Tag: bitcoin momentum

Bitcoin Lacks Fresh Momentum As Realized Cap Growth Still Declining

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth indicator has continued to decline recently, a sign new capital inflows lack momentum.

Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth Has Been Heading Down Recently

As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth has been trending lower recently. The “Realized Cap” is an on-chain capitalization model for BTC that calculates its total value by assuming the value of each individual token is equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.

This is unlike the usual market cap, which simply calculates the total valuation of the asset by multiplying the number of tokens in circulation with the current spot price, considering the latest value of the cryptocurrency to be the one value for all coins.

In short, what the Realized Cap represents is the amount of capital that the Bitcoin investors as a whole used to purchase the asset’s supply. On the other hand, the market cap is the value that the investors are carrying in the present.

The Realized Cap itself isn’t the indicator of interest in the current discussion, but rather the Realized Cap Growth, measuring the 365-day changes occurring in the Realized Cap.

Changes in the indicator naturally reflect the amount of capital exiting or entering the cryptocurrency. In other words, the Realized Cap Growth contains information about the asset’s netflow.

Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 7-day and 59-day moving averages (MAs) of the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth over the last few years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth has witnessed both its 7-day and 59-day MAs reverse down recently, with the former line crossing under the latter.

The trend indicates that growth in the Realized Cap has been slowing down during the recent market downturn. “This suggests Bitcoin is lacking momentum from new cost basis inflows,” noted the analyst.

With the 7-day MA falling below the 59-day MA, the indicator is now flagging the current market to be in a “bear phase.” The last time this signal maintained for an extended duration was alongside BTC’s decline over the first few months of 2025. It now remains to be seen how long momentum from new capital inflows will stay weak for Bitcoin this time around.

In some other news, the Bitcoin short-term holders are still under a notable amount of stress, as CryptoQuant author IT Tech has pointed out in an X post.

Short-term holders (STHs) are defined as the Bitcoin buyers who got into the market during the past 155 days. Despite the rebound BTC has seen since its November low, STHs are still in a loss of 10%.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $92,400, down 1.5% over the last 24 hours.

Keshav Verma

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December 10, 2025
Bitcoin Must Break Key Supply Clusters To Regain ATH Momentum – Watch These Levels

Bitcoin has rallied more than 12% since last week’s sharp drop to the $80,000 low, offering the market a brief moment of relief after an intense period of capitulation. Despite this rebound, fear and uncertainty continue to dominate sentiment, especially following what analysts describe as the largest short-term holder capitulation in Bitcoin’s history.

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This wave of realized losses—fast, aggressive, and record-breaking—has left many investors questioning whether the recent recovery is sustainable or simply a temporary bounce in a broader downtrend.

According to new data from Glassnode, the path ahead remains challenging. Analysts explain that Bitcoin must break above the major supply clusters created by top buyers earlier in the cycle if it is to regain meaningful upward momentum.

These clusters represent areas where a large number of investors previously bought at higher prices and may now look to exit at breakeven, increasing the likelihood of heavy sell-side pressure as BTC climbs.

Bitcoin Faces Critical Supply Barriers

Glassnode reports that Bitcoin is now approaching two major supply clusters that will play a decisive role in determining whether the recent rebound can evolve into a sustained recovery. The first cluster sits between $93,000 and $96,000, while the second—much larger and more structurally important—spans $100,000 to $108,000.

These zones were formed by heavy buying activity earlier in the cycle and represent areas where many investors are currently underwater or sitting near breakeven.

Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap | Source: Glassnode

Because of this, Glassnode notes that these ranges typically act as strong resistance, as recent buyers who endured the latest drawdown may choose to sell once the price returns to their entry levels. This dynamic can create temporary supply walls, slowing down momentum even in moments of aggressive recovery.

Bitcoin’s ability to break through these clusters will determine whether it can re-establish a path toward a new all-time high or remain trapped under heavy distribution pressure. The market is now entering a critical phase, with traders closely watching how BTC behaves as it approaches these levels. A clean breakout would signal renewed confidence, while rejection could signal that the broader corrective structure is not yet over.

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Testing Support After a Sharp Multi-Week Selloff

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a market attempting to stabilize after one of the most aggressive drawdowns of the cycle. BTC has rebounded to the $91,500 area following a deep wick to the $80K region last week, signaling that buyers are finally stepping in at key support. This rebound coincides with a strong weekly candle showing a long lower shadow, a classic sign of demand absorption during heavy selloffs.

BTC consolidates around key level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

However, despite this bounce, the broader structure remains fragile. The price is trading below the 50-week moving average, a level that previously acted as reliable support throughout the bull phase. Losing this dynamic support earlier in the month was a significant technical break, and BTC is now attempting to reclaim it from below—typically a challenging move that often acts as resistance.

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The 100-week moving average around the mid-$80K region has proven critical, halting the decline and serving as the primary area where buyers defended the trend. As long as BTC holds above this zone, the broader market avoids confirming a deeper macro reversal.

Volume remains elevated, reflecting capitulation-level activity, and the market is now in a decisive phase. A sustained close above $92K–$94K would strengthen recovery prospects, while rejection would risk another retest of the $80K support.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Sebastian Villafuerte

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November 28, 2025
Bitcoin Futures Pressure Score Hits 18%: Shorts Are Losing Momentum

Bitcoin is once again at a decisive moment after several days of tight consolidation around the $110K level. Bulls are making an effort to defend this critical support, while also eyeing the $113K resistance as the next key barrier. A breakout above it could provide the momentum needed for BTC to retest higher supply zones and reignite bullish sentiment. However, the market remains fragile, with volatility and fear weighing heavily on investor confidence.

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Top analyst Axel Adler provided important context from the derivatives market. According to Adler, the Bitcoin Futures Pressure Score currently stands at 18%, which is considered low to moderate and closer to the neutral zone. This suggests that there is no overwhelming short pressure from leverage at this time. In practical terms, futures traders are not aggressively building short positions, nor are they significantly adding to long exposure.

This balance reflects a cautious market environment where participants are waiting for a catalyst to determine direction. Until then, Bitcoin’s battle between $110K support and $113K resistance will remain the focal point, setting the stage for the next major move in either direction.

Bitcoin Futures In Neutral Mode

According to Adler, the current state of the futures market paints a picture of caution rather than conviction. With the Pressure Score at 18%, the indicator suggests a neutral environment where traders are neither aggressively building long positions nor stacking shorts. Adler explains that this lack of strong directional signals reflects an indecisive market, where participants are waiting for external catalysts before committing capital.

Bitcoin Open Interest Pressure Score | Source: Axel Adler

The Pressure Score becomes particularly important in identifying potential downside risks. Adler notes that when the metric rises toward the 30–40% range, it indicates that shorts are being built up at an accelerated pace. In such cases, open interest increases faster than usual, creating conditions that often lead to sudden price dumps. For now, Bitcoin is not in that danger zone, but the market remains highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment.

What adds to the current uncertainty is the weakening US labor market, which has fueled speculation about the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. Any surprise in economic data or Fed guidance could easily tip the balance, triggering volatility across crypto markets. As investors digest these signals, Bitcoin is expected to trade with increased choppiness in the coming days, with bulls and bears closely monitoring the $110K–$113K range as the decisive battleground.

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Technical Insights: Trading Between Key Levels

Bitcoin is currently trading around $112,196, showing a modest recovery after testing lows near $110,000. The chart highlights a consolidation phase, with BTC holding above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $112,102, while the 50-day SMA sits higher at $114,650, acting as immediate resistance. A decisive close above this level could open the path for Bitcoin to retest $116,000 and potentially challenge the major resistance at $123,217, marked by the summer peak.

BTC consolidates below $113K | Source: BTCUSDT Chart on TradingView

On the downside, the 200-day SMA at $101,980 provides a strong layer of support. As long as BTC remains above this level, the broader bullish structure remains intact despite recent volatility. However, repeated failures to break above the 50-day SMA may invite further consolidation, with risks of a retest of the $108,000–$110,000 zone if selling pressure re-emerges.

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Bulls need to reclaim $114,650 to shift momentum toward the $120K region, while bears aim to defend resistance and push the price lower. The coming days are likely to determine whether Bitcoin resumes its broader uptrend or extends its correction.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Sebastian Villafuerte

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September 10, 2025