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Tag: criminal charges

  • What percent of ICE detainees have criminal histories?

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    Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said the majority of immigrants in federal immigration detention have a criminal history.

    She made the statement during a lengthy and somewhat confusing back-and-forth with CBS News correspondent Margaret Brennan Jan. 18 on “Face the Nation“:

    Brennan: “What’s the breakdown of the percentage of those you have in custody who have actually committed a criminal offense versus just the civil infraction?”

    Noem: “Every single individual has committed a crime, but 70% of them have committed or have charges against them on violent crimes, and crimes that they are charged with or have been convicted of, that have come from other countries that are here illegally, first of all. And then they have committed a criminal act while they’ve been here or in their home countries as well.”

    Brennan: “It’s not 70%.”

    Noem: “Yes, it is. It absolutely is, Margaret. You guys keep changing your percentage, you pick and choose what numbers you think work, but that is the facts, is that 70% of the people that we have detained have charges against them or have been convicted of charges.”

    Brennan: “OK, well, our reporting is that 47% — based on your agency’s own numbers — 47% have criminal convictions against them.”

    Noem’s comments could be taken a number of ways. At first, Noem’s wording made it sound like she was referencing people with violent criminal convictions or charges. But she also talked about pending charges. And Brennan asked Noem about people currently in Immigration and Customs Enforcement custody, but Noem’s wording made it sound like she was describing detention more broadly under Trump’s entire first year in office.

    Analysis of government data shows most people the government has detained have not committed violent crimes. And people who are facing criminal charges aren’t necessarily accused of a violent crime, and they could be acquitted.

    While campaigning in 2024, President Donald Trump promised to prioritize deporting violent criminals, and he has since tried to assure Americans that’s what his administration is doing.

    “We’re looking to get the criminals out right now, the criminals,” Trump said at a Jan. 20 press conference marking the one-year anniversary of his second term in office. “We’re focused on the murderers, the drug dealers.”

    Entering the U.S. illegally is generally a misdemeanor and being in the U.S. illegally is generally a civil offense.

    The percentage of immigrants who have criminal convictions or pending charges varies depending on the data’s time frame: Are we talking about Trump’s first year in office? Or are we taking snapshots of who’s in detention at any given time. Either way, Noem’s figure is higher than what the data reflects. Currently, about half of immigrants in ICE detention have criminal convictions or pending charges. But when we look at all immigrants who have been federally detained since Trump took office for his second term, the number goes up to approximately 64%.

    The Department of Homeland Security didn’t respond to our request for comment. Here’s a breakdown of the numbers.

    Have 70% of detained immigrants committed violent crimes?

    Independent data analyses have found the percentage of detained immigrants convicted of violent offenses to be far below 70%.

    But the figure is hard to quantify. DHS’ public data shows how many immigrants have been convicted or charged with a crime, but not what type of crime. So the group could include people who have been convicted of rape or murder as well as those convicted of property theft or traffic violations.

    An October analysis by the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, found that 5% of detainees from Oct. 1 to Nov. 15 had been convicted of violent crime. Most detainees with a criminal conviction were found guilty of traffic violations.

    The New York Times reached a similar conclusion, finding that from Jan. 20 to Oct. 15, 7% of immigrants arrested by ICE had violent convictions.

    Do 70% of immigrants currently in detention have criminal convictions or pending criminal charges?

    No, the percentage is about half. ICE periodically updates public-facing statistics about people who are in immigration detention. According to the latest data — from Jan. 7 — 68,990 people were in detention.

    Of those, 17,729 were listed as having criminal convictions and 17,881 were facing pending criminal charges. That means about 26% of detained immigrants had a criminal conviction and another 26% had pending criminal charges. So about 52% of detained immigrants had either a criminal conviction or pending criminal charge.

    Looking at a more recent time frame, CBS News reported Jan. 16 that internal DHS data showed a record-high of about 73,000 immigrants in ICE detention. About 47% of those detainees had criminal convictions or pending charges, CBS reported. Brennan cited this figure on air.

    The Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse, a research group that uses Freedom of Information Act requests to analyze government data, charts detention data snapshots taken twice a month. The percentage of immigrants with criminal convictions or pending charges during Trump’s first year in office ranged from 41% to 57%.

    Do 70% of all the immigrants detained during Trump’s second term have criminal convictions or pending charges? 

    The best figures suggest it’s in that ballpark. University of California Los Angeles researchers at the Deportation Data Project collect and publish immigration data received via FOIA requests. A PolitiFact analysis of its data from Jan. 20, 2025, to Oct. 15 found 64% of immigrants who have been detained under Trump’s second term had either a criminal conviction or pending criminal charge.

    About 66% of immigrants ICE arrested from Jan. 20, 2025, to Oct. 15 had criminal convictions or pending charges. Not everyone ICE arrests ends up in detention because there’s limited space.

    The share of detained immigrants who have criminal charges or convictions has “fallen rapidly,” David Bier, associate director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, said. So it’s “bad faith to ignore the more recent share” of immigrants who have been booked into detention.

    It’s important to note that people with pending charges may never be convicted of a crime; the charges could be dismissed, or they could be found innocent. Many people will miss their day in a U.S. court because they were deported.

    About 30% of immigrants detained during Trump’s first year had criminal convictions, the Deportation Data Project found.

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  • Durham schools superintendent announces mandatory staff training after indictments

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    Two days after three Durham school administrators were indicted on criminal charges, the superintendent announced that all staff will undergo mandatory training in how to respond to possible child abuse.

    Superintendent Anthony Lewis gave reporters an overview Thursday of how the school system was handling the matter, which concerns how the administrators investigated and followed up after a photo surfaced in November 2024 of a 6-year-old girl with autism tied with rope to a classroom chair.

    “There are thousands of families across the entire Durham community who place a tremendous amount of trust in us each day,” Lewis said. “Not just to educate their children and most importantly to keep them safe. Both of those responsibilities are critically important.”

    Lewis wouldn’t take any questions Thursday, citing confidential personnel matters and the ongoing investigation.

    On Wednesday, Eno Valley Elementary School principal Tounya Clayton Wright, and two DPS administrators, Ayesha Hunter and Tanya Giovanni, were charged with

    • Obstruction of Justice: All three officials are accused of failing to produce evidence requested via search warrants and court orders.
    • Perjury: Hunter and Wright are also accused of lying under oath. Wright allegedly claimed she only learned of the photo when it was “anonymously slipped under her door,” despite evidence suggesting she was previously aware of it. Hunter allegedly claimed she did not have any notes from the investigation.

    Giovanni, Hunter and Wright have been suspended from DPS with pay. Lewis said the district is conducting its own investigation with Raleigh-based Tharrington Smith law firm.

    DPS’ next steps

    Lewis, who became superintendent in the summer of 2024, said the unidentified teaching assistants accused in the incident were questioned, suspended, and ultimately resigned.

    “In the months that followed, law enforcement questioned various members of our staff and court orders were issued to the school system for a variety of documents,” Lewis said. “Law enforcement raised concerns that our response was not as timely, accurate or complete as it should be.”

    In December, Lewis said, the school system learned the three administrators were being investigated for their handling of the incident. DPS doesn’t have a timeline for how long the investigations will take or know if the administrators will be reinstated.

    While DPS has established policies in place, Lewis said additional measures will include the mandatory training, standardizing systems to log and store legal documents, and figuring out how to better respond to law enforcement agencies’ requests.

    “When we’re talking about the safety, the well-being of our scholars, there is only one path forward,” Lewis said. “We must act with urgency, and we must cooperate fully, and if we fail to do that we must indeed hold people accountable.”

    Durham Public Schools has over 50 schools. Eno Valley Elementary, on Milton Road, has 396 students, according to the school’s website. Alexis Spann is listed as interim principal.

    This story was originally published January 22, 2026 at 5:57 PM.

    Related Stories from Raleigh News & Observer

    Kristen Johnson

    The News & Observer

    Kristen Johnson is a local government reporter covering Durham for The News & Observer. She previously covered Cary and western Wake County. Prior to coming home to the Triangle, she reported for The Fayetteville Observer and spent time covering politics and culture in Washington, D.C. She is an alumna of UNC at Charlotte and American University. 

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    Kristen Johnson

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  • Prosecutor dismisses charges against Trump and others in Georgia election interference case

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    The prosecutor who recently took over the Georgia election interference case against President Donald Trump and others said in a court filing Wednesday that he has decided not to pursue the case further.Pete Skandalakis, the executive director of the Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council of Georgia, took over the case last month from Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who was removed over an “appearance of impropriety” created by a romantic relationship with the special prosecutor she chose to lead the case.After Skandalakis’ filing, Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee issued a one-paragraph order dismissing the case in its entirety.It was unlikely that legal action against Trump could have moved forward while he is president. But 14 other defendants still faced charges, including former New York mayor and Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani and former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows.After the Georgia Supreme Court in September declined to hear Willis’ appeal of her disqualification, it fell to the Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council to find a new prosecutor. Skandalakis said last month that he reached out to several prosecutors, but they all declined to take on the case. Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee set a Nov. 14 deadline for the appointment of a new prosecutor, so Skandalakis chose to appoint himself rather than allowing the case to be dismissed.

    The prosecutor who recently took over the Georgia election interference case against President Donald Trump and others said in a court filing Wednesday that he has decided not to pursue the case further.

    Pete Skandalakis, the executive director of the Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council of Georgia, took over the case last month from Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who was removed over an “appearance of impropriety” created by a romantic relationship with the special prosecutor she chose to lead the case.

    After Skandalakis’ filing, Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee issued a one-paragraph order dismissing the case in its entirety.

    It was unlikely that legal action against Trump could have moved forward while he is president. But 14 other defendants still faced charges, including former New York mayor and Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani and former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows.

    After the Georgia Supreme Court in September declined to hear Willis’ appeal of her disqualification, it fell to the Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council to find a new prosecutor. Skandalakis said last month that he reached out to several prosecutors, but they all declined to take on the case. Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee set a Nov. 14 deadline for the appointment of a new prosecutor, so Skandalakis chose to appoint himself rather than allowing the case to be dismissed.

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  • Babysitter sexually abused children over 7-year period, Michigan cops say

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    The nurse faces 47 criminal charges, authorities said.

    The nurse faces 47 criminal charges, authorities said.

    Getty Images/iStockphoto

    A 63-year-old babysitter is accused of abusing children in her care over a seven-year period, Michigan authorities say.

    Parents came forward to Michigan State Police troopers about the alleged abuse of their children, which they said took place from 2013 to 2020, according to an Oct. 21 news release.

    They said the abuse occurred in the home of their kids’ babysitter, Gaila L. Bennett, of Midland, state police said.

    One of the children said Bennett sexually abused her nearly every day she watched her beginning when she was in kindergarten, according to court records obtained by the Midland Daily News.

    Another victim said that when she was a third grader, Bennett began assaulting her on a bed in her basement, the station reported.

    Bennett is also accused of rubbing soap in the children’s eyes, then sexually assaulting them in the shower, WJRT reported, citing court documents.

    “The victims told investigators that Bennett gave them an unknown medication, made the children take unclothed showers, climbed in the shower with them naked and created images of them in sexually explicit poses,” the complaint said, according to WJRT.

    Troopers executed a search warrant in Bennett’s home and seized electronic devices for evidence, state police said.

    Investigators said Bennett was arrested and arraigned Oct. 21 on 47 criminal sexual conduct charges.

    More charges are possible, troopers said. Anyone with information is asked to contact state police at 989-280-7189.

    Midland is about a 130-mile drive northwest from Detroit.

    Mike Stunson

    Lexington Herald-Leader

    Mike Stunson covers real-time news for McClatchy. He is a 2011 Western Kentucky University graduate who has previously worked at the Paducah Sun and Madisonville Messenger as a sports reporter and the Lexington Herald-Leader as a breaking news reporter. 

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  • Trump says he expects charges for other adversaries after Comey indictment

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    Donald Trump said on Friday that he expected more people whom he considers his political enemies to face criminal charges, a day after the justice department indicted former FBI director James Comey and faced a torrent of criticism for enacting the president’s campaign of retribution.

    “It’s not a list, but I think there’ll be others,” Trump said as he departed the White House to travel to the Ryder Cup golf tournament. “I mean, they’re corrupt. They were corrupt radical left Democrats.”

    Related: Who has Trump targeted so far besides Comey in his retribution campaign?

    Trump’s blunt remarks underscored the perilous moment for his political adversaries, given that the justice department pressed ahead with criminal charges against Comey, even though it was widely seen – inside and outside the administration – to be a weak case.

    The indictment against Comey, filed in federal district court on Thursday in Alexandria, Virginia, alleged that he misled lawmakers in September 2020 when he stood by his previous testimony to Congress claiming he had never authorized anyone at the FBI to leak to reporters.

    Prosecutors alleged that statement was not true and that Comey had authorized his friend and Columbia law school professor Dan Richman to leak to reporters about an investigation into Hilary Clinton, when Richman worked for a short time as a special government employee at the FBI.

    But the underlying evidence against Comey, which remains unclear from the two-page indictment, was considered to be insufficient for a conviction. The issues were laid out in a memo and Erik Siebert, the then interim US attorney for the eastern district of Virginia, declined to bring charges.

    Trump fired Siebert within days and replaced him with Lindsey Halligan, most recently a White House aide with no prosecutorial experience. Halligan was briefed on the problems with the case but pressed forward with charges anyway, presenting the case herself to the grand jury.

    The grand jury returned an indictment on two counts but declined to approve a third. Even then, only 14 out of 23 grand jurors voted to bring the false statement charge, barely more than the 12-person threshold, court documents show.

    The fraught nature of the Comey indictment raised fresh fears that Trump’s political appointees at justice department headquarters in Washington and at its field offices elsewhere will feel emboldened to pursue criminal cases against the president’s other adversaries.

    Among other people, Trump has fixated in recent weeks on criminal investigations against the New York attorney general Letitia James and Democratic senator Adam Schiff over mortgage fraud allegations. James brought a civil fraud case against Trump last year and Schiff led the first impeachment trial.

    Last weekend, before Comey’s indictment, Trump called on his attorney general Pam Bondi to pursue Comey, James and Schiff. “They impeached me twice and indicted me (5 times!), OVER NOTHING. JUSTICE MUST BE SERVED, NOW!” Trump posted on Truth Social.

    The administration also launched a criminal investigation into former CIA director John Brennan, who Trump despises for his role in the US intelligence community’s assessment in 2016 about Russian malign influence operations aimed at helping the Trump campaign.

    Last month, the FBI also searched the home and office of John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser turned critic, over allegations he mishandled classified documents. The FBI recovered documents with classification markings but Bolton’s lawyer claimed they had been declassified.

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  • US Attorney Erik Siebert resigns, won’t prosecute Letitia James on flawed charges

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    Erik Siebert, the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, has resigned following pressure from President Donald Trump over his handling of an investigation into New York Attorney General Letitia James. Siebert, nominated by Trump in May but not yet confirmed by the Senate, was overseeing a probe into allegations that James committed mortgage fraud by falsifying records to secure favorable loan terms. The investigation was prompted by claims from Federal Housing Finance Agency Director William Pulte, who alleged James misrepresented her financial records.

    President Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Siebert’s performance, declaring, “He didn’t quit, I fired him!” He criticized Siebert for receiving support from Democratic Senators Tim Kaine and Mark Warner during his nomination, suggesting this indicated a lack of impartiality. Trump also faulted Siebert for reportedly declining to pursue criminal charges against James, despite the investigation’s findings, noting that the U.S. Attorney had concluded there was insufficient evidence to bring a case.

    In his resignation email, Siebert thanked colleagues for their dedication and professionalism, emphasizing his commitment to justice. The Eastern District of Virginia declined further comment on the resignation. James has denied the allegations against her, calling the probe politically motivated and an attempt at retaliation for her civil fraud case against Trump, which seeks damages for alleged financial misconduct.

    Legal and political analysts say the resignation raises concerns about the independence of the Justice Department and the potential for political interference in federal investigations. Critics argue that pressuring Siebert to pursue a case without sufficient evidence reflects a broader pattern of using government authority to target political opponents, highlighting the tension between law enforcement and political agendas in high-profile investigations.

    The post US Attorney Erik Siebert resigns, won’t prosecute Letitia James on flawed charges appeared first on Salon.com.

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  • Wrong-way driver passes vice presidential motorcade in Wisconsin

    Wrong-way driver passes vice presidential motorcade in Wisconsin

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    A suspected drunken driver going the wrong way on the interstate nearly struck a vehicle containing Vice President Kamala Harris Monday night in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.Sister station WISN obtained video from about 8:20 p.m. Monday showing the driver getting onto Interstate 794 via an offramp. The white car heads west into the eastbound lanes just as the motorcade is approaching on what was an otherwise closed-off freeway. The vehicle is seen moving to the left lanes as the first squad at the head of the motorcade passes by. Each of the more than a dozen vehicles then drives past the car until the final ones, driven by Milwaukee County Sheriff’s Deputies, make a traffic stop. The driver has been identified as a 55-year-old Milwaukee man, whom WISN did not identify as of early Wednesday morning because he had yet to be formally charged. According to an arrest report obtained by WISN, when the man was told by a deputy he’d “almost struck a vehicle in the VPOTUS’ motorcade, he was extremely surprised and had no recollection of entering the freeway or coming close to striking another vehicle. He also stated he did not have any intention of harming Vice President Kamala Harris or anybody related to her campaign.” According to the report, the man failed several field sobriety tests and had an open beer can in his vehicle. He was arrested for drunken driving and second-degree recklessly endangering safety. He remained in jail Tuesday night without bail, awaiting a hearing. The Harris campaign referred any questions regarding the incident to the United States Secret Service. “The U.S. Secret Service is aware of the incident involving a motorist traveling in the opposite direction on the highway while the Vice President was in her motorcade. We are grateful to the Milwaukee Sheriff’s Office for their response which allowed them to stop the motorist and take the driver into custody for DUI,” Secret Service Spokesperson Joe Routh told WISN.

    A suspected drunken driver going the wrong way on the interstate nearly struck a vehicle containing Vice President Kamala Harris Monday night in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

    Sister station WISN obtained video from about 8:20 p.m. Monday showing the driver getting onto Interstate 794 via an offramp. The white car heads west into the eastbound lanes just as the motorcade is approaching on what was an otherwise closed-off freeway.

    The vehicle is seen moving to the left lanes as the first squad at the head of the motorcade passes by. Each of the more than a dozen vehicles then drives past the car until the final ones, driven by Milwaukee County Sheriff’s Deputies, make a traffic stop.

    The driver has been identified as a 55-year-old Milwaukee man, whom WISN did not identify as of early Wednesday morning because he had yet to be formally charged.

    According to an arrest report obtained by WISN, when the man was told by a deputy he’d “almost struck a vehicle in the VPOTUS’ motorcade, he was extremely surprised and had no recollection of entering the freeway or coming close to striking another vehicle. He also stated he did not have any intention of harming Vice President Kamala Harris or anybody related to her campaign.”

    According to the report, the man failed several field sobriety tests and had an open beer can in his vehicle.

    He was arrested for drunken driving and second-degree recklessly endangering safety. He remained in jail Tuesday night without bail, awaiting a hearing.

    The Harris campaign referred any questions regarding the incident to the United States Secret Service.

    “The U.S. Secret Service is aware of the incident involving a motorist traveling in the opposite direction on the highway while the Vice President was in her motorcade. We are grateful to the Milwaukee Sheriff’s Office for their response which allowed them to stop the motorist and take the driver into custody for DUI,” Secret Service Spokesperson Joe Routh told WISN.

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  • The Supreme Court Is Shaming Itself

    The Supreme Court Is Shaming Itself

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    Produced by ElevenLabs and News Over Audio (NOA) using AI narration.

    Donald Trump is determined to avoid accountability before the general election, and, so far, the U.S. Supreme Court is helping him.

    Trump has no legal ground whatsoever to delay a ruling in his plea for presidential immunity. The reason Trump has nevertheless sought to slow down the immunity appeals process is obvious: to postpone the trial date, hopefully pushing it into a time when, as president, he would control the Department of Justice and thus could quash the prosecution altogether. The Supreme Court has shamed itself by being a party to this, when the sole issue before the Court is presidential immunity. By contrast, Special Counsel Jack Smith has both law and policy on his side in seeking a prompt determination on immunity and a speedy trial soon thereafter. Yet the Court has ignored all that.

    The Supreme Court’s lollygagging is reflected in its scheduling the immunity case for a leisurely April 25 hearing. It’s too late to do anything about that now, but the Court has an opportunity to correct course following oral argument. The justices should press Trump’s counsel on what possible legitimate reason he has to oppose a speedy resolution of the appeal. And then they should rule with dispatch because there is still time, albeit barely, to vindicate the public’s right to a speedy trial.

    Let’s recap how we arrived at the present moment. After Judge Tanya Chutkan ruled against Trump’s claim of presidential immunity on December 1 and Trump appealed that ruling to the D.C. Circuit, Smith asked the Supreme Court to hear the appeal immediately, leapfrogging the delay of the circuit-level argument and decision. Trump opposed that, and the Supreme Court declined Smith’s invitation. The circuit court expedited its appeal and on February 6 issued its decision, again rejecting Trump’s immunity argument in toto. Trump then sought a stay in the Supreme Court, and advocated various measures to slow the Court’s hearing of the case. The Supreme Court then deliberated for a couple of weeks before accepting the case for review, and not scheduling the argument until two months later—on the very last day of oral arguments for this session.

    Were he not seeking to avoid any trial in advance of the general election so he could maximize the chances of becoming the next president of the United States, Trump would have an interest in a speedy resolution of the immunity question, in contrast to the foot-dragging positions he has advocated throughout the litigation of this issue. Anyone with a legitimate claim of immunity has every interest in not suffering a single day more under the opprobrium of multiple criminal charges, not to mention being under pretrial bail conditions and a gag order. (Trump’s lawyers have argued against his existing gag order, saying it sweeps so broadly as to undermine their client’s ability to campaign for the presidency.)

    The law itself recognizes the need for speed on this issue. With questions of immunity, courts permit an appeal in advance of a trial and forgo the usual rule that appeals are permitted only after a verdict is reached. The hope, in allowing for this, is to relieve someone from the opprobrium and burden of a trial, if the defendant is indeed immune. For the Court to set such a prolonged schedule—antithetical to the appropriate time frame for the only issue actually before the justices—speaks volumes about the role the Court has chosen to play in advancing the interests of the former president over the rule of law.

    The government has its own interests in seeking a prompt resolution of the immunity issue and a speedy criminal trial (and it has the same interest as a defendant in not subjecting someone to criminal charges who is immune from prosecution). But before delving into the government’s interests, let’s first dispense with a red herring: Special Counsel Smith is not disputing that Trump should be accorded sufficient time to prepare for trial. An inviolable constitutional safeguard is that all criminal defendants must be able to exercise their procedural rights to prepare. Judge Chutkan already weighed the parties’ competing claims. Her decision on a trial date fell well within the mark for similar cases, and that ruling is not on appeal (despite the Supreme Court’s behaving as if it were).

    The district judge’s selected timeline (seven months from the August 1 indictment), in a case whose facts and substantial evidence were already available to the defendant, was longer than deadlines set all around the country. By way of comparison, next door in the more conservative Virginia district, defendants routinely go to trial at great speed, without conservative commentators going to the barricades over alleged violations of the rights of the accused. That Trump is a rich, white, and politically powerful man does not mean he should be accorded more (or fewer) rights than others. And Chutkan has said that when the case returns to her, she will give Trump more time to prepare.

    With Trump’s rights intact, then, Smith has several legitimate grounds for the immunity appeal to be decided expeditiously and a trial to start as promptly as possible. DOJ internal policy prohibits taking action in a case for “the purpose of” choosing sides in or affecting the outcome of an election. That is unquestionable and not in dispute here. Rather, the point is that well-established neutral criminal-justice principles support a speedy trial. This trial’s outcome, of course, is not known in advance, and it may lead some voters to think better or worse of the defendant and the current presidential administration depending on the evidence and the outcome.

    Moreover, the public has a profound interest in a fair and speedy trial. As Justice Samuel Alito wrote for a unanimous Supreme Court, the Speedy Trial Act “was designed not just to benefit defendants but also to serve the public interest.” The refrain that “justice too long delayed is justice denied” has unmistakable resonance in this criminal context. The special counsel’s briefs in the D.C. case are replete with references to this well-settled case law. This means that even when the accused is seeking to delay his day in court, that “does not alter the prosecutor’s obligation to see to it that the case is brought on for trial,” as the Supreme Court has well articulated. Many defendants seek to avoid the day of reckoning—hence Edward Bennett Williams’s famous quip that for the defense, an adjournment is equivalent to an acquittal. The law provides that the public, the prosecution, and most emphatically the courts need not oblige that stratagem.

    What’s more, when a defendant seeks to postpone a trial until a point at which he can no longer be prosecuted, the Justice Department may request the trial be held before that deadline. The DOJ’s interest in deterrence and accountability warrants this action. If Trump should win the election, he will become immune as president from criminal trial for at least four years (and perhaps forever by seeking dismissal of the federal case with prejudice or testing the efficacy of granting himself a pardon). The Justice Department can accordingly uphold the public interest in deterrence and accountability by seeking the prompt conviction of the leader of an insurrection. This DOJ need not advance the goals of a future administration led by that very “oathbreaking insurrectionist.”

    Another objective of criminal punishment is “specific deterrence,” ensuring the defendant herself does not commit offenses in the future. Given the grand jury’s determination that Trump committed felonies to try to interfere with the 2020 election, there are strong law-enforcement reasons to obtain a conviction to specifically deter Trump. Indeed, in proposing a trial date to Judge Chutkan, Smith quoted Justice Alito, on behalf of the whole Court, that speedy trials “serve the public interest by … preventing extended pretrial delay from impairing the deterrent effect of punishment.”

    Trump’s public denigration of the legal system—the incessant claims that the criminal case is a witch hunt—also gives a nation committed to the rule of law a vital interest in holding a public trial where a jury can assess Trump’s actions. Trials can thus serve to restore faith in the justice system.

    It is worth noting that when the government seeks its day in court, it simultaneously affords the defendant his day in court—providing him more process, not less. Indeed, the Department of Justice’s so-called 60-day rule—which generally forbids it from taking overt actions in non-public cases with respect to political candidates and closely related people right before an election—is there to avoid a federal prosecutor hurling untested new allegations against a political candidate precisely because he would not have time to clear his reputation before the election. Here, the government is seeking to provide just that forum for Trump to clear his name before the election—to test the criminal allegations against the highest legal standard we have for adjudicating facts—and yet right-wing critics attack Smith. Trump of course wants to avoid that test, but that is an interest the courts should abjure.

    The justices still have time to get back on track. Trump’s claim that presidents have absolute immunity should be an easy issue to resolve given these criminal charges. Whether a president should have criminal immunity in some specific circumstances is an abstract question for another day, because efforts to stay in office and use the levers of the presidency are certainly not those specific circumstances. The appeals have delayed matters long enough at the expense of the right of the American people to a fair and speedy trial. Let them not stand in the way of ever having a trial at all.

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    Andrew Weissmann

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  • Northwestern roiled by criminal charges against two students who made parody copies of student paper

    Northwestern roiled by criminal charges against two students who made parody copies of student paper

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    Divisions over the war in Gaza, questions about race as it relates to how the law is enforced, and what free speech means on campus are part of a controversy at Northwestern University and its student paper after two Black students were charged criminally for distributing a parody of the publication.

    Nearly 90 Northwestern students, professors and community members criticized the response to the incident late last week, calling it part of an effort to silence pro-Palestinian voices that disproportionately affect people of color.

    The two students were accused of distributing a parody of The Daily Northwestern and the consequences have many students and faculty calling it an overstep and a “symptom of the over-policing of Black students” on campus.

    The men, 20 and 22, were charged in December with theft of advertising services, a class A misdemeanor, according to Cook County court records. The records say they were released on the scene, but the charge is still pending.

    The men were the subject of the letter that identified them as Northwestern students who allegedly created an imitation front page of the campus newspaper that critiqued the university’s actions in connection to Israel’s bombardment of Gaza in response to last year’s Hamas terror attacks.

    An attorney representing the men declined to comment. They are scheduled to appear in court again Feb. 29 in the Skokie branch court.

    Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx also declined to respond to messages seeking comment.

    “I think the approach to these two students was extremely aggressive and unnecessary,” said Mary Pattillo, professor of sociology and chair of the Department of Black Studies at Northwestern, who signed the letter. “This strikes me as very much in line with a country that has no other way to manage behavior other than criminalizing it.”

    On Oct. 25, students on campus could find a single-page flyer that looked similar to the popular student-run newspaper with the headline “Northwestern complicit in genocide of Palestinians” printed across its lower third.

    A court filing accuses the two men of attaching “an unauthorized replica of the Daily Northwestern Newspaper” to a previously distributed edition and placing copies in the newspaper stand.

    The charges say they did so “without a contractual agreement between the publisher and an advertiser.” Listed as the complainant is Stacia Campbell, general manager of Student Publishing Co.

    In a Monday statement, Student Publishing, parent company of The Daily Northwestern, said it reported the fake front page to campus police, which resulted in charges filed by the Cook County state’s attorney’s office.

    It noted that as a private entity, it does not have the ability to file or dismiss charges.

    “The content of the fake front page had no bearing on this decision,” the statement read.. “This is not an issue of speech or parody. A fake newspaper distributed on its own, apart from The Daily Northwestern, would cause no concern. But tampering with the distribution of a student  newspaper is impermissible conduct.”

    Evgeny Stolyarov, a second-year student of Middle East and North African studies, said when he first saw copies of the parody newspaper in his biology lecture hall on Oct. 25, he thought the move was “genius.”

    “I don’t think a single person who saw those thought it was the real ‘Daily Northwestern,’” Stolyarov said. “First of all, it was not called the ‘Daily Northwestern,’ but the ‘Northwestern Daily.’ The reaction wasn’t as big at the moment, and I don’t think anyone expected that it would be a Class A misdemeanor.”

    Stolyarov noted that the authentic newspaper’s print cycle is Mondays and Thursdays, and the parody was distributed on a Wednesday.

    “So no one was looking for the new copy and walked into this thinking, ‘Oh, I’ve been fooled!’” he said. “So to say that somehow this infringed on the rights of the journalists – who also released a statement saying that the charges should be dropped – I just think that all across the board, the arguments don’t add up.”

    In an editorial posted Feb. 5, The Daily Northwestern Editorial Board said they don’t support the criminal prosecution of the students responsible for the parody paper.

    “Our newspaper has always prided itself on its commitment to informing and supporting students, and we believe our publisher should play no part in perpetrating harm against the communities we aim to serve,” the editorial stated.

    “Our university and community — along with the American policing and justice system as a whole — has a long history of placing people of color in harm’s way. As a publication that strives to unearth these injustices through our reporting, we remain wholeheartedly opposed to any course of action that would entwine our publication with this harmful legacy.”

    Pattillo said, unfortunately, the approach taken doesn’t surprise her. The conflict has stirred controversy at elite universities across the country.

    “I think campuses are always forever challenged with how to approach the energies of their students,” she said. “In this moment where we might think about other approaches like restorative justice or, on a college campus, one might think of more dialogue – instead, this escalated to the criminal legal system.”

    Pattillo noted that this type of policing is what Black students organized against last year after the university announced it would use private security to remove them from campus buildings at night when Northwestern University Community Not Cops’ (NUCNC) protests to invest in Black students were met with pepper spray and arrests.

    “I think given that students of color are especially at the forefront of this particular social movement, and at the forefront of many social movements, it is the students who represent groups who experience oppression who rise up and protest,” Pattillo said.

    According to Pattillo, students of color facing a greater extent of the law is an issue seen on college campuses near and far.

    In November, a Palestinian American student at the University of Illinois at Chicago was handcuffed and arrested in a classroom and charged with criminal defacement for marking up property with messages supporting Palestine around campus.

    Though the charge was dismissed, students said the consequences were an overreach by the university.

    “We’ve had so many instances where UICPD has been aggressive to Muslim students for no reason,” said Celine Taki, a Syrian American junior at UIC, who was at a January rally calling for the firing of the campus police officers who carried out the arrest. “That girl was arrested just because she wrote Free Palestine on the wall. There’s been over 130 cases of vandalism on this campus, but only that one resulted in an arrest where she was detained.”

    According to the latest available UIC police records, the Palestinian American student is the only person to have been arrested for criminal defacement on campus.

    “On university campuses, it is always important to remember that we’re talking about 18- to 22-year-olds, sometimes 17- to 22-year-olds –  I think the most important approach is to think of the university as one large classroom and to treat all students as students and that this is their learning journey, and to approach them as learners and as teachers as well,” Pattillo added. “I do think that their activism is also instructive for their colleagues and for their faculty members and staff and administrators. That is the kind of approach that should be taken in these very, very tense and difficult moments.”

    Northwestern community members who penned the North by Northwestern letter are asking others to show support by adding their names to a Change.org petition demanding the charges be dropped.

    “The vast majority of the student body, whether it’s groups that are directly connected to Palestine or groups that have nothing to do with the movement, all agree that this will have a chilling effect on free speech,” said Stolyarov, who is a member of Jewish Wildcats for Ceasefire. “It’s nothing new that the university uses police brutality, especially against black students, so it was both shock and a sense that we’ve seen this before.”

    Ed Yohnka, a spokesman for the American Civil Liberties Union Illinois, said the charges feel like “a misuse of the statute” the pair was cited under.

    “These are college students that were engaging in a political protest, one might even describe it as a stunt to make a political point,” Yohnka said. “No one was meaningfully harmed as a result of this.”

    Yohnka noted that criminal charges could follow and potentially harm individuals for years and said the use of the statute in this instance raises concerns that criminal charges could be levied unequally based on the type of speech in question.

    “This is where the prosecutorial power that is going to be used feels a little off the mark in a use of taxpayer dollars,” he said.

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    Zareen Syed, Madeline Buckley

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  • How Trump Gets Away With It

    How Trump Gets Away With It

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    If Donald Trump regains the presidency, he will once again become the chief law-enforcement officer of the United States. There may be no American leader less suited to “take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed,” as the Constitution directs the president. But that authority comes with the office, including command of the Justice Department and the FBI.

    We know what Trump would like to do with that power, because he’s said so out loud. He is driven by self-interest and revenge, in that order. He wants to squelch the criminal charges now pending against him, and he wants to redeploy federal prosecutors against his enemies, beginning with President Joe Biden. The important question is how much of that agenda he could actually carry out in a second term.

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    Trump tried and failed to cross many lines during his time in the White House. He proposed, for example, that the IRS conduct punitive audits of his political antagonists and that Border Patrol officers shoot migrants in the legs. Subordinates talked the former president out of many such schemes or passively resisted them by running out the clock. The whole second volume of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report, which documented 10 occasions on which Trump tried to obstruct justice, can be read as a compilation of thwarted directives.

    The institutional resistance Trump faced has reinforced his determination to place loyalists in key jobs should he win reelection. One example is Jeffrey Clark, who tried to help Trump overturn the 2020 election. Trump sought to appoint Clark as acting attorney general in early January 2021, but backed off after a mass-resignation threat at the DOJ. People who know him well suggest that he would not let that threat deter him a second time. Trump will also want to fire Christopher Wray, the FBI director, and replace him with someone more pliable. Only tradition, not binding law, prevents the president and his political appointees from issuing orders to the FBI about its investigations.

    The top jobs at the DOJ require Senate confirmation, and even a Republican Senate might not confirm an indicted conspirator to overturn an election like Clark for attorney general. Under the Vacancies Reform Act, which regulates temporary appointments, Trump can appoint any currently serving Senate-confirmed official from anywhere in the executive branch as acting attorney general. Of course, all of the officials serving at the beginning of his new term would be holdovers from the Biden administration.

    Trump’s allies are searching for loyalists among the Republicans currently serving on several dozen independent boards and commissions, such as the Federal Trade Commission, that have “party balancing” requirements for their appointees. Alternatively, Trump could choose any senior career official in the Justice Department who has served for at least 90 days in a position ranked GS-15 or higher on the federal pay scale—a cohort that includes, for example, senior trial attorneys, division counsels, and section chiefs. As Anne Joseph O’Connell, a Stanford law professor and an expert on the Vacancies Reform Act, reminded me, “This is how we got Matthew Whitaker,” the former attorney general’s chief of staff, as acting attorney general. (Whitaker was widely criticized as unqualified.)

    Would some career officials, somewhere among the department’s 115,000 employees, do Trump’s bidding in exchange for an acting appointment? Trump’s team is looking.

    Once Trump has installed loyalists in crucial posts, his first priority—an urgent one for a man facing 91 felony charges in four jurisdictions—would be to save himself from conviction and imprisonment.

    Of the four indictments against him, two are federal: the Florida case, with charges of unlawful retention of classified documents and obstruction of justice, and the Washington case, which charges Trump with unlawful efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Those will be the easiest for him to dispose of.

    To begin with, there is little to stop Trump from firing Special Counsel Jack Smith, who is overseeing both of the federal investigations. Justice Department regulations confer a measure of protection on a special counsel against arbitrary dismissal, but he may be removed for “misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or for other good cause.” That last clause is a catchall that Trump could readily invoke.

    The regulations state that a special counsel may be fired “only by the personal action of the Attorney General,” but that would not stop Trump either. In the unlikely event that his handpicked attorney general were reluctant, he could fire the attorney general and keep on firing successors until he found one to do his bidding, as Richard Nixon did to get rid of Archibald Cox. Alternatively, Trump could claim—and probably prevail, if it came to a lawsuit—that the president is not bound by Justice Department regulations and can fire the special counsel himself.

    Smith’s departure would still leave Trump’s federal criminal charges intact, but no law would prevent Trump from ordering that they be dropped. He could do so even with a trial in progress, right up to the moment before a jury returned a verdict. No legal expert I talked with expressed any doubt that he could get away with this.

    Dismissing the charges would require the trial judges’ consent. But even if the judges were to object, Trump would almost certainly win on appeal: The Supreme Court is not likely to let a district judge decide whether or not the Justice Department has to prosecute a case.

    Trump will be able to avoid going to prison even if he has already been convicted of federal charges before he is sworn in. Here again, a trial judge is unlikely to order Trump imprisoned, even after sentencing, before he exhausts his appeals. And there is no plausible scenario in which that happens before Inauguration Day.

    At any time while Trump’s appeals are pending, his Justice Department may notify the appellate court that the prosecution no longer wishes to support his conviction. This is known as a confession of error on the government’s part; the effect, if the court grants the request, is to vacate a conviction. Under Attorney General Bill Barr, the Trump administration did something to similar effect in a false-statements case against former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, moving to dismiss the charges after Flynn had pleaded guilty but before his sentencing. (Trump later pardoned Flynn.) According to the relevant rule of criminal procedure, dismissal during prosecution—including on appeal from a conviction—requires “leave of the court,” but it’s highly unlikely that an appellate court would refuse to grant such a motion to dismiss.

    Trump might also invoke the pardon power on his own behalf. He has already asserted, as far back as 2018, that “I have the absolute right to PARDON myself.” No president has ever tried this, and whether he can is a contested question among legal scholars. Experts who agree with Trump say the Constitution frames the pardon power as total but for one exception, implicitly blessing all other uses. (The exception is that the president may not pardon an impeachment.) Those who disagree include the Justice Department itself, through its Office of Legal Counsel, which concluded in 1974 that a self-pardon would be invalid under “the fundamental rule that no one may be a judge in his own case.”

    But the debate over self-pardons wouldn’t matter much to Trump in practice. If he pardoned himself of all criminal charges, there would be no one with standing to challenge the pardon in court—other than, perhaps, the Justice Department, which would be under Trump’s control.

    Unlike the federal charges, Trump’s state criminal cases—for alleged racketeering and election interference in Georgia and hush-money payments to a porn star in New York—would not fall under his authority as president. Even so, the presidency would very likely protect him for at least the duration of his second term.

    The Office of Legal Counsel, which makes authoritative interpretations of the law for the executive branch, has twice opined, in 1973 and again in 2000, that “the indictment or criminal prosecution of a sitting President would unconstitutionally undermine the capacity of the executive branch to perform its constitutionally assigned functions.” That conclusion is binding for federal prosecutors, but state prosecutors are not obliged to follow it.

    No one knows what would happen if Fani Willis, the district attorney in Fulton County, Georgia, or Alvin Bragg, the DA in New York, decided to press ahead with their cases against Trump should he regain the presidency. Like so many outlandish questions pertaining to Trump, this one has no judicial precedent, because no sitting president has ever been charged with felony crimes. But legal scholars told me that Trump would have strong arguments, at least, to defer state criminal proceedings against him until he left the White House in 2029. By then, new prosecutors, with new priorities, may have replaced Willis and Bragg.

    Trump has named a long list of people as deserving of criminal charges, or execution. Among them are Joe Biden, Mark Milley, James Comey, Andrew McCabe, John Brennan, James Clapper, and Arthur Engoron, the judge in his New York civil fraud case.

    If he returns to office, Trump may not even have to order their prosecutions himself. He will be surrounded by allies who know what he wants. One likely DOJ appointee is Mike Davis, a Republican who has substantial government credentials: He was a law clerk for Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch and chief counsel for nominations to Senator Charles Grassley when Grassley chaired the Judiciary Committee.

    If Davis were acting attorney general, he said on a right-wing YouTube show, he would “rain hell on Washington.” First, “we’re gonna fire a lot of people in the executive branch, in the deep state.” He would also “indict Joe Biden and Hunter Biden and James Biden and every other scumball, sleazeball Biden.” And “every January 6 defendant is gonna get a pardon.” Trump could not immediately appoint an outsider like Davis attorney general. But he could make him a Justice Department section chief, and then appoint him as acting attorney general after 90 days.

    Trump could also appoint—or direct his attorney general to appoint—any lawyer, at any time, as special counsel to the Justice Department, with the authority to bring charges and prosecute a case. Trump might not be able to convict his political enemies of spurious charges, but he could immiserate them with years of investigations and require them to run up millions of dollars in legal fees.

    Likewise, if he managed to place sufficiently zealous allies in the Office of Legal Counsel, Trump could obtain legal authority for any number of otherwise lawless transgressions. Vice President Dick Cheney did that in the George W. Bush administration, inducing the OLC to issue opinions that authorized torture and warrantless domestic surveillance. Those opinions were later repudiated, but they guided policy for years. Trump’s history suggests that he might seek comparable legal blessing for the use of lethal force at the southern border, deployment of federal troops against political demonstrators, federal seizure of state voting machines, or deferral of the next election in order to stay in power. He would be limited only by the willingness of Congress, the Supreme Court, and the career civil service to say no.

    It occurred to me, as I interviewed government veterans and legal scholars, that they might be blinkered by their own expertise when they try to anticipate what Trump would do. All of the abuses they foresee are based on the ostensibly lawful powers of the president, even if they amount to gross ruptures of legal norms and boundaries. What transgressions could he commit, that is, within the law?

    But Trump himself isn’t thinking that way. On Truth Social, in December 2022, he posted that righting a wrong of sufficient “magnitude” (in this case, his fictitious claim of election fraud) “allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution.”

    The “take Care” clause of the Constitution calls for the president to see that laws are carried out faithfully. But what if a court rules against Trump and he simply refuses to comply? It’s not obvious who would—or could—enforce the ruling.


    This article appears in the January/February 2024 print edition with the headline “Trump Will Get Away With It.”

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    Barton Gellman

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  • The Threat to Democracy Is Coming From Inside the U.S. House

    The Threat to Democracy Is Coming From Inside the U.S. House

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    Representative Jim Jordan may or may not break down the last few Republican holdouts who blocked his election as House speaker yesterday. But the fact that about 90 percent of the House GOP conference voted to place him in the chamber’s top job marks an ominous milestone in the Republican Party’s reconfiguration since Donald Trump’s emergence as its central figure.

    The preponderant majority of House Republicans backing Jordan is attempting to elevate someone who not only defended former President Trump’s efforts to subvert the 2020 presidential election but participated in them more extensively than any other member of Congress, according to the bipartisan committee that investigated the January 6 insurrection. As former Republican Representative Liz Cheney, who was the vice chair of that committee, said earlier this month: “Jim Jordan knew more about what Donald Trump had planned for January 6 than any other member of the House of Representatives.”

    Jordan’s rise, like Trump’s own commanding lead in the 2024 GOP presidential race, provides more evidence that for the first time since the Civil War, the dominant faction in one of America’s two major parties is no longer committed to the principles of democracy as the U.S. has known them. That means the nation now faces the possibility of sustained threats to the tradition of free and fair elections, with Trump’s own antidemocratic tendencies not only tolerated but amplified by his allies across the party.

    Ian Bassin, the executive director of the bipartisan group Protect Democracy, told me that the American constitutional system “is not built to withstand” a demagogue capturing “an entire political party” and installing “his loyalists in key positions in the other branches of government.” That dynamic, he told me, “would likely mean our 247-year-old republic won’t live to celebrate 250.” And yet, he continued, “those developments are precisely what we’re witnessing play out before our eyes.”

    Sarah Longwell, the founder of the anti-Trump Republican Accountability Project, told me that whether or not Jordan steamrolls the last holdouts, his strength in the race reflects the position inside the party of the forces allied with Trump. “Even if he doesn’t make it, because the majorities are so slim, you can’t argue that Jim Jordan doesn’t represent the median Republican today,” she told me.

    Longwell said House Republicans have sent an especially clear signal by predominantly rallying around Jordan, who actively enlisted in Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election, so soon after they exiled Cheney, who denounced them and then was soundly defeated in a GOP primary last year. “Nominating Jim Jordan to be speaker is not them acquiescing to antidemocratic forces; it is them fully embracing antidemocratic forces,” she said. “The contrast between Jim Jordan potentially ascending to speaker and Liz Cheney, who is out of the Republican Party and excommunicated, could not be a starker statement of what the party stands for.”

    In one sense, Jordan’s advance to the brink of the speakership only extends the pattern that has played out within the GOP since Trump became a national candidate in 2015. Each time the party has had an opportunity to distance itself from Trump, it has roared past the exit ramp and reaffirmed its commitment. At each moment of crisis for him, the handful of Republicans who condemned his behavior were swamped by his fervid supporters until resistance in the party crumbled.

    Even against that backdrop, the breadth of Republican support for Jordan as speaker is still a striking statement. As the January 6 committee’s final report showed, Jordan participated in virtually every element of Trump’s campaign to subvert the 2020 result. Jordan spoke at “Stop the Steal” rallies, spread baseless conspiracy theories through television appearances and social media, urged Trump not to concede, demanded congressional investigations into nonexistent election fraud, and participated in multiple White House strategy sessions on how to pressure Vice President Mike Pence to reject the results.

    Given that record, “‘undermining the election’ is too soft a language” to describe Jordan’s activities in 2020, Jena Griswold, Colorado’s Democratic secretary of state, told me. “He was involved in every step to try to destroy American democracy and the peaceful transfer of the presidency.” If Jordan wins the position, she said, “you could no longer count on the speaker of the House to defend the United States Constitution.”

    Jordan didn’t stop his service to Trump once he left office. Since the GOP won control of the House last year, Jordan has used his role as chair of the House Judiciary Committee to launch investigations into each of the prosecutors who have indicted Trump on criminal charges (local district attorneys in Manhattan and Fulton County, Georgia, as well as federal Special Counsel Jack Smith). Fani Willis, the Fulton County district attorney, has described Jordan’s demand for information as an effort “to obstruct a Georgia criminal proceeding” that is “flagrantly at odds with the Constitution.”

    The willingness of most GOP House members to embrace Jordan as speaker, even as he offers such unconditional support to Trump, sends the same message about the party’s balance of power as the former president’s own dominant position in the 2024 Republican race. Though some Republican voters clearly remain resistant to nominating Trump again, his support in national surveys usually exceeds the total vote for all of his rivals combined.

    Equally telling is that rather than criticizing Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election, almost all of his rivals have echoed his claim that the indictments he’s facing over his actions are unfair and politically motivated. In the same vein, hardly any of the Republican members resisting Jordan have even remotely suggested that his role in Trump’s attempts to subvert the election is a legitimate reason to oppose him. That silence from Jordan’s critics speaks loudly to the reluctance in all corners of the GOP to cross Trump.

    “If Jordan becomes speaker, it would really mean the complete and total takeover of the party by Trump,” former Republican Representative Charlie Dent, now the executive director of the Aspen Institute’s congressional program, told me. “Because he is the closest thing Trump has to a wingman in Congress.”

    All of this crystallizes the growing tendency at every level of the GOP, encompassing voters and activists as well as donors and elected officials, to normalize and whitewash Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election. In an Economist/YouGov national poll earlier this year, fully three-fifths of Trump 2020 voters said those who stormed the Capitol on January 6 were participating “in legitimate political discourse,” and only about one-fifth said they were part of a violent insurrection. Only about one-fifth of Trump 2020 voters thought he bore a significant share of responsibility for the January 6 attack; more than seven in 10 thought he carried little or no responsibility.

    That sentiment has solidified in the GOP partly because of a self-reinforcing cycle, Longwell believes. Because most Republican voters do not believe that Trump acted inappropriately after 2020, she said, candidates can’t win a primary by denouncing him, but because so few elected officials criticize his actions, “the more normal elements of the party become convinced it’s not an issue or it’s not worth objecting to.”

    The flip side is that for the minority of House Republicans in highly competitive districts—18 in seats that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 and another 15 or so in districts that only narrowly preferred Trump—Jordan could be a heavy burden to carry as speaker. “Everyone is worried about their primary opponents, but in this case ameliorating the primary pressures by endorsing Jordan could spell political death in the general election in a competitive district,” Dent told me. Even so, 12 of the 18 House Republicans in districts that Biden carried voted for Jordan on his first ballot as a measure of their reluctance to challenge the party’s MAGA forces.

    The instinct for self-preservation among a handful of Republican members combined with ongoing resentment at the role of the far right in ousting Kevin McCarthy might be enough to keep Jordan just below the majority he needs for election as speaker; many Republicans expect him to fail again in a second vote scheduled for this morning. Yet even if Jordan falls short, it’s his ascent that captures the shift in the party’s balance of power toward Trump’s MAGA movement.

    Bassin, of Protect Democracy, points to a disturbing analogy for what is happening in the GOP as Trump surges and Jordan climbs. “When you look at the historical case studies to determine which countries survive autocratic challenges and which succumb to them,” Bassin told me, a key determinant is “whether the country’s mainstream parties unite with their traditional opponents to block the extremists from power.”

    Over the years, he said, that kind of alliance has mobilized against autocratic movements in countries including the Czech Republic, France, Finland, and, most recently, Poland, where the center-right joined with its opponents on the left to topple the antidemocratic Law and Justice party. The chilling counterexample, Bassin noted, is that during the period between World War I and World War II, “center-right parties in Germany and Italy chose a different course.” Rather than directly opposing the emerging fascist movements in each country, they opted “instead to try to ride the energy of [the] far-right extremists to power, thinking that once there, they could easily sideline [their] leaders.”

    That was, of course, a historic miscalculation that led to the destruction of democracy in each country. But, Bassin said, “right now, terrifyingly, the American Republican Party is following the German and Italian path.” The belligerent Jordan may face just enough personal and ideological opposition to stop him, but whether or not he becomes speaker, his rise captures the currents carrying the Trump-era GOP ever further from America’s democratic traditions.

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    Ronald Brownstein

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  • Rosencrantz and Guildenstern at the Republican Debate

    Rosencrantz and Guildenstern at the Republican Debate

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    In their first presidential debate last night, Republicans staged their own version of Tom Stoppard’s classic play Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead.

    Stoppard’s story focuses on the titular two characters, who are minor figures in Hamlet. The playwright recounts the Hamlet story from their peripheral perspective, as Rosencrantz and Guildenstern wait and wander, distant from the real action. For much of the play’s three acts, they strain for even glimpses of the man at the center of the tale, Prince Hamlet.

    The eight GOP candidates onstage last night often seemed like Rosencrantz and Guildenstern, with their words largely stripped of meaning by the absence of the central protagonist in their drama.

    The debate had plenty of heat, flashes of genuine anger, and revealing policy disputes. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who has often seemed a secondary player in this race, delivered a forceful performance—particularly in rebutting the entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy on policy toward Ukraine—that made her the most vivid figure onstage to many Republicans.

    But all that sound and fury fundamentally lacked relevance to the central story in the GOP race: whether anyone can dent former President Donald Trump’s massive lead over the field. At times, it seemed as if the other candidates had lost sight of the fact that it is Trump, not the motormouthed Ramaswamy, who is 40 points or more ahead of all of them in national polls.

    “Trump is the big winner,” the Republican consultant Alex Conant told me after the debate. “Nobody made an argument about why they would be a better nominee than Donald Trump. They didn’t even begin to make that argument.”

    There were plausible reasons the candidates focused so little on the man they are trying to overtake. The Fox News moderators did not ask specifically about Trump’s legal troubles until an hour into the debate, instead focusing on discussions about the economy, climate change, and abortion. Ramaswamy seemed to be daring the other candidates to smack him down by repeatedly attacking not only their policies but their motivations. “I’m the only person on this stage who isn’t bought and paid for,” he insisted at one point. Loud booing from the audience almost anytime someone criticized Trump may also have discouraged anyone from targeting him too often.

    But it was more than the debate’s immediate circumstances that explained the field’s decision to minimize direct confrontation with Trump. That choice merely extended the strategy most have followed throughout this campaign, which in turn has replicated the deferential approach most of Trump’s rivals took during the 2016 race.

    Haley took the most direct shot at the former president on policy, criticizing him from the right for increasing the national debt so much during his tenure; Florida Governor Ron DeSantis jabbed Trump too—though not by name—for supporting lockdowns early in the pandemic. Yet these exchanges were overshadowed by the refusal of any of the contenders, apart from former Governors Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, to object to Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election or his role in sparking the January 6 insurrection. All of them except Hutchinson and Christie raised their hand to indicate they would support Trump as the GOP presidential nominee even if he is convicted of a crime before the election.

    To Conant, all of this seemed reminiscent of the 2016 campaign, when Trump’s rivals seemed reluctant to attack him in the hope that he would somehow collapse on his own. “Their strategy is wrong,” Conant said. “He’s going to be the nominee unless somebody can capture the support of Republicans who are open to an alternative. And nobody even tried to do that tonight.”

    David Kochel, an Iowa-based Republican consultant, wasn’t as critical. But he agreed that the field displayed little urgency about its biggest imperative: dislodging from Trump some of the voters now swelling his big lead in the polls. “What this race needs is to start focusing in on [the question of] ‘Trump or the future, which is it?’” Kochel told me. “I’m not sure we saw enough of that” last night.

    The failure to more directly address the elephant in the room, or what Bret Baier, a co-moderator, called “the elephant not in the room,” undoubtedly muted the debate’s potential impact on the race. Nonetheless, the evening might provide a tailwind to some of the contenders, and a headwind to others.

    The consensus among Republicans I spoke with after the debate was that Haley made a more compelling impression than the other seven candidates onstage. Her best moment came when she lacerated Ramaswamy for calling to end U.S. support to Ukraine, a move she said would essentially surrender the country to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “You are choosing a murderer over a pro-American country,” she told Ramaswamy. “You have no foreign-policy experience, and it shows.”

    The debate “lifted Nikki Haley as one of the prime alternatives for the people who are worried that Trump carries too much baggage to get elected,” the veteran GOP pollster Whit Ayres told me last night. “She gutted Ramaswamy.”

    Ramaswamy forced himself into the center of the conversation for much of the night, making unequivocal conservative declarations such as “The climate agenda is a hoax,” and categorical attacks on the rest of the candidates as corrupt career politicians.

    Yet the evening showed why he may not advance any further than other outsider candidates in earlier GOP races, like Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann in 2012. His choice to emulate Trump as an agent of chaos surely thrilled the GOP voters most alienated from the party leadership. But Ramaswamy’s disruptive behavior and tendency toward absolutist positions that he could not effectively defend seemed likely to lower his ultimate ceiling of support. He appeared to simultaneously deepen but narrow his potential audience.

    Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina also had a difficult night, though less by commission than omission. In his first turn on such a big stage, he simply failed to make much of an imprint; the evening underscored the limitations of his campaign message beyond his personal story of rising from poverty. “I forgot he was even there,” Kochel said. “Maybe nice guys finish last; I don’t know. He disappeared.”

    Former Vice President Mike Pence, by contrast, was as animated as he’s been in a public forum. That was true both when he was making the case for an almost pre-Trumpian policy agenda that reprised priorities associated with Ronald Reagan and when he was defending his actions on January 6.

    DeSantis, who seemed slightly overcaffeinated at the outset, didn’t disappear, but he didn’t fill Trump’s shoes as the focal point of the debate either. The other candidates devoted little effort to criticizing or contrasting with him. To Conant, that was a sign they consider him a fading ember: “No reason to risk losing a back-and-forth with a dead man,” Conant said. Others thought that although DeSantis did not stand out, he didn’t make any mistakes and may have succeeded in reminding more conservative voters why they liked him so much before his unsteady first months as a presidential candidate.

    Christie in turn may have connected effectively with the relatively thin slice of GOP voters irrevocably hostile to Trump. That may constitute only 10 to 15 percent of the GOP electorate nationally, but it represents much more than that in New Hampshire, where Christie could prove formidable, Ayres told me.

    But it won’t matter much which candidate slightly improved, or diminished, their position if they all remain so far behind Trump. Ayres believes materially weakening Trump in the GOP race may be beyond the capacity of any of his rivals; the only force that might bring him back within their reach, Ayres told me, is if his trial for trying to overturn the 2020 election commences before the voting advances too far next year and damages his image among more Republican voters.

    In a Republican context, Ayres said, “The only institutions that have the ability to bring him back to Earth are not political institutions; they are judicial institutions.”

    Kochel, who attended the debate, pointed out that the loud disapproval from the crowd at any mention of Trump’s legal troubles accurately reflected the desire of most GOP voters to bury the issue. “A lot of the base right now collectively has their hands up over their ears and are going ‘La-la-la,’” Kochel said. The problem for the party, though, is that while Republican partisans may not want to deal with the electoral implications of nominating a candidate facing 91 criminal charges, “general-election voters are going to deliver a verdict on all of this even if a jury doesn’t.”

    Apart from Christie and Hutchinson, the candidates on the stage seemed no more eager than the audience to address Trump’s actions. While all of them agreed Pence did the right thing on January 6 by refusing Trump’s demands to reject the election results, none except those two and Pence himself suggested Trump did something wrong in pressuring his vice president. Nor did the others find fault in anything else Trump did to subvert the 2020 result.

    The final act of Stoppard’s play finds Rosencrantz and Guildenstern drifting toward a doom that neither understands, nor can summon the will to escape. In their caution and timidity, the Republicans distantly chasing Trump don’t look much different.

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    Ronald Brownstein

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  • Magical Thinking in Milwaukee

    Magical Thinking in Milwaukee

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    One couldn’t help but pity the dutiful campaign staffers and surrogates who trickled into the spin room in Milwaukee last night. They arrived with an unenviable task: to convince reporters that their respective candidates had won the first debate of the Republican presidential primary.

    To anyone who had watched, it was plain, of course, that none of the eight Republicans onstage had won in any meaningful sense. Donald Trump—facing four indictments and leading in the polls by 40 points—didn’t even bother to show up. And with many voters tuning in to the race for the first time, Trump’s rivals struggled to show they were equipped to take him down. In fact, few even tried. The former president’s name barely came up in the debate’s first hour—and when the conversation did turn to the subject of his growing rap sheet, most of the candidates defended him. All but two pledged to support Trump as the party’s nominee even if he is convicted. By the end of the evening, Trump’s path to renomination looked clearer than ever.

    So how to spin this state of affairs if you work for one of the also-rans?

    The answer, it turned out, was simple: Ignore it.

    In multiple interviews after last night’s debate, I asked GOP campaign representatives how they planned to win the primary if their candidates were unwilling to directly confront Trump. Some offered platitudes—“This is a marathon, not a sprint.” Others gestured vaguely at plans to criticize the front-runner in the future. Most flatly refused to acknowledge the reality of Trump’s current dominance in the race. They preferred to pretend.

    Representative Chip Roy of Texas, a supporter of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, scoffed when I mentioned Trump’s lead in the polls. “Go back and look at where Ted [Cruz] was in the numbers in 2016,” Roy instructed me.

    “But … Cruz didn’t win the primary,” I replied, confused.

    “Well, but he won Iowa!”

    Matt Gorman, a spokesperson for Senator Tim Scott’s campaign, complained that reporters and pundits were overstating the likelihood of another Trump nomination. “Too many people think it’s inevitable,” he said. But when asked how that outcome might be avoided, Gorman had only wishful thinking to offer: “We hope that [Trump] debates. That’s our hope.”

    It’s easy to see why, in an ideal world, Trump’s rivals would want to get him back on the debate stage. Several of the candidates managed strong moments last night. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley earned loud applause after calling out Republicans in Washington for adding trillions of dollars to the national debt: “Our kids are never going to forgive us for this.” Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie offered a passionate defense of former Vice President Mike Pence for refusing to go along with Trump’s ploy to overturn the 2020 election on January 6, 2021: “He deserves not grudging credit. He deserves our thanks as Americans for putting his oath of office and the Constitution of the United States before personal, political, and unfair pressure.” And the 38-year-old entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy successfully made himself the evening’s main character with a rat-a-tat of Trumpian talking points, one-liners, and comic insults that aggravated his opponents as the debate wore on.

    Some of the debate’s sharpest moments came when the candidates were tangling with Ramaswamy. Christie derided him as an “amateur” who “sounds like ChatGPT.” Haley, a former ambassador to the United Nations, snapped at him, “You have no foreign-policy experience, and it shows.” Even Pence, who typically affects the manner of a sleepy Sunday-school teacher, seemed to repeatedly lose his cool with Ramaswamy. “Now is not the time for on-the-job training,” Pence said at one point. “We don’t need to bring in a rookie.” (This counts as a harsh burn for Pence.)

    On social media and in the press room, theories abounded as to why Ramaswamy seemed to be getting under so many of his opponents’ skin. Maybe it was generational—the know-it-all Millennial with the irritating high-school-debate patter disrespecting his Boomer elders. Or maybe it was his “Ted Cruz energy”—that signature blend of arrogance and smarminess that seems calibrated to repel. Certainly it didn’t help that Ramaswamy insisted on dismissing his opponents as “super-PAC puppets.”

    But perhaps the onstage hostility had less to do with Ramaswamy than with that other blustery political neophyte who cartwheeled into GOP politics one day on a whim and promptly overshadowed the rest of the field. With Trump refusing to participate in the debates, Ramaswamy made for a serviceable proxy. (Certainly, his campaign seems to share Trump’s taste for trolling: When I asked Chris Grant, a Ramaswamy adviser, about Pence’s repeated outbursts at the candidate last night, Grant laughed and then giddily compared the former vice president to the grandpa on The Simpsons yelling at a cloud.) Still, sinking Ramaswamy—who currently polls in the high single digits—won’t meaningfully change the shape of the field. The only way to pull that off is to take votes away from the front-runner. And no one seems to have a clear plan to do that.

    Back in January, I wrote about the “magical thinking” that pervaded the GOP ahead of 2024. Virtually everyone in the party I talked with—donors, strategists, elected officials—wanted to move on from Trump, but no one was willing to do anything about it. Instead, they all seemed to be waiting for the problem to resolve itself, whether via criminal charges or death or some other miraculous development. “There is a desire for deus ex machina,” one GOP consultant told me at the time. “It’s like 2016 all over again, only more fatalistic.”

    Seven months later, on a debate stage in Milwaukee, we witnessed the natural consequence of this attitude. Trump—still alive—is gliding toward his third consecutive presidential nomination while his rivals squabble with one another.

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    McKay Coppins

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  • Trump Organization’s Criminal Trial For Tax Fraud Starts—Here Are The Consequences It Could Face

    Trump Organization’s Criminal Trial For Tax Fraud Starts—Here Are The Consequences It Could Face

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    Topline

    Jury selection begins Monday in the Trump Organization’s criminal trial for alleged tax fraud—which will only result in the company having to pay monetary damages if it’s found guilty, though a conviction could have more damaging knock-on effects for former President Donald Trump’s business.

    Key Facts

    The Trump Organization is on trial after being indicted on charges of criminal tax fraud, scheme to defraud, conspiracy and falsifying business records, with Manhattan prosecutors alleging the company “devised and operated a scheme to defraud” tax authorities by paying executives through gifts and other “off the books” compensation.

    Weisselberg has already pleaded guilty to the scheme, through which he allegedly received approximately $1.76 million in indirect compensation between 2005 and 2021, but no other Trump Organization executives—including Trump or his family members—have been directly implicated in the criminal case.

    If found guilty, the Trump Organization will only have to pay a maximum of approximately $1.6 million in fines, which CNN notes is the highest amount allowed under state law for this kind of crime.

    A conviction would not result in any further direct consequences to the Trump Organization, including the dissolution of the company.

    It could make it less likely that creditors or other business partners will be willing to work with the Trump Organization, however, legal experts cited by Bloomberg and NBC News noted, and Brooklyn Law School professor Miriam Baer told Reuters the trial alone “casts a pall of uncertainty over the company” that could affect its future business deals.

    Legal experts cited by Insider also note a conviction could persuade the federal government to stop doing business with the Trump Organization—such as Secret Service agents being charged to stay at Trump properties—citing federal regulations that allow government contractors to be “debarred” if they’ve committed crimes like tax evasion or falsification of records.

    Crucial Quote

    “Is it definitive that a company convicted of a crime will be shunned by lenders and creditors? Not necessarily,” attorney Daniel Horwitz, a former prosecutor at the Manhattan district attorney’s office that brought the charges, told Bloomberg. “Is it a good thing if the Trump Organization is convicted of cheating the government of millions of dollars in taxes over the years? No, it’s not good.”

    What To Watch For

    Jury selection in the case is expected to last for approximately two weeks, Law360 reports, as attorneys in the case try to weed out potential jurors who have a strong political bias against Trump. The trial itself will then take approximately five to six weeks, New York State Judge Juan Merchan said ahead of jury selection Monday, which will include testimony from Weisselberg on the alleged tax fraud scheme.

    Chief Critic

    The Trump Organization has pleaded not guilty to the charges against it, and attorneys representing the company at trial told the New York Law Journal they’ll argue that even though Weisselberg pleaded guilty, there’s “no evidence” to show the company itself did anything wrong. “Our defense has always been that these corporate entities are not liable for things that employees do behind the corporation’s back,” attorney Michael van der Veen told the Journal. “The corporation received no benefit from the tax crimes.”

    Key Background

    The Trump Organization and Weisselberg were indicted in July 2021 following a years-long investigation by the Manhattan District Attorney’s office into the company’s financials. (That investigation has so far not resulted in any other charges.) The indictment alleges the Trump Organization paid for Weisselberg’s Manhattan apartment, private school tuition for his family members and leases for Mercedes Benz vehicles for him and his wife, among other methods of indirect compensation, and the Trump Organization allegedly fraudulently misreported income to both Weisselberg and other unnamed executives to avoid paying higher taxes. Weisselberg pleaded guilty to the charges against him in August and will now serve only up to five months in prison, avoiding a potential 15-year sentence if he had been found guilty at trial. CNN reports the Trump Organization’s trial comes after the company and the Manhattan DA’s office discussed a possible plea deal a few weeks ago, which didn’t come to fruition. According to sources cited by CNN, the Trump Organization was only willing to plead guilty to committing a misdemeanor while the DA’s office wanted them to plead guilty to felony charges, and Trump himself was unwilling to let the company make any guilty pleas at all.

    What We Don’t Know

    What other punishments Trump and his company may face outside of this trial. New York Attorney General Letitia James has separately sued the Trump Organization, Trump, his children and other business associates for allegedly fraudulently inflating the company’s assets. That case could have much more significant impacts for the Trump Organization if they lose in court, including having its business certificates canceled in New York, Trump and his children being barred from leading New York businesses and a heftier $250 million fine. While that litigation is a civil lawsuit, James said her office has also found evidence Trump and his business violated criminal laws, including federal ones, and has thus referred its findings to the Justice Department and Internal Revenue Service. That means it’s possible Trump could be prosecuted in federal court as well. The former president is also facing multiple investigations from the Justice Department over him bringing White House documents back to Mar-A-Lago and his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, and prosecutors in Fulton County, Georgia, are also separately probing Trump’s post-election scheme.

    Further Reading

    Trump Org. criminal tax fraud trial kicks off Monday (CNN)

    How a conviction in Trump Org’s upcoming trial could bar Trump from federal contracts, even for Secret Service (Insider)

    Trump Firm’s Tax Fraud Trial Promises Ex-CFO as Star Witness (Bloomberg)

    5 Takeaways From The Trump Organization’s Indictment (Forbes)

    Allen Weisselberg—Longtime Trump Organization CFO—Pleads Guilty In Tax Scheme (Forbes)

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    Alison Durkee, Forbes Staff

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  • The Inevitable Indictment of Donald Trump

    The Inevitable Indictment of Donald Trump

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    As an appellate judge, Merrick Garland was known for constructing narrow decisions that achieved consensus without creating extraneous controversy. As a government attorney, he was known for his zealous adherence to the letter of the law. As a person, he is a smaller-than-life figure, a dry conversationalist, studious listener, something close to the opposite of a raconteur. As a driver, his friends say, he is maddeningly slow and almost comically fastidious.

    And as the nation’s chief law-enforcement officer, he is a hyper-prudential institutionalist who would like nothing more than to restore—quietly and deliberately—the Justice Department’s reputation for probity, process, and apolitical dispassion. Which is why it is so difficult for me to imagine him delighting in the choice he now faces: whether to become the first attorney general in American history to indict a former president.

    But this is what I believe he is preparing himself to do.

    I have been observing Garland closely for months. I’ve talked to his closest friends and most loyal former clerks and deputies. I’ve carefully studied his record. I’ve interviewed Garland himself. And I’ve reached the conclusion that his devotion to procedure, his belief in the rule of law, and in particular his reverence for the duties, responsibilities, and traditions of the U.S. Department of Justice will cause him to make the most monumental decision an attorney general can make.

    Let me be absolutely clear: Garland did not tell me he was going to indict Donald Trump. In fact, he did not tip his hand to me in any way—he is far too cautious to signal his intentions to even his closest friends, much less a reporter. Nor did his top aides suggest the announcement of an indictment. When his department says that it doesn’t discuss ongoing cases, it means it—at least in this case.

    Before I lay out the reasons I believe I am correct in this assessment, I want to discuss why it is entirely possible I am not. The main reason to disbelieve the argument that Garland is preparing to indict is simple: To bring criminal charges against a former president from an opposing political party would be the ultimate test of a system that aspires to impartiality, and Garland, by disposition, is repelled by drama, and doesn’t believe the department should be subjected to unnecessary stress tests. This unprecedented act would inevitably be used to justify a cycle of reprisals, and risks turning the Justice Department into an instrument of never-ending political warfare.

    And an indictment, of course, would merely be the first step—a prelude to a trial unlike any this country has ever seen. The defendant wouldn’t just be an ex-president; in all likelihood, he’d be a candidate actively campaigning to return to the White House. Fairness dictates that the system regard Trump as it does every other defendant. But doing so would lead to the impression that he’s being deliberately hamstrung—and humiliated—by his political rivals.

    Garland is surely aware that this essential problem would be evident at the first hearing. If the Justice Department is intent on proving that nobody is above the law, it could impose the same constraints on Trump that it would on any criminal defendant accused of serious crimes, including limiting his travel. Such a restriction would deprive Trump of one of his most important political advantages: his ability to whip up his followers at far-flung rallies.

    In any event, once the trial began, Trump would be stuck in court, likely in Florida (if he’s charged in connection with the Mar-a-Lago documents matter) or in Washington, D.C. (if he’s charged for his involvement in the events of January 6). The site of a Washington trial would be the Prettyman Courthouse, on Constitution Avenue, just a short walk from the Capitol. This fact terrified the former prosecutors and other experts I talked with about how the trial might play out. Right-wing politicians, including Trump himself, have intimated violence if he is indicted.

    Trump would of course attempt to make the proceedings a carnival of grievance, a venue for broadcasting conspiracy theories about his enemies. The trial could thus supply a climactic flash point for an era of political violence. Like the Capitol on January 6, the courthouse could become a magnet for paramilitaries. With protesters and counterprotesters descending on the same locale, the occasion would tempt street warfare.

    The prospect of such a spectacle fills Merrick Garland with dread, his friends say. Indeed, for much of his tenure he’s been attacked by critics who claim he lacks the fortitude to meet the moment, or to take on an adversary like Trump. Members of the House committee charged with examining the events of January 6 have publicly taunted Garland for moving tentatively when compared to their own aggressive and impeccably stage-managed hearings. Representative Adam Schiff has complained, “I think there’s a real desire on the part of the attorney general, for the most part, not to look backward.” Privately, even President Joe Biden has grumbled about the plodding pace of Garland’s investigations.

    But I believe, if the evidence of wrongdoing is as convincing as it seems, he is going to indict Trump anyway.

    Over the course of my reporting, I came to appreciate that the qualities that strike Garland’s critics as liabilities would make him uniquely suited to overseeing Trump’s prosecution. The fact that he is strangely out of step with the times—that he is one of the few Americans in public life who don’t channel or perform political anger—equips him to craft the strongest, most fair-minded case, a case that a neutral observer would regard as legitimate.

    United States v. Donald Trump would be about more than punishing crimes—whether inciting an insurrection, scheming to undermine an election, or absconding with classified documents. An indictment would be a signal to Trump, as well as to would-be imitators, that no one is above the law. This is the principle that has animated Garland’s career, which began as the Justice Department was attempting to reassert its independence, and legitimacy, after the ugly meddling of the Nixon years. If Garland has at times seemed daunted by the historic nature of the moment, that is at least in part because he appreciates how closely his next move will be studied, and the role it will play in heading off—or not—the next catastrophe.

    I have also come to see that the Garland of 2022 is not the same man who was sworn into office as attorney general in March of the previous year. At the age of 69, his temperament is firmly fixed, but a year and a half on the job has transformed him.

    It was just a few months ago that I saw a different version of the attorney general begin to emerge. While his investigation of January 6 continued at its slow pace, his sparring with Trump over the documents at Mar-a-Lago escalated quickly. The former president is no longer a figure on television, but his adversary in court. Garland approached him with an aggression that suggested he was prepared to do the very thing that critics said he didn’t have the guts to do.

    The Merrick Garland who took over the Justice Department may have hoped he could restore its reputation without confronting Trump, or dragging him to a courtroom. But the nation has changed in the intervening months, and so has he.

    President Barack Obama’s announcement for his Supreme Court nomination is shown on a TV in an empty Senate Radio TV studio on March 16, 2016, on Capitol Hill, in Washington, D.C. (Alex Wong / Getty)

    Before he became attorney general, Merrick Garland’s life was defined by a job he has never held.

    Twice, Barack Obama considered lifting him from the D.C. Circuit onto the Supreme Court, and twice Obama passed him over. After those failed attempts to move beyond the short list, Garland seemed to age out of the possibility, past the point where the actuarial tables suggest that an appointment is a worthwhile investment. Then, in 2016, Antonin Scalia died; Garland got his nomination after all—only to see it scuttled in the Senate by the obstructionist tactics of Mitch McConnell.

    When Garland returned to the Court of Appeals after his nomination was blocked, he was greeted with an ovation from his colleagues. No doubt it was heartwarming, but the truth was that he was returning to an old routine after having been taunted with the job of his dreams. It would have only been human for his mind to ponder a fresh start.

    In the fall of 2020, with polls showing Joe Biden primed to defeat Donald Trump, friends began asking, Would you ever want to be attorney general?

    When Garland’s name showed up on the list of Biden’s potential AGs, it was fair to assume that he hoped the job would nudge the Supreme Court debacle out of the first paragraph of his obituary. But Garland told friends that he wanted to return to the Justice Department, where he’d worked as a young lawyer and first found his sense of professional purpose, to restore an institution that he revered. It had been damaged by a succession of Trump appointees, who carried out the policy of separating migrant children from their parents, distorted the findings of Robert Mueller’s investigation, and allegedly brought cases in order to settle the president’s political scores.

    As Garland prepared to take the job, he often sounded nostalgic for his first stint at DOJ, in the final years of the Carter administration, when he worked as a special assistant to Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti. Nobody thinks of the late ’70s as the height of idealism, but that’s how Garland remembers the time.

    In the aftermath of Watergate, he sat by Civiletti’s side as he continued the work of reforming the Justice Department: writing new rules and procedures to prevent another president from ever abusing the institution. They were preserving the rule of law by bubble-wrapping it in norms, so that it would be thoroughly insulated from political pressure.

    This June, I visited Garland in his wood-paneled office, one of the cozier rooms in DOJ’s cavernous building. He wore a navy suit that looked as if it had been purchased at Brooks Brothers in 1985. A tray of coffee with demitasses was laid out on a coffee table, but he sipped from a mug.

    As Garland spoke about his approach to his job, he asked an aide to pass him a copy of a tattered blue book that was sitting on a side table, Principles of Federal Prosecution, published during his time with Civiletti. He kept extolling the neutrality of the department, how it should never favor friends or penalize foes, how it should only bring cases that persuade juries and survive appeals. “What I’m saying isn’t novel,” he said. “It’s all in here.”

    Thumbing through the document, he seemed briefly distracted. I asked him if he’d had anything to do with its publication. “I helped edit it,” he said, and then wistfully recalled his mentors in the department who oversaw its production. It struck me that Garland isn’t just by-the-book. In some profound sense, he is the book.

    This unbending fidelity to rules and norms has often looked impotent in the face of the democratic emergency that is Donald Trump. In his quest to avoid the taint of politics, Garland allowed certain Trump-era policies to remain in place. He ordered the DOJ to continue defending Trump against a defamation lawsuit filed by E. Jean Carroll, a writer who accused him of raping her. He has permitted the Special Prosecutor John Durham’s investigation of the origins of Russiagate to persist, despite a raft of Democrats clamoring for him to shut it down. (I should note here that Durham mentioned my reporting on Trump and Russia in court filings, and his lawyers asked witnesses about it in his prosecution of a Clinton campaign lawyer, whom a jury acquitted.) Those flash points created an impression of passivity; instead of rushing to confront the legacy of Trumpism, he seemed to be meekly deferring to it.

    It is not difficult to see why anti-Trump partisans could grow frustrated with Garland’s obdurate commitment to the traditions of the department when Trump is so intent on trampling them. His faith in them feels antiquated—and detached from the Democratic Party’s broad reconsideration of norms that were once seen as pillars of the American system. Not so long ago, expanding the number of justices on the Supreme Court or eliminating the filibuster seemed like subversive thought experiments. Now they are touted as necessities for preserving majoritarian politics.

    But the post-Watergate reforms that Garland wants to defend weren’t aimed at abstract threats. They emerged as responses to very real abuse committed within living memory. And they arguably did an effective job at blunting Donald Trump’s desire to turn the Justice Department into his plaything, even if they couldn’t prevent every transgression. Norms held and prevented nightmare scenarios from unfolding.

    These norms may not hold the next time, but that doesn’t obviate their ethical power. No matter how much one fears Trump, the prosecution of a former president can’t be undertaken lightly. The expectation that political enemies will be treated fairly is the basis for the legitimacy of the entire legal system. That’s why Garland’s hand-wringing and fussiness matter. Any indictment he brings against Trump will have survived his scrutiny, which means that it will have cleared a high bar.

    Picture of Jamie Gorelick, Deputy Attorney General, taking a meeting with Amy Jeffries, left, Counsel to D.A.G., and Merrick Garland, Principle Assistant to the D.A.G., right, in her office at the Justice Department. Photograph taken in September 1995  (Photo by Bill O'Leary/The The Washington Post via Getty Images)
    Deputy Attorney General Jamie Gorelick takes a meeting with Amy Jeffries (left), counsel to the DAG, and Merrick Garland (right), principal associate DAG, in her office at the Justice Department, in September 1995. (Bill O’Leary / The Washington Post / Getty)

    When Garland talks about how he handles complex, emotionally fraught investigations, there’s a historical antecedent that he likes to cite as his formative experience. On the morning of April 19, 1995, the Department of Justice’s leadership learned that a bomb had destroyed much of a massive federal office building in Oklahoma City, ripping off its facade and killing 168 people, including 19 children in the building’s day-care center.

    At the time, Garland held a job known as the PADAG, or the principal associate deputy attorney general. It’s a mystifying title, but one of the most prized offices in the department: It afforded him a seat in the attorney general’s morning meeting and access to DOJ’s most closely held secrets. Garland used his privileged position to ask if he could travel to Oklahoma City to oversee the investigation.

    Before Garland left, Attorney General Janet Reno pulled him aside. Of all things, she wanted to talk about O. J. Simpson. The football star’s trial was going to be running on a split screen alongside the Oklahoma City investigation. Everything the public was about to witness in a Los Angeles courtroom would make the justice system look like a tawdry joke. She told Garland that his job was to show how the legal system could be the antithesis of that circus.

    “I want you to be meticulous,” she told him. “I don’t want to have any chance of losing a conviction. I want this to be picture perfect, so that the public understands what justice is.”

    The bombing case triggered a strong emotional reaction across America, particularly those who feared the emergence of right-wing militias. Although much more straightforward than the chaotic events of January 6, the crime ignited a similarly intense desire to quickly punish the perpetrators. But Garland vowed to Reno that he would take the long way around.

    Paying strict attention to procedure came naturally to Garland, even when the FBI seemed inclined to take shortcuts. He ordered agents to obtain warrants and subpoenas from courts even when they weren’t unambiguously necessary. In his quest for immaculate justice, his investigators conducted 28,000 interviews.

    These decisions arguably made the prosecution’s case harder and certainly delayed the gratification of a conviction. But they also guarded against humiliating slipups that might have provided the basis for an appeal. In the end, Timothy McVeigh’s attempt to overturn his conviction failed and he was executed in 2001. His co-conspirator Terry Nichols was sentenced to life, a sentence that an Appeals court affirmed.

    Garland has taken a similarly meticulous approach to Trump. Rather than starting with the offenses of the president himself, the department has devoted its resources to tediously building cases against every gym teacher and accountant who breached the Capitol on January 6, some 900 indictments in total. The volume of cases has risked overtaxing prosecutors—and pushing back the work of building more-complicated cases against Trump’s inner circle.

    But what looks like donkeywork is a necessary step in a formulaic approach, a set of prescribed practices that have their own embedded wisdom. As Garland explains it, the department has no choice but to begin with the most “overt crimes,” and slowly build from there. To start with Trump would have reeked of politics—and it would have been bad practice, forgoing all the witnesses and cellphone data collected by starting at the bottom.

    By focusing on Trump, Garland’s critics tend to underestimate the importance of the other arms of the January 6 prosecutions. The Justice Department has made an example of the foot soldiers of the insurrection, and has thus deflated attendance at every subsequent “Stop the Steal” rally. Evidence supplied by the minnows who invaded the Capitol helped the Justice Department indict leaders of the Oath Keepers (Elmer Stewart Rhodes) and Proud Boys (Henry “Enrique” Tarrio) on charges of seditious conspiracy, the most meaningful steps that the government has taken to dismantle the nation’s right-wing paramilitaries. (Both men have pleaded not guilty.)

    Based on subpoenas and the witnesses seen exiting the grand jury, the department is clearly moving up the ladder, getting ever closer to Trump’s inner circle and to Trump himself. But there comes a moment when the rule book that Garland reveres ceases to provide such clear guidance. That’s the juncture that allows for prosecutorial discretion. In the case of Donald Trump, the prosecutor is Merrick Garland and discretion would allow him to decide that an indictment is simply not worth the social cost, or that the case is strong but not strong enough. Garland’s critics fret that when confronted with this moment, his penchant for caution will take hold.

    Over the course of his career, institutions were good to Merrick Garland—and he was good to institutions. He was a true believer in the American system. That’s why he struggled to come to terms with the reality of Mitch McConnell.

    For 293 days after Obama announced his selection to fill Scalia’s seat, Garland was trapped in limbo, waiting for Senate Republicans to provide him a fair hearing. The whole world knew that they never would; Garland remained patient. One of his old teachers from Harvard Law School, Laurence Tribe, told me, “What was heartbreaking was to see that the system really wasn’t as good as he hoped it was.”

    The human response to McConnell’s brazen tactics was rage. Garland’s wife and daughters certainly channeled that emotion, as did his friends and former clerks. The people around Garland couldn’t contain their fury, but he did. When friends would call to vent, he would try to comfort them, to tamp down their ire. “Don’t feel too sorry for me,” he told them. “I’ve had a great run. Don’t worry.”

    Such placidity wasn’t anomalous. He was always the calm one, his friend Jamie Gorelick told me. Ever since college, he had counseled her to not let emotions roil her. Back then, she was enraged that Harvard gave free football tickets to men, not women. After a contentious meeting where she railed against the injustice, he took her aside: “You’re right to be upset, but you shouldn’t be this upset. Over time, this will get fixed.” Gorelick valued his circumspection so highly that she hired him to serve as her deputy in the Clinton Justice Department. Even then, his advice was the same. He encouraged her to put angry letters she wrote in a drawer, until she restored her sense of equilibrium.

    This tendency could be described as repression. The theologian Reinhold Niebuhr had another name for it. He called it the “spiritual discipline against resentment,” a phrase from his theory of political persuasion. He urged victims of injustice to resist the self-defeating instinct to righteously trumpet their own victimhood. That’s not a personal credo for Garland, or anything like it. But with his preternatural self-control and his sense of rectitude, he seems to regard anger, especially on his own behalf, as a dangerous emotion.

    This can make him seem out of step with the zeitgeist, which is defined by rage. On January 7, 2021, when Joe Biden unveiled him as his nominee, he seemed strangely detached from the depredations of the previous day, which he referred to only once, as “yesterday’s events in Washington.” He argued that the insurrection showed that “the rule of law is not just some lawyer’s turn of phrase.” Even accounting for Garland’s tendency to overthink his choice of words, his conclusion felt like a massive underreaction.

    With the investigation of Trump, the legitimacy of the judicial system is at risk. Of course, the MAGA set will never regard an indictment of their leader as anything other than a sham. But the perceptions of the rest of the country matter too. And it’s important that, if DOJ moves forward with an indictment, the public views it as the product of a scrupulous examination of facts, not the impulse for revenge. Indicting the candidate of the opposing party, if it occurs, should feel reluctant, as if there’s no other choice.

    Picture of Merrick Garland being sworn in during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., the United States, Feb. 22, 2021.
    The attorney-general nominee Merrick Garland is sworn in during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., on February 22, 2021. (Al Drago / The New York Times / Redux)

    It’s hard not to think of Garland as a character from another time. When I suggested this to him, he protested, jokingly (I think), citing a marker of cool highly significant to males in their 60s. “You know, I was there at the Bruce Springsteen concert in 1974, the one Jon Landau wrote about in his famous column in The Real Paper. ‘I’ve seen the future of rock and roll.’”

    When he was on the bench, Garland would occasionally orient new clerks to his idiosyncrasies by playing a song by the band Vampire Weekend which contains the refrain, “Who gives a fuck about an Oxford comma?” It was amusing because the band was so distant from his range of expected cultural references, and because the strait-laced attorney general would never utter that sentence himself. It was also funny because Garland does care about punctuation, deeply.

    Garland likes everything in its place. When, as a judge, he asked his clerks to prepare reading material, they would comb through it with a ruler in hand. The margins needed to be just so, with space for them to draw lines next to matters of import. A single line drawn parallel meant the clerks had material worthy of his attention; a triple line signaled the crux of the argument. When he found methods that worked, he clung to them. He may have been the last American to use WordPerfect.

    Garland took office as attorney general with old-fashioned ideas about what was possible. He told his aides that he hoped he might help lower the temperature in the nation. He believed that he could use the department to restore a measure of civility that seemed to slip away during the Trump years.

    One of the exhilarations of the new job was the sense of agency it offered. As a judge, he couldn’t pick and choose the matters that came across his desk. The docket was the docket. Now he could get exercised about an article in the morning newspaper, walk into his 9 a.m. meeting with deputies, and then insist that the department do something about it.

    Every day, Garland kept encountering stories about appalling instances of harassment, a national epidemic of rudeness and rage. Flight attendants risked physical assault for asking passengers to wear masks. School-board officials received death threats. Police officers were harangued for doing their job.

    Garland wanted to make an example of such behavior. The department began to aggressively prosecute illegal threats of violence, seeking stiff penalties for the sake of deterrence. But to his dismay, these efforts proved ineffective. No matter how many cases he brought, the DOJ couldn’t staunch the flood of invective. There was something profoundly wrong with the national culture, a dyspepsia that undermined the possibilities for collective coexistence and healthy democratic practice.

    This year, as he came to understand the limitations of the job—all the broken facets of American life that the department is incapable of repairing—he began to appreciate the depths of the nation’s crisis. His public comments began to betray a sense of alarm. In May, he returned to Harvard to deliver a commencement address, issuing a grim report on the health of democracy. The historic metaphor he used to capture the urgency of the moment was the Justice Department’s founding in 1870, when its task was crushing the nascent Ku Klux Klan. Although the speech had grace notes of hope—the rousing calls to service that are de rigueur for the genre—it was hard to avoid its underlying pessimism, his warning that “there may be worse to come.”

    At one point during my June visit, I called Garland an “institutionalist,” which I thought was an unobjectionable description of his political temperament. Upon hearing this, he turned to his aides, “I don’t think I’ve ever used the word to describe myself.” If I wanted, they would check, he said. But he was certain he had never uttered it.

    I was surprised he would resist the term. I think he wanted me to understand that he is alive to the perils facing democracy—and isn’t naive about what it will take to defeat them. Norms alone are not enough to stop a determined authoritarian. It wasn’t quite a reversal in his thinking; radicalizing Merrick Garland would be impossible. But it was an evolution. His faith in institutions had begun to wobble.

    With his optimism bruised, and his heightened sensitivity to the imminent threats to democracy, he’s shown a greater appetite for confrontation. There is no sharper example of this than his willingness to spar with Trump over the sensitive documents stashed at Mar-a-Lago. Searching the home of a former president is unprecedented. The warrant was executed knowing that Trump would demagogue the event—and that he might even encourage his supporters to respond violently.

    With Trump, Garland has lately shown a pugnacity that few had previously associated with him. When Trump began to assail the search of Mar-a-Lago, Garland asked the court to unseal the inventory of seized documents, essentially calling out the ex-president’s lies. Rather than passively watching attacks on FBI agents, whom Trump scurrilously accused of planting evidence, Garland passionately backed the bureau. As Trump’s lawyers have tried to use a sympathetic judge to slow down the department’s investigation, Garland’s lawyers have responded with bluntly dismissive briefs, composed without the least hint of deference. (“Plaintiff again implies that he could have declassified the records before leaving office. As before, however, Plaintiff conspicuously fails to represent, much less show, that he actually took that step.”)

    The filings can be read as a serialized narrative, with each installment adding fresh details about Trump’s mishandling of documents and his misleading of investigators. On August 31, the department tucked a photo into a brief, showing classified documents arrayed across a Mar-a-Lago carpet. This was both a faithful cataloging of evidence and sly gamesmanship. Garland permitted the department to release an image sure to implant itself in the public’s mind and define the news cycle. Lawfare described the entirety of that filing as “a show of force.”

    In the Mar-a-Lago case, Garland is facing Trump in court for the first time. He arguably dillydallied on his way to the fight. But now that he’s entered it, he’s battling as if the reputation of the DOJ depends on winning it. During our interview, Garland reminded me that he was once a prosecutor himself. The unstated implication was that he knows what it takes to prevail.

    There’s a date on the calendar when excessive meticulousness potentially precludes holding Trump to account. On January 20, 2025, Merrick Garland might not have a job. His post could be occupied by an avatar of the hard right. And any plausible Republican president will drop the case against Donald Trump on their first day in office.

    The deadline for indicting Trump is actually much sooner than the next Inauguration Day. According to most prosecutors, a judge would give Trump nearly a year to prepare for trial, maybe a bit longer. That’s not special treatment; it’s just how courts schedule big cases.

    If Trump is indicted for his role on January 6, he might get even more time than that, given the volume of evidence that the Justice Department would pass along in discovery. And if the evidence includes classified documents, the court will need to sort out how to handle that, another source of delay.

    Depending on the charges, a trial itself could take another week—or as long as six months. That means Garland has until the late spring of 2023 to bring an indictment that has a chance of culminating in a jury verdict before the change of administration.

    The excruciating conundrum that Garland faces is also a liberating one. He can’t win politically. He will either antagonize the right or disappoint the left. Whatever he decides, he will become deeply unpopular. He will unavoidably damage the reputation of the institution he loves so dearly with a significant portion of the populace.

    Faced with so unpalatable a choice, he doesn’t really have one. Because he can’t avoid tearing America further apart, he’ll decide based on the evidence—and on whether that evidence can persuade a jury. As someone who has an almost metaphysical belief in the rule book, he can allow himself to apply his canonical texts.

    That’s what he’s tried to emphatically explain over the past months. Every time he’s asked about the former president, he responds, “No one is above the law.” He clearly gets frustrated that his answer fails to satisfy his doubters. I believe that his indictment of Trump will prove that he means it.

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    Franklin Foer

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