Gabriel Martinelli of Arsenal celebrates with teammates after scoring their team’s first goal during … [+]
Arsenal are top of the Premier League at Christmas.
Although the World Cup break means far fewer games would’ve been played by that point than in other seasons, being top at Christmas is often seen as a good omen for a team’s title chances.
However, fourteen teams have failed to win the Premier League since 1992 after being top at Christmas, including Arsenal in 2002 and 2007.
This season though, Arsenal go into the World Cup break with a five-point lead over Manchester City in second place.
And while that break could hurt Arsenal’s momentum, the World Cup itself could hurt Manchester City.
With most of the World Cup squads already announced, Manchester City have the most call-ups of any side in the Premier League.
Phil Foden and Jack Grealish are among the five Manchester City players called up by England for the … [+]
Sixteen players from Manchester City have been called up for the 2022 Qatar World Cup, compared to just ten from Arsenal.
Predicting who will win the World Cup is no easy task, but City’s players generally play for countries that are likely to go far in the tournament.
Based on OPTA’s odds of winning the World Cup, Manchester City have 15 players who play for countries with a more than 5% chance of winning the tournament, including five players from England and three from Portugal.
All these call-ups might have already affected Manchester City, with some pundits suggesting that City’s players had their minds on Qatar during their loss to Brentford at the weekend.
Arsenal on the other hand have just six players from teams with a more than 5% chance of winning the World Cup, including Gabriel Jesus and Gabriel Martinelli from favorites Brazil.
They also have one player from a team with between 1% and 5% chance of winning (Switzerland’s Granit Xhaka), and three players from teams with a less than 1% chance of winning.
This means Arsenal’s players are less likely to be fatigued when the Premier League returns after Christmas, and that head coach Mikel Arteta will have more first team players to work with during Arsenal’s training camp in Dubai.
Manchester United’s team is in a similar situation as their cross-city rivals. United have 14 players at the World Cup, including twelve from teams likely to go far in the tournament.
Newcastle United on the other hand have just five players at the World Cup. Eddie Howe’s side have got off to a great start this season, but often sides outside the so-called “Big Six” have less squad depth and start to fall away later in the campaign as fatigue and injuries take their toll. The World Cup break could give Newcastle United a chance to refresh themselves so that they don’t suffer as badly from fatigue as the season goes on.
Liverpool also have relatively few players at the World Cup. Their seven call-ups are the fewest of any of the “big-six” sides. Having so few players at the World Cup could help Jurgen Klopp turn his side’s fortunes around in the second half of the season.
Every team in the Premier League has at least two players at Qatar 2022, but for many sides, this World Cup will provide a much-needed chance to recover from a tight Premier League schedule, so that they are ready to go again at the end of December.
Steve Price, Senior Contributor
Source link
