When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. first entered the Democratic presidential primary back in April, CBS News reported that his White House ambitions had been roused by Trump ally Steve Bannon. Bannon’s thinking, it seems, was that Kennedy would sow chaos in the Democratic Party and derail Biden’s nomination. But that theory could now backfire: On Monday, Kennedy, 69, is expected to abandon the Democratic primary to pursue the presidency as an independent—a move that could actually end up hurting Donald Trump more than Biden.
Internal polling from the Trump campaign suggests that a Kennedy third-party bid would sap more votes from the ex-president than Biden in a general election matchup, according to a Semafor report published Friday. “It’s single digits, but it’s enough where it counts to make a difference,” a person familiar with the data told the outlet. The Trump campaign, in turn, is reportedly readying a messaging onslaught against Kennedy, who, despite being a member of the most iconic family in Democratic politics, is running as a pro-gun anti-vaxxer whose platform aligns much more closely with conservative populism than Biden’s progressive liberalism. “We’re gonna be dropping napalm after napalm on his head reminding the public of his very liberal views, dating back to 2012,” another Trumpworld source told Semafor. “We have a lot of stuff on him.”
That would mark a bald departure from the favorability Kennedy has had among conservatives throughout the race. Florida governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican presidential candidate, said in July that if elected he may “sic” Kennedy on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Food and Drug Administration. Also in July, Trump praised Kennedy as a “very smart person,” though he explicitly viewed Kennedy as a Biden antagonist. “He’s hit a little bit of a nerve. And a lot of Democrats I know want to vote for him,” Trump said.
That perception appears to be shifting. On Friday, a week after Kennedy’s plan for a third-party bid came to light, a conservative outlet published a story on Kennedy that had all the makings of a Republican opposition research file. Kennedy, the Daily Caller noted, condemned the NRA as a “terror group” in a 2018 tweet, and, according to a 2002 interview with The Des Moines Register, said that factory farms posed a greater threat to the US than Osama bin Laden, mere months after the September 11 attacks. “Kennedy also accused Charles and David Koch, major financiers of the conservative movement, in 2014 of treason and suggested they should be jailed for war crimes,” the post continued.
It’s unclear if that story was connected to the Trump campaign’s alleged plot to dredge up Kennedy’s “very liberal views,” but it stands out when looking over the Daily Caller’s past coverage of Kennedy, which had largely been supportive. (In fact, Daily Caller cofounder Tucker Carlson has been among Kennedy’s most ardent defenders on the right.)
Kennedy himself has said that he would “take more votes from President Trump than [Biden]” in a three-way general election, as noted by Semafor. And polling has shown that he has higher favorability marks among Republicans than Democrats. Of course, that could change if Kennedy is suddenly seen as a threat by Republican voters or if Trump decides to wield his mudslinging prowess against him.
The Trump campaign, for its part, has publicly suggested he is not a threat. “President Trump is leading by wide margins in every single poll—both nationally and statewide—in the primary and general elections,” Trump spokesman Steven Cheung said in response to Semafor’s reporting. “The fact is that President Trump will beat Biden.” Meanwhile, according to the Associated Press, a spokesperson for the Democratic National Convention responded to Kennedy’s independent bid with an eye roll emoji.
Caleb Ecarma
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