Sometime around December 9-10, Russian forces mounted a major attack on the town of Velyka Novosilka in southern Ukraine. The Russian milblogger “Novorossiya Z.O.V.”, with 300,000 followers, reported the assault
The decision to attack in the Velyka Novosilka area looks potentially dangerous for the right flank of the Ukrainian grouping in the Donbass.
Back in the spring, Russian troops had a chance to wedge in this direction 15-20 km deeper, but it did not work out.
If success is achieved now, two important operational tasks will be solved:– access to the highway Zaporozhye – Donetsk, which is guaranteed to complicate the supply of the APU group;
– create a threat to the formation of the “Vuhledar pocket”, which will save Russian troops from a head-on attack on Vuhledar through uncomfortable terrain and will allow three combat-ready Ukrainian brigades to be taken into the operational “semi-ring”.
Exciting stuff for the pro-Russia crowd! Let’s look at where that is on the map. First up, here’s the big picture view:
This attack was at the southernmost point of the front. Here’s the closeup:
Russia really really really wants Vuhledar. As you can see it would partly cut off supply lines to several front-line towns just west of Donetsk city (at the right edge of this map). However, an entire naval infantry regiment has been wiped out trying to get there through Pavlivka, and Vuhledar is high terrain, making it extremely difficult to approach over vast, open, agricultural steppe.
Some Russian therefore got the bright idea, “why not go through Velyka Novosilka instead, thus cutting off its supply lines to Pavlivka and Vuhledar from the west?” Why not, indeed? A look a the map shows there’s actual logic here.
The problem is that Ukraine knows the importance of holding Velyka Novosilka, as that entire stretch of front depends on it for supplies. Suffice to say, it’s really well defended. “Back in the spring, Russian troops had a chance to wedge in this direction 15-20 km deeper, but it did not work out,” wrote that milblogger above nonchalantly. “It did not work out” being the propaganda way of saying “we got our asses handed to us.” Yet what he fails to mention is that at the time, that corner of the front wasn’t particularly well defended, and Russia did miss an opportunity to make some gains given its fragmented and disjointed attacks across five different axes. Since then, Ukraine has turned the settlement into a stronghold.
That didn’t stop Russia from attacking hard. And the end result looks something like this:
That picture alone shows five destroyed infantry fighting vehicles and one tank, all conveniently lined up for easy pickings. That was very considerate of the Russians.
And that little snapshot might point to even bigger losses, as Ukraine claimed it destroyed 24 tanks and eight armored infantry vehicles—a dramatic increase compared to the typical 2-3 tanks on an average day. In fact, we haven’t seen numbers this high since the liberation of Kharkiv oblast.
As for those Russian propaganda outlets, don’t worry. They’ve got this. You see, the attack all went according to plan! Mega-popular Russian milblogger Alexander Khodakovsky, with 630,000 Telegram subscribers, boasted about their great victory:
According to the latest data, ours in the Velyka Novosilka direction have returned to their original position. Everything was planned as an offensive, but in fact it took place as a reconnaissance in force. I am not exaggerating – everyone who was not involved in assault operations very carefully observed the enemy by all means and learned a lot of useful things. As for the offensive, the result speaks of insufficient readiness. But it’s also good that they didn’t cling to the advanced positions, left almost without a fight by the enemy, for the sake of a red piece on the map, and become targets in the shooting range.
You see, it was a glorious attack, and they won! He’s totally not exaggerating! But then they decided that maybe they weren’t ready, and it wasn’t an attack, it was just reconnaissance, and they had won and everything and Ukraine wasn’t even fighting back, so they decided to retreat anyway. Glory to Russia!
Though I will admit, the logic is sound. Why stop here? Russia should retreat from everywhere, lest they become targets in the shooting range for the sake of a red piece on the map. Do it!
Regardless, I bet they did learn some things. Like, perhaps, don’t attack all clumped in a neat line, making it extra easy for Ukrainian defenders to pick off one by one. You’d think they would’ve learned that months ago, but here we are. This time they learned, and you know that because he’s not even kidding! Maybe they learned not to attack at all! That would be a valuable lesson indeed. They certainly learned that they can’t sneak up on the Ukrainians, who were watching them get slaughtered the entire time:
Now we wait to see if Russia keeps pounding their heads against Velyka Novosilka like they did in Svatove, and they keep doing in Bakhmut. But really, look at that drone footage. It’s all open field, with Ukraine holding deeply entrenched positions, all under clear view of the defenders.
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