Projecting the Charlotte Hornets rotation – At The Hive

It’s the middle of the offseason doldrums. There’s almost nothing to talk about. There were a few Hornets at the Olympics. Vasilije Micic won a bronze medal with Serbia after almost beating the USA in the semifinal. Former Hornet Nicolas Batum won a silver. Other than that, there’s not really much of anything going on.

So in a desperate attempt to generate content, we’ll take a stab at projecting the Charlotte Hornets rotation this coming season. There are a lot of interesting positional battles to monitor and some log jams at spots. First, let’s categorize the players:

Guards: LaMelo Ball, Tre Mann, Vasilije Micic, Seth Curry, Nick Smith Jr.

Wings: Brandon Miller, Cody Martin, Josh Green

Forwards: Miles Bridges, Grant Williams, Tidjane Salaün

Bigs: Mark Williams, Nick Richards, Taj Gibson

Typically a lineup will have one player from each grouping and then two of either guards, wings, or forwards.

To me, there are four locks for starters, one from each of the position groups I mentioned above. They are LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, and Mark Williams. That gives the Hornets a lot of options for their fifth starter. A large chunk of the roster are similar caliber players, so tabbing the fifth starter is going to be more a matter of fit than ability. For me, the player that makes the most since here is Josh Green. He’s familiar with a 3&D role and has been a good spot up shooter his last two seasons in Dallas. That and his size make him an easy fit in between LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller in a lineup that features three potential shot creators already. So the starting five looks like this:

PG: LaMelo Ball
SG: Josh Green
SF: Brandon Miller
PF: Miles Bridges
C: Mark Williams

I expect the Hornets to use a nine man rotation most nights. That’s the norm for NBA teams and what the Celtics did most nights with Charles Lee as an assistant on the bench. That said, the four bench players the Celtics used varied a little bit from night to night, and that may be the case for the Hornets too given the decent depth they have for once. Nick Richards and Grant Williams are locks to be in the rotation just about every night. Two of Cody Martin, Tre Mann, and Vasilije Micic will be as well. Mann is the best of that bunch for me. Salaün, Curry, and NSJ will get some spot minutes on certain nights and in the case of injuries or foul trouble. Gibson will probably only play if absolutely necessary.

So now we get to shaking out the minutes. Here’s a rough outline of what a typical minutes distribution would look like.

PG: LaMelo Ball 32, Tre Mann 16
SG: Josh Green 26, Cody Martin 12, Tre Mann 10
SF: Brandon Miller 36, Miles Bridges 12
PF: Miles Bridges 24, Grant Williams 24
C: Mark Williams 28, Nick Richards 20

Total minutes:
Miller: 36
Bridges: 36
Ball: 32
M. Williams: 28
Green: 26
Mann: 26
G. Williams: 24
Richards: 20
Martin: 12

Mark Williams and Nick Richards are the easiest to divvy up. Williams will get as many minutes as the team feels comfortable giving him while Nick Richards will absorb most of the backup minutes. Grant Williams will play small five in certain matchups and siphon off some of Richards’ minutes in those situations.

I opted to give Martin the nod over Micic, but I’m not super confident in it. Martin needs to shoot the ball better and, more importantly, stay healthy. If he’s struggling to crack 30% from three again, he could very easily lose out on minutes to Micic. But if he can be a passable outside shooter, he gives the Hornets better size and defense than Micic does. That configuration also puts Tre Mann at the point of attack on defense, where he had some very good moments last season. If Micic gets the nod over Martin, Mann will simply get all of his minutes at the two.

The bench group of Mann, Martin, G. Williams, and Richards is pretty devoid of consistent scoring, but they should have one of Ball, Miller, or Bridges on the floor with that group at all times. All of them play smart enough basketball that they should be able to succeed with just one attention grabbing offensive player on the floor with them.

Ideally LaMelo Ball will be able to play more than 32 minutes a night, but it’s probably wise to take it a little easy on his minutes until he proves he can stay healthy. Bridges and Miller proved they could handle a large workload last season and should be leaned on to do the same this season.

Notably absent from my projected and 100% accurate rotation is rookie Tidjane Salaün. He looked raw in the summer league, and I don’t think there’s any player in the above rotation that you can justify taking minutes from to give to him. He’ll start the season as roughly the 11th guy (behind Micic or Martin) and will be the first forward to get the call if one of Bridges or Williams can’t go. Hopefully he’s good enough to force the coaches to play him eventually, but I wouldn’t expect that to happen until the later parts of the season at the earliest.

So what did I get wrong? How little do I know ball? Let’s talk about it.