Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Bleak 3 Months Ahead of Midterms

He won’t appear on the ballot, but in many ways November’s midterm elections will be all about President Donald Trump.

Around the country, candidates for the House and Senate will be seeking to run on or against Trump’s record in his second term in office. But given his recent poll numbers, the lowest of his second term, that strategy looks to be questionable in some places.

Overall, Trump’s approval rating sits at 36%, while 59% of the country disapproves of his job performance as president. Among all presidential approval polls, including AP-NORC, the American Research Group, and the Pew Research Center, a majority record overarching disapproval of Trump’s second term.

The state-by-state picture doesn’t look much more hopeful.

The numbers reflect a consistent pattern throughout Trump’s presidency – a stronghold in solidly Republican states and net negative ratings in Democratic states. However, some of the largest declines since January 2025 have occurred in Republican-leaning states that Trump will need in November to hold his party’s majority on Capitol Hill.

Trump remains weak in every major swing state. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and Ohio display net approval ratings – the polling score found by subtracting negative opinion from positive opinion – ranging from minus 11 to minus 22 percentage points.

The dismal data points were not always the norm. Most states showed positive or even numbers when Trump took office. Florida had the largest drop in net approval rankings across all swing states, at 21 points, shifting from plus 9 to minus 21. Ohio moved from plus 8 to minus 13, Nevada from zero to minus 21, and North Carolina fell from zero to minus 15.

“Being underwater by double digits in major battlegrounds means GOP incumbents can’t count on Trump to lift them across the finish line,” Brett Loyd, co-founder of the Independent Center says.

An Aug. 1 Civiqs poll shows that a majority of respondents nationwide disapprove of several of Trump’s critical second-term decisions. Roughly 57% percent of respondents oppose U.S. involvement in Iran, while 38% approved. Both the U.S. bombing Iran and the signing of the GOP’s “big, beautiful bill” recorded 54% disapproval, and 53% of the respondents disapproved of his imposition of tariffs.

Other recent surveys tell similar stories. In a Quinnipiac University poll, 60% of voters said they opposed military action against Iran. A CNN/SSRS poll found that 43% of Republicans and 75% percent of all Americans believe the war in Iran has not been worth the cost.

Yet, the White House is unfazed by the data. Trump released a statement on social media on June 24 addressing the polling.

“MY REAL POLL NUMBERS ARE THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE EVER BEEN. THANK YOU!!! President DJT.”

Although Trump has never won the majority of the popular vote across his three presidential campaigns, the MAGA base has bolstered Trump through periods of low popularity. Whether core support will be enough to float Republicans nationwide remains to be seen as voters head to vote in the midterm elections this November.