This analysis is by Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Market Structure Analyst Jamie Douglas Coutts. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal.
With debt levels at extremes and monetary debasement unlikely to slow in coming years, investors may start to view Bitcoin as a suitable portfolio asset — most likely at the expense of a small portion of fixed-income allocations.
Debasement undercutting asset returns
The problem with measuring nominal returns of assets is that it obfuscates debasement by monetary inflation. In a fiat system, the monetary base via private credit and central-bank balance sheets must continually expand to ensure the nominal value of collateral backing debt in the system also rises. Sustained periods of nominal price declines (deflation) would ultimately collapse the entire system.
By denominating returns in a representative measure of money supply, such as M2/M3 or central-bank balance sheets, one can get a true sense of whether assets have long-term store-of-value properties in the face of debasement. In the relatively short period since 2018, Bitcoin and US technology stocks have been the only assets serving as effective hedges against massive increases in the monetary base.
Bonds far underperform US M2
Our analysis of asset returns denominated in US money supply (M2) may be unsettling, especially for fixed-income investors. Over the decades, global bonds have ranked last in asset tables, failing to keep up with debasement. As real yields turned structurally negative in the last decade, global bonds returned minus 53% vs. US M2. Given that fixed income is estimated to be worth $300 trillion globally, according to the World Economic Forum, making it the largest asset class, these returns should be alarming.
Also disconcerting is the degree to which global equities and an asset custom-built for debasement, gold, have underperformed. Exploration of the causes requires deeper analysis but suffice to say that only US equities have offered protection over the long term. That was until the arrival of Bitcoin, we argue.
Bitcoin zeroes in on $300 trillion debt market
Bonds will likely be the biggest loser in a future where portfolio allocators begin seriously considering Bitcoin’s inclusion in diversified portfolios. The digital asset’s portfolio-enhancing qualities, disinflationary supply and growing network adoption could see it capture a meaningful portion of the value of the fixed-income asset class as debt and debasement risks increase.
With total global debt now more than 2.5x GDP and extreme indebtedness at every economic level, it’s difficult to see a scenario in which central banks aren’t forced to reliquefy the system further (through steps such as US bank bailouts) if impairment of collateral worsens. Recent actions by BRICS countries could heighten debasement risks if demand for US Treasuries, the global reserve asset, falls and prompts increased monetization by the Fed.
Replacing 1% of portfolio with Bitcoin
We can see a scenario in coming years where Bitcoin begins to infiltrate global portfolios at the expense of bonds. History shows a small allocation would have helped a diversified portfolio across all return and risk-adjusted return measures.
We ran simulations for the traditional 60/40 portfolio (US equities and bonds) as a benchmark, comparing it to our own 60/39/1 portfolio which included 1% of Bitcoin at the expense of bonds. This shows an excess return of 10.58% (1.32% annualized) over the backtest period (2015-2022). Most notable is the increase in risk-adjusted returns: the Sharpe ratio improves from 0.604 to 0.664 while the maximum drawdown hardly changes. Although an improvement, the 60/39/1 portfolio still underperformed the level of M2 debasement over the period by 4%.
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