Fifth Third Buys Comerica for $10.9B in Year’s Biggest Bank Deal. Which Firms Might Be Next.
Tag: Comerica Inc
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These regional banks are at greatest risk of being taken over by rivals, according to KBW
A customer enters Comerica Inc. Bank headquarters in Dallas, Texas.
Cooper Neill | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A trio of regional banks face increasing pressure on returns and profitability that makes them potential targets for acquisition by a larger rival, according to KBW analysts.
Banks with between $80 billion and $120 billion in assets are in a tough spot, says Christopher McGratty of KBW. That’s because this group has the lowest structural returns among banks with at least $10 billion in assets, putting them in the position of needing to grow larger to help pay for coming regulations — or struggling for years.
Of eight banks in that zone, Comerica, Zions and First Horizon might ultimately be acquired by more profitable competitors, McGratty said in a Nov. 19 research note.
Zions and First Horizon declined comment. Comerica didn’t immediately have a response to this article.
While two others in the cohort, Western Alliance and Webster Financial, have “earned the right to remain independent” with above-peer returns, they could also consider selling themselves, the analyst said.
The remaining lenders, including East West Bank, Popular Bank and New York Community Bank each have higher returns and could end up as acquirers rather than targets. KBW estimated banks’ long-term returns including the impact of coming regulations.
“Our analysis leads us to these conclusions,” McGratty said in an interview last week. “Not every bank is as profitable as others and there are scale demands you have to keep in mind.”
Banking regulators have proposed a sweeping set of changes after higher interest rates and deposit runs triggered the collapse of three midsized banks this year. The moves broadly take measures that applied to the biggest global banks down to the level of institutions with at least $100 billion in assets, increasing their compliance and funding costs.
Invesco KBW Regional Bank ETF
While shares of regional banks have dropped 21% this year, per the KBW Regional Banking Index, they have climbed in recent weeks as concerns around inflation have abated. The sector is still weighed down by concerns over the impact of new rules and the risk of a recession on loan losses, particularly in commercial real estate.
Given the new rules, banks will eventually cluster in three groups to optimize their profitability, according to the KBW analysis: above $120 billion in assets, $50 to $80 billion in assets, and $20 to $50 billion in assets. Banks smaller than $10 billion in assets have advantages tied to debit card revenue, meaning that smaller institutions should grow to at least $20 billion in assets to offset their loss.
The problem for banks with $80 billion to $90 billion in assets like Zions and Comerica is that the market assumes they will soon face the burdens of being $100 billion-asset banks, compressing their valuations, McGratty said.
On the other hand, larger banks with strong returns including Huntington, Fifth Third, M&T and Regions Financial are positioned to grow through acquiring smaller lenders, McGratty said.
While others were more bullish, KBW analysts downgraded the U.S. banking industry in late 2022, months before the regional banking crisis. KBW is also known for helping determine the composition of indexes that track the banking industry.
Banks are waiting for clarity on regulations and interest rates before they will pursue deals, but consolidation has been a consistent theme for the industry, McGratty said.
“We’ve seen it throughout banking history; when there’s lines in the sand around certain sizes of assets, banks figure out the rules,” he said. “There’s still too many banks and they can be more successful if they build scale.”
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Bank earnings kick off with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo amid concerns about rising rates, bad loans
Jamie Dimon, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., gestures as he speaks during an interview with Reuters in Miami, Florida, U.S., February 8, 2023.
Marco Bello | Reuters
American banks are closing out another quarter in which interest rates surged, reviving concerns about shrinking margins and rising loan losses — though some analysts see a silver lining to the industry’s woes.
Just as they did during the March regional banking crisis, higher rates are expected to lead to a jump in losses on banks’ bond portfolios and contribute to funding pressures as institutions are forced to pay higher rates for deposits.
KBW analysts Christopher McGratty and David Konrad estimate banks’ per-share earnings fell 18% in the third quarter as lending margins compressed and loan demand sank on higher borrowing costs.
“The fundamental outlook is hard near term; revenues are declining, margins are declining, growth is slowing,” McGratty said in a phone interview.
Earnings season kicks off Friday with reports from JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo.
Bank stocks have been intertwined closely with the path of borrowing costs this year. The S&P 500 Banks index sank 9.3% in September on concerns sparked by a surprising surge in longer-term interest rates, especially the 10-year yield, which jumped 74 basis points in the quarter.
Rising yields mean the bonds owned by banks fall in value, creating unrealized losses that pressure capital levels. The dynamic caught midsized institutions including Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic off guard earlier this year, which — combined with deposit runs — led to government seizure of those banks.
Big banks have largely dodged concerns tied to underwater bonds, with the notable exception of Bank of America. The bank piled into low-yielding securities during the pandemic and had more than $100 billion in paper losses on bonds at midyear. The issue constrains the bank’s interest revenue and has made the lender the worst stock performer this year among the top six U.S. institutions.
Expectations on the impact of higher rates on banks’ balance sheets varied. Morgan Stanley analysts led by Betsy Graseck said in an October 2 note that the “estimated impact from the bond rout in 3Q is more than double” losses in the second quarter.
Hardest-hit banks
Bond losses will have the deepest impact on regional lenders including Comerica, Fifth Third Bank and KeyBank, the Morgan Stanley analysts said.
Still, others including KBW and UBS analysts said that other factors could soften the capital hit from higher rates for most of the industry.
“A lot will depend on the duration of their books,” Konrad said in an interview, referring to whether banks owned shorter or longer-term bonds. “I think the bond marks will look similar to last quarter, which is still a capital headwind, but that there’ll be a smaller group of banks that are hit more because of what they own.”
There’s also concern that higher interest rates will result in ballooning losses in commercial real estate and industrial loans.
“We expect loan loss provisions to increase materially compared to the third quarter of 2022 as we expect banks to build up loan loss reserves,” RBC analyst Gerard Cassidy wrote in a Oct. 2 note.
Silver linings
Still, bank stocks are primed for a short squeeze during earnings season because hedge funds placed bets on a return of the chaos from March, when regional banks saw an exodus of deposits, UBS analyst Erika Najarian wrote in an Oct. 9 note.
“The combination of short interest above March 2023 levels and a short thesis from macro investors that higher rates will drive another liquidity crisis makes us think the sector is set up for a potentially volatile short squeeze,” Najarian wrote.
Banks will probably show stability in deposit levels in the quarter, according to Goldman Sachs analysts led by Richard Ramsden. That, and guidance on net interest income in the fourth quarter and beyond, could support some banks, said the analysts, who are bullish on JPMorgan and Wells Fargo.
Perhaps because bank stocks have been so beaten down and expectations are low, the industry is due for a relief rally, said McGratty.
“People are looking ahead to, where is the trough in revenue?” McGratty said. “If you think about the last nine months, the first quarter was really hard. The second quarter was challenging, but not as bad, and the third will be still tough, but again, not getting worse.”
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These regional banks are at risk of being booted from the S&P 500
A customer enters Comerica Inc. Bank headquarters in Dallas, Texas.
Cooper Neill | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The stock sell-off that hit regional banks this year has exposed lenders including Zions and Comerica to the risk of being delisted from the Standard & Poor’s 500 index.
The banks, each with market capitalizations of around $5 billion, were the fourth- and sixth-smallest members of the 500 company listing as of this week, according to FactSet.
That leaves the companies in a similar position to Lincoln National, which got shunted from the S&P 500 last month and placed into a small-cap index. Blackstone, the world’s largest alternative asset manager, took Lincoln National’s spot.
This year’s regional banking crisis has already caused changes in the composition of the S&P 500, the most popular broad measure of large American companies in the investing world. Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic were removed from the benchmark after deposit runs led to their government seizure. More changes may be coming, especially if the industry faces a protracted slump, according to analysts.
“It’s absolutely a risk,” Chris Marinac, research director at Janney Montgomery Scott, said in an interview. “If the market were to further change the valuation of these companies, especially if we have higher rates, I wouldn’t rule it out.”
Banks begin disclosing third-quarter results Friday, led by JPMorgan Chase. Investors are keen to hear how rising interest rates affected bond holdings and deposits in the period.
Companies that no longer qualify as large-cap stocks are at heightened risk of demotion from the S&P 500. There were seven members valued at $6 billion or less at the end of August. Two of them were removed the following month: insurer Lincoln National and consumer firm Newell Brands.
Those that join the benchmark often celebrate the milestone. The popularity of mutual funds and ETFs based on the index means that new members typically see an immediate boost to their stock price. Those that get demoted can suffer declines as fewer money managers need to own shares in the companies.
S&P guidelines
To be considered for inclusion in the S&P 500, companies need to have a market capitalization of at least $14.5 billion and meet profitability and trading standards.
Members that violate “one or more of the eligibility criteria for the S&P Composite 1500 may be deleted from the respective component index at the Index Committee’s discretion,” according to S&P Dow Jones Indices’ methodology.
Still, that doesn’t mean Zions or Comerica are on the cusp of a delisting. The committee that decides the composition of the S&P 500 looks to minimize churn and accurately represent reference sectors, making changes only when “ongoing conditions warrant an index change,” according to S&P.
Shares of regional banks ZIons and Comerica have tumbled this year.
For instance, after the onset of the Covid pandemic in March 2020, many retail S&P 500 companies temporarily violated the profitability rule, but that didn’t result in widespread demotions, according to a person who has studied the S&P 500 index.
S&P Dow Jones Indices declined to comment for this article, as did Comerica. Zion’s didn’t immediately return a message seeking comment.
Besides Zions and Comerica, KeyCorp and Citizens Financial are the only other S&P 500 banks with market caps below the threshold for inclusion in the index, according to an Aug. 31 Piper Sandler note. KeyCorp and Citizens, however, each have market caps of greater than $10 billion, making them less likely to be impacted than smaller banks.
After Blackstone became the first major alternative asset manager to join the S&P 500 last month, analysts said that peers including KKR and Apollo Global may be next, and they would likely replace other financial names. KKR and Apollo each have market capitalizations of greater than $50 billion.
“Perhaps more demotions of low-market cap financials are to come,” Wells Fargo analyst Finian O’Shea said in a Sept. 5 research note.
– CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes contributed to this article.
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PacWest stock jumps 80% as regional banks rebound on Friday, but still down sharply for the week
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), May 3, 2023.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
PacWest’s stock was rebounding on Friday.
However, Friday’s rally made only a small dent in the week-to-date losses. PacWest still finished the week down 43% and below its closing level from Wednesday. The bank confirmed this week that it is exploring strategic options.
Western Alliance, which said it is not seeking a sale, has also been under heavy pressure this week, falling 27% even after Friday’s rally. The KRE finished the week down about 10%.
The steep declines, which came even at banks that reported much smaller deposit outflows than First Republic, led Wall Street analysts to warn that the stocks have become detached from their fundamentals.
“We are arguably reaching a point of hysteria,” Fundstrat strategist Tom Lee said in a note to clients on Friday.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase upgraded Western Alliance, Zions and Comerica to overweight on Friday, saying the bank stocks “appear substantially mispriced to us.”
This week’s slide came after First Republic was seized by regulators and sold to JPMorgan Chase before the market opened on Monday. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, among others, have said this week that they think the stage of banking crisis caused by deposit outflows is largely over, but the fall for the stocks shows investors are less confident.
Many on Wall Street are looking to Washington for regulatory changes to calm the banking system, such as potentially expanding deposit insurance rules. Some have raised the possibility of temporarily banning short-selling on bank stocks. Former Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chair Sheila Bair told CNBC’s “The Exchange” on Thursday that some of the share price declines are likely being driven by short-selling.
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10 dividend stocks yielding at least 4.5% that are rated ‘buy’ by most analysts
During a period of high interest rates, it might be more difficult to impress investors with dividend stocks. But the stocks can have an important advantage over the long term. The dividend payouts can increase over the years, helping to push share prices higher over time.
When considering stocks for dividend income, yield shouldn’t be the only thing you consider. If a stock’s price has tumbled because investors are worried about the company’s business prospects, the dividend yield might be very high. A double-digit yield might mean investors expect to see a cut to the dividend soon.
There are many ways to look at companies’ expected ability to maintain or raise their dividend payouts. But one can also take a simple approach to begin researching stock choices.
At the moment, you can get a bank CD with a yield of close to 5% pretty easily. Here’s a look at current yields for CDs and U.S. Treasury securities and an approach for laddering them not only to protect your cash but to hedge against interest-rate risk.
For investors who would rather aim for long-term growth to go along with dividend income, or take a relatively conservative approach to growth while reinvesting dividends, a screen of stocks in the S&P 500
SPX,
+0.33%
produces only 10 stocks with dividend yields of 4.5% or higher with majority “buy” or equivalent ratings among analysts polled by FactSet. Here they are, sorted by dividend yield:Company Ticker Dividend Yield Expected payout increase through 2025 Share “buy” ratings April 16 price Consensus price target implied 12-month upside potential Comerica Inc. CMA,
+4.00% 6.56% 10% 58% $43.30 $60.53 40% Citizens Financial Group Inc. CFG,
+4.19% 5.77% 12% 74% $29.10 $39.29 35% Healthpeak Properties Inc. PEAK,
+2.33% 5.71% 9% 60% $21.01 $27.69 32% Hasbro Inc. HAS,
+1.28% 5.34% 8% 69% $52.40 $69.27 32% Philip Morris International Inc. PM,
+0.46% 5.11% 11% 67% $99.48 $113.56 14% Realty Income Corp. O,
+1.30% 5.04% 7% 56% $60.77 $70.00 15% Fifth Third Bancorp FITB,
+3.33% 4.99% 3% 72% $26.44 $34.55 31% VICI Properties Inc. VICI,
+1.58% 4.82% 12% 95% $32.35 $37.73 17% Organon & Co. OGN,
+1.01% 4.71% 5% 55% $23.80 $31.89 34% Iron Mountain Inc. IRM,
+0.82% 4.69% 15% 78% $52.76 $56.00 6% Source: FactSet Click on the ticker for more about each company.
Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.
The dividend yields for this group of 10 companies are based on current annual regular payout rates, with all paying quarterly except for Realty Income Corp.
O,
+1.30% ,
which pays monthly.These two oil and natural gas producers would have passed the above screen based on their most recent dividend payments and analysts’ sentiment, however, they pay a combined fixed-plus-variable dividend every quarter, with the fixed portion relatively low:
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Shares of Pioneer Natural Resources Co.
PXD,
-0.77%
closed at $230 on April 14. Among analysts polled by FactSet, 59% rate the stock a “buy” or the equivalent, and the consensus price target is $257.42. The company pays a fixed quarterly dividend of $1.10 a share, which would make for a dividend yield of only 1.91%. However, the most recent variable quarterly dividend was $4.48 a share, for a combined quarterly dividend of $5.58, which would translate to an annualized dividend yield of 9.70%. The consensus estimate for dividends in 2025 is $4.63 — the analysts are only estimating the fixed portion of the dividend. Pioneer has held preliminary merger discussions with Exxon Corp.
XOM,
-1.16% ,
according to a Wall Street Journal report. -
Devon Energy Corp.’s
DVN,
-0.72%
stock closed at $55.70 on April 14. The shares are rated “buy” or the equivalent by 55% of analysts and the consensus price target is $67.66. The fixed portion of Devon’s quarterly dividend is 20 cents a share, for an annualized dividend yield of 1.44%. The variable portion of the most recent quarterly dividend was 69 cents a share. The total payout of 89 cents would make for an annual dividend yield of 6.39%. Analysts expect the fixed portion of annual dividends to total $3.61 in 2025, according to FactSet.
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Shares of Pioneer Natural Resources Co.
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First Republic and Western Alliance pace big rebound in regional-bank stocks after huge losses
Shares of regional banks posted big gains on Tuesday as they regained their footing after huge losses in the previous session, but volatility continued in the sector following the demise of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Silvergate Capital in the past week.
While the rise in some cases is eye-popping, most stocks have yet to recover fully from losses in the past few days. Most stocks are trading well below their levels from a week ago, even with Tuesday’s gains.
Among…
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Western Alliance and First Republic clobbered as regional bank jitters persist despite Fed backstops
Trading in shares of First Republic Bank and Western Alliance Bancorp ended sharply lower in a tough day of trading for regional banks as fears over bank solvency persisted following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Silvergate Capital.
Stocks were periodically halted or paused for trading amid the bank stock bloodbath, which saw many suffering percentage declines well into the double digits. Typically, bank stocks are stable compared with sectors such as technology, with daily moves above 5% being relatively…
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S&P 500, Nasdaq post worst day in month after strong data fuels worry about Fed rate hikes
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes recorded their worst day in almost a month on Monday, after a hotter-than-expected U.S. services-sector reading fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to be even more aggressive in its inflation battle.
How stocks traded
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.26%
finished down 482.78 points, or 1.4%, at 33,947.10. -
The S&P 500
SPX,
-1.79%
ended 72.86 points lower, or 1.8%, at 3,998.84. -
The Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-11.01%
closed down 221.56 points, or 1.9%, at 11,239.94. - Those were the largest declines for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite since Nov. 9, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Stocks finished mixed on Friday, although they clinched gains last week, following a robust November jobs report, which stoked fears that inflation might not be so easily defeated.
What drove markets
Strong wage growth numbers released Friday were followed up on Monday by a robust reading for the U.S. services sector — both of which helped to stoke fears that the Fed’s interest-rate hikes, along with the central bank’s modest balance-sheet unwind, haven’t had much of an impact on the tight labor market.
The ISM barometer of U.S. business conditions in the service sector came in stronger than expected, rising to 56.5% in November, a healthy showing that signals the U.S. economy is still expanding at a steady pace.
“If nothing else, the ISM services report is being interpreted as very strong, and thus the economy is overheating and that means more Fed tightening,” said Will Compernolle, a senior economist at FHN Financial in New York. “Consumer resilience has proven to be more intense than I would have expected. In the two most interest-rate sensitive sectors — housing and autos — tightening has channeled into markets in meaningful ways.”
But there has been so much pent-up demand, that higher interest rates haven’t been cooling overall spending as much as the Fed would like because companies are still having to fill a backlog of orders, he said via phone.
In other economic data, the final November S&P Global U.S. services PMI edged up to 46.2 from 46.1, but remained in contractionary territory.
November jobs data released on Friday showed average hourly wages grew over the past year by more than 5% as of November, beating economists’ expectations and stoking concerns that robust wage growth would continue to fuel inflation, market strategists said.
Worries about a more-aggressive Fed also helped to drive Treasury yields higher, adding to the pressure on stocks. The yield on the 10-year note rose 9.6 basis points to 3.6% on Monday. Treasury yields move inversely to prices, and yields had fallen sharply over the past month, driven by shifting expectations about the pace of Fed rate hikes.
Monday’s ISM services figure “surprised to the upside, suggesting that the economy is still running above its long-run sustainable path and that the Fed is going to have to slow the economy more than expected in 2023,” Bill Adams, the Dallas-based chief economist for Comerica Inc. CMA, said via phone.
In other markets news, signs that China’s government is easing its COVID restrictions helped Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index
HSI,
+4.51%
finish with a 4.5% gain.See also: Chinese ADRs and casino operators rally on signs of easing COVID
Meanwhile, oil futures ended lower on Monday, a day after Sunday’s decision by OPEC and its allies to keep production quotas unchanged.
Falling equity prices helped drive the CBOE Volatility Index
VIX,
+8.87% ,
also known as the VIX, back above 20 on Monday. The volatility gauge had fallen sharply in recent weeks as stocks rallied, potentially signaling complacency that could ultimately hurt stocks, said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, in a note to clients.Companies in focus
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Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
-6.37%
shares finished 6.4% lower after reports of a looming production cut at its factory in Shanghai, though the electric-vehicle manufacturer denied the reports. -
GameStop Corp.‘s Class A shares
GME,
-7.12%
ended down by 7.1% ahead of the company’s third-quarter results, which are set to be released after the market closes on Wednesday. Analysts are looking for a narrowing loss from the videogame retailer. -
Shares of U.S. airlines and aircraft makers traded higher on Monday, bucking the broader trend in stocks. Boeing Co.
BA,
+1.22%
and United Airlines Holdings Inc.
UAL,
+2.60%
were among the best performers in the S&P 500, finishing up by 1.2% and 2.6%, respectively. -
Shares of Salesforce, Inc.
CRM,
-7.35%
ended down by 7.4% after the company confirmed its CEO Stewart Butterfield is leaving the company following Bret Taylor, the co-CEO, who departs at the end of January.
––Jamie Chisholm contributed reporting to this article.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average
