Trump’s greatest threat remains unclear as legal troubles pile up

Five separate state and federal investigations of Donald Trump are ramping up, even as he seeks the GOP’s 2024 nomination for president.

As legal woes continue to pile on the former president, experts say there’s no singular threat that poses the greatest risk. “The investigations and lawsuits Trump is facing represent different threats for him—legally and politically,” Michael McAuliffe, a former federal prosecutor and Florida state attorney, told Newsweek.

Of the ongoing probes in New York, Georgia and at the federal level, one investigation is shaping up to be the clearest win for the prosecution, another is likely to be the quickest to indict Trump, and a third could “reverberate across the whole legal and political system,” in McAuliffe’s words.

Here’s where each investigation stands and what they mean for the ex-president.

Fulton County, Georgia, Probe

This week, the special grand jury investigating Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia wrapped up its work. The grand jurors have considered evidence and key testimony, including that given by the state’s top election officials and high-profile Trump associates, over the past six months. The jurors will now make recommendations on potential further action.

After the special jury produces its final report, it will be up to Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who began the probe nearly two years ago, to decide whether to impanel a traditional grand jury, which has the power to issue indictments.

Of all the pending investigations and lawsuits, this is the one former federal prosecutor Neama Rahmani thinks Trump should fear the most.

Citing Willis’ history of going after rappers with Racketeer Influenced Corrupt Organization indictments, the subpoena she issued to Senator Lindsey Graham earlier this year and the witnesses she has put before the grand jury, the Fulton DA has “a reputation for being an aggressive prosecutor,” Rahmani said.

“If Trump is prosecuted in 2023, the most likely venue is Fulton County, Georgia,” he told Newsweek.

McAuliffe said the Georgia case involves criminal wrongdoing that goes “to the heart of Trump’s continuing existence as a political figure” and could result in a felony conviction that might hurt his image as he vies for the White House again. But while this election interference probe is serious, McAuliffe said, a special grand jury cannot make indictments. Its process is different and much more complicated than those used in some of the other criminal cases Trump is up against.

Department of Justice: Mar-a-Lago Documents

One of the criminal cases that is more advanced and could move quicker than the Georgia probe is the Justice Department’s (DOJ) investigation into the highly sensitive documents found at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida.

McAuliffe said the case has been able to come together much quicker because the issue is clearly and simply laid out: “presidential documents are the people’s to keep and use, and not the former president’s personal playthings or trophies.”

Rahmani also said it is the “more easily probable” crime, partly because the FBI seizure in August is more recent than the January 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters.

Some legal experts have speculated that the only reason federal prosecutors haven’t already indicted Trump for possession of these confidential records is that they wish to avoid jeopardizing the DOJ’s probe into Trump’s role in the Capitol attack.

However, Rahmani said that inaction by the DOJ suggests it’s unlikely prosecutors will pursue charges against Trump at the federal level.

“So far, it’s unclear whether Attorney General Merrick Garland, special counsel Jack Smith or anyone at the Department of Justice has this willpower,” he said. “They’ve seemingly given Trump a pass for the Mar-a-Lago documents and haven’t tried to hold him accountable for the Capitol riots so far.”

Justice Department Probe of January 6 Riot

The DOJ’s probe of Trump in connection with the storming of the Capitol has been conducted at the same time as the House January 6 committee’s investigation, which recently issued its report. Pressure to indict Trump for possibly inciting an insurrection or making false statements was renewed last week when the House panel referred four criminal charges against Trump to the DOJ.

McAuliffe said this is the investigation with the widest scope and potentially the most complex of the five.

He said it is also the one that “might reverberate across the whole legal and political system” and is the “core reason many people regard Trump as an existential threat to democracy.”

Attorney Andrew Lieb told Newsweek the work of the House’s select committee, as well as the seditious conspiracy case won by the DOJ against the far-right Oath Keepers group, will raise the chances that former Trump allies could flip on him, which could “easily spell trouble for the former president.”

“If Trump is charged, the January 6th insurrection prosecution will be the one remembered by history as a defining test of the rule of law,” McAuliffe said.

But even with all the evidence that has emerged, as well as the pressure from congressional lawmakers, it will take a prosecutor with guts to go after Trump, Rahmani said.

“Criminal prosecution of the former president requires more than evidence,” he said. “It also requires a prosecutor willing to take on the most politically charged prosecution in American history.”

Manhattan DA’s Probe

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg is leading a fourth criminal investigation into Trump. Bragg has already successfully convicted Trump’s company, the Trump Organization, of a 15-year-old tax scam, and experts say that this win is lining him up for another victory.

In recent months, Bragg’s office has renewed its focus on the hush-money payments made to former porn star Stormy Daniels (real name: Stephanie Gregory Clifford), who alleges she had an affair with Trump in 2006. The inquiry appeared to go dormant earlier this year after the DA questioned the strength of the case and told prosecutors he was not prepared to authorize charges. But Bragg may now have a better shot at going after Trump in the criminal case.

“One can easily take the leap that the same evidence and trial strategy would be effective against Trump as it was against his company,” Lieb told Newsweek.

New York State’s Civil Suit

New York Attorney General Letitia James’ office has filed a $250 million civil suit against Trump and his family, seeking to bar them from ever running again a corporation in the state. Although the repercussions could be huge for Trump, experts say this case could be less devastating to the former president.

While the case represents an economic threat to Trump’s ability to conduct business, it “does not put his liberty at risk or potentially brand him a felon,” McAuliffe said.

And while James “talks tough,” Rahmani said, she hasn’t “backed up her rhetoric because she’s only filed a civil lawsuit,” unlike Bragg, who has filed criminal charges.

As a 2024 presidential candidate, Trump benefits from having more than one case against him, Lieb said. He added that the former president “loves to say that he is the only thing between the government and his supporters,” so an onslaught of investigations “plays well into his talking points.”

“When it comes to Trump…he has a knack for making legal troubles into his political trump card,” Lieb said.