ReportWire

Tag: Opinion

  • The Gordian Knot of Fiat, And How Bitcoin Cuts Through It

    The Gordian Knot of Fiat, And How Bitcoin Cuts Through It

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    This is an opinion editorial by Andrew Axelrod, a Bitcoin educator and writer whose LinkedIn posts have orange pilled thousands.

    “We truly are a species with amnesia. We have forgotten a very important part of our story.” — Graham Hancock

    “You have forgotten who you are and so have forgotten me. Look inside yourself Simba. You are more than what you have become. You must take your place in the Circle of life.” — Mufasa

    Most of human experience is relegated to the dustbin of history and forgotten. And maybe rightfully so. After all, life is largely mundane, punctuated by inanities.

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    Andrew Axelrod

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  • Unless Something Changes, Bitcoin Adoption In The West Will Be KYC’d

    Unless Something Changes, Bitcoin Adoption In The West Will Be KYC’d

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    This is an opinion editorial by Robert Hall, a content creator and small business owner.

    What is the most likely path to hyperbitcoinization? This is a question that has come up in my mind time and time again. Will it be a top-down implementation like we saw in El Salvador last year? Regarding world leaders, Nayib Bukele is the rare exception to the rule. Most world leaders think within a predefined box of fiat options.

    Will adoption look more people-powered like in Nigeria, where Bitcoin was integral to funding the youth-led protest against the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) in October 2020, after protesters’ bank accounts were frozen?

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    Robert Hall

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  • Bitcoiners Have Cassandra’s Curse

    Bitcoiners Have Cassandra’s Curse

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    This is an opinion editorial by Mark Maraia, an entrepreneur, author of “Rainmaking Made Simple” and Bitcoiner.

    Legend has it that there was once a princess of Troy named Cassandra, the daughter of King Priam and Queen Hecuba, sister to Hector, the prince of Troy who famously fought Achilles (of heel-related fame). The god Apollo fell in love with her and in an attempt to woo her, he gave her the gift of being able to see the future. Unimpressed, she rejected his love. A god could not take back a divine gift once it had been given, so in his anger Apollo could only give her something more — this time a curse. Cassandra was fated always to see the truth of the future, but never to be believed by anyone who she told her vision to.

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    Mark Maraia

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  • Weekend reads: The Federal Reserve gets a lot of flak for inflation, but it has actually hit its target recently

    Weekend reads: The Federal Reserve gets a lot of flak for inflation, but it has actually hit its target recently

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    The U.S. stock market benchmark rebounded from a steep loss on the day when the government published hot inflation numbers.

    The S&P 500 Index ended Thursday with a 2.6% gain after investors took a closer look and saw a significant improvement from July through September, as Rex Nutting explained.

    The whipsaw action wasn’t limited to stocks, and was described by Rick Rieder, the chief investment officer for global fixed income at BlackRock, as “one of the craziest days” of his career.

    The bond market’s warning

    Some investors who focus on stocks might not realize that the bond market is much larger, and that its movements can cause government and central-bank policies to shift. Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense,” which described the 2008 failure of Lehman Brothers, explained just how bad the action was in the U.K. bond market over the past few weeks, when 30-year government bonds issued in December traded as low as 24 cents on the dollar. He also predicted what will happen if the Federal Reserve continues on its current course of interest-rate increases.

    Related outlooks for interest rates:

    Bullish signs for long-term stock investors

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    Michael Brush argues the Federal Reserve is moving too quickly to raise interest rates and cool the U.S. economy. He expects a rapid decline in inflation and a new bull market for stocks. In a column, he shares five sentiment indicators that suggest it is time to buy stocks — especially this group of companies.

    More: Here’s how you’ll know stock-market lows are finally here, says the legendary investor who called 1987 crash

    Don’t forget to look over your portfolio

    Beth Pinsker explains how to make sure your investments are best diversified to fit your needs during time of uncertainty in all financial markets.

    Read on: $22 billion in I-bond sales can’t be wrong. Why you may want to buy them even when their rate resets soon

    Time for a refreshing COLA if you are on Social Security

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    The Social Security Administration has announced that its cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2023 will be 8.7%, the largest increase in four decades. There is more to the story, including tax implications and changes to Medicare, as Jessica Hall and Alessandra Malito explain.

    Related: Can I stop and restart Social Security benefits?

    Pay attention to Medicare open enrollment

    Getty Images/iStockphoto

    Medicare’s annual open enrollment season runs from Oct. 15 to Dec. 7. The majority of Medicare recipients don’t review their plans each year, which can cost them a lot of money. Here’s how to approach Medicare’s 2023 enrollment period.

    You won’t like this ‘new normal’ for the housing market

    West Coast housing markets are already seeing price declines as mortgage loan rates hit 7%.


    Stefani Reynolds/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

    Freddie Mac said interest rates on 30-year mortgage loans averaged 6.92% on Oct. 13, up from 3.05% a year earlier. Mortgage Daily said rates had hit 7.10% — the highest in 20 years — and economists are warning these levels could be a “new normal.”

    A homeowner locked-in with a low interest rate on their mortgage loan will be reluctant to sell. And some would-be buyers may now be priced out of the market because of much higher loan payments. Here’s what economists expect for home prices in 2023.

    More housing coverage from Aarthi Swaminathan: ‘No housing market is immune to home-price declines’: Home values are already falling in these pandemic boomtowns.

    Tips for maximizing financial aid for college

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    When you fill out the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, or FAFSA, to help pay for your child’s college education, there may be a problem — old news. The form reflects your financial situation up to two years ago, and things may have worsened recently. Here’s how to make sure schools have the most recent information to help you get as much financial aid as possible.

    This is why Florida’s insurance market is such a mess

    Florida insurers are not only suffering from storm-damage payouts.


    Joe Raedle/Getty Images

    Hurricanes are nothing new to Floridians, but insurers in the state are losing money even though premiums have doubled over the past five years. Shahid S. Hamid, the director of the Laboratory for Insurance at Florida International University, explains why the Florida insurance market is so distorted.

    Here’s a travel option you may never have heard of — home swapping

    Villefranche-sur-mer on the French Riviera.


    istock

    Home swapping can give you an opportunity to live as a local in a faraway place while spending much less than you would as a tourist. Here’s how it works.

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  • Myanmar’s Crisis Since the Coup– in a Nutshell

    Myanmar’s Crisis Since the Coup– in a Nutshell

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    Protesters attend a march against the military coup in Myanmar. Credit: Unsplash/Pyae Sone Htun
    • Opinion by Jan Servaes (brussels)
    • Inter Press Service

    Since the military overthrew an elected government on February 1, 2021, and took power in a country ruled by generals for five of the past six decades, the situation for the majority of the population has become increasingly desperate.

    The coup, which ended 10 years of provisional democracy initiated by the previous junta, has devastated Myanmar’s economy, leading to mass displacement of people as a result of fighting between armed groups and the military, and relentless bombing on civilian targets of the Burmese Air Force.

    Below are the key data, compiled primarily by UN News, Reuters, Frontier, and Human Rights Watch, from the years-long crisis:

    • According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), a non-profit organization that tracks military action and is frequently cited by the United Nations, 2,343 is the number of opponents of the junta that have been killed since the coup. Killed.
    • 1,5,821 opponents of the coup have been arrested by the junta, the AAPP says.
    • 160 people were killed in one day on March 27, 2021, as the junta celebrated the annual Armed Forces Day, the bloodiest day in its crackdown on democracy activists.
    • According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), 1,320,000 people have been displaced by fighting. It is estimated that about 14.4 million people—about a quarter of Myanmar’s population—have been displaced from their homes and are in need of humanitarian assistance.
    • 30 is the percentage by which Myanmar’s economy has shrunk as a direct result of the coup, the World Bank says. According to the World Bank, 1 million jobs were lost in Myanmar in 2021.
    • Potentially $2.8 billion in economic losses from internet shutdowns in Myanmar by 2021.
    • More than 60 is the percentage of the value of the kyat currency that has been lost against the dollar since the coup. Capital flight and a decline in foreign investment & aid, and money transfers have led to a shortage of foreign currency. The military regime’s attempts to restrict imports and ration foreign currencies have boosted illegal border trade with China and Thailand. A widening disparity between Thailand’s and Myanmar’s trade figures suggests that smuggling from Thailand has not only recovered to pre-coup levels, but also appears to have reached an all-time high. This boom questions the junta’s claim of a trade surplus. Moreover, it has been fueled by the regime’s own heavy-handed efforts to control trade.
    • Compared to March 2020, poverty is estimated to have tripled. With about 40 percent of the population living below the national poverty line by 2022, nearly a decade of progress in poverty reduction has been undone.
    • 18 was the percentage contraction the World Bank predicted for Myanmar’s economy in the fiscal year starting April 1, 2021. Failure to see a substantial rebound in economic growth – with GDP estimated to remain in 2022 at around 13 percent lower than in 2019 – continues to test the resilience of the Myanmar population. Food insecurity is on the rise and households are increasingly resorting to negative coping mechanisms – including reducing consumption and asset sales – in the face of uncertainty.
    • The suicide rate has continued to rise since the coup as financial hardship, political repression and the collapse of the health care system are negatively impacting mental health.
    • 26 is the total number of years in prison that deposed 77-year-old Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi will face if given the maximum sentences in the remaining lawsuits against her.
    • Press freedom regresses fast. The country has become a worse jailer of journalists than China. Since the coup, military authorities have arrested about 142 journalists and media workers, an estimated 57 of whom are still in prison in Myanmar, six more than are believed to be imprisoned in China. The junta has forced at least 12 media outlets to shut down, pushing hundreds of media workers to flee the country and revive the exiled media outlets that reported on the country under the last military junta prior to 2011.
    • ASEAN is increasingly frustrated with the lack of progress on the Five Point Consensus – a non-binding agreement drafted in April 2021. While many countries have criticized the junta’s lack of “willingness” to comply with the framework, Malaysia has gone a step further and put forward the idea of suspending Myanmar.

    Jan Servaes was UNESCO-Chair in Communication for Sustainable Social Change at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. He taught ‘international communication’ in Australia, Belgium, China, Hong Kong, the US, Netherlands and Thailand, in addition to short-term projects at about 120 universities in 55 countries. He is editor of the 2020 Handbook on Communication for Development and Social Change.
    https://link.springer.com/referencework/10.1007/978-981-10-7035-8

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  • How BIP Bounties Will Supercharge The Bitcoin Network

    How BIP Bounties Will Supercharge The Bitcoin Network

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    This is an opinion editorial by Ariel Deschapell, co-founder of multi-cloud hosting platform Hydra Host, senior fellow at Lincoln Network and a team member at BIPBounty.org.

    The idea that Bitcoin lacks innovation compared to other cryptocurrencies is pervasive, but is it true?

    The Bitcoin protocol undergoes significant changes much more slowly than other cryptocurrencies, the latest, of course, being the implementation and activation of Taproot. But this is a feature, not a bug.

    As the foundation of a massive open-source ecosystem, changes should be well thought out and should consistently demonstrate widespread consensus that the benefits of the change outweigh costs. While true and generally accepted, this line of thinking can also be a cop out. It’s important to recognize the necessity of consensus, but we must think deeply about what consensus means, how it is achieved and how we could potentially improve upon how it happens.

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    Ariel Deschapell

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  • Persons with Disabilities Integral Players in Determining Innovative Solutions to Fully Inclusive Societies

    Persons with Disabilities Integral Players in Determining Innovative Solutions to Fully Inclusive Societies

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    • Opinion by Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana (bangkok, thailand)
    • Inter Press Service

    Our region is unique, having already declared three decades to protect and uphold the rights of persons with disabilities; 44 Asian and Pacific governments have ratified the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities; and we celebrate achievements in the development of disability laws, policies, strategies and programmes.

    Today, we have more parliamentarians and policymakers with disabilities. Their everyday business is national decision-making. They also monitor policy implementation. We find them active across the Asia-Pacific region: Australia, Bangladesh, China, Japan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, the Marshall Islands, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Türkiye. They have promoted inclusive public procurement to support disability-inclusive businesses and accessible facilities, advanced sign language interpretation in media programmes and parliamentary sessions, focused policy attention on overlooked groups, and directed numerous policy initiatives towards inclusion.

    Less visible but no less important are local-level elected politicians with disabilities in India, Japan and the Republic of Korea. Indonesia witnessed 42 candidates with disabilities standing in the last election. Grassroot disability organizations have emerged as rapid responders to emerging issues such as COVID-19 and other crises. Organizations of and for persons with disabilities in Bangladesh have distinguished themselves in disability-inclusive COVID-19 responses, and created programmes to support persons with psychosocial disabilities and autism.

    The past decade saw the emergence of private sector leadership in disability-inclusive business. Wipro, headquartered in India, pioneers disability inclusion in its multinational growth strategy. This is a pillar of Wipro’s diversity and inclusion initiatives. Employees with disabilities are at the core of designing and delivering Wipro digital services.

    Yet, there is always more unfinished business to address.

    Even though we applaud the increasing participation of persons with disabilities in policymaking, there are still only eight persons with disabilities for every 1,000 parliamentarians in the region.

    On the right to work, 3 in 4 persons with disabilities are not employed, while 7 in 10 persons with disabilities do not enjoy any form of social protection.

    This sobering picture points to the need for disability-specific and disability-inclusive policies and their sustained implementation in partnership with women and men with disabilities.

    One of the first steps to inclusion is recognizing the rights of persons with disabilities. This model focuses on the person and their dignity, aspirations, individuality and value as a human being. As such, government offices, banks and public transportation and spaces must be made accessible for persons with diverse disabilities. To this end, governments in the region have conducted accessibility audits of government buildings and public transportation stations. Partnerships with the private sector have led to reasonable accommodations at work, promoting employment in a variety of sectors.

    Despite the thrust of the Incheon Strategy on data collection and analysis, persons with disabilities still are often left out of official data because the questions that allow for disaggregation are excluded from surveys and accommodations are not made to ensure their participation. This reflects a continued lack of policy priority and budgetary allocations. To create evidence-based policies, we need reliable and comparable data disaggregated by disability status, sex and geographic location.

    There is hope in the technology leap to 5G in the Asia-Pacific region. The implications for the empowerment of persons are limitless: from digital access, e-health care and assistive devices at affordable prices to remote learning and working, and exercising the right to vote. This is a critical moment to ensure disability-inclusive digitalization.

    We live in a world of volatile change. A disability-inclusive approach to shape this world would benefit everyone, particularly in a rapidly ageing Asia-Pacific region where everyone’s contributions will matter. As we stand on the precipice of a fourth Asian and Pacific Decade of Persons with Disabilities it remains our duty to insist on a paradigm shift to celebrate diversity and disability inclusion. When we dismantle barriers and persons with disabilities surge ahead, everyone benefits.

    Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana is an Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)

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  • Learning About Bitcoin Is The Path To Financial Freedom

    Learning About Bitcoin Is The Path To Financial Freedom

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    This is an opinion editorial by The Bitcoin General, a Bitcoin proponent, seeker of truth, respecter of individuality and appreciator of freedom.

    For decades, the legacy financial establishment has capitalized on its position to manage wealth for the vast majority of investors. On January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto did something revolutionary: he mined the genesis block of Bitcoin. After witnessing the scandalous events of the great financial crash of 2008, enough was enough. Big banks engaged in reckless conduct with predatory lending practices and incessant greed that drove the world into a global recession. Then came the massive corporate bailouts via the money-printer.

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  • Gaming To Earn Bitcoin While Bitcoining To Game Earning

    Gaming To Earn Bitcoin While Bitcoining To Game Earning

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    This is an opinion editorial by Tyler Parks, who has a background in biological science and spent a decade working in the restaurant industry.

    Money is a topic people have come to take quite seriously. So serious in fact that grown adults wait with bated breath for news of the latest figures on consumer prices and interest rates. These have real impacts on perceptions of wealth and productivity. But what if I told you money is just a game we play, a game like any other, with a variety of rules and objectives. Money is a symbolic thing we use in order to achieve things of value and significance in the world and hence not an end in itself. A financial system is like a game board with pieces, obstacles and paths to success. The questions are: Are you aware of the kinds of money games you play on a regular basis? Did you voluntarily join or were you born into a game whose rules were never explained and with a hand you didn’t choose?

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  • How Digital Can Drive a Green Recovery

    How Digital Can Drive a Green Recovery

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    • Opinion by Riad Meddeb (united nations)
    • Inter Press Service

    This again highlights how societal and planetary imbalances reinforce each other, as well as the need for a truly inclusive and green recovery. One that is foundational for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

    The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated that digital is no longer optional. Countries with existing digital foundations were much better equipped to respond to citizens’ needs, including through the effective delivery of public services such as healthcare, social security benefits, and remote education. Digital will play a similarly important role in shaping a global green recovery.

    Beyond building national socioeconomic resilience, digital transformation is also proving a key enabler in advancing global climate commitments. Countries supported by UNDP are leveraging digital in innovative ways to redouble their efforts to adopt renewable energy, transition to a circular economy, and to protect biodiversity.

    Ecuador is building a digital traceability system for monitoring land use change and to track commodities through the supply chain. Papua New Guinea has piloted a mobile phone application to assist law enforcers to quickly record and report environmental harms such as illegal logging and bush fires.

    Whether it’s emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI) or more established digital tools like the mobile phone digital can be a fundamental driver of change. It is reshaping the dynamics between the economy, governments, businesses, and civil society and is an important tool in rebalancing our planetary, societal, and economic priorities.

    However, digital is fast becoming the global metric of both inclusion and exclusion. With 37 percent of the world’s population still offline, the digital divide, notably, the lack of accessible broadband, gaps in digital skills, and marginalized groups excluded from technology, has become a key barrier for countries wanting to capitalize on the potential opportunities of the increasingly digital economy.

    And digital technologies themselves could constrain a Green Recovery. The industry’s carbon footprint could account for about 14 percent of global emissions by 2040. If digital were a country, it would nearly surpass the US as the second largest contributor to climate change. And this impact may worsen, with emerging technologies also contributing to increased emissions.

    Digital and a green recovery

    Integrating sustainable development in digital is central to ensuring a green recovery – one that drives inclusive digital access and capacity, promotes openness and open data, and fosters innovations that increase the efficiency of digital technologies and mitigates their environmental footprint.

    In this context, the UNDP Global Centre for Technology, Innovation and Sustainable Development organized its flagship event ‘Digital for a Green Recovery’ on the sidelines of the World Cities Summit in Singapore. The event highlighted three priorities for an inclusive and green digital transformation.

    First, we must put people at the centre of innovation. This includes ensuring the availability of foundational digital infrastructure so that everyone can benefit. We must also ensure that the technical standards and explorations of emerging technologies are ‘human-centred’, founded on the local needs and aspirations of populations, but also ‘environment-centred’.

    Second, we need to strengthen collaboration between innovation ecosystems. Innovation doesn’t happen in a vacuum. It requires an enabling ecosystem comprising policies and regulations, investors, incubators and accelerators; and educational institutions. Digital can be a potent enabler for connecting dispersed national and global innovation ecosystems in pursuit of sustainability.

    Third, data is the lifeblood of digital transformation and could be an important equalizer for countries in accelerating their efforts towards the Sustainable Development Goals.

    However, a number of countries lack even foundational data infrastructure, such as data centres, communication networks, and energy grids. We need to accelerate efforts to build data capacity to ensure that existing digital divides are not widened.

    Digital is an indispensable enabler for driving a green and inclusive recovery. But it is truly a ‘whole-of-society’ endeavour.

    As a platform to showcase innovation, best practice, and to foster partnerships, the UNDP Global Centre for Technology, Innovation, and Sustainable Development will continue to convene global discussions, support and align innovation ecosystems around the world, and guide governments in leveraging the potential afforded by digital. Through driving the experimentation, adoption, and scaling of digital, we can shape a Green Recovery that works for both people and planet.

    Riad Meddeb is Acting Director, UNDP Global Centre for Technology, Innovation and Sustainable Development & Senior Principal Advisor for SIDS

    These insights were drawn from ‘Digital for a Green Recovery’ – the Flagship Event of the UNDP Global Centre for Technology, Innovation and Sustainable Development, held on the sidelines of the World Cities Summit 2022 in Singapore.

    Source: UNDP Blog

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  • How Should Europe Respond to Russians Fleeing the Military Mobilisation?

    How Should Europe Respond to Russians Fleeing the Military Mobilisation?

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    Thousands of Ukrainians seeking safety in neighbouring Poland. Credit: WFP/Marco Frattini
    • Opinion by Bram Frouws (geneva)
    • Inter Press Service

    The United Nations has described as “unprecedented,” the continuing outflow of children and families fleeing the “relentless shelling” of Russian military action in Ukraine – as they await assurances for the safe passage of relief teams to provide urgently needed assistance.

    They are fleeing Russia in all directions, with over 20,000 in Georgia and thousands more entering every day, possibly as many as 200,000 in Kazakhstan – with many moving on to Kyrgyzstan – and thousands in Turkey and in Armenia.

    There are queues of thousands of citizens at land borders, prices for accommodation are soaring and flight tickets out of Russia simply not available anymore or only at sky-high prices.

    Compared to the numbers in some of the Central Asian countries, the number of Russian refugees coming to Europe is still relatively low. But it does raise an important question for European countries, a question already raised shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine: what about Russian refugees?

    Mixed responses to Russians fleeing conscription

    So far, the response has been somewhat mixed. Some countries, like the Baltic countries, were fast in saying they will not accept asylum claims from Russians. For example, Latvia’s Foreign Minister said that since Russians were fine with killing Ukrainians, it is not right to consider them conscious objectors, adding that admitting them is a security risk and there are plenty of countries outside of the EU to go to.

    Lithuania’s Foreign Minister said they will not be granting asylum to those who are simply running from responsibility and added that Russians should stay and fight, against Putin. Germany’s Justice Minister, on the other hand, said that anyone who hates Putin’s path and loves liberal democracy is warmly welcomed in Germany.

    European Council President Charles Michel said, in his address to the United Nations General Assembly that Europe should allow in Russian citizens seeking to flee the country. While the EU already agreed to suspend a visa facilitation agreement with Russia earlier in September, many countries, most notably Finland essentially shut their borders to Russians after the draft announcement by Russia.

    Shortly after these initial reactions, EU Home Affairs Commissioner Johansson announced an EU-wide policy towards those fleeing conscription, saying member states should do a thorough security assessment before issuing visa, that visa should not be issued to anyone intending to stay for more than 90 days and that the right to apply for asylum is a fundamental right, which also applies to Russians.

    What would be the right approach?

    First of all, Europe has been rather united in their responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it would be important European countries remain united on the issue of Russian refugees as well.

    The emotions around this issue, however, are very understandable, in particular in Eastern European countries, given their history and proximity to Russia, and given that it is clear who the aggressor is in this unjustified war.

    Of course, it is also understandable that Ukrainian refugees evoke far more empathy than Russian refugees, but decisions about asylum should always be based on objective criteria and individual assessments.

    It is crucial that emotions are set aside when it comes to defining who is a refugee and who isn’t. All EU countries signed up to international refugee law and European conventions, and there are objective criteria to decide whether someone is a refugee or not.

    On a general note, it is highly concerning if decisions on whether we grant refugee status or other forms of protection are increasingly based on whether we – as a population or as policy makers or politicians – feel for a certain group and whether we sympathise with them.

    We have also seen this in the striking difference in how Ukrainian refugees were welcomed across Europe, compared to refugees coming from further away. This should never be the case.

    It will be challenging, and there will not be a whole lot of empathy among European populations towards Russian refugees. But that is actually the moment where we require and expect from our European leaders to stand up, be rational and objective and lead by example, saying Europe is a safe haven, for anyone who has good reasons to flee their home country, no matter which home country.

    The EU’s announcement of its policy towards Russian refugees, as mentioned above, goes somewhat in that direction, though it also remains unclear how Russians – with basically, all routes out of Russia to the EU closed – in practice could even apply for asylum.

    What does the law say?

    As for every asylum seeker, applications must be assessed on a case-by-case basis. Fear of persecution or punishment for desertion or draft-evasion does not in itself or automatically constitute a well-founded fear of persecution under the refugee definition, according to UNHCRs handbook on procedures and criteria determining refugee status.

    However, the same handbook also provides several reasons where it does. For example, when the punishment would be disproportionate, or where it can be proven that soldiers would be forced to participate in war crimes, in this case in Ukraine, or when the type of type of military action, with which an individual does not wish to be associated, is condemned by the international community as contrary to basic rules of human conduct.

    With these clauses in mind, it can probably be argued that many Russian men fleeing draft, might be persecuted as understood under refugee law. All European countries signed up to the Refugee Convention and European conventions, which means everyone has a right to seek asylum and have their case assessed.

    A straightforward refusal to assess claims would be a violation of international law. In short, all Russians fleeing draft should be treated as asylum seekers if they claim asylum, like anyone else, from any other country in the world.

    Moreover, closing the borders and restricting access to visa for all Russians, is not a solution either. This would probably push even more Russians into the asylum system, which is already quite overburdened in many countries. And, as argued above, all these individual claims should then still be assessed.

    Of course, keeping borders open to Russians does not, and should not, mean anyone can come in unchecked. The concerns about Russian operatives joining these movements might be genuine, so it should be carefully checked who enters European countries. But again, that is all the more reason to conduct proper individual assessments.

    What signal to send to Russia’s population?

    Importantly, accepting Russians who are fleeing draft, also sends a clear signal to Russia’s population and leadership, and to the world. It signals that Europe takes the moral high ground, does not let its objective asylum policies be clouded by anti-Russian emotions.

    It signals that the EU values human rights and sticks to international agreements, no matter where refugees come from, and even, as in the case of Russia, if they come from the aggressor. It will send a signal to the world that what Russia is doing, is wrong.

    Additionally, a large and growing Russian diaspora outside of Russia, with full access to more objective news coverage than what they had at home, could also become a powerful force of opposition to Russia’s leadership, working together from abroad and sharing what they hear and see about the war from outside of Russia, with family and friends left behind in Russia.

    Furthermore, if Europe would completely close its borders to Russian men, whether through normal visa procedures of through the asylum process, that will only fuel Putin’s rhetoric about the West waging a war on Russia and might dishearten the many Russians who are probably opposed to this war; if the West opens up its borders to Russians fleeing their regime, that actually undermines Putin’s narrative.

    On a more practical note, the more men who are fleeing Russia, the fewer Russia will have to mobilise and fight in Ukraine, which is also why Ukrainian President Zelensky appealed to Russian men to defy the mobilisation and basically offer them asylum in Ukraine.

    The need to support non-EU countries in receiving Russian refugees

    Finally, as mentioned in the beginning of this article, the number of Russians fleeing to non-EU countries in Eastern Europe, Turkey and Central Asia are far higher than those fleeing towards the EU.

    The numbers might soon become overwhelming for some of these countries, with prices for hotels and other commodities soaring. In most of these countries, the general population is opposed to this war as well, some countries may fear a future Russian invasion or already have, like Georgia, part of their territory occupied by Russia.

    With such large numbers from Russia fleeing to these countries, it is a key moment for the EU to offer strong support and show that Europe is with them, as well as with the Russians who fled to these countries, who oppose Putin and refuse to fight his war in Ukraine.

    Bram Frouws is director, Mixed Migration Centre.

    This article was first published on the Mixed Migration Centre website: https://mixedmigration.org/articles/how-should-europe-respond-russians-fleeing-military-mobilisation/

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  • Development Banks Should Reform Their Lending Practices

    Development Banks Should Reform Their Lending Practices

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    • Opinion by Alexander Kozul-Wright, Ruurd Brouwer (geneva)
    • Inter Press Service
    • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank share a common goal of raising living standards in their member countries. This week, the two international institutions will convene in Washington DC (through October 16) for their annual meeting. The strength of the US dollar will be a key talking point. By adjusting their lending practices, these institutions have a unique opportunity to relieve suffering in the world’s poorest countries.

    The greenback’s rise has been fuelled by interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Since March, the Fed has raised rates by three percentage points, prompting global investors to move their funds into U.S. financial assets and away from (riskier) EM investments.

    While economists continue to wrangle over their U.S. growth forecasts, this ‘flight to quality’ has sent financial shockwaves across the developing world, already straining under elevated costs for food and fuel – typically priced in U.S. dollars. Moreover, attempts by EM policy makers to stem the dollar’s rise have largely failed.

    Over the course of this year, central banks around the world have drained their U.S. dollar reserves at the fastest rate since 2008. To stem currency depreciations, they have also raised interest rates aggressively. In Argentina, for instance, policy makers raised rates to 75% last month. To little avail.

    The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index, which measures the total return of 25 emerging market currencies against the U.S. Dollar, is down nearly 9 percent from January 1st. The Egyptian pound has depreciated by 20% over the same period, according to Bloomberg data. In Ghana, the Cedi has fallen by 41%.

    On top of higher imports costs, a plunging currency makes the servicing of dollar- denominated debt more expensive. This concern may seem abstract to people in advanced economies. In developing nations, however, the effects are painfully real.

    As the dollar appreciates relative to other currencies, more domestic currency (in the form of tax revenues) has to be generated to service existing dollar debts. For low-income governments, budget cuts have to be implemented in the hope of avoiding sovereign default.

    Currency depreciations have the power to strongarm authorities into reducing health and education spending, just to stay current on their debts. This leaves officials with a grim choice: either risk unleashing a full-blown debt crisis, or confiscate essential public services.

    Given the painful costs of insolvency, governments tend to prioritize austerity over bankruptcy. Together with the oft-publicized effects of lost access to foreign investment, subdued growth and high unemployment, sovereign default also imposes severe social tolls.

    In August, the World Bank published a paper measuring the decline in country living standards – looking at access to food, energy and healthcare – after state bankruptcies. The paper showed that ten years after default, countries experience 13% more infant deaths per year, on average, compared to the synthetic control (counterfactual) group.

    Admittedly, more developed emerging markets like Brazil and India can issue bonds in their own currency to limit budget cutbacks. In most of the world’s poor countries, however, financial markets are too shallow to support domestic lending.

    With no recourse to borrow from private creditors, public bodies like multi-lateral development banks (MDBs) usually step in to fill the gap. Indeed, almost 90% of low-income countries’ (LICs) funding takes the form of concessional, or non-commercial, loans from official lenders.

    Even accounting for these favourable terms, financial pressures are beginning to build outside of well-known hot spots like Lebanon, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. As it stands, LICs have outstanding debts to MDBs and other official creditors to the tune of $153 billion (mostly denominated in USD).

    Given the exogenous trigger for capital outflows from developing countries this year, multi-lateral lenders need to be more innovative. Where possible, they should use their robust credit ratings to assume greater risk by lending to poor countries in domestic currencies.

    Failing that, they could lend in synthetic local currencies. These instruments index dollar debts to local exchange rates, allowing borrowers to service liabilities in their own currency while ensuring that creditors receive payments (both interest and principal) in dollars.

    Synthetic currencies can improve debtor credit profiles by limiting foreign capital outflows and, by extension, improve debt management capacity. In particular, they boost economic resiliency by making government finances less a function of international currency volatility.

    Multilateral financial institutions have been tasked with designing a stable international monetary system to try and ease global poverty. But the loans provided by these groups undermine their own mission, as dollar debts force currency risk onto the countries least able to handle it.

    This week, the World Bank and the IMF will convene in Washington (October 10-16) for their annual meeting. The strength of the USD will be a key talking point. By adjusting their lending practices, these institutions have a unique opportunity to relieve suffering in the world’s poorest countries.

    Alexander Kozul-Wright is a researcher at Third World Network and Ruurd Brouwer is Chief Executive Officer at TCX, a currency hedging firm (https://www.tcxfund.com).

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  • The stock market is in trouble. That’s because the the bond market is ‘very close to a crash.’

    The stock market is in trouble. That’s because the the bond market is ‘very close to a crash.’

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    Don’t assume the worst is over, says investor Larry McDonald.

    There’s talk of a policy pivot by the Federal Reserve as interest rates rise quickly and stocks keep falling. Both may continue.

    McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense,” which described the 2008 failure of Lehman Brothers, expects more turmoil in the bond market, in part, because “there is $50 trillion more in world debt today than there was in 2018.” And that will hurt equities.

    The bond market dwarfs the stock market — both have fallen this year, although the rise in interest rates has been worse for bond investors because of the inverse relationship between rates (yields) and bond prices.

    About 600 institutional investors from 23 countries participate in chats on the Bear Traps site. During an interview, McDonald said the consensus among these money managers is “things are breaking,” and that the Federal Reserve will have to make a policy change fairly soon.

    Pointing to the bond-market turmoil in the U.K., McDonald said government bonds that mature in 2061 were trading at 97 cents to the dollar in December, 58 cents in August and as low as 24 cents over recent weeks.

    When asked if institutional investors could simply hold on to those bonds to avoid booking losses, he said that because of margin calls on derivative contracts, some institutional investors were forced to sell and take massive losses.

    Read: British bond market turmoil is sign of sickness growing in markets

    And investors haven’t yet seen the financial statements reflecting those losses — they happened too recently. Write-downs of bond valuations and the booking of losses on some of those will hurt bottom-line results for banks and other institutional money managers.

    Interest rates aren’t high, historically

    Now, in case you think interest rates have already gone through the roof, check out this chart, showing yields for 10-year U.S. Treasury notes
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.898%

    over the past 30 years:

    The yield on 10-year Treasury notes has risen considerably as the Federal Reserve has tightened during 2022, but it is at an average level if you look back 30 years.


    FactSet

    The 10-year yield is right in line with its 30-year average. Now look at the movement of forward price-to-earnings ratios for S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.03%

    since March 31, 2000, which is as far back as FactSet can go for this metric:


    FactSet

    The index’s weighted forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.4 is way down from its level two years ago. However, it is not very low when compared to the average of 16.3 since March 2000 or to the 2008 crisis-bottom valuation of 8.8.

    Then again, rates don’t have to be high to hurt

    McDonald said that interest rates didn’t need to get anywhere near as high as they were in 1994 or 1995 — as you can see in the first chart — to cause havoc, because “today there is a lot of low-coupon paper in the world.”

    “So when yields go up, there is a lot more destruction” than in previous central-bank tightening cycles, he said.

    It may seem the worst of the damage has been done, but bond yields can still move higher.

    Heading into the next Consumer Price Index report on Oct. 13, strategists at Goldman Sachs warned clients not to expect a change in Federal Reserve policy, which has included three consecutive 0.75% increases in the federal funds rate to its current target range of 3.00% to 3.25%.

    The Federal Open Market Committee has also been pushing long-term interest rates higher through reductions in its portfolio of U.S. Treasury securities. After reducing these holdings by $30 billion a month in June, July and August, the Federal Reserve began reducing them by $60 billion a month in September. And after reducing its holdings of federal agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $17.5 billion a month for three months, the Fed began reducing these holdings by $35 billion a month in September.

    Bond-market analysts at BCA Research led by Ryan Swift wrote in a client note on Oct. 11 that they continued to expect the Fed not to pause its tightening cycle until the first or second quarter of 2023. They also expect the default rate on high-yield (or junk) bonds to increase to 5% from the current rate of 1.5%. The next FOMC meeting will be held Nov. 1-2, with a policy announcement on Nov. 2.

    McDonald said that if the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate by another 100 basis points and continues its balance-sheet reductions at current levels, “they will crash the market.”

    A pivot may not prevent pain

    McDonald expects the Federal Reserve to become concerned enough about the market’s reaction to its monetary tightening to “back away over the next three weeks,” announce a smaller federal funds rate increase of 0.50% in November “and then stop.”

    He also said that there will be less pressure on the Fed following the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 8.

    Don’t miss: Dividend yields on preferred stocks have soared. This is how to pick the best ones for your portfolio.

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  • Central Bank Myths Drag down World Economy

    Central Bank Myths Drag down World Economy

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    • Opinion by Jomo Kwame Sundaram, Anis Chowdhury (sydney and kuala lumpur)
    • Inter Press Service

    Myth 1: Inflation chokes growth

    The common narrative is that inflation hurts growth. Major central banks (CBs), the Bretton Woods institutions (BWIs) and the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) all insist inflation harms growth despite all evidence to the contrary. The myth is based on a few, very exceptional cases.

    “Once-in-a-generation inflation in the US and Europe could choke off global growth, with a global recession possible in 2023”, claimed the World Economic Forum Chief Economist’s Outlook under the headline, “Inflation Will Lead Inexorably To Recession”.

    The Atlantic recently warned, “Inflation Is Bad… raising the prospect of a period of economic stagnation or even a recession”. The Economist claims, “It hurts investment and makes most people poorer”.

    Without evidence, the narrative claims causation runs from inflation to growth, with inevitable “adverse” consequences. But serious economists have found no conclusive supporting evidence.

    World Bank chief economist Michael Bruno and William Easterly asked, “Is inflation harmful to growth?” With data from 31 countries for 1961-94, they concluded, “The ratio of fervent beliefs to tangible evidence seems unusually high on this topic, despite extensive previous research”.

    OECD evidence for 1961-2021 – Figures 1a & 1b – updates Bruno & Easterly, again contradicting the ‘standard narrative’ of major CBs, BWIs, BIS and others. The inflation-growth relationship is strongly positive when 1974-75 – severe oil spike recession years – are excluded.

    The relationship does not become negative even when 1974-75 are included. Also, the “Great Inflation” of 1965-82 did not harm growth. Hence, there is no empirical basis for setting a particular threshold, such as the now standard 2% inflation target – long acknowledged as “plucked from the air”!

    Developing countries also have a positive inflation-growth relationship if extreme cases – e.g., inflation rates in excess of 20%, or ‘excessively’ impacted by commodity price volatilities, civil strife, war – are omitted (Figures 2a & 2b).

    Figure 2a summarizes evidence for 82 developing countries during 1991-2021. Although slightly weakened, the positive relationship remained, even if the 1981-90 debt crises years are included (Figure 2b).

    Myth 2: Inflation always accelerates

    Another popular myth is that once inflation begins, it has an inherent tendency to accelerate. As inflation supposedly tends to speed up, not acting decisively to nip it in the bud is deemed dangerous. So, the IMF chief economist advises, “Don’t let inflation ‘genie’ out of the bottle”. Hence, inflation has to be ‘nipped in the bud’.

    But, in fact, OECD inflation has never exceeded 16% in the past six decades, including the 1970s’ oil shock years. Inflation does not accelerate easily, even when labour has more bargaining power, or wages are indexed to consumer prices – as in some countries.

    Bruno & Easterly only found a high likelihood of inflation accelerating when inflation exceeded 40%. Two MIT economists – Rüdiger Dornbusch and Stanley Fischer, later International Monetary Fund Deputy Managing Director – came to a similar conclusion, describing 15–30% inflation as “moderate”.

    Dornbusch & Fischer also stressed, “Most episodes of moderate inflation were triggered by commodity price shocks and were brief; very few ended in higher inflation”. Importantly, they warned, “such inflations can be reduced only at a substantial … cost to growth”.

    Myth 3: Hyperinflation threatens

    Although extremely rare, avoiding hyperinflation has become the pretext for central bankers prioritizing inflation prevention. Hyperinflation – at rates over 50% for at least a month – is undoubtedly harmful for growth. But as IMF research shows, “Since 1947, hyperinflations in market economies have been rare”.

    Many of the worst hyperinflation episodes in history were after World War Two and the Soviet demise. Bruno & Easterly also mention breakdowns of economic and political systems – as in Iran or Nicaragua, following revolutions overthrowing corrupt despotic regimes.

    A White House staff blog noted, “The inflationary period after World War II is likely a better comparison for the current economic situation than the 1970s and suggests that inflation could quickly decline once supply chains are fully online and pent-up demand levels off”.

    Myth 4: Evidence-based policymaking

    Central bankers love to claim their policymaking is evidence-based. They cite one another and famous economists to enhance the aura of CB “credibility”.

    Unsurprisingly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand promoted its arbitrary 2% inflation target mainly by endless repetition – not strong evidence or superior logic. They simply “devoted a huge amount of effort” to preaching the new mantra “to everybody who would listen – and some who were reluctant to listen”.

    The narrative also suited those concerned about wage pressures. Fighting inflation has provided an excuse to further weaken workers’ working conditions and pay. Thus, labour’s share of income has been declining since the 1970s.

    Greater central bank independence (from the executive) has enhanced the influence and power of financial interests – largely at the expense of the real economy. Output and employment growth weakened as a result, worsening the lot of the many, especially in the global South.

    Fact: Central banks induce recessions

    Inappropriate CB policies have often slowed economic growth without mitigating inflation. Hawkish CB responses to inflation can become self-fulfilling prophecies with high inflation seemingly associated with recessions or growth collapses.

    Before becoming Fed chair, Ben Bernanke’s research team concluded, “an important part of the effect of oil price shocks on the economy results not from the change in oil prices, per se, but from the resulting tightening of monetary policy”.

    Thus, central bank interventions have caused contractions without reducing inflation. The longest US recession after the Great Depression – in the early 1980s – was due to Fed chair Paul Volcker’s 1979-81 interest rate hikes.

    A New York Times opinion-editorial recently warned, “The Powell pivot to tighter money in 2021 is the equivalent of Mr. Volcker’s 1981 move”, and “the 2020s economy could resemble the 1980s”.

    Fearing an “extremely severe” world recession, Columbia University history professor Adam Tooze has summed up the current CBs’ interest rate hike frenzy as “the single most dramatic simultaneous tightening of monetary policy ever”!

    Phobias, especially if based on unfounded beliefs, never offer good bases for sound policymaking.

    IPS UN Bureau


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  • How to Get on Track to Eradicate Extreme Poverty

    How to Get on Track to Eradicate Extreme Poverty

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    The Graduation approach’s impact goes well beyond that of the individual participant. Not only does the household greatly benefit from its various interventions, but now studies show subsequent generations are able to stay out of the poverty trap. (Rangpur, Bangladesh). Credit: BRAC/2021
    • Opinion by Gregory Chen (washington dc)
    • Inter Press Service
    • Gregory Chen is Managing Director of BRAC’s Ultra-Poor Graduation Initiative

    Though we cannot blame the recent crises alone. Even before the crises of the past few years the globe was beginning to realize addressing extreme poverty required new approaches. Economic growth alone remains insufficient and conventional anti-poverty policies and programs were not addressing the root problems affecting the most marginalized.

    What can countries do to end the most severe forms of poverty?

    While private organizations like BRAC (where I work) have a role to play, it is governments that are best positioned to take the lead tackling extreme poverty at scale. Governments have the mandate, the infrastructure, and the financing to transform the lives of the most vulnerable people.

    Governments increasingly recognize a growing body of research which tells us people in extreme poverty face multiple reinforcing barriers – a lack of nutrition, education, and social exclusion which contribute to a deficit of hope and self-confidence. Together, these multiple factors create a poverty trap that is challenging to escape. Addressing only a few of these barriers at a time is insufficient for people out of poverty traps. Many governments have begun to recognize this in the past decade as growth lifted many out of poverty but large pockets of people remained excluded.

    Escaping a poverty trap requires a “big push” – a significant transfer of resources and support that can address multiple barriers in one go. One “big push” proven to break the poverty trap is referred to as the Graduation approach (though it may be called different things in diverse settings). Graduation is a sequenced set of interventions that address the unique circumstances of poverty within the local context. This approach meets participants’ day-to-day needs, provides training and assets for income generation, financial literacy and savings support, and social empowerment through community engagement and life skills training – all facilitated through coaching that calls for regular interactions with participants.

    A period of intense coaching enables participants to build resilience and self-confidence by empowering them to save, diversify their sources of income, access safety nets, and develop coping mechanisms to major shocks and build up self confidence. These combined interventions are delivered in a 2-3 year time bound period, empowering participants to begin an upward trajectory out of extreme poverty and with greater ability to link to wider government support.

    Graduation programs are designed to positively impact all household members, but the approach focuses on direct engagement with working age women. These women are disproportionately affected by extreme poverty and most likely to use their greater capacities to reinvest in their households’ development.

    At its core, Graduation is about recognizing that when empowered with the right tools and resources, people can be agents of change for themselves, their households, and their communities.

    A high return on investment

    The Graduation approach is an investment with returns that grow over time. Rigorous evaluations report that four years after participants start, Graduation delivered benefits that began to exceed program costs. Compared to standalone narrower interventions like lump sum cash transfers, after 3 to 4 years after the initial intervention, Graduation programs deliver greater household benefits – including greater consumption, income, and savings. Research from India shows that ten years after starting the program, participants see approximately 400% ROI, and projections suggest this return could reach 1100% over the participant’s lifetime. Since the investment is time limited and may not be repeated its ROI over the longer term can save costs and build resilience.

    Many Government are Adopting Graduation

    Due to Graduation’s proven impact, many governments are investing in the approach, integrating it into existing programs. It is estimated that more than 15 government programs have developed Graduation approaches across Latin American, Africa, and Asia. Among them include governments in Kenya, the Philippines, and India. These are most often not new standalone programs but integrated within existing Graduation programs, where the Graduation package is particularly emphasized for certain target populations.

    In the Philippines, despite the many challenges created by COVID-19 in 2020, participants in the Philippines’ Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) Graduation program had more resilient livelihoods and better savings and financial management, according to Asian Development Bank (ADB). The Government of the Philippines is now on its second iteration of Graduation integration offered through the Department of Social Welfare and Development with support from ADB and the Australian government.

    The Government of Kenya is also investing in Graduation with the Kenya: Social and Economic Inclusion Project (KSEIP) in partnership with Global Development Incubator, BOMA Project, Village Enterprise, the World Bank, and the UK government (FCDO). Following a successful pilot in 2019, KSEIP will transition from a narrower unconditional cash transfer to a fuller package of Graduation.

    A Few Leading Governments are Implementing at Scale

    Some governments have moved beyond testing to delivering at scale. In the Province of Bihar in India, a large rural development program (called JEEViKA) established a special window for a Graduation program known as Satat Jevvikoparjan Yojana (SJY), which has reached 140,000 households in extreme poverty since 2018. Other Provinces in India may follow suit expanding their own Graduation programs as well. Additionally, countries such as Ethiopia and South Africa are looking to further adapt their already large scale programs with more Graduation elements added that can deliver long term results.

    As governments implement scaled programs we have reasons to be confident that these investments will bring durable results. While we must address today’s crises, our work to dramatically reduce and eliminate extreme poverty will not happen with slipshod short-term band-aids. Governments can begin to fully address extreme poverty with smart investments that will over time lead to permanent changes that eliminate extreme poverty.

    While governments will lead, they cannot do it alone. The international community, particularly multilateral institutions, can provide the financing required to operate at scale. NGOs and community-based institutions can be partners in last mile delivery assisting the government where needed. Researchers can focus their methods more on how scaled programs operate (rather than on repeat small scale impact evaluations) so that we can make wider decisions on adapting for scale.

    It is high time for us to lean on the evidence, evolve programmatically, put government in the lead, and benefit from all the testing and research that has led us to solutions that can work.

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  • Israel’s Democracy is in Peril

    Israel’s Democracy is in Peril

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    Prime Minister Yair Lapid of Israel addresses the UN General Assembly’s seventy-seventh session. September 2022. He told delegates a two-State solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was “the right thing” for Israel, but he cautioned that a future Palestinian state must not be “another terror base”. Credit: UN Photo/Cia Pak
    • Opinion by Alon Ben-Meir (new york)
    • Inter Press Service

    Righting the Wrong

    Israel is now in the midst of its fifth election in four years. None of the coalition governments that were formed during this period has lasted more than a year. Why is that? The answer is fairly simple but extremely troubling.

    Although the political parties are broadly divided into two camps, left vs. right, nearly fifteen political parties are running for 120 seats in the Knesset (Parliament). Most, but not all, will pass the threshold of 3.25 percent to qualify for the minimum of four seats.

    The country’s political squabbles are centered around personalities and not policies: who gets what position in the government, how to lure or bribe this or the other party’s leader to join the government, which ministry the numerous contending politicians want to hold (regardless of qualifications), the financial appropriations promised for pet projects, and the list goes on.

    And to cap it all, just about every head of each party feels they are the most qualified to become the prime minister, yet none can clearly articulate a national agenda to set the nation on a steady course to safeguard its democracy and political stability.

    The gravest threat to Israel’s democracy, however, is the sheer failure of all party leaders to grasp that the country is polarized and divided almost evenly between the anti-Netanyahu and pro-Netanyahu blocs (which largely but not exclusively align with left and right), and that neither of the political blocs has been able to form a functioning coalition government that enjoys a stable majority in the Knesset.

    Presently, numerous polls which are conducted almost daily show that the result of the coming election will not be much different. The competing two blocks are hovering around 57 and 59 seats, and the country may well have to endure another exhausting cycle of elections and still end up with roughly the same configuration.

    One would think that under such circumstances—when the country is existentially threatened by Iran which is racing toward acquiring nuclear weapons, when the West Bank is simmering with violence and Palestinian casualties are mounting, when the prospect of a Palestinian uprising of unprecedented scale is becoming increasingly plausible, when extremist groups such Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah pose an omnipresent danger, when social cohesiveness is sourly lacking, when poverty is rampant and debilitating the social fabric—the leaders of all parties would come to their senses and put the nation’s interest above their own and their party’s.

    Together, one would expect that they would seek common ground and reach a consensus to address the urgent issues facing the nation. But that is not the case.

    The extent of Israel’s political malaise and the erosion of its democracy cannot be better exemplified by any other than the despicable former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. No prime minister in Israel’s history has been as corrupt or would stoop so low to get his way like Netanyahu.

    His lust for power knows no bounds. He faces three criminal charges and is willing to destroy the judiciary to make these charges disappear. He is willing to sell the soul of the nation to the likes of Itamar Ben-Gvir, the fascist, Kahanist leader of Otzma Yehudit who is known to seek the expulsion of all Palestinians from Israel, as long as he could help Netanyahu form the next government.

    So, when you have a country that has been governed consecutively for more than 12 years by a bigot like Netanyahu who potentially can still form the new government, you know that Israel’s democracy is suffering from an endemic malaise and needs major political remedies.

    Just like here in the US, if the Republican party manages to cheat its way through the electoral college and Trump, the most morally bankrupt former president, wins the next presidential election in 2024, our democracy will be shattered and the American dream will wither and die. Israel could face the same fate under Netanyahu.

    Thus, if Netanyahu is left with an ounce of dignity and a shred of concern for the nation’s future, he should step aside, face the court with poise, and ask for forgiveness and President Herzog may well pardon him for his service to the nation. This will pave the way for the establishment of a stable wide-based coalition government that can endure and attend to the urgent business of the country.

    More than any time in its history, Israel today is in desperate need of a decent, honest, courageous, visionary, and decisive leader to meet the call of the hour. Yair Lapid meets some of the above attributes. He has demonstrated exemplary capability of making the necessary compromises to reach a consensus for the sake of the country.

    He is politically savvy and has shown that in his meetings and dealings with global leaders. He demonstrated courage when he stated at the UN General Assembly that the a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains the only viable option.

    He bravely spoke time and again against the occupation and its demoralizing effect on the entire country. He passionately advocated for equality among Israeli Jews and Arabs, and called for lifting the poor out of their miserable existence. And finally, he strived to nurture a healthy and cohesive society which is the beating heart that sustains democracy.

    This round of elections may well be one of the most consequential since Israel occupied the West Bank in 1967. Every political leader, regardless of his or her political leanings, should ask themselves what kind of a country Israel should be in 10 to 15 years. The Israelis want unity of purpose, they want to preserve their democracy, prosperity, security, and peace.

    Normalizing relations with more Arab countries is of paramount importance and it should be pursued, but it will not save Israel’s democracy. Nor will using Israel’s remarkable new technologies to buy political influence abroad, however desirable that may be.

    Nor will multiplying its trade with foreign nations, which is extremely vital to Israel’s economy and should be further expanded. Nor will maintaining its military prowess and credible deterrence, which is critical to the country’s national security.

    Nor will making remarkable advances in just about every sphere of endeavor, including medicine, agronomy, chemistry, military innovations, engineering, electronics, and so many other fields, which are outstanding achievements that every Israeli should be proud of. Indeed, regardless of how crucial all of the above are to the country, none will preserve and safeguard Israel’s democracy.

    Israel cannot secure and sustain its democracy unless the political leadership engenders social cohesiveness and equality with a functioning political system that offers political stability and where the national interests come first.

    Moreover, Israel cannot and will never be a free nation and a true democracy until it ends the infamous occupation which dishonors Israel at every turn. It is, to be sure, the Achilles’ heel that will eventually make or break Israel’s democracy.

    Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University (NYU). He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies for over 20 years.

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  • The Allure of Strongmen

    The Allure of Strongmen

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    • Opinion by Jan Lundius (stockholm)
    • Inter Press Service

    I get along very well with Erdogan. The tougher and meaner they are, the better I get along with them. — Donald Trump

    The Halo Effect is a tendency to unconditionally accommodate positive impressions of a single individual, a cognitive bias that influence personal opinions and feelings in a wide array of areas – religion, morals, patriotism, etc. The Halo Effect makes it possible for a political leader to exercise complete authority over millions of people. Historic and terrifying examples of this are the Führer Adolf Hitler, the Vozhd Joseph Stalin, the Duce Benito Mussolini, and the Great Helmsman Mao Zedong.

    This is far from being a recent phenomenon, some examples of Strongmen are power-hungry personalities like Qin Shi Huangdi, Augustus, Djingis Khan, Napoleon Bonaparte, Shaka, Suharto, and Kim Il-Sung. Individuals guilty of leading their supporters into an Inferno of violence and misery. Political Strongmen generally maintain their grip on other people’s minds through lies and myths, while manipulating mass media to spread propaganda and fake news, as well as organizing spectacles and mass rallies,

    In his book Sapiens, Yuval Noah Harari mentions that chimpanzees, the human specie’s closest relatives, have social instincts allowing them to form friendships and hierarchies that facilitate communal hunting, gathering and defense against predators. However, thousands of chimps cannot create a stock market, a United Nations, a Vatican. They cannot unite behind an Alpha Male, or topple him through a revolution, nor create a Government ruled by common law, or build a temple.

    What makes humans unique is their sophisticated use of language, making it possible to ”gossip”, i.e. to talk about who is courting whom, who is a cheat, and who is an honest person. Such information may keep together a group of twenty, or fifty members, but seldom more than a hundred individuals. To achieve mass mobilization for work or war, much more than plain gossip is needed. According to Harari this is made possible through humans’ ability to fantasize and share their stories with others.

    It is abstract notions that bind us together. Tales about deities, life after death, human rights, laws and justice. Human constructs like money and nations are based on mental innovations that have become materialized. The majority of the world’s population no longer belongs to tribes where sorcerers and priests told tales about guardian spirits and divine punishments. Instead we trust business-people, artists, priests and lawyers. Most of us are now living in a world governed by huge business corporations, mass media, sophisticated weaponry and manipulating politicians, maintained through shared myths and ideas.

    Through preserved texts, computers and other means of communication we are now able to continuously increase and store large quantities of knowledge. And not only that, we are able to store and maintain information that actually is alien to ”reality” – invented conspiracies, ghosts, nations, limited liability companies, and even human rights. Fantasies are transformed into an actual existence.

    We are gradually distancing ourselves from nature, creating our own world. However, this does not mean that we have got rid of our animal instincts. We are still likely to become subordinated to alpha males who use mental innovations to subdue us through repressive violence. chauvinism, and various kinds of media manipulation.

    Even if Strongmen have been with us throughout human history, this does not mean that the phenomenon has constantly dominated our entire existence. Like all human behaviour, domination of our species is submitted to trends and change. It now seems to exist a current global trend that favours a return of the Strongman, combined with a spreading disrespect of compassion, human rights and a shared responsibility for the well-being of our world and planet.

    The world’s two most populous nations, India and China, are currently under the spell of increasingly autocratic leaders. In India Naendra Modi, leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Indian People’s Party, was once accused of condoning the Gujarat riots in 2002, when at least 790 Muslims and 250 Hindus were killed, followed by further outbreaks of violence against the minority Muslim population in the federal state of Gujarat, where Modi was Chief Minister. He is now the undisputed leader of the Indian Republic. According to the respected Indian historian Ramachandra Guha since May 2014, the vast resources of the State have been devoted to making the prime minister the face of every programme, every advertisement, every poster. Modi is India, India is Modi.

    The 2019 Balakot Airstrike, during which Indian warplanes bombed alleged terrorist training camps inside Pakistan, Modi’s support increased and during the general election campaign that followed Modi declared: ”When you vote for the Lotus , you are not pushing a button but pressing a trigger to shoot terrorists in the head.”

    In China, the hitherto all dominating Communist Party has become ”rejuvenated” and strengthened under the leadership of Xi Jinping and the party propaganda machine is creating a cult of personality around Xi Dada, Uncle Xi, whose presidential time limit was abolished in 2018, meaning that he could stay in power for life. Xi Jinping Thought has been incorporated in the Chinese Constitution, a distinction previously only accorded to Mao Zedong.

    Unchallenged autocratic regimes are maintained in several nations, like those of Saudi Arabia’s royal family and the emirs in the United Emirates. The political and ruthless repression in North Korea continues unabated under the Sogun, Military First, policy of the Il-sung dynasty. However, Strongmen are present within several democracies, ostentatiously in countries like Russia, the Philippines, Turkey, the Republic of India, Hungary, Israel, as well as in the US and several nations in Latin America and Africa. Even if such politicians use to state they respect ”democratic norms”, they are nevertheless intent to erode them.

    A common trait among Strongmen seems to be efforts to limit judicial independence. Both Saudi Arabia’s bin Salman and China’s Xi Jinping have used much needed ”anti-corruption campaigns” to get rid of opponents, while terrifying several members of their nations’ political elite. In China over a million people have been arrested and imprisoned in connection with such campaigns, while some have been executed. Poland’s Kaczynski and Hungary’s Orbán have changed constitutional arrangements to bring courts under their control. Donald Trump has rather than lauding the US’ independent courts and free elections, castigated judges as biased if they ruled against him and famously tried to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Like Trump, Natanyahu in Israel and Bolsonaro in Brazil have complained about ”fake news” and a ”deep state” working against them. When Nethanyahu lost power in 2021 he made Trump-like claims that he had the been victim of the ”greatest election fraud in the history of any democracy.”

    In Turkey more than 4,000 judges and prosecutors were purged, as well as academicians and army officers, after a State of Emergency had been declared by Erdo?an in 2016. The concept of The Deep State has for decades been used by Erdo?an to label opponents among traditional politicians and it was adopted by Trump when he declared that he was going to ”drain the swamp of Washington”.

    Political Strongmen have a tendency to scoff at ”political correctness”, generally connected with human rights’ advocates, supporters of minorities and environmentalists. In spite of their dictatorial cravings, Strongmen like to state they are supported by the ”common people”, declaring that even if they disdain institutions they love ”the people”. Their politics are funded on the concept of ”we and them”, ”black or white”, and the ones who are not with me are against me. Opponents are ridiculed and demonized as ”outsiders” or ”perverts”, epithets attached to immigrants, as well as ethnic-, religious- and/or sexual minorities. It is also common to accuse shady foreign forces of plotting against the Nation. Russian and Chinese politicians regularly refer to ”Western plots to split the Nation”. Or, like Orbán, indicate that sinister, global cabals are trying to annihilate Hungarian culture by promoting mass migration and ”liberal dissolution of morals”. His favorite scapegoat is the philanthropist Georg Soros, who also have had the honour of being denounced by Putin, Trump, Erdo?an, Orbán and Bolsonaro.

    Popular scapegoats can also be the EU, NATO, neighbouring nations, or Superpowers. Muslims are often sorted out as particularly dangerous, not only fanatics and terrorists, but all of them. Blaming ”others” is a simple solution to complex problems. A simplicity expressed in three words slogans – ”Get Brexit Done!”, ”Build the Wall!”, ”Law and Order!”, ”Lock them Up!”, or even in two words like ”Americans (or Italians, Hungarians, Swedes, etc.) First!”

    Much more could be written about political Strongmen, let us, however, return to the enigmatic Vladimir Putin. In 2018, his powerful press secretary Dmitry Peskov, multi-millionaire as so many of Putin’s closest associates, declared;

    There’s a demand in the world for special sovereign leaders, for decisive ones who do not fit into general frameworks and so on. Putin’s Russia was the starting point.

    Main Sources: Rachman, Gideon (2022) The Age of the Strongman: How the Cult of the Leader Threatens Democracy Around the World and Harari, Yuval Noah (2014) Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind.

    IPS UN Bureau


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  • Energy Transition: Is it Time for Africa to Talk Tough?

    Energy Transition: Is it Time for Africa to Talk Tough?

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    Tanzanian officials tour the Kingfisher upstream oil project in Uganda. The African Union has adopted a position of energy access which includes deploying all forms of energy resources, including non-renewable and renewables, to address the energy crisis in the continent. Credit: Wambi Michael/IPS
    • Opinion by Wambi Michael (kampala)
    • Inter Press Service

    “EU Stop neocolonialism and imperialism on Uganda’s oil projects,” reads the placard that Kisembo holding. Next to Kisembo is Lucas Eikiriza with a message: “Our pipeline is safe, EU stand aside”.

    While there is opposition to the planned construction of a 1,443km pipeline from Uganda through Tanzania and Tilenga and Kingfisher upstream oil projects in Uganda, Kisembo told IPS that he has, over the last 16 years, patiently waited to see oil flow from this formerly sleepy and remote part of Uganda.

    “I have not seen that oil with my eyes, but I’m already seeing the benefits. The roads are very good now, there were grass-thatched huts all over my village, but those have been replaced with iron-roofed (ones) thanks to oil that was discovered in Bunyoro,” Kisembo told IPS. “So when I heard that the Europeans want the government to stop the projects, I said that we, the young Banyoro, should stand up against that nonsense just like our forefathers fought the British colonialists.”

    TotalEnergies and its partner China National Offshore Oil Corporation ((CNOOC) in February decided to invest more than $10 billion into Lake Albert Development Project.

    The landscape in Buliisa and Hoima districts has drastically changed with a number of needed infrastructures like the Central Processing Facility, an international airport, and well pads under construction.

    “Everyone is going to gain. Anytime I’m sure that everybody is going to enjoy this oil and the developments which are coming in,” said Peter Mayanja, a real estate dealer and owner of Farm Bridge Investments, told IPS

    President Yoweri Museveni in February said, “This project is a very important one for this region. This money will boost our economy,”

    The EU parliament in mid-September adopted a resolution denouncing the Tilenga and EACOP projects by TotalEnergies, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, or CNOOC Group, backed by the governments of Uganda and Tanzania.

    “Put an end to the extractive activities in protected and sensitive ecosystems, including the shores of Lake Albert,” reads part of the resolution. They suggested that to have a chance to limit global warming to 1,5°C, no new oil extraction project should be developed.

    The resolution has since attracted criticism from Uganda, Tanzania, and from some of the advocates in Africa who believe that Africa should be allowed to harness their oil and gas discoveries to develop their economies as they transition to renewable energy sources.

    Uganda’s Vice President, Jessica Alupo, took the matter to the just concluded UN General Assembly in New York. She said it is hypocritical for countries that have been at the center of polluting the environment to preach to countries that have borne the impact of those environmental violations how to act responsibly. “Our view is that development should be environmentally friendly, inclusive, and provide benefits for all; it should leave no one behind,” Alupo said

    While Uganda’s International Relations Minister, Henry Okello Oryem, told IPS, “So the European don’t want Africa to develop its natural resources? And yet it is the only way to solve our problems. Our people continue to cut trees as the cheapest source of fuel. So if we don’t avail them with alternatives like gas, who will?” asked Oryem.

    On the other hand, Proscovia Nabbanja, the chief executive of the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC), which has stakes in EACOP, told IPS that the suggestion by the wealthier nations to Africa and other developing countries to leave their oil and gas underground was unfair.

    “While I understand the concerns related to climate change, I don’t want to ignore the value that the projects bring to alleviate energy poverty, which is a critical issue in Uganda, improving the economy, and also propelling our country to industrialization,” said Nabbanja.

    Uganda expects 160,000 jobs to be created by the projects located in Uganda’s Albertine Graben, bordering DRC. The East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) is expected to create five thousand jobs during its construction.

    NJ Ayuk, executive chair of the African Energy Chamber lobby group told IPS the EU Parliament’s resolution was part of the overall move to block the extraction of oil and gas in Africa. He said apart from Uganda’s case, there are similar attempts to block fight the proposed onshore liquefied natural gas project at Lindi — which could help commercialize about 50 trillion cubic feet of offshore gas by Tanzania.

    Ayuk told IPS that some of the campaigns are being funded by groups from the west to civil society organizations based in countries that have vast oil and gas resources.

    Sizeable deposits of oil and gas have been discovered in Uganda, Namibia, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Ghana, Angola, DRC, and South Sudan, among others.

    “I want the civil society to fiercely advocate for the environment so that we don’t have any kind of environmental risks. But it is important that they don’t put out misinformation,” said Ayuk. “It is really important because that misinformation comes to the detriment of young people who need jobs. It comes to the detriment of a country that needs investment, that wants to grow. That wants to survive on its resources without going for aid.”

    He said the drive against investment in fossil fuel in Africa is an ideological position from the western countries against Africa’s oil and gas discoveries.

    “Africans are asking themselves why should we pay the price and punishment for western countries that have taken our resources, have invested and developed their economies, and now that it is our time, you tell us that we cannot because it is going to hurt the environment. When you were doing it, didn’t you think it was going to hurt the environment?” asked Ayuk.

    Modestus Martin Lumato, Director General Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority (EWURA), who recently visited Uganda, told IPS that 70% of Tanzania’s power generation is from natural gas and that abandoning it that fast would negatively impact the country.

    “Sixty of our industries are powered by natural gas. In 2010 we discovered a huge deposit of natural gas in the deep sea; Tanzania is looking forward to exporting it. We expect oil and gas companies to invest over $30 billion in a project planned to produce 10 million tons per annum,” said Lumato.

    Tanzania’s natural gas reserves are said to be equivalent to US$150 billion- or 6-times Tanzania’s current GDP.

    COP 27 Africa to Talk Tough

    A number of meetings have been held in Africa in preparation for the 27th UN Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP27) will be held in Egypt from November 7 to 18, 2022.

    In mid-July, a technical committee of the African Union adopted “The African Common Position on Energy Access and Just Transition”. It stipulates that Africa will continue to deploy all forms of its abundant energy resources, including non-renewable and renewable, to address the energy crisis in the continent.

    This position was discussed at the 4th Africa Climate talks at the University Eduardo Mondlane in Maputo, Mozambique, as well as African Climate Week in Togo.

    Linus Mafor, a Senior Environmental Affairs Officer leading work on energy, infrastructure, and climate change at the African Climate Policy, said the Africa position was aimed at attaining sustainable energy for Africa.

    He told IPS that Africa accounts for 17% of the global population and contributes to less than 4% of emissions, and it is the least energized region in the world.

    “Africa is home to 78% of people who don’t have electricity; at the same time, it needs to industrialize, it needs to close the development gap to meet the SDG. So there should be a win-win situation. Let Africa use its natural gas as a transition fuel to renewable energy,” said Mafor.

    According to Mafor, energy poverty is holding Africa from development. “Africa has got a rich source of energy, whether fossils or renewables. The demand is there, but the supply is not there; we can’t progress on SDGs or Africa Union Agenda 2063 if there is a huge energy access problem that is not addressed,” he said

    The African Union, through UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), has indicated that over the past ten years, less than two percent of the public clean energy investment globally went to Africa.

    That finding was buttressed by the International Energy Agency’s  Cost of Capital Dashboard launched this month. It observed that emerging and developing economies, excluding China, account for less than one-fifth of global investment in clean energy.

    One of the key barriers, according to IEA, is a high cost of capital, reflecting some real and perceived risks about investment in these economies

    The COP26 in Glasgow noted with regret that developed country parties had not met the $100 billion goal annually. At COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, the African Group wants developed country parties to agree to honor the $100 billion in climate finance promise.

    The Special Representative of COP27, President-Designate Wael Aboulmagd, has indicated the developed countries have fallen short of delivering the $100 billion.

    “It has never been delivered … But what people don’t talk about is if we had the $100 billion, would we be much better off? The $100 is an arbitrary figure that was put out of thin air that has no reality on the ground,” observed Aboulmagd.

    “We as responsible global citizens said we will come along on the understanding that appropriate funding will be there. So this trust has been broken by failure to deliver year, after year,” said Aboulmagd.

    According to Aboulmagd, at present, only 2% of renewable energy investment from the private sector goes to Africa.

    “With more than 600 million in Africa lacking access to basic electricity, universal access to energy is a priority,” he said.

    Back in Uganda and Tanzania, Ayuk told IPS that citizens like Zephaniah and Mayanja, and Awadh should be worried about campaigns trying to block projects like Lake Albert Development and EACOP.

    “They should be worried because there is a very strong movement saying the money should not come into African oil and gas. I think we need to rally African financing for projects.”

    IPS UN Bureau Report


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  • Successful Climate Solutions Require Investment in the Lives of Adolescent Girls

    Successful Climate Solutions Require Investment in the Lives of Adolescent Girls

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    Adolescent girls collecting water, Luweero, Uganda. Credit: Esther Nsapu/Education Development Center (EDC)
    • Opinion by Amy West, Sharon Iwachu (washington dc)
    • Inter Press Service

    On December 19, 2011, the UN General Assembly adopted Resolution 66/170 declaring October 11 as the International Day of the Girl Child.

    In light of the triple planetary crisis of climate change, air pollution and biodiversity highlighted in UN Common Agenda consultations in August, the vital role adolescent girls can play in climate-responsive solutions should not be underestimated.

    Adolescent girls are among the most vulnerable to climate stress, natural disasters, and environmental degradation. With women, they are an estimated 80% of those displaced by climate-related disaster and represent 60% of the global population facing chronic hunger due to food insecurity.

    Recent UNFPA studies have established the links between climate change, reduced and lost access to resources, and the pressures that result on households to survive. Families affected by climate change often have limited resources to begin with and even less after an acute weather-related disaster.

    For those dependent on the environment for nutrition, health and household resources, this pressure results in early marriage or trafficking of girls for the sake of generating a source of income and/or reducing a household burden.

    When climate change exacerbates existing inequities or the exclusion of girls – including their protection and access to functional, soft, life and technical skills development – household, community, and national level health and education outcomes are negatively affected; sometimes even for generations.

    But what if we could change this harmful dynamic? What if we could effectively link the resilience, optimism, and resourcefulness of adolescent girls to new ways of investing in climate-related mitigation strategies?

    What if we could turn existing environmental threats into “tipping-point” opportunities for better approaches to and investments in adolescent girls’ social and economic development?

    With the most to lose from the harmful effects of climate change, girls and women also have the most to gain from climate-friendly development strategies that allow them to be active participants in and key contributors to community-led responses.

    Adolescent girls can be the strongest catalysts for behavior and systems change if we understand their existing assets, the spaces they occupy, and the influence – invisible or otherwise – they have within households and communities.

    Findings from an econometric study spanning four decades from the 1960s to early 2000s showed that adolescent girls’ rates of enrollment and retention in school significantly reduced weather-related death, injury and displacement at community level.

    This is because with every year of education or skills training, adolescent girls’ self-confidence, leadership, communication, life and livelihoods skills increased.

    As these more educated and skilled girls enter adulthood, they have greater decision-making power and create demonstrably healthier, safer, and more productive households.

    There is a clear opportunity to connect the dots for those who occupy and are best placed to protect the land and its resources, as well as reinforce the health and safety of their households. In rural areas, especially, adolescent girls will become the next generation’s agricultural labor force.

    If women worldwide are 40% of the agricultural labor force and responsible for more than half the world’s food production, and if education and skills training are prioritized for them, households will move beyond subsistence level farming to engage more as micro-businesses supporting farm-to-table supply and value chains.

    This strengthens women-led engagement in diversifying agricultural approaches, through aquaculture and apiculture, and the connection of these innovations to economic development, as well as better health and nutrition outcomes.

    To this end, climate-adaptive food systems can have a virtuous relationship, sustaining local suppliers and reinforcing local food security, and effectively weather-proofing communities by ensuring that everyone – in particular women and girls – has access to the knowledge and skills to save lives and sustain livelihoods.

    We can take steps to harness the strength and resilience of adolescent girls everywhere even as we act urgently to mitigate the deleterious effects of climate-risk.

    First, we must invest more in secondary education where the highest rates of dropout for girls occurs between lower and upper secondary level. This investment should include building context-relevant climate-smart skills for the resilience of households and communities.

    Second, we must support the start-up of environmentally-friendly and climate-adaptive small businesses as part of workforce development and smart-financing strategies inclusive of adolescent girls and young women, especially in rural areas where green jobs can strengthen rural to urban supply chains and overall food security.

    And finally, we must build community development plans that include ways young people, in particular adolescent girls, can support conservation and climate-risk reduction efforts as part of civic engagement – which will continue to reduce death, injury and displacement.

    Without these forward-thinking investments in adolescent girls as key stakeholders in community development, harmful social and cultural attitudes that pit a woman’s role as a mother or wife against learning and livelihoods (and dismiss her right to own land) will continue, continuing a trend of lost opportunity on the grandest of scales.

    Amy West of Education Development Center and Sharon Iwachu, Global G.L.O.W., Girl Advocacy Committee Alumni with Art of a Child in Uganda. EDC and Global G.L.O.W. are active members in the Coalition for Adolescent Girls (CAG), a member-led and driven organization dedicated to supporting, investing in, and improving the lives of adolescent girls.

    IPS UN Bureau


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  • 21 dividend stocks yielding 5% or more of companies that will produce plenty of cash in 2023

    21 dividend stocks yielding 5% or more of companies that will produce plenty of cash in 2023

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    When the stock market has jumped two days in a row, as it has now, it is easy to become complacent.

    But the Federal Reserve isn’t finished raising interest rates, and recession talk abounds. Stock investors aren’t out of the woods yet. That can make dividend stocks attractive if the yields are high and the companies produce more cash flow than they need to cover the payouts.

    Below is a list of 21 stocks drawn from the S&P Composite 1500 Index
    SP1500,
    +3.12%

    that appear to fit the bill. The S&P Composite 1500 is made up of the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +3.06%
    ,
    the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index
    MID,
    +3.18%

    and the S&P Small Cap 600 Index
    SML,
    +3.80%
    .

    The purpose of the list is to provide a starting point for further research. These stocks may be appropriate for you if you are looking for income, but you should do your own assessment to form your own opinion about a company’s ability to remain competitive over the next decade.

    Cash flow is key

    One way to measure a company’s ability to pay dividends is to look at its free cash flow yield. Free cash flow is remaining cash flow after planned capital expenditures. This money can be used to pay for dividends, buy back shares (which can raise earnings and cash flow per share), or fund acquisitions, organic expansion or for other corporate purposes.

    If we divide a company’s estimated annual free cash flow per share by its current share price, we have its estimated free cash flow yield. If we compare the free cash flow yield to the current dividend yield, we may see “headroom” for cash to be deployed in ways that can benefit shareholders.

    For this screen, we began with the S&P Composite 1500, then narrowed the list as follows:

    • Dividend yield of at least 5.00%.

    • Consensus free cash flow estimate available for calendar 2023, among at least five analysts polled by FactSet. We used calendar-year estimates, even though fiscal years for many companies don’t match the calendar.

    • Estimated 2023 free cash flow yield of at least double the current dividend yield.

    For real-estate investment trusts, dividend-paying ability is measured by funds from operations (FFO), a non-GAAP figure that adds depreciation and amortization back to earnings. Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) takes this a step further, subtracting cash expected to be used to maintain properties. So for the two REITs on the list, the FCF yield column makes use of AFFO.

    For many companies in the financial sector, especially banks and insurers, free cash flow figures aren’t available, so the screen made use of earnings-per-share estimates. These are generally considered to run close to actual cash flow for these heavily regulated industries.

    Here are the 21 companies that passed the screen, with dividend yields of at least 5% and estimated 2023 FCF yields at least twice the current payout. They are sorted by dividend yield:

    Company

    Ticker

    Type

    Dividend yield

    Estimated 2023 FCF yield

    Estimated “headroom”

    Uniti Group Inc.

    UNIT,
    +7.36%
    Real-Estate Investment Trusts

    8.33%

    25.25%

    16.92%

    Hanesbrands Inc.

    HBI,
    +5.56%
    Apparel/ Footwear

    8.33%

    17.29%

    8.96%

    Kohl’s Corp.

    KSS,
    +5.80%
    Department Stores

    7.68%

    16.72%

    9.04%

    Rent-A-Center Inc.

    RCII,
    +10.40%
    Finance/ Rental/ Leasing

    7.52%

    17.26%

    9.73%

    Macerich Co.

    MAC,
    +8.18%
    Real-Estate Investment Trusts

    7.43%

    18.04%

    10.60%

    Devon Energy Corp.

    DVN,
    +5.72%
    Oil & Gas Production

    7.13%

    14.47%

    7.33%

    AT&T Inc.

    T,
    +1.19%
    Major Telecommunications

    6.98%

    14.82%

    7.84%

    Newell Brands Inc.

    NWL,
    +5.16%
    Industrial Conglomerates

    6.59%

    17.42%

    10.82%

    Dow Inc.

    DOW,
    +2.96%
    Chemicals

    6.18%

    15.63%

    9.45%

    LyondellBasell Industries NV

    LYB,
    +3.64%
    Chemicals

    6.09%

    16.07%

    9.99%

    Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. Class A

    SMG,
    +5.01%
    Chemicals

    6.04%

    12.68%

    6.65%

    Diamondback Energy Inc.

    FANG,
    +5.23%
    Oil & Gas Production

    5.56%

    13.63%

    8.08%

    Best Buy Co. Inc.

    BBY,
    +5.86%
    Electronics/ Appliance Stores

    5.53%

    14.08%

    8.55%

    Viatris Inc.

    VTRS,
    +5.62%
    Pharmaceuticals

    5.50%

    28.95%

    23.45%

    Prudential Financial Inc.

    PRU,
    +5.66%
    Life/ Health Insurance

    5.38%

    13.30%

    7.91%

    Ford Motor Co.

    F,
    +7.76%
    Motor Vehicles

    5.23%

    15.95%

    10.72%

    Invesco Ltd.

    IVZ,
    +6.76%
    Investment Managers

    5.23%

    14.95%

    9.73%

    Franklin Resources Inc.

    BEN,
    +4.37%
    Investment Managers

    5.17%

    13.21%

    8.04%

    Kontoor Brands Inc.

    KTB,
    +0.73%
    Apparel/ Footwear

    5.17%

    14.15%

    8.98%

    Seagate Technology Holdings PLC

    STX,
    +4.09%
    Computer Peripherals

    5.11%

    13.19%

    8.07%

    Foot Locker Inc.

    FL,
    +1.35%
    Apparel/ Footwear Retail

    5.03%

    15.52%

    10.49%

    Source: FactSet

    Any stock screen has its limitations. If you are interested in stocks listed here, it is best to do your own research, and it is easy to get started by clicking the tickers in the table for more information about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    For the “estimated FCF yields,” consensus free cash flow estimates for calendar 2023 were used for all companies except the following:

    Don’t miss: Dividend yields on preferred stocks have soared. This is how to pick the best ones for your portfolio.

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