Russian President Vladimir Putin fueled fears that the war in Ukraine would escalate yet again this week after he made claims, without any evidence, that Ukraine is planning to use a “dirty bomb”—a statement that U.S. officials have speculated may lay the groundwork for Putin’s own attack.
Over the weekend, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told several Western defense ministers, including U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, that Ukraine was preparing to use a bomb designed to spread radioactive material. Putin repeated those unsubstantiated claims on Wednesday, and while experts disagree over whether Putin’s claims are indicative of his plans to detonate a dirty bomb himself, they agree that the recent statements are part of a broader strategy to help him win the war.
On Wednesday, Anders Aslund, a Swedish economist who has advised both the Russian and Ukrainian governments, cautioned that “every statement from the Kremlin is likely to be a lie” and that people should believe the opposite of whatever the Kremlin says. So, if Putin is accusing Ukraine of considering using a dirty bomb, it’s likely a cover-up for Putin’s plans to use his own dirty bomb in Ukraine—a possibility U.S. defense officials have floated.
The Biden administration has sharply rebutted Putin’s accusations against Ukraine, warning that the Kremlin’s allegations are a possible false flag operation and declaring that the U.S. would reject “any pretext for Russian escalation.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also called Russia’s bluff, saying Shoigu is spinning “stories about the so-called ‘dirty’ nuclear bomb.”
Sergei Karpukhin/Sputnik
Speaking to Newsweek, Michael Kimmage, who previously held the Russia/Ukraine portfolio on the State Department’s policy planning staff, agreed that Putin’s statements deserve immense skepticism. Since Putin intentionally uses these claims to obscure his real plans, the main goal of these accusations is to generate fear and confusion among the public, according to Kimmage.
That fear and confusion play into a bigger war strategy, according to Yuri Zhukov, a political science professor at the University of Michigan.
“The likely purpose [of the dirty bomb accusations], as with most Russian disinformation, is to undermine support for Ukraine,” Zhukov told Newsweek. “Russians are seeing cracks start to form in the western coalition supporting Ukraine, and are trying to exploit the situation.”
This tactic is one Moscow has relied on in the past. During the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin relied on accusations that Ukraine was building nuclear weapons to help justify the war to the Russian public. Using Zelensky’s remarks from a security conference in Munich earlier this year, Moscow spun his comments about Ukraine’s security assurances, which were granted in exchange for the forfeiture of Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, into an imminent nuclear threat.
Russia also made allegations that the U.S. is funding biolabs in Ukraine, without offering historical context that the labs are part of a larger program that began in 1991 and biolabs exist in Russia as well. Zhukov said the dirty bomb accusations can be seen as “an evolution of this information campaign.”
“One can easily compile a list of Russian warnings about false flags that never materialized,” he said.
The latest claims may even be viewed as more realistic than previous claims because a dirty bomb is much easier to develop than the nuclear weapons program or bioweapons that Russia has warned of in the past.
“Even if few foreign political and military officials will actually believe what the Russians are saying, members of the public might,” Zhukov said, adding that “a layperson is more likely to find this claim credible, especially if it’s being repeated constantly by the most senior officials.”
By generating confusion and playing on anxieties of a further escalation of the war in Ukraine, Putin is hoping to sway more of the West to oppose sending aid to Ukraine. If the Kremlin can mount enough fears that Ukraine is planning to detonate a dirty bomb—even if top U.S. and Ukrainian officials debunk those accusations—the claims will be something to latch onto as reasoning against funneling more money to a nation that is considering using such a weapon.
Ukraine’s ability to hold its own against Russia’s perceived military advantages has largely been due to international funding and weapons. Without the continuation of that aid, Ukraine could struggle against Russia’s forces, giving Putin the upper hand in the war.
