A slight uptick in unemployment in October is the one blemish on an otherwise strong employment picture for workers, according to the jobs report released on Nov. 4 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

A significant number of jobs were gained in October and wages remain up overall. And hiring was stronger in industries that previously lacked growth, including health care and manufacturing.

How many jobs were added in October?

The economy added 261,000 new jobs in October, a slight decline in gains compared with September (263,000).

What is the current unemployment rate?

The current unemployment rate is 3.7%. October’s unemployment rate was a 0.2 percentage point increase from September. The total number of unemployed rose by 306,000 from the previous month.

Is unemployment rising or falling?

The unemployment rate has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 3.5% and 3.7% since April.

How to calculate the unemployment rate

The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people by the number of people in the labor force. (The labor force is considered the sum of those who are currently working or looking for work.) The result is then multiplied by 100 to get a percentage:

Number of unemployed people / Labor force x 100 = X%, which is the unemployment rate

What is the labor force participation rate?

The labor force participation rate barely budged since last month: 62.2% in October compared with 62.3% in September. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population that is working or looking for work.

The rate is calculated as the labor force divided by the total population that’s eligible to work. (The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines the total population that’s eligible to work as the “civilian noninstitutional population,” which refers to people ages 16 and older who are not in military service or incarcerated.) The result is multiplied by 100 to get a percentage:

Labor force / Civilian noninstitutional population x 100 = X%, which is the labor force participation rate

Since October 2002, the labor force participation rate was lowest in April 2020 (60.2%) and highest in June 2003 (66.5%), according to BLS data.

How is the job market right now?

Two key indicators — job openings and quit rate — show that job seekers still have opportunities across fields. There were also few changes in layoffs reported among all employment sectors, with the rate changing little from previous months.

What does the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary report show?

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, or JOLTS, showed job openings remained strong, rising to 10.7 million in September after a one-month blip in August when openings dropped by more than 1 million.

The largest increase in job openings were found in accommodation; food services, health care and social assistance; and transportation, warehousing and utilities. Job openings are starting to decrease in wholesale trade as well as finance and insurance.

What is the quit rate?

The JOLTS report also showed the quit rate remained steady at 2.7% for the third straight month, which economists say is a key factor in the health of employment prospects since quitting shows that workers feel safe making a job switch.

Quit rates increased in state and local government jobs, which shows there may be more movement among workers in this sector. The inverse is likely true in three industries where quit rates decreased: construction; transportation, warehousing and utilities; and durable goods manufacturing.

Are wages increasing?

Wages are also strongly in workers’ favor: In another report released Oct. 28, the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that wages and salaries increased 5.1% over a one-year period ending in September 2022. In the year prior to that, ending September 2021, wages and salaries increased 4.2%.

Will unemployment rise?

While the overall employment picture looks rosy for now, multiple forecasts are predicting job losses in 2023. In September, the Federal Reserve projected unemployment would reach 4.4% next year. Bank of America, meanwhile, projects an even higher unemployment rate of 5.5%.

The Federal Open Market Committee raised its federal funds rate in November in an effort to bring down inflation, which is expected to eventually lead to a higher unemployment rate.

Jobs report: What is employment like in your field?

Workers wondering if it’s time to make a move in their jobs might want to consider what’s happening with employment in their industry.

Here’s what you need to know, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data over time:

Employed in October: 7,721,000.

% change since September: +0.01%.

% change since February 2020: +0.98%.

Employed in October: 3,859,100.

% change since September: +0.22%.

% change since February 2020: +0.55%.

Employed in October: 8,971,000.

% change since September: +0.03%.

% change since February 2020: +1.37%.

Employed in October: 22,350,000.

% change since September: +0.13%.

% change since February 2020: -1.87%.

Health care and social assistance

Employed in October: 20,872,800.

% change since September: +0.34%.

% change since February 2020: +0.58%.

Employed in October: 3,043,000.

% change since September: +0.13%.

% change since February 2020: +5%.

Employed in October: 15,886,000.

% change since September: +0.22%.

% change since February 2020: -5.85%.

Employed in October: 12,922,000.

% change since September: +0.25%.

% change since February 2020: +0.47%.

Employed in October: 634,000.

% change since September: No change.

% change since February 2020: -11.58%.

Professional and business services

Employed in October: 22,493,000.

% change since September: +0.17%.

% change since February 2020: +4.28%.

Employed in October: 15,829,100.

% change since September: +0.05%.

% change since February 2020: +1.08%.

Transportation and warehousing

Employed in October: 6,526,400.

% change since September: +0.13%.

% change since February 2020: +14.87%.

Employed in October: 5,923,100.

% change since September: +0.25%.

% change since February 2020: -0.22%.

When is the next jobs report?

The next jobs report will show November data and will be released on Dec. 2, 2022.

Anna Helhoski

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