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Tag: REOP

  • U.S. may skirt recession in 2023, Europe not so lucky – Morgan Stanley

    U.S. may skirt recession in 2023, Europe not so lucky – Morgan Stanley

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    TOKYO, Nov 14 (Reuters) – Britain and the euro zone economies are likely to tip into recession next year, Morgan Stanley said, but the United States might make a narrow escape thanks to a resilient job market.

    At the same time, China’s expected reopening after almost three years of COVID-19 curbs is set to lead a recovery in its own economy and other emerging Asian markets, the investment bank’s analysts said in a series of reports published on Sunday.

    “Risks are to the downside,” the reports said, projecting the global economy to grow by 2.2% next year, lower than the International Monetary Fund’s latest 2.7% growth estimate. read more

    Next year, Morgan Stanley predicts a sharp split between developed economies “in or near recession” while emerging economies “recover modestly” but said an overall global pickup would likely remain elusive. China’s economy was predicted to grow 5% in 2023, outpacing the average 3.7% growth expected for emerging markets, while the average growth in the Group of 10 developed countries was forecast at just 0.3%.

    Central banks across the globe have raised interest rates this year to curb raging inflation, and in the United States, Morgan Stanley predicted the Federal Reserve to keep rates high in 2023 as inflation remains strong after peaking in the fourth quarter of this year.

    “The U.S. economy just skirts recession in 2023, but the landing doesn’t feel so soft as job growth slows meaningfully and the unemployment rate continues to rise,” the report said, predicting a 0.5% expansion next year.

    “The cumulative effect of tight policy in 2023 spills over into 2024, resulting in two very weak years,” the report added.

    Globally too, the peak in inflation should come in the current quarter, the analysts said, “with disinflation driving the narrative next year”.

    • U.S. core inflation to fall to 2.9% at end-2023, headline inflation to 1.9%
    • Asia growth to dip to 3.4% in 1H23 before recovering to 4.6% in 2H23, fuelled by domestic demand
    • Cross-asset returns – especially in fixed income – will look much better in 2023 than in 2022, driven by cheaper starting valuations
    • High-grade fixed income to outperform global equities
    • EM and Japan stocks to outperform, with U.S. shares lagging

    Reporting by Kevin Buckland, editing by Miral Fahmy

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • CIA boss talks nuclear weapons and prisoners with Putin’s spy chief

    CIA boss talks nuclear weapons and prisoners with Putin’s spy chief

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    • Burns to warn Russia’s spy chief not to use nuclear weapons
    • Burns also due to raise issue of U.S. prisoners
    • Kremlin confirm a U.S.-Russia meeting took place in Turkey

    LONDON/WASHINGTON, Nov 14 (Reuters) – U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns was expected to caution President Vladimir Putin’s spy chief at talks on Monday about the consequences of any use of nuclear weapons, and to raise the issue of U.S. prisoners in Russia, a White House official said.

    Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed to Russian news agencies that a U.S.-Russia meeting had taken place in the Turkish capital Ankara but declined to give details about the participants or the subjects discussed.

    The White House spokesperson, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Burns was meeting Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia’s SVR foreign intelligence service.

    It was the first known high-level, face-to-face U.S.-Russian contact since Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

    “He is not conducting negotiations of any kind. He is not discussing settlement of the war in Ukraine,” the spokesperson said.

    “He is conveying a message on the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, and the risks of escalation to strategic stability … He will also raise the cases of unjustly detained U.S. citizens.”

    Burns is a former U.S. ambassador to Russia who was sent to Moscow in late 2021 by President Joe Biden to caution Putin about the troop build-up around Ukraine.

    “We briefed Ukraine in advance on his trip. We firmly stick to our fundamental principle: nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” the spokesperson said.

    Putin has repeatedly said Russia will defend its territory with all available means, including nuclear weapons, if attacked. He says the West has engaged in nuclear blackmail against Russia.

    MANY OUTSTANDING ISSUES

    The remarks raised particular concern in the West after Moscow declared in September that it had annexed four Ukrainian regions that its forces partly control.

    The U.S.-Russian contact in Turkey was first reported by Russia’s Kommersant newspaper. The SVR did not respond to a request for comment.

    Beyond the war, Russia and the United States have a host of outstanding issues to discuss, ranging from the extension of a nuclear arms reduction treaty and a Black Sea grain deal to a possible prisoner swap and the Syrian civil war.

    U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres, asked at a summit of the Group of 20 (G20) leading economies in Indonesia about the meeting in Turkey, said the United Nations was not involved.

    Biden said this month he hoped Putin would be willing to discuss seriously a swap to secure the release of U.S. basketball star Brittney Griner, who has been sentenced to nine years in a Russian penal colony on drugs charges.

    Former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, who holds American, British, Canadian and Irish passports, was sentenced in 2020 to 16 years in a Russian jail after being convicted of spying, a charge he denied.

    Viktor Bout, a Russian arms dealer jailed in the United States, has been mentioned as a person who could be swapped for Griner and Whelan in any prisoner exchange.

    Reporting by Reuters; Additional reporting by Jonathan Spicer in Turkey; Editing by Gareth Jones

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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  • Dow posts record closing high, stocks gain for 3rd week; dollar dips

    Dow posts record closing high, stocks gain for 3rd week; dollar dips

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    • S&P 500, Nasdaq end session lower
    • Evergrande averts default with surprise interest payment
    • U.S. 10-year yields lower

    NEW YORK, Oct 22 (Reuters) – The Dow Jones industrial average registered a record closing high on Friday and major equity indexes posted a third straight week of gains while the U.S. dollar slipped.

    On the day, MSCI’s broadest gauge of global shares (.MIWD00000PUS) was flat, and the S&P 500 (.SPX) and Nasdaq (.IXIC) ended lower.

    Stocks came under pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank was “on track” to begin reducing its purchases of assets. read more

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    Intel’s stock (INTC.O)fell 11.7% and was among the biggest drags on the S&P 500. Late Thursday, Intel reported sales that missed expectations and pointed to shortages of chips holding back sales of its flagship processors. read more

    American Express Co’s stock (AXP.N) gained, boosting the Dow after the company beat profit estimates for the fourth straight quarter.

    Next week brings reports from several key mega-cap names including Amazon (AMZN.O). read more

    The dollar pared losses after Powell’s comments, but the dollar index was last down 0.10% at 93.64, and is off from a one-year high of 94.56 last week. read more

    “There’s a bit of a positioning unwind taking place. We’ve obviously seen a firmer dollar since the September” Fed meeting, said Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities in New York. “That also dovetails with the seasonal tendency for the dollar to soften into the end of the month.”

    Investors also digested news that China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) appeared to avert default with a source saying it made a last-minute bond coupon payment. read more

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 73.94 points, or 0.21%, to 35,677.02, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 4.88 points, or 0.11%, to 4,544.9 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 125.50 points, or 0.82%, to 15,090.20.

    The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.46% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe shed 0.03%.

    The MSCI index posted gains for a third straight week along with the three major U.S. stock indexes.

    In the U.S. bond market, yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasuries slid.

    The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 1.6 basis points to 1.659% after rising to a five-month high of 1.7064% late Thursday.

    Oil rose and ended up for the week, near multi-year highs. Brent crude futures rose 92 cents to settle at $85.53 a barrel, and registered its seventh weekly gain. U.S. crude futures gained $1.26, to settle at $83.76, and rose for a ninth straight week. read more

    Spot gold was up 0.6% at $1,793.82 per ounce.

    Among cryptocurrencies, bitcoin last fell 2.21% to $60,841.96.

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    Additional reporting by Simon Jessop in London, and Karen Brettell, Sinead Carew and Herbert Lash in New York and Kevin Buckland in Tokyo
    Editing by Hugh Lawson Mark Potter and David Gregorio

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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