Topline
Libertarian Marc Victor dropped out of the Arizona Senate race Tuesday and endorsed Republican Blake Masters, in a move that could transfer Victor’s supporters to Masters before Election Day next week—delivering a small but possibly notable boost for Masters in an increasingly tight race against incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly.
CHANDLER, ARIZONA – AUGUST 02: Republican U.S. senatorial candidate Blake Masters speaks during his … [+]
Key Facts
Victor said he is “very confident . . . Blake Masters is going to do everything he possibly can to further the interest of the live-and-let-live global peace movement,” he declared Tuesday in a 30-minute YouTube endorsement video featuring an interview with Masters.
Democratic groups helped fund Victor’s campaign in an apparent effort to draw votes from Masters: The Save Democracy PAC and the Defeat Republicans PAC gave $5,000 each, and tech billionaire Ron Conway and his family members gave Victor’s campaign more than $45,000, The New York Times reported.
Masters, whose candidacy is backed by a Trump-aligned PAC and tech billionaire Peter Thiel, has made a comeback in the polls against Kelly and now trails him by just three points, according to FiveThirtyEight, representing a more-than-seven-point gain since August.
Key Background
The Masters/Kelly race is one of several pivotal Senate contests that have swung toward Republicans in recent weeks, threatening Democrats’ chances of maintaining control of the upper chamber. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report adjusted its forecast on the race back to a toss-up last week, a month after shifting the race from toss-up to lean Democrat. Republicans need to net just one seat to shift the balance of power in the Senate in their favor, and as of Tuesday, their chances at doing so are about 50/50, according to FiveThirtyEight. That’s a significant change from September predictions that showed Republicans had a 29% chance at winning the majority. Voters’ concerns about the economy and crime–key talking points for Republican candidates–are major drivers behind the shifting Senate forecasts. In a Times/Siena poll published Monday, economic issues were the top concern for the largest share of the 604 likely Arizona voters surveyed (margin of error 4.4 points). And while Kelly led Masters by six points in the poll, more voters said they preferred Republicans control the Senate (49%), compared to Democrats (42%).
Big Number
$2.89 million. That’s the amount of money the Trump-backed MAGA Inc. PAC spent between October 6 and October 27 on ads for Masters’ campaign.
Tangent
Indicating trepidation about the upcoming midterms, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Kelly campaign placed their first coordinated ad buy in the race on Monday, purchasing $191,000 in broadcast spots that began airing Wednesday, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact Politics.
Further Reading
Trump-Linked Super PAC Spends Millions In These Key Senate Races (Forbes)
How Senate Forecasts Have Moved Toward Republicans In The Final Stretch Before Election Day (Forbes)
Voters’ Economic Outlooks Are Bleak—And More Trust Republicans Than Democrats To Handle The Issue (Forbes)
Sara Dorn, Forbes Staff
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