Top-6 2024 NBA mock draft: how the board might fall for Charlotte – At The Hive

The first At The Hive mock of the 2024 draft cycle is here.

For the opener, we’ll limit it to the top-six and go a bit more in-depth on the selections. The next mock will be the full lottery, then a first-round mock before the full-draft masterpiece drops just ahead of the draft.

In a way, the Charlotte Hornets had a weight lifted off the franchise’s shoulders on lottery day last weekend; in effect, the decision on which prospect to take is being made for them. Despite the narrative of this being some god-awful draft class with a bunch of nobodies in the pool, there are some strong prospects in the lottery range. While the top-five gets the first crack at it, the Hornets (and the player they select) are relieved of the pressure that will inevitably come with drafting highly in a class perceived as being quite poor.

No trades, no dramatic reaches, and the top-five picks are being made with my personal opinion in the back seat as I attempt to put on the general manager’s hat. For Charlotte’s pick, I opted with what I think is the best combination of fit and upside.

1. Atlanta Hawks – Alex Sarr, C, Perth Wildcats (France)

Few teams at the back end of the lottery stood to benefit from a miraculous leap to number one as much as the Atlanta Hawks. Lucky them. Mired in mediocrity since an Eastern Conference Finals run in 2020-21, Atlanta boasts a win-loss total of 120-126 over the last three seasons. Now, the Hawks have multiple avenues for immediate improvement, or a strong starting point for a rebuild depending on how favorably ownership and the front office view the current situation.

I think Alex Sarr will be the choice at #1 whether the Hawks choose to deal the #1 pick, or offload the likes of Clint Capela and De’Andre Hunter, and possibly Dejounte Murray or Trae Young. Sarr just turned 19 years old last month, already stands at an even seven feet tall in shoes, and has flashed the mobility and shooting touch that indicates an extremely high ceiling as a two-way center. Couple that with defensive acumen, range and versatility, and he’s already an above-average frontcourt defender in the NBA.

To me, he’s an easy pick at first overall in this class. If I were Atlanta, I’d be looking to pair Sarr with Young, Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu going forward and ship out Murray, Capela, Hunter, etc.

2. Washington Wizards – Nikola Topić, PG, Crvena zvezda (Serbia)

Washington can go in any direction here. They need young, high-upside talent at every position and have exactly zero players penciled in as building blocks for whatever the next iteration of the Wizards looks like. Kyle Kuzma is good, and Jordan Poole can be good. But to me, they’re the type of players rebuilding teams should trade away rather than keep around for the long haul. With that in mind, the Wizards drafted Bilal Coulibaly in the top-10 last year and he projects as a rangy defensive wing. Why not make the second addition to the new core an offensive-minded guard?

Nikola Topić adds a playmaking and downhill finishing dynamic to the Wizards roster, giving Coulibaly, Corey Kispert and other off-ball players a better chance to flourish. I’m higher on his defense than consensus — he’s shown enough flashes of high motor and playmaking instincts as an 18-year-old in the EuroLeague for me. Factor in the difficulty of his shot profile, which features heavy diet of pull-ups (75th percentile in pull-up jumper possessions per Synergy), and there’s plenty of reason to project him as a 6-foot-6 point guard that can shoot off the dribble with range, get to the rim and finish, and defend his position. Not a bad get for Washington.

3. Houston Rockets – Donovan Clingan, C, Connecticut

The Rockets are an interesting case. They’ve got talent across the positional spectrum and it nearly led them to the Play-In Tournament in a competitive Western Conference last season, which likely locks their starting lineup into place for next season barring a trade. No matter which player Houston picks at three, they almost certainly won’t be starting next year, and might not even be one of the first players off the bench.

One of the exceptions to that would be Donovan Clingan. The massive 20-year-old center measured a hair under 7-foot-2 without shoes and weighed in at 282 pounds at the NBA Combine, and has flashed mobility and passing skill uncommon in players of his stature. Houston would give Alperen Şengün a reliable backup that can slide into a starting role as needed, and it would keep Clingan from being overexerted as he adjusts to the pace and workload of the NBA early in his career. If the Rockets don’t take Clingan, a slight fall to the back-half of the top-10 could be a possibility given the needs of the teams below.

4. San Antonio Spurs – Rob Dillingham, PG, Kentucky

It’s a no-brainer for the Spurs to go with a point guard at four to me. Victor Wembanyama can play the four and the five in his prime, rendering his frontcourt partner marginally less important than a competent lead guard that can get him the ball in advantageous situations. Enter: Rob Dillingham.

The defensive concerns surrounding the 6-foot-1 (without shoes) Dillingham are largely mitigated by having what could become the best defensive player in NBA history lurking behind him. Wemby would erase the mistakes and inefficiencies of a short, skinny guard better than anyone, and Dillingham would maximize Wemby’s length and other-worldly finishing with his vision and creative passing. An argument could be made that Dillingham is the best shooter in the class — not many prospects match the volume, efficiency and difficulty of Dillingham’s shot profile. That’s a great pick-and-roll partner for the best young player the NBA’s seen since LeBron James.

5. Detroit Pistons – Zaccharie Risacher, W, JL Bourg (France)

Like the Wizards, the Pistons could use an injection of young talent anywhere on the depth chart. Apart from Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson, I’m not sure there’s a player on the roster that’s a lock to return next season. What that core group of three talented young players sorely lacks is floor-spacing. Granted, it’ll take much more than this top-five pick to alleviate that problem, but Zaccharie Risacher could help from the get-go.

On top of the fit, this is one of the few situations where Risacher could start opening night and receive heavy minutes to acclimate to the physicality of the NBA. Despite having already played two years in a pro league, the 19-year-old is very skinny, lacks assertiveness and creativity as a ball-handler, and tends to go through prolonged shooting slumps. It’ll be hard for him to dig out of those slumps and establish confidence in a bench role — big minutes from day one alongside a savvy, manipulative passer like Cunningham would be great for Risacher’s development.

6. Charlotte Hornets – Ron Holland II, W, G League Ignite

I don’t know if this is the best-case scenario for Charlotte with Clingan and Risacher off the board, but in the (highly unlikely) event the draft falls this way next month, Jeff Peterson and the new Hornets front office have plenty of good options at six.

My personal preferences for this pick aren’t really individual players (unless Sarr takes an all-time tumble), more so player archetypes. Ideally, Charlotte takes a wing with size, a shooting projection and switchable defense — something every single team in the NBA covets — or a defensive-minded guard that can defend the point of attack. Ron Holland II, Stephon Castle, Cody Williams, Reed Sheppard, Devin Carter and others could easily fit the bill depending on which draft analyst you ask. For me, Holland gives the Hornets the best chance to maximize the value of the sixth pick in the draft, while possessing a palatable floor if his potential is never realized.

Holland is an athletic, energetic slasher that utilizes length and burst on both ends of the floor. Slashing and finishing at the rim with explosiveness is a plus at the NBA level from the outset of his career, and while his defensive feel and awareness remain rough around the edges, he still tied Matas Buzelis for a team-leading 97 stocks, has flashed panic-inducing energy as an on-ball defender and rebounds well for his position. It won’t be consistent, but perimeter defense and ability to guard screens and handoffs could be relied upon in the sense that it’ll get him on the floor, and the athletic scoring will keep him there.

The only hiccup is that Holland, as it stands, does not check the box as a shooter — and it’s a major hiccup. While he finishes inside at a high clip (59% at rim on 271 attempts, 77th percentile for rim frequency per Synergy as an 18-year-old in a pro league), the jump shot and overall poise and mentality as a a scorer from outside 10 feet needs to make a leap to even approach an All-Star caliber ceiling. Dating back to his AAU and high school days, he shot 30% from deep in 80 total games, and made a mere 25% of his threes with Ignite.

At this point, there’s a large sample size of poor shooting from beyond the arc — but he does have volume and he shoots with confidence, which can be the most important factors when it comes to shooting development and trajectory. The mechanics aren’t the best, particularly his foot placement; Holland’s jumper has a narrow base, and he’s prone to bad misses that could happen as a result of poor balance. Overall, there’s a lot of work to be done on his jumper. To his defense, that can be said about a few players near the top of this class, and none of them match Holland’s frame, explosiveness and defensive ceiling.

While Holland is certainly not a home-run pick, I also don’t think there truly is a player that checks all the boxes for Charlotte. Not for nothing, falling from three to six does make it easier to stomach a low-value selection here (a flat-out miss would really hurt, though). Depending on how the board falls for the Hornets, I wouldn’t even mind a “reach” for Devin Carter to ensure the Hornets grab a rotation-caliber player from this class. There are five or six players that would qualify as a “fine” pick. This thing could go in any direction come June 26. That’s before we even consider the possibility of a trade.