a solid fit for the Titans’ offense. He has a top target in receiver Calvin Ridley, tight end Chig Okonkwo can produce after the catch, and the team signed veteran receiver Tyler Lockett. Ward has starting value in 2QB/superflex formats and can climb the QB2 ranks. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Ward will have under a 5% sack rate. That would be a nice building block to his NFL career, and tough to do if the Titans are usually losing. But Ward was better than average at avoiding sacks last season with Miami (4.3% sack rate), and I like the Titans’ additions to their offensive line. — Walder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 17.1%
Chances to win division: 10.9%
Projected wins: 6.8
Strength of schedule: Second easiest
2024 record: 5-12

Biggest strength: Safeties. The Saints have revamped their secondary, as four of their Week 1 starters in the backfield from last year are gone (Marshon Lattimore traded, Paulson Adebo and Will Harris left in free agency, Tyrann Mathieu retired). But the Saints made two solid signings at safety, adding Justin Reid early in free agency and getting Julian Blackmon after Mathieu’s departure. Both become instant starters and bring veteran experience, while rookie safety Jonas Sanker has had an impressive camp. This group didn’t show signs of falling off in camp despite Mathieu’s surprise retirement. — Katherine Terrell

Biggest concern: Quarterback. The Saints took their quarterback competition through the preseason — an indication that neither Tyler Shough nor Spencer Rattler had made an obvious case to win the job early. Last week, coach Kellen Moore announced that Rattler won the job. The Saints didn’t have a lot of depth at their skill positions last season because of injuries, and that remains the case beyond Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. That means the team will need Rattler to step up big to elevate the rest of the offense. — Terrell

QB stat to know: After Derek Carr‘s retirement, Shough was selected by the Saints in the second round of the draft. As the third-oldest quarterback drafted in the first two rounds in the common draft era — he turns 26 in September — Shough brings a lot of experience to New Orleans despite being a rookie. — ESPN Research

How to win your fantasy league: Shaheed. The receiver’s 2024 season was cut short because of surgery to repair a torn meniscus, but he has the deep-ball ability and catch-and-run juice to produce in the Saints’ system under Moore. In six games last season, Shaheed averaged 13.3 PPG and 17.3 yards per catch. He can be schemed by Moore to test multiple levels of the field. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2025: Olave will be a top-15 wide receiver in total fantasy points. Concussions cost Olave half the season last year, and considering he is being drafted as WR40, it seems it’s being forgotten just how good the young receiver has been in his short career. He broke 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first two years in the league and recorded a 75 open score or better (well above average) in all three of his NFL seasons. — Walder

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Additional reporting by Todd Archer, Rob Demovsky, Dan Graziano and Seth Wickersham

THE PIVOTAL MEETING that led to one of the most shocking NFL trades of the past decade occurred on a pleasant North Texas morning in mid-March, five months and a lifetime of ill feelings ahead of any deal being put to paper.

The agenda for the March 18 one-on-one in Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones’ office at The Star, the team’s headquarters in Frisco, Texas, between Jones and two-time first-team All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons remains in question. A source close to Jones says it was Parsons who asked for the meeting, and that the 82-year-old owner always understood the subject to be Parsons’ contract. After declaring in February 2024 that he wanted to be a Cowboy “for life,” Parsons had been trying to reach an extension with the team, without success.

“Jerry and Micah had met periodically over the last four years to discuss business and leadership issues,” the source said, noting that the then-25-year-old Parsons viewed Jones as a mentor. “Jerry loved having these discussions with Micah. But the meeting in March wasn’t that, despite Micah saying publicly later it was to discuss leadership. Micah told Jerry, ‘I want to come in and discuss where we are,’ meaning a contract extension. So that was Jerry’s expectation.”

A source close to Parsons said this is “absolutely not” true and that Jones called Parsons in for a leadership meeting, only to steer the conversation toward contract talks. The source says Parsons directed Jones to talk details with his agent, David Mulugheta. However the conversation got to a contract extension, both parties acknowledge that it got there.

Over a three-hour meeting, Jones and Parsons discussed numbers, years and guaranteed money. Both sides expected to reset the market for edge rushers, topping the $40 million average per season and $123.5 million guaranteed that Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns had received nine days earlier. Parsons’ 52.5 sacks in his career are the fifth most in a player’s first four seasons. Jones said after Parsons left his office at The Star, the owner believed an agreement was done.

Later the same day, Parsons called Cowboys chief operating officer and co-owner Stephen Jones, Jerry’s son, in an attempt to get more money out of the deal, the source told ESPN.

“[Parsons] called Stephen and asked can we do this, can we change the numbers and up the guarantee,” the source said. “He started negotiating. He asked for several different elements and increases. This became a negotiation that Micah was in charge of.”

Stephen Jones consulted with his father, and Jerry agreed to the sweetened terms. The Cowboys believed they had a deal in place with Parsons and would continue to insist that he had agreed to it. Though the exact terms aren’t known, Cowboys sources insist they offered more guaranteed money than the $136 million Parsons would get from Green Bay, albeit spread across a five-year extension, not the four-year extension the Packers worked out.

“It was north of $150 million,” the source said.

The Cowboys had been known to conduct contract talks without players’ agents present — a practice known around the league as “hotboxing.” Dak Prescott‘s 2024 deal was one such negotiation, whereby the Joneses and the quarterback discussed Prescott’s place within the organization’s future and Prescott’s agent, Todd France, came in later to negotiate the finer details of a contract. (“I never engaged in numbers,” Prescott said.) The deal was eventually signed the day of Dallas’ first game of the season. If the Cowboys expected this negotiation to follow the same path, Mulugheta was about to confront them with a counterpoint.

Jones would say in August on Michael Irvin’s podcast, “We were going to send [the terms] over to the agent and the agent said don’t bother because we’ve got all that to negotiate.”

To this day, Parsons’ agency has never seen the final details or structure of the deal that Jones said he cut with Parsons in April, per a source close to Parsons. Jones and Mulugheta would never truly negotiate at any point. Dallas would simply say the deal is done; Parsons can have it if he wants it. (Mulugheta declined to comment for this story.)

“I’m the one who has to sign the check and Micah is the one who has to agree to it,” Jones said on April 1 at the NFL owners spring meeting in Palm Beach, Florida. “That’s the straightest way to get there, is the one who writes the check and the one who is agreeing to it talking.”

The Jones source said he had nothing against Mulugheta, though Jones insisted to reporters in Palm Beach that he didn’t know Mulugheta’s name, adding, “The agent is not a factor here, or something to worry about.” At that point, Jones was dug in because “Micah looked him in his eyes and said we have a deal.” The source relayed a feeling from Jones of, “Oh so that’s how they are going to do it. Micah is going to negotiate with us, we’re going to go up, we’re going to have an agreement, and then the agent says that’s the floor and we’re going to go from there?”

“Jerry was like, ‘Hell no. That’s not the way this is going to work.’”

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WITH THE PARSONS situation seemingly at an impasse, the Cowboys readied themselves for the 2025 NFL draft in late April. Parsons’ future with the team was not an issue stressed by draft pundits or armchair analysts, most of whom had Dallas selecting a wide receiver with the No. 12 pick. The Cowboys would fill a different need by taking guard Tyler Booker, then in early May getting their receiver by making a trade with the Pittsburgh Steelers to obtain mercurial wideout George Pickens.

The benefit of hindsight suggests Dallas’ second-round selection had greater meaning than believed at the time, though a Cowboys source said the Parsons matter did not affect their draft board. Edge rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku, chosen with the No. 44 pick, came off a season in which he led the FBS with 62 quarterback pressures and had 16.5 sacks. Those seeking subtext behind the Ezeiruaku pick mostly noted that edge rushers Dante Fowler Jr. (signed on a one-year deal in March — the Packers were believed by league sources to be runners-up for his services) and Sam Williams were heading into contract years, and that the rookie could help ensure the future. Less meaningful to observers was the fact that Parsons was headed into a contract year too.

Although Jones would later say the team began discussing the idea of a Parsons trade in the spring, Dallas did not explore trade talks involving Parsons before the draft, per a Cowboys team source. For one, the contract negotiations were still fresh and the team harbored hope of Parsons accepting the previously discussed deal. The Cowboys also prefer to do trades postdraft when they believe other teams are less inclined to cling to personnel. The Pickens deal reinforced that philosophy.

But the longer Parsons went without a contract, the less likely he and Mulugheta were to accept the terms Jones believed had been agreed upon in March — the edge rusher market had begun to skyrocket. In the weeks before the Jones/Parsons summit at the Cowboys practice facility, the Las Vegas Raiders‘ Maxx Crosby (three years, $106.5 million, $91.5 million guaranteed) and Browns’ Garrett ($40 million per year and $123.5 million guaranteed) had inked new deals. By mid-July, the Steelers’ T.J. Watt would sign a three-year, $123 million extension that established him as the league’s highest-paid nonquarterback on an average salary per year basis.

Sources close to Parsons believed that he, more than three years younger than Garrett and five years younger than Watt, would blow those deals away. And a Cowboys source said the team got indications that Parsons’ camp would prefer to “go last” in the pass-rush market, because prices were only rising.

As Jones watched the market spike around him, the Cowboys owner and GM grew increasingly comfortable letting Parsons play on his fifth-year option or trading him.

Balancing the cost of the entire roster was a factor in Dallas’ calculus. Only one team — the Cincinnati Bengals — has three players making at least $30 million per year. If the Cowboys had given Parsons more than $40 million annually, they would have had the league’s highest-paid defender, highest-paid quarterback in Prescott ($60 million per year) and one of the highest-paid wide receivers in CeeDee Lamb ($34 million).

If the Cowboys weren’t paying Parsons, it would make negotiating with in-house stars, most notably guard Tyler Smith and cornerback DaRon Bland, an easier proposition. Smith, a 2022 first-round pick, could get his extension after Year 3 in a way Parsons did not. Bland was signed to a four-year, $92 million extension on Sunday.

“It’s an allocation of money,” Jones said the night the trade was completed. “So, we chose to have numbers of players that we could pay handsomely that would be those caliber of players, not young practice squad players. We’re talking players that can really compete.”

And while Parsons’ presence in the lineup was impossible to replicate — by expected points added per play from 2021 through 2024, the Cowboys were the NFL’s best defense with Parsons on the field and the league’s worst by the same metric when he was not — Dallas also believed there were times when his skills were counterproductive to the winning cause. Parsons ranked 68th among edge rushers in stop rate against the run and 81st in yards per run stop last season, according to the FTN Football Almanac.

“For Jerry, it came back to we have got to be able to stop the run,” the source close to Jones said. “Micah does not do that. In fact, because we couldn’t stop the run, it made Micah less effective. Then they’re going to run right at him, and that’s not what he does. We could not take care of mission critical.”

Still, the Cowboys were preparing as if Parsons would be in the lineup in 2025. They understood how difficult it would be to trade him, even though a team source said they were unconcerned about the public relations fallout the team would face given his popularity with fans. This was a business and personnel consideration only, and the Joneses’ belief that the price would have to be two first-round picks and an established defensive player was crystallized as the return about a week out from the trade, per a team source.

The last star pass rusher traded on his rookie contract — also right before the start of the season — was Khalil Mack in 2018. The Chicago Bears sent two-first-round picks to the then-Oakland Raiders to acquire him; Mack had 40.5 sacks through four seasons, 12.5 fewer than Parsons over the same time frame. Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst, in his first season in charge at the time, had a comparable offer to the Raiders turned down, an experience that might have helped get the deal for Parsons over the line.

“I think what I learned from [the Mack] experience is you’ve got to be in it early,” Gutekunst said Friday.

Only a week out from the start of the regular season, there simply wouldn’t be many trade suitors willing to pay that freight, especially when they would have to negotiate a market-shattering new contract with Parsons on top of the draft and personnel capital they would be expending.

Meanwhile, Parsons himself had remained around the team, showing up to a crawfish boil and paintball outing during the first two days of the offseason program in April as a stated show of leadership and support for new coach Brian Schottenheimer. In June, Parsons told reporters he would attend training camp, though a hold-in began to emerge as a likely proposition absent a new deal.

“When you go around the league and you see these other teams taking care of their best guys, I seen T.J. [Watt] gotten taken care of. Maxx [Crosby] got taken care of. Myles [Garrett] got taken care of, [and] he’s got two years left on his deal,” Parsons said on July 22, the day after training camp began. “You see a lot of people around the league taken care of, and you wish you had that same type of energy.”

There was tension, but the relationship between Parsons and the Cowboys was bubbling at a low simmer. Almost without warning, it would boil over.

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IN AN ERA when statements from famous athletes are stage-managed within an inch of their lives by player agents and teams of publicists, this gave the appearance of something different.

At 1:16 p.m. CT on Friday, Aug. 1, Parsons transmitted three pages of single-spaced text from his iPhone’s Notes app to X, laying out chapter and verse of his discontent with the Cowboys. He revealed his perspective on the March meeting with Jones, the parameters of the contract agreement that he said he believed were a starting point and the Cowboys thought represented an agreement, and capped it all off with a trade demand.

“Unfortunately I no longer want to be here,” Parsons wrote. “I no longer want to be held to close door negotiations without my agent present. I no longer want shots taken at me for getting injured while laying it on the line for the organization our fans and my teammates. I no longer want narratives created and spread to the media about me. I had purposely stayed quiet in hopes of getting something done.”

The quiet had been interrupted, though it had been Jerry Jones who had broken the silence earlier in camp with an indictment of Parsons’ durability and availability.

“Just because we sign him doesn’t mean we’re going to have him,” Jones said. “He was hurt six games last year [actually four]. Seriously. I remember signing a player for the highest-paid at the position in the league and he got knocked out two-thirds of the year in Dak Prescott. So, there’s a lot of things you can think about, just as the player does, when you’re thinking about committing and guaranteeing money.”

Parsons had missed only one game over his first three seasons in the league.

The “repeated shots” Parsons cited continued when Jones was asked to respond to the “Pay Micah” chants the owner was serenaded with by fans at camp.

“I heard it light, but not compared to how I heard them say, ‘Pay Lamb’ [last year],” Jones said a day later. “That was a faint little sound compared to the way they were hollering last year, ‘Pay Lamb.’ … Whoever’s not in, you can count on a few hollering that. But it was a big loud chant last year on Lamb.”

Stephen Jones would further aggravate Parsons by commenting, “We want to pay Micah too, he’s got to want to be paid.”

Amid the pettiness and hurt feelings, Parsons continued to show up — a source close to Parsons said Mulugheta doesn’t see the value in players getting fined and advised him to be present — albeit while citing back tightness as the reason he wasn’t practicing. Parsons had an MRI on his back in late August that came back clean, according to Schottenheimer, and was cleared by Cowboys doctors to practice.

He continued to participate in walk-throughs and meetings but also exhibited strange behavior including not wearing his practice jersey, or on another day wearing it around his neck, and coming to practice without shoes. Before the team’s preseason finale against the Falcons, Parsons ate nachos as he walked to the locker room, and most memorably lay on a medical table during the game and appeared to close his eyes. The image went viral.

“[Cowboys pass-rushing legend] Charles Haley would have flipped him off the damn table if he saw that,” a team source said.

Parsons’ behavior during camp rubbed many in the building, including in the locker room, the wrong way, with one team source saying his energy was “deflating.” But a team source noted that Parsons stayed engaged in meetings and conducted his own two-a-days — one lift, one running session per workday. “I believed he was doing everything he could to be ready for Philly (Week 1),” the source said.

This encapsulates the Parsons experience to sources in the building over his four-year tenure. Multiple sources said he wasn’t the most diligent in the weight room or in getting treatment, though others considered him a hard worker who improved his communication skills with coaches and players but whose decision-making was sometimes in question. One example was Parsons’ outspokenness on his podcast, which rankled some teammates. The front office and coaches didn’t have a major problem with it. But teammate Malik Hooker made his issues known publicly last year. As one team source put it, Parsons was known to be critical, sometimes out of passion for the game, but coaches would urge him to consider that “you can’t call guys out who don’t have your ability,” and learning how to lead and “bring others along with you” is crucial. That part was considered a process for him.

Amid the turmoil, there were many in the game who believed a détente would eventually be reached. Multiple team sources believed Parsons was sincere in his stated desire to retire a Cowboy, noting that he recently built a home in the area. “I think he felt he was going to play out his career there,” a source said. Jerry Jones’ own words were another major reason why the matter seemed resolvable.

“Any talk of trading is B.S.,” Jones said on the “Stephen A. Smith Show” on Aug. 22 even as a team president who knows the Cowboys operation well told ESPN that in his discussions with them in August, it was clear that Dallas was prepared to move Parsons.

“Of course Jerry gave a head fake to the media,” a source close to Jones said. “You have to go out and say we are not interested in trading him. If you say you are trading him, you don’t get s—.” Jones would acknowledge to reporters after Parsons was traded that this had been a purposeful tactic.

Amid the drama around the contract and other lesser issues including Parsons’ practice habits among the pain points, the Joneses had seen enough. The Cowboys told the team president that they loved the player, but not the person. They had made up their minds. Now they just needed a trade partner.

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TWO DAYS BEFORE Parsons became a Packer, the pass rusher’s representatives made one last-ditch effort with the Cowboys — in the form of an email. The note from Mulugheta to Jerry and Stephen Jones, as one source who viewed the correspondence recalls, acknowledged that a lot of things had been said in the media, perhaps some miscommunications along the way, but despite all of that, Parsons was still willing to do a deal that would keep him in Dallas. The letter said Parsons’ representatives were willing to come to Dallas, jump on a video call, whatever it took to potentially hammer something out.

Jerry Jones responded to the message, saying the Cowboys were prepping a trade and if Parsons wanted to play in Dallas in 2025, he would have to do so on his fifth-year option. Parsons would become a free agent in 2026, but the team could also use the franchise tag to prevent his departure at that point. Parsons would have to decide his next move if the Cowboys couldn’t trade him, though a source close to him notes that Parsons never threatened to hold out and if healthy, he would have played on the option.

Things accelerated from there. The Packers, given permission to speak to Mulugheta by the Cowboys, made their first formal contract offer to Parsons on Tuesday. Green Bay had parameters of a trade hammered out that matched Dallas’ terms: Two first-round picks and veteran defensive tackle Kenny Clark would go to the Cowboys in exchange for Parsons. Clark, a staple of the Packers defense since entering the league in 2016, was hardly a throw-in. His contract was attractive — Green Bay had already paid him the bulk of his 2025 deal, so the Cowboys would pay him just $2 million this season, and $20 million unguaranteed next season. A two-year, $22 million deal for a high-level player was viewed as a win for a Dallas team that sees the 29-year-old Clark as a multiyear solution, and there would also be no dead money if the Cowboys chose to release him after the season.

“From our perspective, it had to include Kenny Clark,” a source close to Jones said. “The only way it worked for us, we need something that helps us now and helps us in the future.”

That Green Bay — the opponent that had knocked three of the best Cowboys teams of the past 11 years (2014, 2016, 2023) out of the playoffs — was the trade partner was apparently not a deterrent to getting the deal done.

As for Parsons’ new contract, while the Cowboys had been unwilling to deal with Mulugheta, the agent’s communication with the Packers was smooth, according to a source close to Parsons. Past deals for clients Jordan Love and Xavier McKinney offered familiarity between the parties, so hammering out an agreement took some time but was not painful according to the source. Had the deal fallen apart, at least three other teams were interested, and the Cowboys would not have traded Parsons within the division. One team told ESPN it wasn’t interested because it felt the price was too high for a player who might turn out to be a headache. Another believed Dallas wouldn’t trade Parsons until next spring and indicated they might be interested then.

Green Bay knew the deal would be costly and didn’t fight that reality, with a source familiar with negotiations saying the contract was “transparent and fast,” for the most part. The move to a deal gained steam in the hour or so before 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, once Mulugheta had laid out the trade terms and Parsons had signed off. Parsons’ four-year, $188 million deal included $120 million fully guaranteed at signing and $136 million in total guarantees, making him the highest-paid nonquarterback in NFL history.

The Packers have reached the playoffs five times in seven seasons under Gutekunst but have not made a Super Bowl during that time. Less than a year after Gutekunst was promoted to GM in 2018, then-team president Mark Murphy fired Mike McCarthy as coach with four games left in that season. In 2019, Murphy hired Matt LaFleur, who took Green Bay to two straight NFC title games, but the team hasn’t been back since. Both Gutekunst and LaFleur are under contract through the 2026 season, and both report to new team president Ed Policy, who took over in July after Murphy retired.

Several Packers sources said Gutekunst thought all along a trade for Parsons was a long shot. He thought that when push came to shove, Jerry Jones would not part ways with a star player in the prime of his career — an idea Gutekunst confirmed Friday in Parsons’ unveiling in Green Bay.

“The chances of these things [blockbuster trades] happening are pretty slim, and I think that was my mindset the whole time, was keep the conversations going because of the uniqueness of the player,” Gutekunst said. “But I don’t think it was really until the last few days that I actually thought, ‘Hey, there’s an opportunity here to close this thing out.’”

When doing their homework on Parsons, Gutekunst and the Packers reached out to people that had worked with, played with or coached Parsons in college and in Dallas.

He wouldn’t name names, but league sources said Gutekunst and McCarthy, who coached the Packers from 2006 to 2018 and Cowboys from 2020 to 2024, maintained a good relationship. Parsons and McCarthy had a solid connection — the edge rusher said in January that Dallas’ decision to part ways with his former coach was “devastating.”

One Packers source said the possibility of landing Parsons started to feel real about a week before the deal, which lines up with Dallas’ timeline of when the Cowboys got serious.

By late afternoon Thursday, LaFleur spoke directly with Parsons about their new partnership, with his assistant coaches coming in and out of LaFleur’s office to high-five and celebrate.

As to which team got the better end of the deal, opinions varied, though the most forceful reaction came in the form of criticism leveled at the polarizing Jerry Jones. Two NFL executives questioned why the Cowboys didn’t get more in return after the trade went down.

“Very bad for Dallas in that they received little compensation in comparison to other superstar prime trades,” a separate NFC executive said. “It’s OK for Green Bay in that their interests are to get beyond the first or second round. I think [Parsons is] a very productive regular season player. I think when teams start running heavy in the playoffs, he becomes less scary.”

In a news conference following the trade, one in which Jerry Jones repeatedly referred to Parsons as “Michael,” the owner justified the move.

“It takes more than one [player to win a championship] and so you do have to allocate your resources, whether it be draft picks or whether it be finances, you have to allocate those resources,” Jones said. “There was no question in our mind that [Micah] could bring us a lot of resources on a trade.”

As Jones took heat for the deal in some corners, others in the league were more conciliatory toward Dallas, especially when noting the increased salary cap flexibility and how it could impact the Cowboys’ negotiations with other core players.

“[Filling a] DT need and two 1s is a good haul, honestly,” an AFC executive said. “Plus, not paying another max contract. That’s a big part of this.”

The Joneses expressed a belief that they would end up with another three to five players out of the deal, in addition to taking care of Smith and Bland.

The end of the Parsons era in Dallas, perhaps fittingly, came in the form of another tweet — this one a farewell. While expressing his appreciation to Cowboys fans and vowing that North Texas would continue to be his offseason home, Parsons acknowledged the fractious negotiations that had reached a tipping point with that much-debated meeting with Jerry Jones.

“I never wanted this chapter to end, but not everything was in my control. My heart has always been here, and it still is. Through it all, I never made any demands,” Parsons said, not acknowledging his trade request. “I never asked for anything more than fairness. I only asked that the person I trust to negotiate my contract be part of the process.”

Parsons made his first appearance in Green Bay the next day, meeting the local media and expressing relief at his situation’s resolution. He dismissed his back problem — revealed on Monday to be an L4/L5 facet joint sprain for which the Cowboys had prescribed a five-day plan of an anti-inflammatory corticosteroid and a physical therapy program — as something that would be a major issue, reinforcing the belief that his contract, not health, was at the core of his limited summer participation. Parsons practiced with the Packers on Monday.

“I think physically, you know, I’m great,” Parsons said. “I think I can contribute a lot. I’m going to team up with the doctors in creating a plan. We already talked about how we can ramp things up and get me into a flow where they feel comfortable and I feel comfortable.”

Parsons will return to Dallas with his new team on Sept. 28, for a Sunday night, Week 4 showdown against the Cowboys. His final appearance at AT&T Stadium as a Cowboy will be remembered for the sight of Parsons splayed across a training table. His next one, wearing a Packers uniform, figures to restore the vision of how Parsons became one of the elite defensive players of his generation in the first place. Parsons himself noted the stakes of what comes next.

“They didn’t give up what they gave up for me to sit on the sidelines.”