With house insurance rates escalating and more frequent flooding from rising sea levels and extreme rainfall, some prospective home buyers are asking more questions about climate impacts before signing up for a 30-year mortgage.
Economists, flood experts and others often consider which cities might be safest from climate change impacts in the long-term, considering factors such as flood risk, sustainability and preparation to make communities more resilient.
But safety is in the eye of beholder.
The truth is every place has its risks, said Steve Bowen, chief science officer and meteorologist with Gallagher Re, a global reinsurance broker.
“You have to inherently understand there is no risk-free place anywhere in the country,” Bowen said. “It’s picking the type of risk you want to be subjected to.”
Across the country, people are struggling with rapid shifts between drought and extreme rain, warming temperatures and severe storms that produce hail, rain and tornadoes, Bowen said.
More extreme weather events aren’t the only thing causing insurance rates to shoot up, but they will increase pressure on the market, and could price people out of their homes and send them in search of less riskier places to live.
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Climate migration already underway
It appears people already are moving away from the coast in states like North Carolina and Louisiana, and that pace is expected to increase, said Jesse Keenan, an economist and associate professor of sustainable real estate at Tulane University who studies urban and infrastructure planning.
Keenan once referred to Duluth, Minnesota, in a presentation as “the most climate-proof city in America (sort of)” and to his amusement, the suggested slogan – among several he presented – stuck. Although the slogan keeps resurfacing in news stories and conversations, other cities also offer promise as climate change, natural disasters and other stressors force property owners inland.
While conducting research, he and his research team have developed a list of cities that could be best bets. The communities stand out because of some combination of their geographies, economies and what they’ve done to get ready for the changes that lie ahead, he said.
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These are the cities tops on Keenan’s list:
- Duluth, MN
- Orlando, FL
- Asheville, NC
- Knoxville, TN
- Charlottesville, VA
- Lynchburg, VA
- Johnson City, TN
- Pittsburgh, PA
- Syracuse, NY
- Buffalo, NY
- Toledo, OH
- Green Bay, WI
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Orlando also surfaced on a list published by Architectural Digest, considering elevation, population, extreme weather, risk and readiness scores, clean energy and air quality. Only one city on a coast made the list: Seattle. Others were:
- Denver, CO
- Raleigh, NC
- Salt Lake City, UT
- Charlotte, NC
- Milwaukee, WI
- Austin, TX
- Columbus, OH
- Orlando, FL
- Atlanta, GA
Climate change a factor when people consider a move
Orlando has long been seen by investors as potentially being “the great beneficiary of an outflow of people” as southeast Florida “essentially depopulates to Central Florida,” Keenan said.
He has heard from residents of some cities, such as Asheville, North Carolina, who say they already see an influx of people moving in from coastal regions. It may be a small number, but it’s resonating with the locals, he said.
“People don’t wake up in the morning and say I’m moving because of climate change,” Keenan said. “They wake up and make a very complex set of decisions that weigh a lot of factors and climate change is one of those factors. It’s about jobs, family connections, school districts and all these other things that generally drive relocation.”
Sea levels rising
One thing is certain, sea level rise is accelerating, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Sea levels have risen about a foot over the last 100 years, and the pace has picked up in recent decades, William Sweet, a NOAA oceanographer said during a May briefing by Sciline, a service of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Broadly, the U.S. is headed for about a foot of sea level rise in the next 30 years, Sweet said. “Sea level rise continues to creep up and run amok amongst our infrastructure.”
“A little bit of sea level rise goes a long way in terms of the types of impacts that are really starting to grow in leaps and bounds,” Sweet said. The change is most evident not in the number of huge floods, he said, but in the localized, minor flooding events that occur more and more often.
“It’s not just weighing on people’s minds, but it’s weighing on commerce and commutes within communities,” Sweet said. Downtowns are flooding. People aren’t shopping.
In Norfolk, Virginia, for example, minor flooding events happened about five times a year in 2020. By 2050, moderate flooding will happen five to 10 times a year.
Flood risk awareness lacking
Flood insurance expert Joe Rossi thinks about this a lot. He advises people on flood risk and breaks the news to customers on how expensive their new insurance policy will be for recently purchased property on the waterfront.
Any potential for flooding should be a big red flag, Rossi said. “Every day I see a lack of risk awareness.”
Extreme rainfall events in the central and eastern U.S. are a growing cause for concern, he said. “From a risk perspective, you’re probably better off in areas that aren’t subject to flooding from extreme rainfall.”
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He suggests inland areas in Maine, New Hampshire or the Carolinas, but not in the mountains or on a closed-basin lake where the water has nowhere to go but up.
“I hate to say it, but I’m not going to buy on the coast,” he said. “And I’m probably not going anywhere that has any type of landslide and erosion issues. Anything near a creek or a river is going to be a big no.”
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