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Troy Renck: The Broncos offense was a chore to watch on Christmas. Like eating vegetables. While it is fair to suggest Denver is a year ahead of schedule in its return to excellence, the Broncos are here, so their flaws must be examined like cells under under a microscope. They can secure the No. 1 seed with a win over the Chargers on Sunday. But a lingering issue persists: Will Denver’s run game, led by rookie RJ Harvey, become the Broncos’ undoing?
Parker Gabriel: Not if you ask head coach Sean Payton. He made it clear Monday he thinks the main area that the Broncos must improve in to win a Super Bowl title is turnover margin. No mention of the run game whatsoever. And, hey, if you take the ball away two or three times per playoff game, you’re going to have more license to play the way you want to offensively. The way the Broncos have played offensively has changed some since J.K. Dobbins’ injury, though. Their pass rate has ticked up from 57.6% pre-injury to 62.7% post-injury. More concerning, Denver’s overall averages per game and per run have dropped from 133.6 and 4.9, respectively, to 100 and 3.8. It takes more than just the running back to have a good running game, of course, and the Broncos have dealt with offensive line and tight end injuries along with Dobbins, but given the way the front has sustained in pass protection and elsewhere and the way the numbers fall on clean lines around Dobbins’, this feels more like a running back difference than anything else.
Renck: Harvey has delivered a memorable rookie season. He boasts 12 touchdowns. To put that in perspective, in the two years leading up to his 2,000-yard season, Hall of Famer Terrell Davis posted 15 apiece in 1996 and 1997. The difference? Davis was a bell cow. Harvey is more Liam Neeson, possessing a “very particular set of skills.” He does not need Siri to find the end zone. However, he is not Dobbins. Dobbins was good early, but a finisher late, averaging 5.6 yards per carry in the second half in 10 games. In the six games since Dobbins’ foot injury that might heal by the Super Bowl, Harvey has averaged 3.7 yards per attempt overall and 3.7 in the second half. For the Broncos to reach Super Bowl LX, they need Bo Nix to throw roughly 35 times per game. He might be too young, it might be too much to ask, but Broncos require more from Harvey and the offensive line.
Gabriel: They need the defense to get back to its sure-tackling, red-zone-dominating ways, too, Troy. The game gets faster in the postseason. Nix and most of the Broncos got a taste of that last year in Buffalo. This defense should be ready to make that transition smoothly. They’ll be playing at home in front of a frothing crowd that hasn’t seen postseason football live in a decade. Another wrinkle I wonder about: Nix talked after the Chiefs game about recognizing at one point that he should have tucked the ball and ran. As the game went, he did that more. Payton dialed up a beauty of a designed draw for a 9-yard touchdown, Nix scrambled four times and finished with a season-high nine carries. He’s going to finish with fewer carries than last year — 92 as a rookie in the regular season vs. 75 heading into Week 18 this year, but the biggest difference is the production. He generated 41 first downs last year with his legs compared to 22 so far this season. One way to help Harvey and the run game in the postseason: Take the understandable regular-season governor off Nix and make him a featured part of the plan.
Renck: Harvey is showing more patience as he learns to go north-and-south, rather than bumping outside. He breaks tackles and is physical. One of two things need to happen moving forward. He must get more touches, meaning keeping him on the field on third down in place of the unproductive Tyler Badie. Harvey’s improvement in blitz pickup warrants additional snaps. Or Nix has to run roughly six times a game for more than 40 yards, easing the pressure on Harvey. The Chiefs game reminded us how dangerous Nix can be with his legs. Harvey has been great at the goal line, and mid everywhere else. The Broncos’ ability to make a run to the Super Bowl hinges on how well Harvey and Nix run over the next month.
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Troy Renck, Parker Gabriel
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