Another Trumpless Debate Is Another Exercise in Futility

The GOP shit show will go on Wednesday night—but once again without its biggest star. And while the second Republican debate is, in theory, an opportunity for seven of Donald Trump’s competitors to audition for his lead role, it’s not clear whether enough people are tuning in for any of this to matter. “Sans Trump…these debates just aren’t big-time TV, because the GOP primary race has become a snoozer,” as an ad buyer told Semafor’s Max Tani, who reported Wednesday that Fox News cut its rate for a 30-second spot by more than half from the first debate to the second, which will be hosted by Fox Business Network and Univision.

The rate cut is, of course, understandable: That first go-around in Milwaukee last month—which Trump also skipped in favor of a fawning interview with Tucker Carlson—did little to alter the landscape of the 2024 race, as my colleague Charlotte Klein noted. None of the candidates made a dent in the former president’s formidable lead; few even tried to mount a serious attack on him; and the night ended without much clarity on who in this bunch will become the top pick for the GOP’s anti-Trump wing. We shouldn’t expect Wednesday night’s showdown at the Reagan Library in California to be any different.

“I just don’t see a path for anybody that’s not Donald Trump right now,” as Senator Kevin Cramer—who is supporting North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum’s longshot bid for the party nod— conceded to the Washington Post this week.

But Trump’s opponents are still holding out hope: Ron DeSantis, his next closest competitor who has been plummeting in the polls, is looking to reestablish himself as a serious contender; Mike Pence, his former vice president, is trying to get out of his old boss’s shadow; Chris Christie will attempt to keep his fantasy of restoring the pre-Trump GOP alive; Nikki Haley will look to build off her comparatively strong first debate performance; and Vivek Ramaswamy will once again try to steamroll the rest of the field. (Burgum and Tim Scott, meanwhile, will surely be content to make any impression at all.)

But they have a lot of ground to make up against Trump—and they’re running out of time to do so. “This debate, it’ll be interesting to see whether or not folks realize that the sand is going through the hourglass pretty quickly right now,” Republican strategist Kevin Madden, who worked on Mitt Romney’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns, told the Associated Press.

Perhaps they’ll feel that sense of urgency and actually find the courage to go after the former president—something most of them were reluctant to do last time around, in fear of running afoul of his base. But without Trump there himself, will anyone be watching to notice?