Tag: Dunning-Kruger Effect

Few psychological rules have as high a public profile as the Dunning-Kruger effect. Way back in 1999, David Dunning and Justin Kruger showed that the people who were least competent at a given task were also the most confident in their abilities. Meanwhile, the most skilled are the most unsure.

In the 26 years since Dunning and Kruger published their landmark paper, scientists have debated the details of the findings. But the public has run with it. It’s not hard to see why. A theory that states the dumbest among are often the loudest and most overconfident seems to explain so much about modern life.

Plus, it’s a handy grenade to throw in a social-media fight. Search “Dunning-Kruger Effect” online and you’ll find huge numbers of people labeling those they disagree as obvious cases of the effect in action.

It’s a satisfying way to dunk on your opponents. But there’s one big problem with using the Dunning-Kruger as a weapon in this way. David Dunning himself insists it’s a misunderstanding. 

You probably misuse the Dunning-Kruger Effect

On a recent episode of the ZME Science podcast, host Corey Powell sums up the popular understanding of the Dunning-Kruger effect this way: “Stupid people don’t know they’re stupid.” Is that a correct understanding of the theory that bears his name, he asked David Dunning. 

As pleasant as it might be to write off those you disagree with as hopelessly dim and deluded, the Dunning-Kruger effect isn’t actually about anyone’s general intelligence, Dunning explained. It’s about what happens when you gain just a little knowledge in a particular domain.

When you first start learning a bit about a particular subject, you’re highly likely to overestimate your understanding. That applies to all of us, not just those with less than sky-high IQ scores. 

“It’s not about general stupidity. It’s about each and every one of us, sooner or later,” he says. “We each have an array of expertise, and we each have an array of places we shouldn’t be stepping into, thinking we know just as much as the experts.” 

A warning, not an insult 

Dunking on others’ oblivious idiocy, as tempting as it can be, isn’t actually the takeaway message of the Dunning-Kruger effect according to Dunning. Instead, it’s to be mindful of your own overconfidence, especially in areas where you don’t have deep domain expertise. 

The point isn’t to help you spot others’ stupidity. It’s to alert you to the constant potential for your own. Or as Dunning puts it: “Our ignorance is an everyday companion that we will all carry for the rest of our lives.” 

That might seem bleak, but Dunning actually sounds pretty upbeat in the interview. How can that be? Because, he says, while there’s no way to outrun the human tendency towards overconfidence, there are steps you can take to guard against it. 

7 ways to avoid falling prey to the Dunning-Kruger effect 

The podcast discussion doesn’t delve deeply into how to do that. But elsewhere, Dunning and other psychologists have offered plenty of suggestions: 

• Lean on feedback. “A lot of the issues or problems we get into, we get into because we’re doing it all by ourselves,” Dunning told Vox. “If we consult, chat, schmooze with other people, often we learn things or get different perspectives that can be quite helpful.” Stress test your ideas and knowledge by talking to other people.  
• Imagine the worst-case scenario. “Ask yourself where you could be wrong if the decision is an important one. Or how can your plans end up in disaster? Think that through—it matters,” Dunning suggests.
• Think in probabilities. Citing the work of fellow psychologist Philip Tetlock, Dunning observes that people who think “in terms of probabilities tend to do much better in forecasting and anticipating what is going to happen in the world than people who think in certainties.” So don’t ask, “Will X happen?” but instead, “What’s the probability X will happen?”
• Apply the 10-Percent Principle. Psychologist Adam Grant agrees that being smart and educated doesn’t protect you from overconfidence. In fact, it can make it more likely. His solution is the 10-Percent Principle: “Be 10 percent more skeptical of people you agree with—and 10 percent more charitable to people you disagree with.”  
• Know when to trust your gut. Dunning believes slower decisions are usually better decisions. But according to the late Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman, you can trust your gut in situations that meet three conditions: the area you are looking at is actually predictable (so yes to chess, no to the stock market), you have a lot of practice, and you have received firm, fast feedback in the past. 
• Approach problems like a scientist. Scientists are trained to look for evidence to disprove their hypotheses, which acts as a brake on the Dunning-Kruger effect. But you don’t have to be a scientist to think like one. Grant also suggests more of us should “look for reasons why you might be wrong, not just reasons why you must be right” and approach questions with curiosity rather than a desire to prove ourselves right. 
• Practice saying “I don’t know.” Research (and titans of industry) say intellectual humility boosts both IQ and EQ. It also helps you avoid overconfidence, so Dunning suggests practicing saying “I don’t know.” MIT’s Hal Gregersen advises asking yourself, “What will I be wrong about today?” each morning. It will act as a healthy reminder that you are just as likely to fall prey to the Dunning-Kruger effect as anyone. 

News flash: You’re overconfident too 

The Dunning-Kruger effect has been a frequently invoked term for nearly three decades. That doesn’t mean most people understand it correctly. It often gets used as a clever way to call those you disagree with dumb. But according to one of the authors of the original study, a better use of the effect is as a reminder that we’re all prone to stupidity. 

If you remember that tendency, you’re far more likely to correct for it.