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Posted on: February 17, 2026, 08:42h.
Last updated on: February 18, 2026, 05:50h.
- Bitwise, GraniteShares throw hats into prediction markets ETF ring
- Funds appear similar to previously pitched products
- SEC hasn’t approved these ETFs
The prediction markets industry is fiercely competitive and the same is true of the race to launch exchange funds (ETFs) tied to political event contracts.
Just days after Roundhill Investments filed plans with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for ETFs that would hold event contracts based on the 2026 midterm and 2028 presidential elections, rivals Bitwise Investments and GraniteShares followed suit with filings for competing products.
Under the PredictionShares brand, Bitwise filed for ETFs based on either potential outcome of the 2028 presidential election — Democrat or Republican — as well as four funds based on which party will control the two houses of Congress following the November midterms. The filing for the PredictionShares presidential derivatives ETFs implies the funds won’t be rolled forward after the 2028 election.
Following the conclusion of the 2028 Presidential Election and the settlement of the Democratic President Contracts pursuant to their terms, the Fund will liquidate its positions, settle any outstanding liabilities and will distribute all remaining assets to holders of Fund Shares,” according to the regulatory document. “To the extent that a member of the Democratic Party is not the winner of the 2028 Presidential Election, the Fund will lose substantially all of its value and such distribution should be expected to be de minimis. Following this distribution, the Fund will wind up its affairs and terminate.”
It’s possible Bitwise will later alter the structure of the PredictionShares ETFs, assuming they’re approved, to efficiently transition to the next election cycles as Roundhill indicated it would do in its filing with the SEC. The commission hasn’t approved any of the political prediction market ETFs.
Examining the GraniteShares Filing
GraniteShares also has its eyes on election-based yes/no event contracts, which are likely to experience surges in volumes as this year’s primary and general election seasons evolve.
That asset manager wants to bring Democrat and Republican presidential and congressional election ETFs to market. Its filing with the SEC indicates that if its ETFs are approved, they won’t terminate after Election Days 2026 and 2028. Rather, the 2026 House and Senate funds will be reconfigured for the 2028 elections and the presidential ETFs will be altered to hold derivatives based on the 2032 election.
Regardless of issuer, all of the proposed political prediction markets ETFs tap into the zero sum nature of politics. Translation: The ETFs tied to the losing party will basically be worthless after Election Day. As just one example…
“The GraniteShares Democratic Senate ETF’s investment objective is to provide capital appreciation to investors in the event that the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate following the conclusion of the U.S. Senate Elections taking place on November 3, 2026,” according to that issuer’s filing. “IN THE EVENT THAT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY HAS NOT WON CONTROL OF THE U.S. SENATE FOLLOWING THE ELECTIONS TAKING PLACE ON NOVEMBER 3, 2026, the Fund will lose substantially all of its value.”
No Indications About Contract Sources
As was the case with the Roundhill filing, neither Bitwise nor GraniteShares provided clues as to which exchanges they’ll work with to source political event contracts, though the issuers noted they’ll work with Designated Contract Markets (DCMs).
Kalshi and Polymarket are the dominant prediction market operators, but by way of owning ForecastEx, Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ: IBKR) is a major player in the political derivatives niche.
If the ETFs are approved, it’s possible issuers will partner with multiple yes/no exchanges. More details are likely to emerge as the regulatory process moves forward.
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Todd Shriber
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