Why Goga Bitadze Is Likely Not A Rookie Extension Candidate For The Indiana Pacers

On Monday afternoon, there will be one more deadline for NBA clubs to monitor before the regular season starts this week. 2019 draftees and their teams have until 6 p.m. Eastern Time to agree to terms on a rookie scale contract extension.

Extensions for players on rookie scale deals must be negotiated before the final year of their contract. So while almost all 2019 first round picks are entering the fourth season of their original deal, they must agree to an extension before Monday afternoon. Otherwise, they will play out the 2022-23 campaign on an expiring contract.

If no extension is agreed to, the player would become a restricted free agent in the 2023 offseason should he receive a qualifying offer from his prior team. Any extensions that are agreed to, such as recent deals for Brandon Clarke and Jordan Poole, would kick in during the 2023-24 season.

The Indiana Pacers had the 18th pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, and they used it to select center Goga Bitadze. Bitadze, a 23-year old interior player, just wrapped up a preseason in which he averaged 7.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game. He led the team in three-point percentage (75%) and was third on the team in field goal percentage (64.3%) during the exhibitions.

“Rick [Carlisle, Pacers head coach], I have a lot of respect for him. Whenever he feels like I should play, I’m going to go out there and do 100%,” Bitadze said during the preseason. He is hoping to take a step forward this year. “That’s what I’ve got to do, just got to stay ready.”

The three-year pro is currently eligible for a rookie extension, and he will be until the deadline on Monday. However, between Bitadze’s career so far featuring inconsistent impact, the Pacers salary cap situation, and the risks outweighing the reward, it seems unlikely that Indiana and the Georgian big man will agree to terms on a longer contract.

Bitadze had the best season of his career in 2021-22, averaging 7.0 points and 3.5 rebounds per game. After the All-Star break, he elevated his game even further and averaged 11.8 points and 5.1 rebounds per game to close out the campaign. His defensive impact improved, and his general feel for the game was noticeably better than it was during his first two seasons — his positioning and awareness were no longer liabilities.

The bruising center showed important growth throughout the year, especially down the stretch. But the early portions of his season featured struggles and inconsistent play, which have been themes throughout his career. The Pacers had other bigs on the roster deserving of minutes, which made Bitadze’s role change often, but he struggled to string together consecutive good games until late January of his third season. Prior to that, his time in the pros featured inaccurate play finishing and timing miscues too often.

It’s difficult to take a long-term gamble on that resume. Sure, the Bitadze that played well for his final 15 appearances of 2022 is worth investing in, but that is too small of a sample for the Pacers to have any confidence that they are making a smart financial decision. With another good, growth-filled season, the Georgian big man would prove that he is worthy of another contract, perhaps even with the Pacers. But that information can’t be discovered until after the rookie scale extension deadline passes.

Another consideration for the Pacers in any negotiations with Bitadze is their salary cap situation. Indiana projects to have quite a bit of salary cap space next summer, even if they have Bitadze’s free agent cap hold on the books. Any extension for the center would likely start at a salary number that is below his cap hold — roughly $14 million, if he receives a qualifying offer — and that would technically free up some short-term cap space for the blue and gold.

But with so much cap space potentially available, freeing up a tiny bit more in order to sign Bitadze to a risky extension would be a poor use of funds. If Bitadze has another strong season and proves to be worth more than he is right now, Indiana should be happy to pay him if they want to keep him around. Using their salary cap space on a proven young talent is better business than making a risky investment a year in advance.

That is why the risks outweighs the possible reward for the Pacers in any potential Bitadze extension. He does not project to be a part of Indiana’s rotation to open the 2022-23 campaign, so committing funds to him now is a bet on growth that may not even be able to take place on the court during the coming season. If Indiana waits until the 2023 offseason to negotiate another contract with the young big man, they will have a better idea about the player he projects to be — and what role he could have on the blue and gold going forward.

Frontcourt players Myles Turner, Oshae Brissett, Terry Taylor, and James Johnson all currently have expiring contracts for Indiana, so there could be minutes available in the team’s rotation in 2023-24. If Bitadze plays well enough this coming season to earn some of them, then the Pacers should be content to pay him what he is worth as a restricted free agent, assuming he fits their play style. If he doesn’t prove to be a rotation-level player, then Indiana may look for center help elsewhere. The risk that Bitadze doesn’t grow much this season, and is thus overpaid when Indiana’s roster situation is in flux, is not worth taking on for the Pacers since the reward is just that they would save a few million bucks on his next contract. Flexibility is important, and it’s something that the Indiana front office values.

“Goga really made a couple shots that won the game for us,” Carlisle said this past Wednesday. “Ended up having two blocks. Played huge.” Bitadze finished with eight points in a Pacers comeback win.

Technically, Bitadze could receive a designated rookie extension, but those are typically reserved for All-Star talents on rookie deals. Assuming that is out of the question, the Pacers can extend Bitadze beyond the 2022-23 season with a contract that would be anywhere from one to four seasons in length and could start at anywhere from Bitadze’s minimum salary all the way up to 25% of the salary cap. Raises from year to year are limited to 8% of the first year salary of the extension.

Reserve big men such as Andre Drummond, Dewayne Dedmon, and Mike Muscala signed deals that were worth between $3-5 million in annual value this offseason. Can Bitadze grow into that level of player this season? Maybe. But there is little reason for the Pacers to bet that will happen and pursue an extension now instead of just signing the young center to a deserved contract in restricted free agency next offseason if he improves this coming campaign.

The flip side of the coin is Bitadze’s thinking. It’s hard to imagine he would be interested in a long-term deal with the blue and gold right now. Since being drafted, the Georgian big has been buried on the bench behind Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis, Isaiah Jackson and, on limited occasions, JaKarr Sampson. This season, it looks like Turner will be the Pacers starting five and Jackson will be his backup, with Jalen Smith getting some playing time at center as well.

Why would Bitadze rush to sign a long-term contract with a team that doesn’t even have a role for him? Turner has been in trade rumors all summer and is playing on an expiring contract, so there could be minutes in Indiana’s rotation in the future. But without knowing what the roster looks like or what the plans are in the frontcourt, Bitadze may want to wait on an extension and see if a better situation with more opportunity appears next offseason.

Generally, teams and players are both making a bet during rookie extension negotiations. Front offices are betting that they are getting their young player locked up on a contract that is fair at worst and an underpay at best. Players are betting that they are getting the most money that they could, even if they wait a year until restricted free agency, by signing a deal a full year in advance.

With Bitadze and the Pacers, it’s difficult to imagine either side takes that bet. If Bitadze’s market value is $3-5 million, then it’s almost impossible to write up a contract that would look favorable and still make sense for the young center to sign. And for Bitadze, what extension offer from Indiana will be there that won’t be obtainable one summer later from either the Pacers or another team? And what extension offer would make sense for Bitadze to sign without assurances of playing time?

With all these factors at play, it feels exceedingly unlikely that Goga Bitadze and the Indiana Pacers agree on a rookie scale extension. If Bitadze has a good season, the Pacers could be willing to pay him next offseason to be in their rotation going forward. If the center has an okay season, it may be beneficial for both sides to explore their options, both together and apart, in the 2023 summer. And if Bitadze has a bad year, the Pacers may not even want to keep him beyond the current campaign. All outcomes suggest that waiting is the best choice for both Indiana and Bitadze.

“Right now, I’m feeling good,” Bitadze said of his health situation last week. If he can turn in a healthy, impactful season, then the Pacers and Bitadze can negotiate a new contract next summer. But for now, Indiana and the young big man don’t have enough incentives to push hard for a rookie scale contract extension.