A disturbance of storms in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean over the Caribbean Sea has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The cone path currently has the storm over Hispaniola and making a northward turn, churning over the Bahamas and dusting Florida’s east coast next week. This comes six weeks after the deadly Hurricane Ian devastated Florida’s southwest coast.
Photo by ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images
The system in the Caribbean has more than a 70 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression, the NHC states.
“A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The trough is forecast to move northward over the southwestern Atlantic by Sunday, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form north of Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or tropical depression,” the hurricane center said on its website.
NHC also stated there’s an increased “risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast” and portions of the Bahamas next week.
It’s also expected to bring heavy rains and flooding to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
2 PM EDT Saturday November 5: Here are latest Key Messages for the disturbance over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is increasing risk for impacts along the SE U.S. coast and the east coast of Florida. Follow the latest at https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB pic.twitter.com/vaVMhvNQpb
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) November 5, 2022
Although tropical systems in the Atlantic season have seen a rather dormant season, this storm comes on the heels of Hurricanes Ian and Julia within the last month. Ian crushed Florida on September 28 as a high-level Category 4 storm. It leveled many structures on the barrier islands from Naples to Sarasota, with winds clocking more than 150 mph in some places.
Ian left more than 100 people dead, hundreds injured and hundreds of thousands displaced and without power or running water for at least more than a week.
Ian traversed northeast across Florida, wreaking havoc in Orlando and up through Jacksonville. Ian downgraded into a tropical storm but regained Category 1 strength before it made landfall again in South Carolina.
Julia took a somewhat similar path as Ian’s. Both storms began in the Atlantic, about 10-12 degrees north of the equator. Ian took a northward turn once it got into the Caribbean but Julia stayed on a westward path. Julia continued to a landfall as a Category 1 storm in Nicaragua on October 8.
Last week, Hurricane Lisa hit Belize as a Category 1 storm. Lisa has sent downgraded as it made its way into the Gulf of Mexico, where the National Hurricane Center is monitoring its remnants.
Hurricane season officially ends on November 30 but named storms could still form in December.
