At The Hive’s 2024 NBA Big Board, vol. 2: post-NCAA withdrawal deadline update – At The Hive

Just under a month out from the 2024 NBA Draft, it’s time for another big board update.

Pre-draft workout season has officially commenced. Teams across the league have been bringing in prospects for an up-close look for quite some time, and that will continue right up until the June 26 and 27 draft dates (side note; I’m so excited for the two-day draft. Give me all the fanfare and pomp and circumstance of the NFL Draft. Hopefully it fixes the hat issue for second-rounders, too).

In years past, the Hornets public relations/social media departments would post a Tweet near-daily listing the draft workout participants, often including players in contention for top picks in the draft — I can say for certain that will not be the case with Charlotte any longer. No more draft workout news for us. New regime, new way of doing things. Frankly, it makes no difference. Draft workouts are largely a means of gathering information on players that won’t be on the team going forward. It’s all about intel, and those workout posts only serve to spark conversation among fans and media rather than benefit the front office.

There’s only one more key date ahead of the big night; the international withdrawal deadline is June 16, which is the withdrawal date for players that wish to play internationally next season. The deadline for retaining college eligibility passed yesterday, shrinking the draft pool considerably. Quite a few players took a sizable jump as a result of two players in my top-30 (Xaivian Lee and Hunter Sallis) and six in my top-60 (Alex Karaban, Garwey Dual, Mark Sears, Baba Miller) opted to return to school.

For the second update of the big board, we’re expanding from a top-60 to a top-100. After the withdrawal deadline exodus, there are five players that didn’t make the cut for the top-100 with others in the “need to watch more” section of my notes, most notably: David Jones, Tristan Enaruna, Isaac Jones, Jaylen Wells and Vonterius Woolbright, along with a few international prospects in Ariel Hukporti, Yongxi Cui and Mantas Rubštavičius. For the next update, I’ll have all of those players, plus a few others on my board and will expand to what will be a top-120(ish) by then.

As usual, the update will be accompanied by some notes. First we’ll take a look at the biggest risers, then discuss why some prospects have fallen.

Risers

Isaiah Collier (#6 on the big board): I’ve gone up and down on Collier — he started the year in my top-3, then fell to the late-lottery during the season. Upon extensive USC film review, my opinion of him swung back to the positive end of the spectrum. A strong, powerful lead guard with positional size, court vision, and a reasonable shooting projection is hard to pass on for me philosophically. If Ja Morant, RJ Barrett, Scoot Henderson, Amen Thompson or other explosive guards with subpar shooting percentages were high on my board, how can Collier not be the same, especially in a weaker class? He shouldn’t be a target for the Hornets pick with LaMelo Ball in place, but any lottery team that needs a point guard should strongly consider Collier.

Pacôme Dadiet (#19): A new addition to my board — I really like Dadiet. I haven’t seen many people with him in the first round, but I’ve got him at 19. For what he lacks in two-way versatility, he makes up for with potential marquee skills; shooting, cutting, and secondary P&R creation, which comprise a valuable skillset if it translates. He’s 6-foot-8, athletic in the open court and in traffic, and put up solid efficiency numbers in Germany’s BBL as an 18-year-old; 36.6% 3P overall, 38.6% off the catch, 39.2% guarded and 38% unguarded, 31.3% off the dribble (32 3PA) and an impressive 73.3% at the rim per Synergy. There’s not much in the way of stock production or playmaking beyond late-shot clock or empty side ball screens, but I’d feel totally comfortable betting on his age and playmaking progression in the back-half of the first round. If Dadiet falls into the second round on draft night, I’ll be clamoring for Charlotte to move up and grab him.

Izan Almansa (#35): After rewatching some G League Ignite games, Almansa rose considerably. It’s easy to see what his NBA role could be — a rim-rolling big that can finish with touch and make plays out of the short roll, punishes mismatches in the post, and use his frame to carve out space on the interior. He kind of reminds me of a young Daniel Theis but with more playmaking upside, opposed to Theis’ floor-spacing. While he’s not a traditional rim protector, not a shooter and not a ball-handler, Almansa would look better on a team with higher quality guard play than Ignite had last season.

Jaylon Tyson (#30): The draft community seems divided when it comes to Tyson. I’ve seen him in the lottery, I’ve seen him in the late-first, and even well into the second round. I’ve got him at 30 after having him in the mid-40s last go-round. I’m unsure his high usage and efficiency combo translates to the NBA as a leading scorer, and I think he favors the mid-range and post areas too much for a role-playing wing scorer. He’s a very productive rebounder and plays sound defense for his position — I’d just bet on other players scaling down from a 30.1% usage rate more effectively than Tyson.

Zach Edey (#23): Unquestionably the best player in men’s college basketball over the last two seasons. A mountain of a man at 7-foot-5 and 299 pounds. Edey may end up being a matchup-dependent big that makes a sporadic impact depending on the situation or opponent, but there is no shot he outright fails as an NBA player. He’s simply too big of a person, and will be making too big of an impact even in a limited role. I can’t get behind top-20 or lottery buzz for a non-shooting big that doesn’t handle the ball or defend outside the paint, but I’ll be damned if I “miss” on a player as obviously good at basketball as Edey.

I’d like to emphasize this before we move on; outside of the top-two, there is strikingly little separation between my top-18 prospects. Yes, top eighteen. Honestly, this class isn’t “bad” so much as it’s evenly spread with talent — that’s makes it difficult for teams at the top of the draft to decipher whose upside to bet on, but for teams later in the lottery, there’s a chance to return real value if the right pick is made. Falling from three to eight doesn’t indicate a significant change in opinion as it would in years past; more so, players have gained slight statistical, archetypical or philosophical edges over one another. Now, on to the fallers.

Fallers

Matas Buzelis (#7): The main reason I wrote the above paragraph is to explain Buzelis’ drop. Previously my third-ranked prospect, I’ve got him at seven now, and not because I think much less of Buzelis (though I’ve soured on his ball-handling and passing even more). It’s just that advantage-creating wing with defensive versatility (Ron Holland), downhill scoring/playmaking guard with pull-up shooting chops (Collier), a two-way impact slasher (Stephon Castle) and a monstrous rim protector (Donovan Clingan) are more valuable archetypes near/at their peak upside than a floor-spacing four with help defense instincts and post moves. It’s really that simple. Dropping four spots seems harsh, but it’s akin to dropping two spots in a typical draft year.

Cody Williams (#12): Unlike Buzelis, I’ve actually changed my opinion on Williams pretty drastically — he just falls into the background of Colorado’s offense too often, and is too theoretical in comparison to others in the class. Zaccharie Risacher is penalized for a lack of assertiveness, which means Williams must be as well. Granted, Williams was injured multiple times and played for an NCAA Tournament team led by three older players. It’s difficult to toe the line of aggressiveness in that environment, on top of the injuries hampering his physical abilities. There’s a long, fluid wing with a jack-of-all-trades skillset buried within Williams, but it’s going to take a bit to unearth. That type of project just has to be a late-lottery selection even though his ceiling is higher than some players above him.

Ja’Kobe Walter (#25): I was never too high on Walter. He’s just not my type of prospect — an undersized wing with athletic flashes that lacks strength and power, is a good-but-not great shooter with little pull-up gravity, and has almost zero feel for the game as a playmaker whether offensively or in generating stocks on defense. He’s only a threat to score when attacking a closeout or tilted defense — he’s not a true shot creator, and not the “bucket-getter” some undersized wings are in the NBA to outweigh playmaking or defensive shortcomings. Streaky, hit-or-miss player in terms of impact. That’s not my cup of tea, but obviously there are some tools in place for Walter to succeed at the next level.

Kyle Filipowski (#32): This is another philosophical move. In general, I don’t like centers whose best trait is their feel for the game. The bar to clear for being a “passing hub” big man that initiates or is a critical cog in the offense is extremely high, and I don’t think Filipowski has the live-dribble playmaking, quick processing or decision-making consistency required to play that role. To boot, he’s never shot the ball efficiently at any level, shot under 56% from inside the arc despite being a 7-footer, and while he is a decent rim protector and post defender, he has a negative wingspan and doesn’t project as a switchable big. Not scheme versatile and doesn’t have a standout skill at the next level. I’ll pass.

Bobi Klintman (#75): I went back to watch Cairns Taipans because Taran Armstrong played well at the G League Elite Camp. Boy, did that ruin my opinion of Klintman. As a 21-year-old, he struggled to make a consistent impact offensively and has morphed into an on-ball wing defender after we saw a mobile, versatile forward at Wake Forest. With that in mind, he shot 33% from deep this year and he had 24 assists in 26 games. There just hasn’t been much development since he left the NCAA for the NBL. Klintman would be a low-priority Two-Way candidate for me.

Alright, that’ll do it for the notepad this time around. Let me know in the comments if there are prospects we haven’t gotten to yet that we should discuss in the next update, which will come next week. We’ve also got more scouting reports coming after Jon kicked it off with a great Stephon Castle profile — let us know who else should be featured for those, too.

At The Hive’s Top-100 Big Board