The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, and it has been a slow start to the season, with only two named tropical storms so far: Arthur and Bertha. On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revised its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, lowering the total number of storms expected.
The forecast now calls for 7 to 13 named storms, down from 8 to 14. Of those named storms, 2 to 6 are expected to become hurricanes, down slightly from 3 to 6, and now 0 to 2 are expected to reach major hurricane strength (category 3 or higher).
This is below average due to El Niño. This forecast is similar to Colorado State University’s revised forecast.
2025’s Atlantic hurricane season had 13 total storms, with 5 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
NOAA’s updated outlook now predicts a 75% chance of a below-normal season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of an above-normal season.
Remember, predictions of the season’s activity are not predictions of exactly how many storms will make landfall in a particular place. Individual storms make impacts, regardless of how active (or not) a season is.
NOAA researchers cite a handful of different factors for this year’s forecast, including a confirmed El Niño.
“When El Nino emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity, and this El Nino continues to get stronger every month,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Weather Service.
The National Hurricane Center continues to urge advanced preparations for coastal communities before a storm hits. “Don’t let words like a below-average forecast change your preparation plans. It only takes one storm.”
And, “Inland rainfall is a major cause of damage from tropical storms and hurricanes, as Arthur demonstrated,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That’s why it’s important to prepare for every storm that’s projected to impact your area, even if it never reaches hurricane strength.”
Here is the list of names being used for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, last used in 2020. Leah is the only new name on the list after Laura was retired for causing extensive death and destruction in Louisiana in August 2020.
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Meteorologist Stacy Lynn
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