With every passing evening the intensity of Ukraine’s counteroffensive along the southern front has increased. At this point it’s clear that Ukraine is not concentrating on breaking through Russian defenses in a single point, but is conducting numerous separate, but coordinated assaults.
Over the course of Sunday, Ukraine has apparently liberated numerous towns and villages that have been on the front line in Zaporizhzhia oblast for months. They’ve also pushed Russian forces out of some of the advanced “screening” lines that had been closer to the front and in general demonstrated success at numerous points.
The degree of success has varied from a location just south of Orikhiv, near the village of Robotyne, where dislodging Russian forces has proved difficult, to closer to Velyka Novosilka where a whole string of villages has been liberated and reports show Ukrainian forces still advancing.
This is definitely the point of the counteroffensive where every day more towns and villages need to be added to the map as Ukrainian forces reach them, the location becomes disputed, and then the settlement is liberated and the fight moves on. It’s an excitement that hasn’t been felt since things quieted down on the northern section of the line last fall. There are going to be a lot of photos like this one in the near future, and their return is extremely uplifting.
This is also the time in which there are a lot—a lot—of false claims of advances, towns liberated, towns lost, and equipment destroyed on either side. Since Ukraine’s operational security tends to damp down conversation from their forces on the ground, everything we’re getting concerning confirmed Ukrainian advances is usually at least a day behind the action. On the other hand, both Russian reports of soldiers running away in screaming panic, and Russian false claims about having destroyed the entire Ukrainian military, come through unfiltered and at high speed. Keep that in mind.
Southern Ukraine Front overview
When the map is zoomed way out to show the relationship of the current areas of battle with the strategic goals at Melitopol and Mariupol, the progress so far can seem pretty small. In a way it is. Those primary Russian defensive lines that have been constructed over the last several months are still ahead of the fighting in every location. Russia had its troops stationed out about 10-15 km ahead of those defensive lines in most cases, often with some smaller local trenches and pillboxes to support the position. Ukraine has not yet moved Russian forces back to the main defensive lines, though there are places where they are getting close.
However, moving Russia out of these advance positions is a necessary first step. Over the fighting of the last week, one thing is clear: Ukraine can make advances. Also Ukraine still has the majority of its force, perhaps more than three-fourths, in reserve.
Well behind the lines, Russia is reporting multiple explosions in both Tokmak and Melitopol. Ukraine has repeatedly hit high value targets—logistical centers, supply deports, and headquarters buildings—over the last few nights. They’re using longer range weapons to make things more difficult for Russian forces at the front.
Earlier in the day, it was reported that precision weaponry (unclear what kind) was used to strike a rail bridge southwest of Melitopol. Until repaired, this would limit the ability to move forces or supplies in and out of Crimea by rail, but by no means “cuts the area off” as some social media posts have maintained.
Vasylivka—Orikhiv Area
In the last few hours, the western end of Ukraine’s line of assaults has produced news of exciting advances and sobering views of just how hard it can be to push forces out of prepared positions.
At the extreme west of the line, things seem to be happening quickly just north of Vasylivka. After liberating Lobkove, Ukrainian forces have reportedly crossed a small river to capture portions of Zherebyanky and Pyatykhatky. There are also unconfirmed reports that they have pushed Russian troops from the southern area of Kamyansk and established positions there. Finally, there are unconfirmed reports that Russian forces have abandoned the town of Luhove and moved back to defensive positions closer to Vasylivka.
That’s all good news. And it’s some serious good news.
Unfortunately, around the town of Robotyne, Ukraine, the day has seen heavy fighting, with much less reported progress. However, there’s something important to know about images like these below.
The good news here it twofold. First, at lease some of these images don’t represent new losses by Ukraine. Several are of vehicles lost four days ago in the first assault in the area. Russia keeps sending out more and more images of these same Leopards and Bradleys from new angles. They keep showing up in social media feeds with the implication that these are fresh losses. Some may be. Most are not. The even more important news is that there are images showing that in many cases these vehicles did exactly what they were designed to do—protect the soldiers inside, some of whom were able to withdraw from the area without obvious harm. Still, those three Leopard 2R mine clearing tanks are a big loss.
But make no mistake: This the worst area for Ukraine along the front lines so far, and a sobering demonstration of just how hard it is to be on the offensive against a prepared opponent.
This has not been a one-sided battle. Russian vehicles, transports, and artillery have been lost in the same area. It also seems that Ukraine has brought some HIMARS close enough to the battle that Russian forces have reported strikes over 20 km behind the fighting in Tokmak. While there’s been no reported advance in this area over the last day, that doesn’t mean it’s been a disaster.
At last report, fighting was ongoing in this area with Ukraine continuing to press the assault. Russian sources seem to be talking about a “battle for Nesterianka,” along a roadway midway between the two other battles on this front, but so far I’ve seen nothing to confirm any movement there even though a Ukrainian force was reportedly located along this road.
Hulyaipole—Velyka Novosilka Area
The biggest area of progress has definitely been in the area to the east, south of the town of Velyka Novosilvka. In fact, things have been moving so quickly in this area, that there’s a very good chance some of the locations still in the disputed areas were liberated before the post went up.
In the last day, there are reports of Ukrainian forces moving southwest out of Hulyaipole to the town of Marfopil. As of 8PM ET, there are unconfirmed reports that this town has been liberated by Ukrainian forces, but has not yet been backed up by images or other evidence.
Ukraine has reportedly liberated the village of Levadne as well as the town of Novodarivka. For the last several days, Rivnopil seemed to stand alone between two areas of Ukrainian progress, but on Sunday there are reports of Ukrainian forces pressing into that location from the north.
The biggest advance is along the road directly south of Velyka Novosilka. There is photographic evidence for the liberation of both Neskuchne and Blahodatne. In the last few hours, a Ukrainian deputy minister has announced the liberation of Storozheve and Makarivka. Ukrainian forces are now reportedly about 8 km south of the front lines a week ago, fighting around Urozhaine and Staromaiorske. There are very unconfirmed reports that Staromaiorske has already been liberated (as in I’m not seeing it from any of the usual suspects on Telegram and I don’t know the accounts making this claim on Twitter).
At the east edge of this advance, Ukraine has liberated Novodonetske after a day where control of this location may have gone back and forth. A number of Russian vehicles were reported destroyed along the road running down to Oktyabrske, and there are reports that Russia has abandoned Oktyabrske to move to the defensive lines to the south. Again, consider that very unconfirmed.
Northern and Eastern Ukraine front
At the moment, maps for this area have not been updated. However, there are several areas where Ukraine has made reported advances. It’s not clear if these advances has been supported by newly trained brigades, or if they are the result of action by troops who were already on the region.
Kupyansk: On Saturday night, Russian forces in the area reported that they could hear and see Ukrainian forces moving into the area. On Sunday most of the fighting appears to have been in the nature of artillery duels, with some Russian equipment reported destroyed.
Svatove: Unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian troops pushed Russian forces out of the village of Kryvoshyivka. This would be an important position along the P07 highway northwest of Svatove and along Russia’s main line of defense. Hopefully there will be more news from this area.
Kreminna: Ukrainian forces have reportedly made a small advance in this area, pushing Russian forces out of portions of the forest south of the city which they had occupied over the winter. Ukraine also reportedly staged an assault in the area of Chervonopopivka, along the highway north of Kreminna, which would represent Russia losing territory in the area if accurate.
Bakhmut: Ukrainian forces reportedly increased their control in the area around the Berkhivka reservoir northwest of the city. This came after a three-day limited offensive by Russia in the area that doesn’t appear to have pushed Ukraine back. On the south, there doesn’t seem to have been much change near Klishchiivka.
Avdiivka: The Ukrainian military reported advances in this area, but it’s not clear where they were relative to the city or how extensive. Fighting here is reported to be very heavy.
Mark Sumner
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