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House Dem Divisions Over DHS Funding Spill Out
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Andrew Solender, Axios
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WASHINGTON — Twelve House Democrats who last year sued the Trump administration over a policy limiting congressional oversight of immigrant detention facilities returned to federal court Monday to challenge a second, new policy imposing further limits on such unannounced visits.
In December, those members of Congress won their lawsuit challenging a Department of Homeland Security policy from June that required a week’s notice from lawmakers before an oversight visit. Now they’re accusing Homeland Security of having “secretly reimposed” the requirement last week.
In a Jan. 8 memorandum, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem wrote that “Facility visit requests must be made a minimum of seven (7) calendar days in advance. Any requests to shorten that time must be approved by me.”
The lawmakers who challenged the policies are led by Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) and include five members from California: Reps. Robert Garcia (D-Long Beach), Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles), Raul Ruiz (D-Indio) and Norma Torres (D-Pomona).
Last summer, as immigration raids spread through Los Angeles and other parts of Southern California, many Democrats including those named in the lawsuit were denied entry to local detention facilities. Before then, unannounced inspections had been a common, long-standing practice under congressional oversight powers.
“The duplicate notice policy is a transparent attempt by DHS to again subvert Congress’s will…and this Court’s stay of DHS’s oversight visit policy,” the plaintiffs wrote in a federal court motion Monday requesting an emergency hearing.
On Saturday, three days after Renee Nicole Good was shot and killed by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent, three members of Congress from Minnesota attempted to conduct an oversight visit of an ICE facility near Minneapolis. They were denied access.
Afterward, lawyers for Homeland Security notified the lawmakers and the court of the new policy, according to the court filing.
In a joint statement, the plaintiffs wrote that “rather than complying with the law, the Department of Homeland Security is attempting to get around this order by re-imposing the same unlawful policy.”
“This is unacceptable,” they said. “Oversight is a core responsibility of Members of Congress, and a constitutional duty we do not take lightly. It is not something the executive branch can turn on or off at will.”
Congress has stipulated in yearly appropriations packages since 2020 that funds may not be used to prevent a member of Congress “from entering, for the purpose of conducting oversight, any facility operated by or for the Department of Homeland Security used to detain or otherwise house aliens.”
That language formed the basis of the decision last month by U.S. District Court Judge Jia Cobb in Washington, who found that lawmakers cannot be denied entry for visits “unless and until” the government could show that no appropriations money was being used to operate detention facilities.
In her policy memorandum, Noem wrote that funds from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which supplied roughly $170 billion toward immigration and border enforcement, are not subject to the limitations of the yearly appropriations law.
“ICE must ensure that this policy is implemented and enforced exclusively with money appropriated by OBBBA,” Noem said.
Noem said the new policy is justified because unannounced visits pull ICE officers away from their normal duties. “Moreover, there is an increasing trend of replacing legitimate oversight activities with circus-like publicity stunts, all of which creates a chaotic environment with heightened emotions,” she wrote.
The lawmakers, in the court filing, argued it’s clear that the new policy violates the law.
“It is practically impossible that the development, promulgation, communication, and implementation of this policy has been, and will be, accomplished — as required — without using a single dollar of annually appropriated funds,” they wrote.
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Andrea Castillo
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(CNN) — President Donald Trump late Wednesday signed a funding package to reopen the federal government, officially bringing a close to the longest shutdown in history.
The final approval came hours after the House voted 222 to 209 to pass a deal struck between Republicans and centrist Senate Democrats that keeps the government running through January and ensures some key agencies will be funded for the remainder of fiscal year 2026.
The agreement, which ended a record 43-day stalemate in Congress, will also reverse the mass federal layoffs carried out by Trump during the shutdown. It paves the way for paychecks to flow to government employees, as well as the resumption of critical food and nutrition services relied on by tens of millions of Americans.
Trump on Wednesday night cast the legislation as a victory over Democrats, calling it “a clear message that we will never give in to extortion, because that’s what it was, they tried to extort.”
“They didn’t want to do it the easy way,” he said from the Oval Office, attacking what he called “the extremists” in the Democratic Party. “They had to do it the hard way, and they look very bad.”
The White House signing ceremony was attended by a range of Republican lawmakers and capped a four-day sprint to pass the funding bill, after eight Senate Democrats broke ranks to compromise with Republicans amid worries about the shutdown’s widening economic consequences.
The deal guarantees an early December vote in the Senate on the expiring Obamacare subsidies that Democrats made the focus of their demands during the shutdown fight. But a vote to extend the subsidies is unlikely to succeed, a likelihood that’s driven intense blowback across the Democratic Party.
Most congressional Democrats loudly protested the bill in the run-up to Wednesday’s vote over concerns Americans’ health care premiums will skyrocket without the subsidies, with only six House Democrats voting in favor of the package.
“This fight is not over. We’re just getting started,” top House Democrat Hakeem Jeffries said ahead of the vote. “Tens of millions of Americans are at risk of being unable to afford to go see a doctor when they need it.”
Back in Washington for the first time since mid-September, Speaker Mike Johnson corralled almost all Republicans behind the bill, despite sharp complaints from some of his members over a contentious provision added by Senate Republicans that allowed senators to retroactively sue the Department of Justice for obtaining phone records during a Biden-era probe – potentially amounting to a major financial windfall for those lawmakers.
Johnson himself said he was blindsided by the language, and he said he didn’t know about it until the Senate had already passed the package.
“I was shocked by it, I was angry about it,” the speaker said, though he added that he did not believe Senate Majority Leader John Thune added it in a nefarious manner. “I think it was a really bad look, and we’re going to fix it in the House.”
To win over conservative holdouts, Johnson vowed that the House would take a future vote to strip that language — though it’s unclear if the Senate would take it up. Republicans like Rep. Chip Roy of Texas ultimately agreed not to amend the language in the current stopgap bill, since it would require the Senate to return to Washington to vote again and delay the end of the shutdown.
Conservatives like Roy had blasted that provision as “self-dealing,” since it would award senators $500,000 or more in damages for each violation by the government if their lawsuit is successful. The amendment appeared to benefit eight senators in particular who had been subpoenaed by the previous administration into investigations into Trump’s first term.
Rep. Rosa DeLauro, the top Democrat on the House Appropriations panel, accused those eight senators of voting “to shove taxpayer dollars into their own pockets – $500,000 for each time their records were inspected.”
The House Democrats who voted in favor of the compromise bill to reopen the government were: Reps. Jared Golden, Adam Gray, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Henry Cuellar, Tom Suozzi and Don Davis. GOP Reps. Thomas Massie voted and Greg Steube against the bill.
The end of the government shutdown will usher in a frenetic few weeks of work for the House, which has been largely shuttered since late September. As part of the GOP’s pressure campaign on Democrats, Johnson had decided to keep all members out of Washington until Senate Democrats agreed to back the GOP’s existing funding plan.
Now, Republicans and Democrats have just four weeks in session before the end of the year — when those Obamacare tax credits expire. Trump has called for revamping the law rather than extending the existing subsidies, setting up a high-stakes showdown over health care that could carry political ramifications for next year’s midterm elections.
“Obamacare was a disaster,” Trump said Wednesday night. “We’ll work on something having to do with health care. We can do a lot better.”
But there are plenty of other deadlines, including Congress’ farm bill and a slew of expiring energy credits.
House Republicans are also eager to pass as many spending bills as possible to improve their negotiating stance with the Senate ahead of that next deadline on January 30.
Johnson also faces another hot-button issue: the question of how Congress should handle the Jeffrey Epstein files.
Not long before the votes to reopen the government got underway, a newly elected Democrat — Rep. Adelita Grijalva — became the critical 218th signature to force a vote to compel the Justice Department to release all of its case files related to Epstein.
Johnson announced to reporters soon after Grijalva signed the petition that he will put a bill compelling the Department of Justice to release all of its Epstein case files on the House floor next week – earlier than expected, and after an extraordinary White House pressure campaign earlier Wednesday failed to convince any Republicans to remove their name from the petition.
The effort coincided with intensifying scrutiny over the Epstein files in the House. Earlier Wednesday, House Democrats on the Oversight panel released new emails that showed Epstein had repeatedly mentioned Trump by name in private correspondence, and then the GOP-led committee released 200,000 pages of documents the panel received from Epstein’s estate.
This headline and story have been updated with additional details.
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Sarah Ferris and CNN
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The Jeffrey Epstein case took a new twist Wednesday when House Democrats released emails the disgraced financier wrote that mention President Trump. A few hours later, Republicans then released a trove of 20,000 pages of documents.
Epstein, who died in prison, was accused of orchestrating sex trafficking of young girls. President Trump, a longtime friend of Epstein’s, fell out with the convicted sex offender before he was elected to the nation’s highest office and has denied any involvement in wrongdoing.
Read the excerpts here:
Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said that Democrats had “selectively leaked emails to the liberal media to create a fake narrative to smear President Trump.”
“These stories are nothing more than bad-faith efforts to distract from President Trump’s historic accomplishments,” she said in a statement, “and any American with common sense sees right through this hoax and clear distraction from the government opening back up again.”
Democrats, however, say the emails break new ground.
“The more Donald Trump tries to cover up the Epstein files, the more we uncover,” Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Long Beach) said in a statement as he released the documents. “These latest emails and correspondence raise glaring questions about what else the White House is hiding and the nature of the relationship between Epstein and the President.”
Despite many investigations, there have been no official findings linking Trump to Epstein’s crimes.
Epstein, a wealthy financier with a deep bench of powerful friends, died in a New York City prison in August 2019 as he faced federal charges in a sprawling child sex-trafficking conspiracy.
The charges followed reporting by the Miami Herald of a scandalous sweetheart deal brokered by federal prosecutors in Florida that had allowed Epstein to serve a months-long sentence, avoiding federal charges that could have resulted in life imprisonment.
In July, the Wall Street Journal reported President Trump sent a raunchy 50th birthday letter to Epstein that included a sketch of a naked woman, her breasts and a squiggly “Donald” signature mimicking pubic hair. The president denied writing the letter.
“These are not my words, not the way I talk,” Trump wrote on his social media platform. “Also, I don’t draw pictures.”
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Jenny Jarvie, Michael Wilner
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Democrat Xp Lee won a special election Tuesday to fill the Minnesota House seat of a top Democratic leader who was assassinated.
Rep. Melissa Hortman, of Brooklyn Park, held the seat until her death in June.
Lee is a former Brooklyn Park City Council member. He defeated Republican real estate agent Ruth Bittner in the heavily Democratic district.
Lee’s win restores a 67-67 tie in the House, and it preserves a power-sharing deal that existed for most of the 2025 legislative session, after the 2024 elections cost House Democrats their majority.
Former House Speaker Hortman brokered that agreement, which ended Democrats’ three-week boycott. Under the deal, she agreed to end her six-year tenure as speaker and let Republican Lisa Demuth take the position. Hortman then took the title speaker emerita. Most legislative committees became evenly split between Republican and Democratic members, with co-chairs from each party.
The tie in the House meant some level of bipartisan agreement was required to pass anything in this year’s session.
In an indication of the national interest in the race, Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said Lee’s “commitment to expanding access to education, affordable health care, and good-paying jobs honors the legacy” of Hortman.
“Across Minnesota, our hearts are still broken by the horrific assassination that stole Melissa and her husband Mark,” Martin, who formerly chaired the state Democratic Party, said in a statement. “Political violence is a scourge that has taken far too many lives. Enough is enough. It must end now. And in every case, each of us has a responsibility to condemn and reject political violence wherever it rears its head.”
The election to replace Hortman takes place about three months after she and her husband were gunned down in their home by a man impersonating a police officer in Brooklyn Park, a suburb northwest of Minneapolis. Another legislator and his wife also were shot but survived.
Vance Boelter, 57, faces federal and state murder, attempted murder and other charges in the June 14 attacks.
Tuesday’s special election also follows another act of political violence, the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk in Utah last Wednesday. The shootings have been a concern among voters in the district — and for both candidates.
Lee said he wants to calm the “charged atmosphere” in the wake of Kirk’s death.
Bittner said the violence briefly gave her pause about running for office, but she concluded that “there’s no way to solve this problem if we shrink back in fear.”
Lee, a former Brooklyn Park City Council member, easily won a three-way Democratic primary in August. Bittner, a real estate agent, was the sole Republican on the primary ballot for the seat in the heavily Democratic district.
Two more special elections will be held Nov. 4 in a pair of Minnesota Senate districts.
One is to fill the seat vacated by Democratic Sen. Nicole Mitchell, of the St. Paul suburb of Woodbury. She resigned in July after she was convicted of burglarizing her estranged stepmother’s home. The other is for the seat of Republican Sen. Bruce Anderson, of the Minneapolis exurb of Buffalo, who died in July.
Given that the districts are heavily Democratic and heavily Republican, respectively, control of the Senate isn’t expected to change. But the Democratic candidate for Mitchell’s seat is state Rep. Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger, of Woodbury. If she wins, the governor will have to call another special election to fill her House seat.
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Texas Republican lawmakers on Wednesday evening adopted a package of sharper penalties and new fundraising restrictions for members who leave the state to freeze legislative action, in a bid to deter future standoffs like what ensued when House Democrats absconded last month to delay passage of a new congressional map.
The array of new punishments includes a proposal to severely curtail how much lawmakers can fundraise should they leave Texas to deny their chamber the headcount required to conduct business. Under House Bill 18, absent members and their legislative caucuses will be prohibited from accepting daily political contributions beyond their per diem allocation — currently $221 a day, as set by the Texas Ethics Commission — and barred from spending any campaign cash on travel, food or lodging related to their out-of-state trip.
The measure passed the lower chamber Tuesday and was whisked through the Senate and on to Gov. Greg Abbott’s desk late just after midnight Thursday.
Meanwhile, the Texas House also adopted new rules Wednesday that impose a handful of harsher punishments for lawmakers who break quorum, including erasing two years of legislative seniority for each day lawmakers are absent, starting after they miss three consecutive days of legislative business. The changes also include higher daily fines for lawmakers who flee the state and a new provision stripping them of committee leadership appointments.
The new rules are largely symbolic and aimed squarely at future quorum breaks, as Democrats have returned from their August protest against congressional redistricting. And the Legislature already passed the reconfigured map — ordered by President Donald Trump to secure the GOP more seats in the U.S. House — which was recently signed into law by Abbott and now faces legal challenges.
House members adopt rules anew at the beginning of each regular session on odd-numbered years. After Democrats left the state to delay a package of GOP voting restrictions in 2021, the House held off on updating the rules until 2023, by which time tensions had mellowed out.
House GOP hardliners for weeks urged state leaders to castigate Democrats for what they characterize as an abandonment of their duties, though the state Constitution permits quorum breaks.
“I think these penalties are reasonable,” Rep. Cody Vasut of Angleton, the rules package author, said Wednesday night. “I think they are strong to help deter a future quorum break.”
The calls for retribution were answered in short order. After Democrats returned and the House approved the new district lines, Abbott — who decides which topics can be considered during special sessions — expanded his agenda, giving lawmakers permission to enact the stiffer penalties.
Such legislation was needed, Abbott said at the time, “to ensure that rogue lawmakers cannot hijack the important business of Texans.”
On the House floor this week, Republican Rep. Matt Shaheen of Plano, the author of the fundraising restriction bill, argued that current law creates a financial incentive for members to protest with their absence, pointing to fundraising efforts touting the Democrats’ departure.
Democrats cast the penalties — particularly the new House rules — as vindictive and unnecessarily punitive.
In opposition speeches, they noted the “outside influences” — nodding to Vasut’s wording — that nudged the GOP into mid-decade redistricting. Some struck a defiant tone, arguing that voters could kick them out of office at the polls if they disapproved of their quorum breaking.
“When politicians change the rules of the game, it’s because they know they’re losing,” Houston Rep. Gene Wu, the House Democratic Caucus leader, said in a statement. “By breaking quorum, we exposed the corrupt deal between Trump and Abbott to rig Texas’ congressional maps, and turned it into a national movement.”
The fundraising clampdown sailed through the GOP-dominated Senate, though some Republicans who supported the measure said it would not solve the issue at hand, bemoaning that it stopped short of the upper chamber’s more aggressive approach of barring lawmakers from fundraising altogether during special sessions. That moratorium is already in place for the Legislature’s 140-day regular sessions that take place every other year.
During a Senate committee hearing Wednesday, Sen. Bob Hall, R-Edgewood, noted that quorum breaks generally do not happen on the spur of the moment and instead are preceded by weeks of chatter and planning, during which it will still be legal for lawmakers to raise money. Hall ultimately voted to advance the measure as part of a 9-1 committee vote.
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When Jerry Nadler announced his retirement this week, he opted to directly address a question that’s been roiling the Democratic Party since Joe Biden’s withering debate performance last year: How old is too old to run for office?
The 78-year-old congressmember cited his age as a factor in his departure plans from a safe seat in New York City. And in doing so, he earned praise from some of the party’s younger agitators — though based on interviews, it’ll take more than a handful of elderly lawmakers like Nadler heeding their calls to step aside to repair the intra-party rift.
As it is, the vast majority of Democrats who are 70 or older are publicly running for another House term.
Against that backdrop, a trend of acknowledging the party’s age problem — often tacitly — is beginning to emerge, even as other senior members of the party are likely to stay put.
Four House Democrats, including Nadler, and four Senate Democrats over the age of 65 have said this year that they are stepping down from Congress. A fifth House Democrat said he would retire from his home district if Texas’ proposed redistricting maps survive legal challenges. Democrats believe even more departures could be coming with a government shutdown deadline looming and lawmakers evaluating their futures after returning from their August recess.
“These retirements are a great example of maturity from these leaders to make the difficult decision for them of knowing even after you’ve served somewhere for decades that it’s time for somebody else to lead,” Leaders We Deserve co-founder David Hogg said in an interview, specifically responding to Nadler’s news.
But 25-year-old Hogg, who has become a leading voice for generational change within his party, also pledged to continue his plan to financially support some candidates who challenge older incumbent Democrats.
“There is still more of a need for us to bring in some fresh blood into this party and help rejuvenate it,” he said, “and show people how the party is changing in the wake of a pretty major loss last election cycle.”
More than 80 House members are 70 or older, a statistic younger Democrats like Hogg cite to underscore their argument that a party in turmoil needs generational change. Only one House member is in his 20s, and the vast majority of older congressional members are expected to run for reelection.
Still, some Democrats who have announced their retirement have explicitly cited age as a factor.
Nadler told the New York Times that “watching the Biden thing really said something about the necessity for generational change in the party, and I think I want to respect that.” Illinois Rep. Jan Schakowsky, 81, announced in the spring she wouldn’t seek reelection, saying, “It is now time for me to pass the baton” and this week praising the “new voices” as “so sharp, so articulate, so self-assured. It’s wonderful.”
Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith, 67, likewise said earlier this year that “it’s important that people in my position do what they can to lift up the next generation of leaders” when unveiling her retirement. And 83-year-old Illinois Rep. Danny Davis told supporters in July when he decided to retire that “this would be a great time to try and usher in new leadership.”
As Democrats search for a path out of the political wilderness, they have faced a push for fresh faces from voters and activists who have urged their leaders to mount a more visible resistance to President Donald Trump. The impatience from younger Democrats has led several primary challengers to attempt to turn incumbents’ age into a liability. Three House Democrats have died in office this year, further fueling the contentious debate on the left.
“The boomer generation has held on to some of these seats for a long time,” said New York City-based Democratic strategist Evan Thies. “And we saw in the last election that even very accomplished, highly competent and productive elder electeds are now at risk of not winning their elections simply because they’re older.”
Even agitators like Hogg have carved out exceptions to their push to oust senior Democrats, which he insists is motivated by effectiveness and not solely age. Hogg, whose primary plans caused an uproar within the Democratic National Committee that culminated in his ouster as a party vice chair, has exempted Democratic luminaries like Nancy Pelosi, 85, from his anti-incumbent movement. And he has said the same of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), 83, who still draws huge crowds even as he signals this term could be his last in the Senate.
“Generational change has been underway in the House Democratic caucus for the last several years, and it’s something that every caucus member, regardless of which generation they find themselves in, has embraced,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, 55, told reporters Tuesday when asked about generational change and Nadler’s decision. “What the record shows is leadership to rank-and-file-members to committee positions, and at all points in between.”
This year, House Democrats elevated a younger, rising star in the party, Rep. Robert Garcia, as their top member of the Oversight Committee, and Jeffries himself had participated in a changing of the guard when Pelosi stepped aside as speaker, along with her top lieutenants, Reps. Steny Hoyer and Jim Clyburn, to make way for a younger trio.
Rep. Jared Huffman took over as the top Democrat on the Natural Resources Committee from Rep. Raúl Grijalva, who stepped aside amid a cancer battle and later died. And Rep. Angie Craig won a caucus-wide election to be the top Agriculture Committee Democrat after Rep. David Scott also dropped his bid amid health questions.
In a move that some younger Democrats have criticized, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has actively recruited older, well-known Democrats like former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown and former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper in his long-shot bid to flip the upper chamber. Other Senate Democratic candidates are younger, including Rep. Chris Pappas, 45, in New Hampshire and the trio of Democrats running in Michigan.
Some senior House Democrats are keeping others in the party guessing about their future plans. Two top members of the previous generation of House Democratic leadership — Pelosi and Hoyer — have been publicly noncommittal on their re-election plans, though Pelosi has filed for re-election. And others who have faced competitive primary challenges amid broader health questions, like Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.), have said they’re still running for re-election.
Hoyer spokesperson Margaret Mullkerrin said in a statement he was “focused on holding the Trump Administration accountable, protecting democracy at home and abroad, supporting federal employees and civil servants, and delivering for Maryland’s 5th District.”
Jumaane Williams, the 49-year-old New York City Public Advocate, applauded Nadler for stepping down after “watching what happened to the country, particularly around President Biden.”
“I think the party in general should be learning this lesson,” he said. “Hopefully, when it’s my turn, I have that lesson, too.”
With additional reporting by Jeff Coltin and Shia Kapos.
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Democrats are scrambling to keep their nascent crusade against President Donald Trump’s national redistricting push from fizzling out.
House Democrats are considering establishing an organization to raise and spend for their remapping efforts as they look to counter an aggressive Republican move that could determine control of the chamber next year, according to three people granted anonymity to describe private conversations. And House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has privately discussed redistricting with blue-state governors, according to another person.
The Center for American Progress is urging blue states to abandon their independent redistricting commissions. And, through private strategy sessions and public appeals, Texas House Democratic Caucus Chair Gene Wu is asking Democrats across red and blue states to take a no-holds-barred approach to resisting GOP redistricting. Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin praised Wu during a meeting in Minneapolis last week for “igniting a national movement within this party.”
“This is an all-out call to arms,” Wu, who helped lead Texas Democrats’ quorum break, said in an interview. “That chorus of ‘everyone needs to get off their ass and do something’ is growing louder and louder. And more and more elected Democrats who are seen as doing nothing — their commitment to our country is going to be questioned.”
But Democrats face a lopsided fight.
They’re hamstrung by constitutional restrictions or independent commissions in some states, while Republicans are generally free of those legal barriers and have leadership trifectas in Indiana, Florida, Missouri and Ohio, promising state lawmakers fewer restrictions to draw Democratic rivals out of their seats.
Against this backdrop, Democrats are grasping for ways to counter Trump’s maximalist campaign to redraw congressional maps to protect Republicans’ three-seat House majority in the midterms. With a counteroffensive already underway in California, Democrats are turning to other blue states to take up the charge — and finding some open-minded participants in governors with 2028 ambitions.
Democrats see the promise of netting three seats in Maryland and Illinois, whose governors — Wes Moore and JB Pritzker, respectively — have spoken with Jeffries about redistricting, according to one person granted anonymity to describe those private conversations. The minority party is also eyeing a pickup opportunity in Utah, after a judge ruled the state must redraw its map. Jeffries has also spoken with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, though any changes in the Empire State are unlikely before 2028 and thus wouldn’t impact the upcoming midterms.
The blowback started as a tit-for-tat response to Trump’s efforts to grow the GOP’s majority next year, kicking off with a push for five more red House seats in Texas. Now Missouri is moving ahead with a new map as the White House bears down on Indiana.
One national Democratic operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the tumultuous situation, described jumping into the redistricting arms race as “the price for entry to the 2028 presidential primary.”
Caifornia Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose popularity is soaring as he emerges as Democrats’ remapping champion, has been encouraging his counterparts to follow his lead, saying at POLITICO’s California Summit Wednesday, “We’re going to have to see other governors move in a similar direction.”
An array of party officials and organizations are lining up.
The National Democratic Redistricting Committee is fielding calls, providing technical support and legal expertise to state leaders looking at their own congressional maps, according to a person directly familiar with their efforts.
Wu, the Texas House Democrats leader, discussed messaging and other tactics with legislators from seven states where Republicans are eyeing redistricting during a Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee strategy session last week, per a summary of the call provided to POLITICO. And former President Barack Obama called Texas state Rep. James Talarico — a potential U.S. Senate candidate — to voice support for his role in his state’s redistricting battle.
But in some states, messaging is all Democrats can do. Republicans in Indiana, for example, hold a supermajority and can pass any map without a single Democrat in the chamber.
It’s not just Democratic officials who are getting involved. Unions that banded together to condemn Republicans’ gerrymandering in Texas are now pledging to put manpower behind Newsom’s ballot campaign in California and holding strategy discussions about combating Trump’s next moves in other states. And activists affiliated with the progressive group Indivisible have made roughly 5,000 calls to governors and lawmakers across 15 states with Democratic trifectas urging them to responsively redistrict.
“This isn’t something we had to go pitch people on the importance of. This is something people were banging down our doors about,” said Andrew O’Neill, Indivisible’s national advocacy director.
And it “does seem that this is something that has broken through with these governors and has the potential to create what I’ve been calling a productive ambition,” O’Neill said. “These people might be thinking about future job prospects for themselves and they view being a leader in this fight as a route to do that.”
Democrats’ pressure campaign is struggling in Colorado, Washington and Oregon, whose governors have all but closed the door to redistricting, and the party lacks the legislative means or the interest to change their maps.
Colorado Democratic Party Chair Shad Murib sent a recent memo to county officers outlining the near-insurmountable challenges in mimicking California’s ballot campaign, according to a copy obtained by POLITICO. Petitions attempting to circumvent the state’s independent redistricting commission are being filed without the state party’s backing.
Washington Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen shut down the possibility in a letter to a concerned constituent shared with POLITICO, noting Washington’s Democratic-heavy congressional delegation already does not reflect the political makeup of the state. And state Democratic Party Chair Shasti Conrad acknowledged “lots of pressure and desire” to take up redistricting, but pointed to a broad recognition that it’s “practicably impossible.”
On the East Coast, New Jersey Democrats are similarly hamstrung by state constitutional issues and though Moore told POLITICO “everything’s on the table” when it comes to redistricting, a state court tossed Maryland Democrats’ previous attempt to gerrymander.
But Democratic activists are increasingly discontent to let anyone in their party sit on the sidelines as they fight what they view as Trump’s latest power grab.
“These are serious times, and I’m not sure how much more serious things have to be for [Democratic governors] to get off their ass and get in the batters box and swing for the fences,” said California-based Democratic strategist Michael Trujillo. “This is infuriating.”
Natalie Fertig and Brakkton Booker contributed to this report.
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Democrats may not believe Joe Biden is the strongest candidate to defeat Donald Trump in November, but there seemed to be a grim resignation on Capitol Hill on Monday night that none were willing to take the steps that might actually push Biden to drop out. If Democrats could simply wave a magic wand to remove the president from the ticket, they would. But all they have are knives, and few are inclined to use them.
The fretting was based on the calculus that while Biden was likely to lose if he remained on the ticket, an unsuccessful effort to oust him would just widen the margin of defeat (and the resulting down-ballot casualties). Many took an abstract view of the process as if it was some intellectual question that needed to be worked out on a blackboard. Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland told reporters “I think we are having an important national conversation and I am confident that the president will make a decision in the best interest of the country.” There was no sense that Biden has already announced that decision a number of times, including hours before in a letter to Congressional Democrats and again during a phone interview with Morning Joe.
Fatalism gripped the Democratic Party on Monday, fueling a desire among many just to resolve all of this quickly. As one donor said “the longer it lingers, the worse it is going to be in November.” Only Joe Biden could really decide to remove himself from the ticket, and barring a shocking turn of events, he wasn’t going to relinquish that grip. In the meantime, the more the media feeding frenzy continued, the tougher it would be for Democrats in competitive races. After all, the last thing Democrats want to do is spend day after day answering questions about Joe Biden’s cognitive abilities, and until there was a definitive resolution, they wouldn’t have a choice. There would be no open convention, no Sorkinesque sacrifice — just another grim four months of plodding along with a flawed nominee.
One senior Democratic aide invoked the T.S. Eliot line that became a cliche long before even Biden was born: “This won’t end with a bang but a whimper.”
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Intelligencer Staff
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MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar got a prominent Democratic primary challenger Sunday when former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels announced he’ll try once again to unseat her after coming close in 2022.
Omar, a charter member of “the squad” of progressive House Democrats, won reelection twice despite making comments in her first term that were widely criticized for invoking antisemitic tropes and suggesting Jewish Americans have divided loyalties. But Omar — a Somali American and Muslim — has come under renewed fire for condemning the Israeli government’s handling of its war against Hamas.
“Our congresswoman has a predilection to divisiveness and conflict,” Samuels said in an interview with The Associated Press ahead of his official announcement Sunday morning on WCCO Radio.
The Jamaican-born Samuels still maintains that his narrow primary loss in 2022 showed Omar was beatable, and that he could have won if they had competed later in the general election, where Omar won 74% of the vote over a little-known Republican.
The big issue in 2022 was the future of policing in the city where George Floyd was murdered in 2020 by a former Minneapolis police officer, which touched off protests around the world and riots in Minnesota. Omar was among the progressives who slammed former President Barack Obama for criticizing the “defund the police” movement as just a “snappy slogan.”
“It’s not a slogan but a policy demand,” she posted on Twitter, now known as X.
In contrast, the centrist Samuels helped lead the opposition that defeated a proposal on the city ballot in 2021 that arose from the “defund” movement and would have replaced the police force with a revamped public safety agency. Samuels thinks safety will be a top issue again.
“The long tails of the George Floyd and COVID issues continue, with empty storefronts and empty strip malls because people don’t want to invest anymore. They don’t think it’s safe,” Samuels said.
Jeremy Slevin, a spokesman for Omar, did not immediately return a phone message left Sunday seeking comment on Samuels’ announcement.
The war in the Middle East has already divided Democrats and upended the dynamics of some House primaries. Omar has been critical of Hamas for attacking Israel and taking hostages — but even more so of Israel’s military response. Her focus has been the plight of civilians in the Gaza Strip. She has also condemned the surge of intimidation and violence against both Muslim and Jewish targets in the U.S.
It remains to be seen how potent an issue the war will be in an overwhelmingly Democratic district that includes Minneapolis and some suburbs. The district also has a large Somali Muslim population. And it includes St. Louis Park, which historically has been a center of Jewish life in Minnesota.
Samuels said he believes the war will be a big concern. He criticized Omar for voting against placing sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine but supporting sanctions against Israel, and for boycotting Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s speech to Congress in July.
“She has frightened the Jewish community,” Samuels said, adding that the community “understands that there is a latent and lurking antisemitic sentiment that always needs discouragement, and always in times of national crisis raises its ugly head.”
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee has been actively trying to recruit a credible challenger to Omar. That drew pushback from a strong supporter of Israel, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who issued a public show of support for Omar this summer. A super PAC affiliated with AIPAC spent about $350,000 against Omar in 2022. But Samuels said AIPAC didn’t try to recruit him.
Omar’s fellow House Democrats have portrayed her as a serious legislator who in the past four years has earned admiration for giving voice to marginalized groups often forgotten on Capitol Hill.
But Samuels said people sometimes “mistake her oppositional nature and divisive nature for someone who’s speaking truth to power when in fact she is misusing her power, or not using her power, to make change.”
The other declared candidates are relatively unknown. One Democrat is Sarah Gad, a Minneapolis attorney and daughter of Egyptian immigrants who is Muslim. The other is military veteran Tim Peterson. The only Republican currently running is Dalia Al-Aqidi, an Iraqi American journalist and self-described secular Muslim who calls Omar pro-Hamas and a terrorist sympathizer.
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Just a few days after terrorists attacked America on Sept. 11, 2001, as Congress rushed to give President George W. Bush wide-ranging power to invade Afghanistan, Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) faced a decision that would come to define her career.
As she weighed her vote, Lee thought of a lesson she’d learned in an earlier job running a community mental health center: “Don’t make critical decisions when you’re grieving and mourning, angry, confused.”
Lee decided that the authorization as written “could set the stage for forever wars,” she told The Times in a recent interview. After intense deliberation, she decided to vote no — the only member of Congress to oppose the bill.
Twenty-two years later, Lee, Burbank Rep. Adam B. Schiff, and Irvine Rep. Katie Porter are the top Democrats in the race for the U.S. Senate seat once held by Dianne Feinstein, for decades a key player on foreign and national security policy.
California voters now face a choice among candidates with vastly divergent approaches to — and experience with — foreign policy.
Lee’s immediate reaction to the attack on Israel by Hamas militants this month sounded much like her response to 9/11.
“Our country has a responsibility, I believe, to call for a cease-fire and to call for the whole world to come together to try to stop the escalation of what is taking place in the Middle East. And peace is possible if we can bring all parties together to talk,” she said at a candidate forum the weekend of the attack.
Schiff sounded a different note:
“The only sentiment I want to express right now when Israel is going through its own 9/11 is unequivocal support for the security and the right of Israel to defend itself,” he said.
Lee and Schiff’s decades of work on foreign policy issues contrast with the relative inexperience of Porter, a third-term lawmaker whose House career has focused more on domestic issues.
In her answer at the forum, Porter pivoted to a hawkish line about Iran that sounded a lot like what some leading Republicans said in the immediate aftermath of the attack.
“I stand with Israel in this time and I condemn the loss of lives — both of Palestinians and Israelis who are being victims of this terror,” she said, asserting that “the United States has allowed terrorism to flourish and has refused to take a strong enough stance against Iran” — which backs the militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah.
When asked what specific Iran policy Porter was referring to, a spokesperson pointed to President Trump’s withdrawal from the treaty aimed at curtailing Iran’s nuclear program.
Lee and Schiff have long differed on foreign policy.
Besides voting against the war in Afghanistan, Lee voted against authorizing the Iraq war and the Patriot Act, which expanded government surveillance powers. Schiff voted for all three. (He has since said he regretted his Iraq vote.) Lee opposed the Obama administration’s 2011 missile strikes in Libya, while Schiff conditionally supported them.
Schiff voted to approve final passage of the last seven annual defense funding bills; Lee, who has long pushed to slash Pentagon spending, voted against every one. (Porter voted against the most recent two spending bills but voted for them the first two years she was in Congress.)
Lee told The Times before the Hamas attack that Schiff was “part of the status quo thinking” in Washington on foreign policy, and argued that Porter “doesn’t have a foreign policy record to stand on because she just hasn’t been in Congress long enough.”
Schiff declined to directly contrast his record with his opponents’ in an interview shortly before the Hamas attack. But he emphasized his years as the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee and the opportunity that’s given him to get to know world leaders.
“I’ve been deeply engaged in both foreign policy issues, national security issues and intelligence issues,” Schiff said. “It’s given me, I think, a wealth of experience to deal with and address some of the paramount national security challenges facing the country.”
Schiff’s years leading the House Intelligence Committee helped prepare him to prosecute Trump at his first impeachment trial — where diplomats and military officials testified that the then-president had tried to pressure Ukraine into launching an investigation into Joe Biden and his son Hunter in exchange for U.S. weapons the country wanted to defend itself against Russian aggression.
“In terms of his impeachment efforts, he did a very good job,” Lee said of Schiff.
Lee got her introduction to Capitol Hill foreign policy debates in the 1980s as a senior staffer for longtime Oakland Rep. Ron Dellums, then chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. During that time, Dellums led the bipartisan charge to sanction apartheid-era South Africa.
In recent years, she’s been able to gain allies in her quest to rein in presidents’ expansive war powers — partly because elements of both parties had moved her way. Lee helped draft the Democratic National Committee’s national platform in 2016 and pushed the party’s official foreign policy stance in a much more dovish direction. Her once-lonely crusade to repeal the 2001 and 2002 authorizations of military force has gained strong bipartisan support.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) said Lee’s views on war and peace were a key reason for his decision to endorse her.
“I view Barbara Lee as the strongest voice against endless war, not just in the race, but in the entire Congress,” he told The Times
Schiff leads the Senate race in delegation endorsements — 22 of California’s 40 House Democrats have backed him, compared with three for Lee and none for Porter.
A number of his colleagues cited his foreign policy experience and work leading the Intelligence Committee as a major reason they’re backing him.
“That was a big part of why I chose to endorse Adam,” Rep. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove) said. “There’s only 100 senators. So foreign policy experience is incredibly important.”
Whoever wins the seat will be replacing a senator who played a crucial role on foreign policy, privacy and civil liberties issues for decades — at times to her fellow Democrats’ consternation.
Feinstein was the top Democrat on the powerful Senate Intelligence Committee from 2009 through 2016, and often hewed in a more interventionist direction than many in her party.
She voted to authorize the war in Iraq and was a major supporter of the Patriot Act. One of U.S. intelligence agencies’ staunchest Democratic allies for much of her career, Feinstein sided with Republicans to expand the government’s ability to covertly monitor Americans’ calls and emails without a warrant and supported giving immunity to telephone companies that had allowed the U.S. government to listen in on calls between suspected terrorists and people on American soil. When former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden leaked details of the government’s vast data-gathering operation, Feinstein accused him of treason. She also was a fierce defender of drone strikes and blocked President Obama from moving control of the drone strike program from the CIA to the Defense Department.
But she also was key in defending Obama’s deal to prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons and led the charge to investigate and declassify a report on the CIA’s secret torture program. The document would never have seen daylight if not for her work.
Schiff is probably the closest of the three candidates to Feinstein in terms of worldview and experience.
The two worked closely together as the top Democrats on the House and Senate intelligence committees. In the lead-up to the 2016 election, they pushed hard for the Obama administration to publicly call out Russia for meddling in the election. After being rebuffed, they put out a joint statement in late September 2016 declaring they’d seen evidence Russia was trying to influence the U.S. election — weeks before Obama officials finally said the same.
“Far too late,” Schiff lamented.
In recent years, the foreign policy differences between Schiff and Lee have not been as far apart as earlier in their political careers.
While Lee has fought to severely limit the CIA’s long-running drone strike program, Schiff hasn’t gone as that far — but in 2015 introduced legislation to put the program under Defense Department control. Schiff has also backed Lee’s work to repeal the 2002 law authorizing military force in Iraq. That effort has strong bipartisan support, including from Biden, and passed the House back when it was in Democratic hands in 2021 but has yet to become law.
Schiff worked across the aisle to reform the Patriot Act and end its warrantless wiretapping program. He also said the lesson he drew from his vote to back the Iraq invasion based on incorrect intelligence provided by the Bush administration led him to push to reform American intelligence-gathering services’ reports so that dissenting views are aired and “group think” is avoided.
“Seeing how an administration could mislead the country and use intelligence to do it was a very powerful motivator for me to work on reforms of the intelligence community,” he told The Times.
Both Schiff and Lee criticized the Biden administration’s handling of the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, but praised him for deciding to do so.
All three leading Democratic Senate candidates generally have strongly backed U.S. military aid for Ukraine, but voted against supplying that nation with cluster munitions.
The candidates overlap on some issues regarding Israel as well.
Schiff pointed out at the forum that he has criticized Israeli settlers’ expansion into the West Bank as well as Israel’s recent “move away from democracy” — alluding to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attempts to undermine the independence of the judiciary.
Lee has consistently voted to provide funding for Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system. But she was also one of 16 House Democrats to vote against a nonbinding resolution that condemned the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement, which looks to block investments in Israel, and co-sponsored legislation to bar U.S. aid from going toward Israel’s annexation of West Bank land or detention of Palestinian children.
The reemergence of Israel as a global flashpoint puts their differences back on display.
Schiff continues to offer a full-throated defense of Israel.
“It is crucial that Congress works quickly to provide Israel with the security assistance, humanitarian aid and intelligence support it needs to defend itself and to safely recover the hostages taken,” he said in a statement. “Words matter and our allies around the world — as well as our adversaries — are watching us closely. It’s important, now more than ever, for the U.S. to stand united with Israel.”
Lee recently joined a letter from the Congressional Progressive Caucus to President Biden expressing deep concern about Israel’s actions in Gaza and calling for an end to the siege and a humanitarian corridor to deliver lifesaving supplies.
“Israel has the right to defend itself from Hamas, but must do so within the framework of international law,” she wrote in a statement, calling on the U.S. to “protect innocent civilians & ensure delivery of humanitarian assistance.”
Porter released a five-minute video a few days later touting her support for Israel, strongly criticizing Iran and making only brief mention of Palestinian civilians’ suffering.
“We cannot give in to Iran’s efforts to weaken our long-standing special relationship with Israel,” she said.
Porter, whose district includes a large Iranian American community, has long spoken out against the Iranian government’s brutal oppression of women and other protesters.
Porter’s campaign declined to make her available for an interview, but pointed to her work to trim defense spending and her successful push for an amendment banning senior Pentagon officials from owning stock in defense contractors as examples of her foreign policy work.
At the forum, Porter was asked a question about her lack of foreign policy experience and responded that she was a quick study.
“I have done the work and always do the work. I was a professor, so I take doing your homework pretty seriously,” she said. “I’m committed to continuing to learn.”
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Cameron Joseph
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Riding a wave of momentum in the final weeks of the campaign, Gabe Amo, a former White House official, won the special Democratic primary election for an open U.S. House seat in Rhode Island on Tuesday.
His victory makes history, putting him on track to become the first Black person ever to represent Rhode Island in Congress. The outcome is nonetheless a disappointment for the activist left, which had hoped that one of their longtime allies, former state Rep. Aaron Regunberg, would prevail.
Amo, who defeated 10 Democratic rivals, will face Republican nominee Gerry Leonard in a special general election in November.
But since Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District, which encompasses the eastern half of the state, is solidly Democratic, Amo is widely expected to represent the district in Congress.
Amo, born to Ghanaian and Liberian immigrants who raised him in Pawtucket, touted his experience handling intergovernmental coordination for both President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama.
“You’ve got to be adaptable. The skill set needs to meet the moment,” Amo told HuffPost in August, speaking about his White House experience. “That sort of versatility is something that we should have from a member of Congress.”
The off-cycle election was prompted by former Rep. David Cicilline’s resignation in June to run a statewide nonprofit. Cicilline, who had held the seat since 2011, was a leading proponent of antitrust reform on Capitol Hill.
Given the relative rarity of an open congressional post in Rhode Island, where Democratic elected officials abound, Cicilline’s departure sparked a flood of interest from Ocean State politicians hoping to succeed him.
Amo’s most significant competition came from three top contenders: Regunberg, Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos, and state Sen. Sandra Cano.
Amo would almost certainly be a mainstream Democrat in line with party leadership. He ran on protecting Social Security and Medicare, fighting for abortion rights and trying to pass stricter gun control.
Most of all, though, he ran on his personal attributes and his experience. And his victory speaks to the enduring power of Obama and Biden, neither of whom endorsed in the race, to shape Democratic primaries.
An Amo TV spot begins with footage of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and former President Donald Trump to establish that “the stakes have never been higher.” It concludes with photos of Amo with Biden and Obama. “Gabe Amo, trusted by President Obama and President Biden ― the one with the experience we need now,” the narrator says.
Amo’s win is something of an upset, as Regunberg led the field in internal polls in recent weeks. Regunberg benefited from the approval of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), whose presidential bids Regunberg had supported. He also had the support of the Congressional Progressive Caucus; the Working Families Party, which spent $250,000 in advertising on Regunberg’s behalf; and his own father-in-law, a financial executive who funded an independent direct-mail campaign that elicited criticism from other candidates.
“They won’t go wrong with Gabe.”
– Former U.S. Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-R.I.)
Sanders’ blessing was perhaps the most important, as he won the Democratic presidential primary in Rhode Island in 2016. He held a rally for Regunberg on Aug. 27.
Regunberg would not have been a member of the left-wing “Squad.” He cited Cicilline as a model of effective progressive governance, and touted his own work on the passage of state laws ensuring workers paid sick leave, raising the state’s tipped minimum wage, creating a commission to study the use of solitary confinement, enacting online voter registration and encouraging homeowners’ adoption of solar panels.
“It’s really important that our next rep continues to push for those same issues and continues the kind of effective advocacy that I think we’ve all really appreciated from David,” Regunberg told HuffPost in August.
But Amo, riding a surge in fundraising that helped him reach voters on television, insisted that Regunberg was an impractical ideologue. He cited Regunberg’s comments in May that he would have voted against the bill raising the debt ceiling on the grounds that it rewarded Republican “hostage taking.” (In the final debate, Regunberg said he would have voted for the bill if his vote had been needed for its passage.)
And Amo got a last-minute assist from former U.S. Rep. Patrick Kennedy, who represented the House seat for 16 years before Cicilline. Following a spirited endorsement of Amo, Kennedy aggressively attacked Regunberg in a local television interview, calling him an “extreme” ideologue whose support for a smaller defense budget would jeopardize Rhode Island jobs ― and even Democrats’ hold on the House seat. (Biden carried the seat by 29 percentage points in 2020.)
“The notion that [Regunberg] would come out against the largest economic driver in the 1st District, the defense economy, left me flabbergasted,” Kennedy said. “The notion that you can be a good Democrat and a liberal, and not also support a strong national defense and good jobs here at home, makes no sense.”
The district’s voters “won’t go wrong with Gabe,” Kennedy said.
The results of the primary are also a disappointment for Latinos hoping to see either Matos or Cano make history as the state’s first Latino or Latina representative in Congress. Matos, an immigrant from the Dominican Republic, would have been Congress’ first-ever Afro-Latina member. And Cano, a refugee from Colombia, would have been the first-ever Colombian American woman in Congress.
Matos suffered an especially sharp fall in the House race given her level of name recognition and outside backing. Three super PACs, including groups affiliated with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and the pro-choice group EMILY’s List, spent a combined $800,000 in support of Matos’ bid. But she never fully recovered from a July scandal that emerged over the apparent forgery of petition signatures needed to qualify for the ballot.
Cano, who identifies as a progressive, was closest to Regunberg in ideology. Among other positions, she supports the adoption of Medicare for All and a wealth tax.
She had the support of Rhode Island’s teachers unions and many of her colleagues in the legislature, but lacked the funds to match her competitors’ advertising strength.
Nonetheless, the timing of the special primary election may be a silver lining for both Cano and Matos. They will have the chance to resume their jobs as state senator and lieutenant governor, respectively.
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Dozens of House Democrats called for former President Donald Trump’s Jan. 6 criminal trial to be televised live, arguing the historic nature of the case makes it essential the public hear from witnesses and see evidence in real-time.
Three dozen lawmakers sent the letter Thursday to Judge Roslynn Mauskopf, who oversees the nation’s federal courts. The group includes key members of the House select committee that investigated the origins of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol, including chair Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) and Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) and Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.)
“Given the historic nature of the charges brought forth in these cases, it is hard to imagine a more powerful circumstance for televised proceedings,” the letter reads. “If the public is to fully accept the outcome, it will be vitally important for it to witness, as direct as possible, how the trials are conducted, the strength of the evidence adduced and the credibility of witnesses.”
It’s unclear how likely a televised trial would be.
Federal rules usually prohibit the taking of photographs or video inside a courtroom, hence the sketch of Trump’s not guilty plea Thursday. News organizations had asked for broadcast equipment to be allowed inside the courtroom when Trump was arraigned in a separate case in New York related to hush money payments made to the porn star Stormy Daniels, but a judge rejected those requests in April (a small number of photographers were given a few minutes to capture photos in that instance).
Trump was indicted by a federal grand jury on four federal charges Tuesday. Prosecutors charged the former president with a multi-pronged conspiracy to stay in power after he lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges.
Special counsel Jack Smith laid out the outline of the government’s case in a 45-page indictment that claims Trump knew his claims of widespread voter fraud were false, but was determined to remain in power by crafting an “intense national atmosphere of mistrust and anger.”
Lawmakers pointed to that ongoing mistrust of the judicial system in their letter Thursday, calling on the Judicial Conference to make sure information was quickly relayed to the public during Trump’s trial.
“It is imperative the Conference ensures timely access to accurate and reliable information surrounding these cases and all of their proceedings, given the extraordinary national importance to our democratic institutions and the need for transparency,” the letter reads.
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The two major factors shaping the 2022 midterm elections collided in tumultuous fashion on Tuesday morning.
First came the government report that inflation last month had increased faster than economists had expected or President Joe Biden had hoped. The announcement triggered a sharp fall in the stock market, the worst day on Wall Street in two years.
That same afternoon, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina introduced legislation that would impose a nationwide ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
The inflation report captured this year’s most powerful tailwind for Republicans: widespread dissatisfaction with Biden’s management of the economy. Graham’s announcement captured this year’s strongest Democratic tailwind: widespread unease about abortion rights.
The shift in the campaign debate away from Biden’s management of the economy and toward the GOP’s priorities on abortion and other issues has been the principal factor improving Democratic prospects since earlier this summer. But the unexpectedly pessimistic inflation report—which showed soaring grocery and housing bills overshadowing a steady decline in gasoline prices—was a pointed reminder that the economy remains a formidable threat to Democrats in November.
These two events also underscored how, to an extremely unusual degree, the parties are talking past each other. As the Democratic pollster Molly Murphy told me, 2022 is not an election year when most Americans “agree on what the top priorities [for the country] are” and debate “different solutions” from the two major parties.
Instead, surveys show that Republican voters stress inflation, the overall condition of the economy, crime, and immigration. For Democratic voters, the top priorities are abortion rights, the threats to democracy created by former President Donald Trump and his movement, gun control, climate change, and health care.
Few questions may shape the November results as much as whether the issues Democrats are stressing continue to motivate roughly as many voters as Republicans’ preferred issues. Gene Ulm, a Republican pollster, told me he believes that pocketbook strains will ultimately prove decisive for most voters, particularly those without a college degree. Those voters, he added, are basically saying, “‘I am worried about putting food on the table, and you are talking to me about all this other crap.’”
Yet there is no question that Democratic candidates are performing far above the consistently bleak public assessments of the economy, and especially Biden’s management of it. In one sense, that’s not shocking: Over the past few decades, voters’ economic assessments have become less predictive of election results, in large part because those judgments are themselves so heavily shaped by partisanship. But even in light of that trend, the disconnect between voters’ views on Biden’s economic management and their willingness to support Democratic candidates for the House and Senate remains striking.
Biden has positive trends in the economy to celebrate, particularly robust job growth. He’s been cutting ribbons at a steady procession of infrastructure projects and manufacturing-plant openings (like last week’s groundbreaking for an Intel semiconductor facility in Ohio) tied to the tax incentives and direct spending from the infrastructure, climate, and semiconductor bills that he’s signed. Those economic milestones—yesterday, for instance, the White House touted $85 billion in new private investments for electric-vehicle production since Biden took office—will likely be a political asset for him in 2024, especially in the pivotal states across the industrial Midwest. But those accomplishments won’t necessarily sway voters this November, and in any case, all of these favorable trends for now are being overshadowed in most households by the persistent pain of higher prices on consumer goods.
Even before this week’s inflation report, voters gave Biden an extremely negative grade for his economic performance. In an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Institute poll released last week, just 34 percent of those surveyed said that his actions have helped the economy, while 57 percent said they have hurt it. Not surprisingly, that discontent was most intense among Republicans and also among white voters without a college degree (a stunning 76 percent of whom said Biden’s actions had hurt the economy.) But that belief was also shared by 63 percent of independents, 55 percent of Generation Z and Millennial voters, 47 percent of nonwhite voters, and even 16 percent of people who voted for him in 2020.
However, the share in each of these groups that gave Biden an overall positive mark on his job performance was consistently five to nine percentage points higher than those who believed his actions had helped the economy. And the share in each group that said they intend to support House Democrats in the November election was higher still—enough to give Democrats a narrow lead on that crucial question. Independents, for example, were split evenly on which party they intend to support in November, even though they were negative on Biden’s economic performance by more than two to one.
This stark pattern points to another consequential anomaly in the 2022 polling so far. One of the most powerful modern trends in congressional races is a correlation between voters’ attitudes toward the president and their willingness to vote for candidates from his party. Virtually all voters who “strongly disapprove” of a president have voted against his party’s candidates in recent House and Senate elections. In 2018, two-thirds of voters who even “somewhat disapproved” of Trump voted for Democratic House candidates, according to exit polls. In 2010, two-thirds of voters who “somewhat disapproved” of Barack Obama likewise voted for Republican candidates.
By contrast, in the Marist survey, and another recent national poll by the Pew Research Center, Democrats led slightly among those who “somewhat disapproved” of Biden—a stunning result.
Murphy told me this disconnect has been evident since the outset of Biden’s presidency: Even when his approval numbers were high during his first months, she said of her polling, that didn’t lift other Democratic candidates, so she’s not entirely surprised that his decline hasn’t tugged them down. But Murphy, like others in the party, believes that concerns about Republicans—centered on their abortion-restriction efforts, their nomination of extremist and election-denying candidates, and their unflagging defense of Trump—also explain why Democratic candidates are consistently running ahead of Biden’s approval rating.
“It should have been pretty easy for [Republicans] to put these races away, given how concerned voters are about the economy and inflation,” Murphy told me. Now, she said, “I do think they are having to go back to the drawing board.”
Graham’s abortion legislation is certain to benefit Democratic efforts to shift voter focus from what Biden has done to what Republicans might do if returned to power. In a press conference, Graham flatly declared, “If we take back the House and Senate, I’ll assure you we’ll have a vote on our bill.” Although many Republican senators and candidates quickly distanced themselves from his proposal, his pledge meant that every Democratic Senate candidate can plausibly argue that creating a GOP majority in the chamber will ensure a congressional vote on a national abortion ban.
Dan Sena, the former executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, who now consults for many party House candidates, told me that the abortion fight’s biggest impact will be to inspire higher turnout from liberal-leaning and young voters. Abortion, he said, “has energized a group of people that we saw in 2018 and we saw in 2020 that traditionally don’t participate in midterm elections and are much more motivated by the cultural fight.”
Yet few Democrats believe that the political threat from inflation and general unease about the economy is behind them in this election cycle. In focus groups, Ulm, the GOP pollster, told me, “We hear more gripes about groceries than anything.” Sena largely agrees: “Jobs and paychecks still matter, pal,” he said.
One Democratic pollster, who asked not to be identified while discussing private campaign research, told me that inflation and crime—the principal issues Republicans are stressing on the campaign trail—remain tangible and immediate concerns in swing districts. In House district polling, the pollster said, the firm often asks voters whether they worry more that Democratic policies are fueling inflation and crime or that Republicans are too extreme on abortion and too soft on the January 6 insurrection. On balance, the pollster told me, most respondents in swing districts say they worry more about Democratic policies.
Yes, the pollster said, the Supreme Court abortion decision, the revelations about Trump from the House January 6 committee hearings, and the Justice Department’s investigation into his stockpiling of classified documents have energized and awakened Democratic voters. But, the pollster added, it’s not as if everyone has decided that abortion and January 6 are more important than crime and inflation.
Strategists and pollsters on both sides believe that these diverging agendas could intensify one of the most powerful trends in modern American politics: the class inversion in which Democrats are running stronger among white voters with college degrees and Republicans are gaining ground among white voters without them, as well as among blue-collar Latino voters.
In white-collar America, inflation may be more of an inconvenience than an existential threat, which provides space for voters to prioritize their values on issues such as abortion or Trump’s threat to democracy. In blue-collar America, where inflation often presents more difficult daily choices and sacrifices, abortion and the fate of democracy may be less salient, even among those who agree with Democrats on those issues. In the Marist poll, twice as many white voters without a college degree picked inflation over abortion as their top concern in November, while slightly more college-educated white voters picked abortion than inflation.
Even with inflation at its highest level in 40 years, Republicans appear unlikely to significantly cut into such key Democratic constituencies as college-educated white voters, young people, and residents of large metropolitan areas. And even such a seismic shock as the Supreme Court abortion decision may not significantly loosen the Republican hold on white women without a college education. Although there may be some movement around the edges (inflation, for instance, could help Republicans gain among Latino voters), the biggest story of 2022 may be how closely it follows the lines of geographic and demographic polarization that the 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections have engraved.
As in those contests, a handful of competitive swing states (Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) will tip the precarious national balance of power between red and blue areas that now behave more like separate nations than different sections. The November elections seem likely to demonstrate again that the U.S. remains locked in a struggle between two coalitions that hold utterly antithetical visions of America’s future—yet remain almost equal in size.
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Ronald Brownstein
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