This article is part of a series — At 250, Who Will America Be? — reporting on threats to American democracy as we approach the nation’s Semiquincentennial, on July 4, 2026.
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As the 2024 national election on November 5 takes shape, political pros of all stripes see New York’s congressional delegation as the key to flipping the House of Representatives to the Democrats.
With millions of members nationwide, the progressive grassroots organization MoveOn is mounting an ambitious two-phase campaign to get out the vote. “The effort will continue following Democrats’ huge flip in NY-3 and forge forth until the November 5 national general election,” MoveOn press secretary Britt Jacovich tells the Voice, referring to the ouster of the scandal-plagued Republican George Santos by Democrat Tom Suozzi in a special election this past February.
Here’s the layout of the political jigsaw puzzle in New York state that could turn the U.S. House over to Democrats: After losing one congressional seat by 89 residents in the 2020 Census, New York now has 26 House members consisting of 15 Democrats, 10 Republicans, and 1 vacancy to be filled by an April 30 special election winner.
The push began with Suozzi winning the February 13 special election in NY District 3 to replace the spectacular fabulist Santos, who was expelled by the House on December 1, 2023. A Long Island political fixture, Suozzi relinquished the NY District 3 seat in 2022 when he unsuccessfully mounted a primary challenge to Governor Kathy Hochul; Santos, a relative unknown who escaped close media scrutiny, won in a district that had toggled between parties in the 2000s. Suozzi must run again in November to hold his special election seat, which he won in large part because of voters’ displeasure with Santos. “We didn’t have to add much to what our volunteer members were already doing on their own in support of Suozzi’s campaign,” MoveOn’s field director, Amanda DeStefano, explains.
The next piece of the puzzle arrives in the April 30 special election for the NY-26 congressional seat. This district includes parts of Erie and Niagara counties and the cities of Buffalo and Niagara Falls. Democrat Brian Higgins had represented the district since 2005 before his February resignation, due in part to his frustration with a legislative body in which “it’s everyone demonizing one another,” as he told the Buffalo News. With Higgins’s departure, Erie County Democrats have tapped New York state senator Tim Kennedy as their designated candidate for the special election. He has held the 63rd state legislative seat since 2011.
MoveOn hopes “to successfully make the case to voters that these Republicans are failing to address their constituents’ real needs, and flip these seats to the Democrat side of the aisle.”
“With so many crucial seats in the House up for grabs and such narrow margins, we have to be strategic about where we invest our resources. This is a relatively safe seat, so we’re not putting a lot of our energy into that race at this time. We think it’s solid blue,” Jacovich tells the Voice.
West Seneca supervisor Gary Dickson is the endorsed candidate of Buffalo area Republicans for the special election. Should Kennedy prevail on April 30, and again on November 5 — as must Suozzi — that will leave 24 other seats on the ballot. If Democrats hold and then flip enough of those seats, that could position New York to give the U.S. House a Democrat majority. With Suozzi’s pick up of the seat, House membership stands at 218 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and four vacancies, further narrowing the GOP edge.
Adding more unknowns to the political jigsaw puzzle in the House is the coming departure of GOP stalwart Mike Gallagher, of Wisconsin, meaning four out of five of the vacancies were held by Republicans. Even so, Newsweek reports, “all these races are expected to go back to a Republican candidate.” Those races play out in Colorado for the seat Buck is resigning on April 19; in California, where a special election in May will replace former house speaker Kevin McCarthy, who resigned late last year after being deposed by his party’s most radically right members; and in Ohio, where voters will select a replacement for Representative Bill Johnson.
That said, MoveOn is looking at districts in New York held by the GOP but — in their current configuration after redistricting — had cast more votes for Biden than Trump in 2020. “Right now we’re targeting [New York] Districts 4, 17, 22, 19,” Jacovich says, adding that the organization hopes “to successfully make the case to voters that these Republicans are failing to address their constituents’ real needs, and flip these seats to the Democrat side of the aisle.”
Regarding the NY District 3 race, in which Suozzi replaced Santos, Jacovich says, “In that race, and in general, we see a trend indicating that voters favor local issues and protecting abortion rights, not MAGA-led political distractions or congressional gridlock. Voters want their elected officials to actually govern, and that’s what Democrats will do.” Against this political backdrop, field director DeStefano is poised to begin a two-phase effort. Phase one begins in early May, and is intended to persuade Democrats to turn out. “We will start by focusing on ‘surge voters,’ who we’ve identified as voters who support Democrats but may need an extra nudge to come out and vote,” DeStefano explains, adding that such voters “did not vote frequently before 2016 but have voted in at least one election since. We need to listen to voters’ concerns and bring them out for the upcoming election cycle.” She describes this effort as “a data-driven persuasion campaign with the goal of contacting potential voters across channels that will include phone calls, postcards, digital ads, and door knocking.”
The second phase, which begins in September, is a get-out-the-vote effort, encouraging volunteers to contact people in their own networks and provide information on how to vote. New York volunteers will focus on the crucial 4, 17, 19, and 22 districts. “We’ve found tremendous energy and enthusiasm for the ‘persuasion’ phase of the effort thus far,” says DeStefano.
Discussing the April 30 special election upstate, Jeremy Zellner, Erie County Democratic Committee chair, says, “We’re feeling good but definitely not taking anything for granted. Even though the 26th is a Democrat district, we’re not overlooking anything.”
Neither is State Senator Kennedy, who began early with TV ads, multiple mailings, attention to absentee voters, and phone banks. “We’re also knocking on doors, as all of this activity converges at the same time,” explains Zellner.
Regarding the mood of the electorate right now, Zellner says, “It’s simple. People want results from elected officials in the form of providing resources to local communities … Voters do not want candidates who hold extreme views on either the left or the right.” ❖
Frank Pizzoli is a journalist who has been covering politics, queer issues, healthcare, and literary celebrities for the past 25 years.
R.C. Baker
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